German Politics

The AfD is a right-wing extremist group, German intelligence agency says
https://www.politico.eu/article/afd-officially-right-wing-extremist-group-germanys-intel-agency-says/
 
Friedrich Merz has emboldened Germany’s far right
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2025/04/friedrich-merz-has-emboldened-germanys-far-right
The incoming chancellor’s coalition compromises leave a lot of space for the AfD. 

China and US Treasuries

Why China won't 'weaponize' its US Treasuries stash
https://www.reuters.com/markets/why-china-wont-weaponize-its-us-treasuries-stash-mcgeever-2025-04-29/
 
How China is quietly diversifying from US Treasuries
https://www.ft.com/content/fdad7e0b-aa23-4b7b-8f1a-fc1d48468631 

US Dollar - Past, Present, and the Future

This time really is different for the dollar, writes Kenneth Rogoff
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/05/05/this-time-really-is-different-for-the-dollar-writes-kenneth-rogoff
The greenback was already in decline. Donald Trump will accelerate the process.

Trump’s Misguided Plan to Weaken the Dollar by Ken Rogoff
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-administration-mar-a-lago-plan-to-weaken-dollar-is-deeply-flawed-by-kenneth-rogoff-2025-05
The so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord, proposed by Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran, aims to reduce the United States’ current-account deficit by weakening the dollar. But this plan is based on a deeply flawed understanding of the relationship between the dollar’s global status and US deindustrialization.

Why a Pact to Weaken the Dollar Makes No Sense
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/08/dollar-trade-trump-exchange-rate-plaza-accord-mar-a-lago-us-treasury-bonds/
A proposal to reprise a Reagan-era currency agreement has serious flaws.

Prepare for the Global Euro by Helene Rey
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eurozone-should-show-economic-leadership-as-the-us-retreats-by-helene-rey-2025-05
After serving as the world's hegemon for decades, the US appears to be renouncing the role by refusing to supply global public goods and eroding confidence in the dollar. This creates an opportunity for the eurozone to capture some of the exorbitant privilege long enjoyed by the US.

Farewell, Ye Mighty Dollar. Was Nice Knowing You.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/05/opinion/weak-us-dollar.html 

Ken Rogoff on Dollar Decline, Debt Worries and Fed Independence
https://youtu.be/kCVqGeWDZdk
Trump vs. the Dollar
https://youtu.be/pT2cohNt6a4
Book Talk: King Dollar with Paul Blustein
https://www.youtube.com/live/QiFaXnOebRQ 

Trump Is Right About Trade Imbalances. Does He Know How to Fix Them?
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/trump-is-right-about-trade-imbalances-does-he-know-how-to-fix-them-96ae3fcb
The great economist John Maynard Keynes once proposed an international system to eliminate trade surpluses and deficits. Now the ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ aims to bring that idea to life.

My recent take:
Dollar collapse: The crisis is no longer just theoretical by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR, The Hill - 04/28/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/5270094-trump-tariffs-dollar-decline/

My 2011 paper:
Jayakumar, V., Weiss, B. Global reserve currency system: Why will the dollar standard give way to a tripolar currency order? Front. Econ. China 6, 92–130 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11459-011-0124-6

The Marriage Market in America

The New Divide in American Marriage
https://www.theatlantic.com/podcasts/archive/2025/04/the-problem-of-finding-a-marriageable-man/682613/
College graduates are marrying at high rates. Everyone else isn’t. 

US Nonfarm Payrolls – Pay Attention to Data Revisions

Initial release of nonfarm payroll numbers may be consistently overstating the health of the U.S. labor market. Compare the 1st release with the 2nd and 3rd revised data releases during the first few months of 2025: 

US Nonfarm Payrolls – Pay Attention to Revised Data

Source: BLS (https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm)

Month	Year	Seasonally adjusted
		Over-the-month change			Revision* in over-the-month change
		1st	2nd	3rd	2nd - 1st	3rd - 2nd	3rd - 1st
Jan.	2025	143	125	111	-18	-14	-32
Feb.	2025	151	117	102	-34	-15	-49
Mar.	2025	228	185		-43
Apr.	2025	177

Related:
Some of America's Most Important Economic Data Is Decaying | Odd Lots Podcast
https://youtu.be/nfgpqVixeIw

Europe's Military-Industrial Complex

Europe Is Racing to Build Its Own Version of the U.S. Military-Industrial Complex
https://www.wsj.com/finance/europe-defense-us-military-industrial-complex-61ea9654
European defense will be reshaped, creating opportunities for industry and investors. 

End of the De Minimis Rule

Trump Ends Chinese Tariff Loophole, Raising the Cost of Online Goods
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/02/business/economy/trump-china-tariffs-de-minimis.html
Supporters say the change is important to stop cheap Chinese goods from entering the U.S. But the decision could drive up prices for goods Americans buy online.
 
How a U.S. Tax Loophole Supercharged China’s Exports
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/02/business/china-tariffs-economy-de-minimis.html
E-commerce trade in small parcels brought Chinese factories to American shoppers. Tariffs are severing the connection.