State of the American Consumer

Consumers Have Powered Through the Pandemic and Inflation—Until Now
https://www.wsj.com/articles/consumers-have-powered-through-the-pandemic-and-inflationuntil-now-11659265202
 
My Take:
How resilient are US consumers? We’ll soon find out | 06/08/22
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3515242-how-resilient-are-us-consumers-well-soon-find-out/ 

Chess Olympiad 2022 - Chennai

Chennai, India's chess capital, welcomes the world (and Carlsen)
https://www.espn.com/chess/story/_/id/34305398/chess-olympiad-2022-chennai-india-capital-welcomes-world-magnus-carlsen 

India’s teen chess champion who beat Magnus Carlsen is riding the wave of a revival nurtured in Chennai
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/3168556/indias-teen-chess-champion-who-beat-magnus-carlsen-riding-wave
 
How did Chennai become India's chess hub?
https://www.dw.com/en/how-did-chennai-become-indias-chess-hub/a-61247320

How India is emerging as a chess powerhouse
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-60497243 

Natural Resource Curse - The Case of Ghana

Ghana’s ‘Success’ Exposes the West’s Toxic Development Model
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/ghana-economic-development-mining-gold-cocoa-oil/ 

Indian Diaspora Gets into Politics

Rishi Sunak's rise signifies the arrival of the Indian diaspora
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Rishi-Sunak-s-rise-signifies-the-arrival-of-the-Indian-diaspora 

US Economy - Growth and Inflation Concerns

Enough with the ‘is this a recession?’ blather
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/29/recession-definition-doesnt-matter-economy-inflation/

Is a recession inevitable?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3572084-is-a-recession-inevitable/
 
Inflation, not recession, is still economic enemy No. 1
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/30/recession-inflation-economic-enemy/
 
The Fed Alone Can’t Slay Inflation
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-alone-cant-slay-inflation-powell-volcker-monetary-policy-productivity-producers-energy-taxes-single-mandate-price-stability-act-11659130530
 
U.S. Economy Transitions to Slower Growth as Inflation Weighs on Consumers
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-employers-labor-costs-inflation-q2-2022-11659061404
 
Retail’s ‘Dark Side’: As Inventory Piles Up, Liquidation Warehouses Are Busy
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/30/business/retail-returns-liquidation.html 

Perception of Rising Crime Hurts NYC

Fear of Rampant Crime Is Derailing New York City’s Recovery
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-is-nyc-safe-crime-stat-reality/ 

Exodus from California

California exodus continues: L.A., San Francisco lead the way
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-07-29/california-exodus-continues-l-a-san-francisco-lead-the-way 

A Tougher Job Market for Young College Graduates

Young US College Graduates Face Tougher Job Market Than Average
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-30/young-us-college-graduates-face-tougher-job-market-than-average 

Corporate Profits - The Last Hurrah?

If the Economy Is Shaky, Why Are Company Profits Still Strong?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/29/business/strong-profits-shaky-economy.html 

Inflationary Pressures Remain Elevated

Consumers kept spending in June even as they remained wary about future
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/29/consumer-spending-june/
 
Pay growth and prices picked up, keeping the Fed on track for rate increases.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/29/business/economy/fed-inflation-wage-growth.html
 
Yellen’s Legacy Is Being Eroded by Inflation
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-29/janet-yellen-s-legacy-is-being-eroded-by-inflation
 
Euro-Zone Inflation Hits Record, Backing Calls for Larger Hikes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-29/euro-zone-inflation-hits-record-backing-calls-for-larger-hikes 

The Downside of High Property Prices

How high property prices can damage the economy
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/07/28/how-high-property-prices-can-damage-the-economy 

Risks Facing the Global Economy

How the German Economic Machine Broke Down
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-german-economy-broke-down-exports-11659019301
 
Why it is too early to say the world economy is in recession
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/07/24/why-it-is-too-early-to-say-the-world-economy-is-in-recession 

IMF on the Global Economic Slowdown
https://blogs.imf.org/2022/07/26/global-economic-growth-slows-amid-gloomy-and-more-uncertain-outlook/ 

Challenges Facing a Caribbean Island

Barbados: The Caribbean is trapped between crushing debt and a climate disaster caused by rich nations. 
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/07/27/magazine/barbados-climate-debt-mia-mottley.html 

The Case for a Third Political Party

Most third parties have failed. Here’s why ours won’t.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/27/forward-party-new-centrist-third/ 

Defining a Recession (in the US)

Identifying Recessions Is More Art Than Science
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-15/are-we-in-a-recession-in-2022-it-s-still-an-economic-judgment-call

Advance Estimate of 2022Q2 GDP
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2022-advance-estimate
 
US Economy Shrinks for a Second Quarter, Raising Recession Odds
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-28/us-economy-shrinks-for-a-second-quarter-raising-recession-odds

If the U.S. Is in a Recession, It’s a Very Strange One
https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-economy-unemployment-jobs-11656947596 

Related:

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/two-consecutive-quarters-negative-us-growth-predict-recession-since-1948-by-robert-j-barro-2022-07

What causes a recession?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2022/what-causes-a-recession/
 
My take: Is a recession inevitable?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3572084-is-a-recession-inevitable/
Some analysts even believe that the U.S. is already in a recession. Given the heightened uncertainty surrounding the near-term economic outlook, there is a need for an objective assessment of the risks and headwinds facing the American economy.
It is helpful to clarify what economists mean by a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of business cycle turning points in the U.S., identifies and dates recessions based on “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”
Besides closely monitoring the “expenditure-side and income-side estimates of real gross domestic product (GDP and GDI)”, NBER also uses a variety of other indicators of real economic activity, including “real personal income less transfers, nonfarm payroll employment, employment as measured by the household survey, real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes, and industrial production.”
It is possible that incoming data initially indicate that the U.S. experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth during the first half of 2022. But it is worth noting that two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, while often a useful rule-of-thumb, is not the official definition of a recession in the U.S. 

Globalization Matters

They Flocked to China for Boom Times. Now They’re Thinking Twice.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/business/economy/china-foreign-business-economy-covid.html

Why Premier League teams are flocking back to Asia
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-62234627

The big mistakes of the anti-globalisers
https://www.ft.com/content/fa1f3a82-99c5-4fb2-8bff-a7e8d3f65849 

My take: Is the current era of globalization coming to an end?

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3263766-is-the-current-era-of-globalization-coming-to-an-end/

Social Media - A Threat to Democracy?

Yes, Social Media Really Is Undermining Democracy
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/social-media-harm-facebook-meta-response/670975/

Inflation Battle: Will the Fed Maintain its Aggressive Stance?

FOMC Statement – July 27, 2022
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20220727a1.pdf
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. 

Powell Smartly Swears Off Guidance But Then Doles Some Out
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-28/fed-meeting-powell-smartly-swears-off-guidance-but-then-doles-some-out

Are Interest Rates at Neutral? Markets Certainly Hope So
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-27/fed-meeting-are-interest-rates-at-neutral-markets-certainly-hope-so

Related:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/27/fed-rate-hike/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/27/business/economy/fed-interest-rate-inflation.html

Why Consumer Confidence Is Key to Bringing Down Inflation

LinkedIn Privacy Settings

You should change these LinkedIn privacy settings now
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/07/26/linkedin-privacy-guide/ 

Inflation Drivers

The changing shape of inflation
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/26/inflation-causes/ 

How Extreme Heat Is Disrupting the Global Economy
https://www.wsj.com/story/how-extreme-heat-is-disrupting-the-global-economy-2a1af974

The Recession Debate Takes Centerstage

MY TAKE: Is a recession inevitable?

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3572084-is-a-recession-inevitable/

What causes a recession?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2022/what-causes-a-recession/

Is Recession Staring Us Down? Already Upon Us? Here’s Why It’s Hard to Say.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/26/business/economy/recession-economy.html

Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/27/business/biden-recession-us-economy.html

What Is Stagflation? What to Know About the Combination of High Inflation and Stagnating Economic Growth

https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-is-stagflation-meaning-explained-global-economy-worldbank-11654723092

Big Tech is bracing for a possible recession, spooking other industries

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/07/23/big-tech-recession-concerns/
 
Investors Bet Fed Will Need to Cut Interest Rates Next Year to Bolster the Economy
https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-bet-fed-will-need-to-cut-interest-rates-next-year-to-bolster-the-economy-11658694486

5 economic forces behind the Fed’s next rate hike decision
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/24/fed-rate-hike-july/
 
The job market is beginning to show cracks
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/22/job-market-slowing-down/

US Housing Market is the Wildcard

US New-Home Sales Fall More Than Forecast to Two-Year Low
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-26/us-new-home-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-to-two-year-low

Housing Affordability Crisis Increases Odds of Recession
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-27/housing-market-prices-could-play-big-role-in-a-recession

Boise’s Housing Market Boomed Early in the Pandemic. Now It Is Cooling Fast.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/boise-housing-market-cooling-down-zoomtowns-11658931254

America’s Housing Crisis
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/07/building-house-expensive-market-inflation-nimby/670596/

My take:
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3572084-is-a-recession-inevitable/
The housing market may prove to be the ultimate wildcard in this economic cycle. The once red-hot housing market is finally starting to cool and, so far, despite rising mortgage rates and easing demand, the odds favor a soft landing in the real estate sector.
But if interest rates were to surge more than expected and if financial conditions were to deteriorate suddenly, the potential for a sharper downturn in real estate activity cannot be ruled out. Investors have an unusually large exposure to the housing market, and any rush to the exit may trigger a sharp home price correction that affects household and financial sector balance sheets and generates real economic pain.

Think Tanks and Politics

Claremont Institute and Trumpism
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/07/24/claremont-john-eastman-trump/ 

In preparation for power, America’s new right builds new institutions
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/07/05/in-preparation-for-power-americas-new-right-builds-new-institutions 

The True Genius of the Singapore Model

The Singapore model: lessons for the new PM from Lee Kwan Yew
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-singapore-model-lessons-for-the-new-pm-from-lee-kwan-yew 

Dysfunctional Politics Threatens America's Future

I used to be optimistic about America’s future. Not anymore.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/25/trump-second-term-threat-us-democracy/ 

Standardized Tests and the Diversity Debate

The LSAT and Other Standardized Tests Are Good for Diversity
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-lsat-and-other-standardized-tests-are-good-for-diversity-law-school-admissions-bias-grutter-v-bollinger-universities-aba-11658658605
Objective measures of ability give my working-class students a shot at going to a top law school. 

Dropping the SATs Opens the Door to More Legacy Students
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-01/dropping-sats-might-mean-more-legacy-admissions-at-harvard
Getting rid of test scores and class rankings will give elite colleges even more latitude to give preference to the offspring of well-heeled alumni.

Elite Colleges’ Quiet Fight to Favor Alumni Children
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/13/us/legacy-admissions-colleges-universities.html
Colleges like Yale and Harvard give a boost to legacy applicants. But with affirmative action under attack, that tradition may become harder to defend. 

For-Profit Colleges

UK PM Race

Rishi Sunak says he is underdog in PM race as ‘forces that be’ want Truss
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/23/rishi-sunak-vows-uk-crisis-footing-becomes-pm

I will be the heir to Margaret Thatcher
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/20/will-heir-margaret-thatcher/

 
Liz Truss’s tax and spending plans sow consternation among economists
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/21/liz-truss-tax-spending-plans-consternation-economists 

A Global History of Modern Science

Horizons: The Global Origins of Modern Science by James Poskett

Supply Constraints - Airlines, Autos, and Housing

The worst crisis for automakers in 50 years has left dealerships with little to sell as prices soar for consumers
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/07/23/chip-shortage-detroit-manufacturing/
 
Airlines tried shifting blame, but they’re the biggest cause of delays
https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2022/07/23/airline-delays-summer-cancellations/ 

We Need to Keep Building Houses, Even if No One Wants to Buy
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/23/business/housing-market-crisis-supply.html

Proposals to Fix Border Woes in the US and UK

UK
Our asylum system is broken. This is my ten-point plan to fix it by RISHI SUNAK
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/23/asylum-system-broken-ten-point-plan-fix/
Related:
Refugees pour into Ireland as Dublin blames Britain’s Rwanda policy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/07/23/refugees-pour-ireland-dublin-blames-britains-rwanda-policy/

USA

The Solution to US Border Woes Is No Secret
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-21/biden-and-amlo-know-the-solution-to-u-s-border-woes-is-no-secret 

Climate Change - Scientific and Economic Issues

Do these heat waves mean climate change is happening faster than expected?
https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/07/21/1056291/do-these-heatwaves-mean-climate-change-is-worse-than-we-thought/
General warming predictions are still on track, but recent heat waves are a stress test for the modeling of extreme events.

The Science of Climate Change Explained: Facts, Evidence and Proof
https://www.nytimes.com/article/climate-change-global-warming-faq.html

Extreme Heat Is Making the Fastest-Growing US Cities Unlivable
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2022/07/extreme-heat-wave-texas-arizona-urban-growth-unlivable-cities/

War and Warming Upend Global Energy Supplies and Amplify Suffering
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/20/climate/global-energy-crisis-climate-war.html 

GenZ Labor Force Participation

How Gen Z teens accidentally blew up the myth of the lazy millennial
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/22/millennials-genz-teen-jobs/ 

Related:

Nearly a Third of Gen Z Is Living at Home (and They Plan to Stay)
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/21/realestate/adult-children-living-at-home.html

UK's Summer Travel Chaos

Queues, cancellations, chaos: what has gone wrong at Heathrow?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/23/queues-cancellations-chaos-what-has-gone-wrong-at-heathrow
 
Long delays at Dover are fault of Brexit, claim French
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/07/23/long-long-delays-expected-port-dover/ 

Travel chaos is ‘the new normal’ after Brexit, British tourists are warned
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/23/travel-chaos-is-the-new-normal-after-brexit-british-tourists-are-warned

ECB Raises Rates

European Central Bank raises interest rates amid inflation
https://www.dw.com/en/european-central-bank-raises-interest-rates-amid-inflation/a-62546810 

Joe Biden's Disappointing Presidency

Why Joe Biden failed
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/americas/north-america/2022/07/adam-tooze-why-joe-biden-failed
In just 18 months, his ambitious agenda has been demolished – along with his popularity. Where did the president go wrong? 

Impact of Higher Interest Rates

Interest-Rate Pain from Higher Inflation Has Barely Begun
https://www.wsj.com/articles/interest-rate-pain-from-higher-inflation-has-barely-begun-11658327626
Stocks, houses, corporate borrowers and the federal Treasury may not be ready for a world of much higher real interest rates
 
Related:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-needs-to-act-like-the-tortoise-not-the-hare-monetary-policy-tightening-volatility-interest-rates-fomc-friedman-11658331036 

Yacht Sales are Booming Worldwide

Luxury ships attract outrage and political scrutiny. The ultra-rich are buying them in record numbers.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/07/25/the-haves-and-the-have-yachts 

Italy's Economic Woes

Italy Is Haunted by the Pain of Past Economic Crises
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/20/business/italy-economy.html 

Powell's Optimism Will be Tested

Powell’s Econ-101 Lesson Presents Best-Case Inflation Scenario
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-20/powell-s-econ-101-lesson-presents-best-case-inflation-scenario 

Impact of the Strong US Dollar

Why a Strong Dollar Is a Double-Edged Sword for the U.S. Economy

Americans Who Can’t Afford Homes Are Moving to Europe Instead
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-20/americans-moving-to-europe-housing-prices-and-strong-dollar-fuel-relocations 

How the Path to Homeownership Runs Through Mexico
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/25/realestate/homeownership-san-diego-tijuana-mexico.html

Upheaval in Global Energy Markets

War and Warming Upend Global Energy Supplies and Amplify Suffering
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/20/climate/global-energy-crisis-climate-war.html 

Europe is Not Built for Hot Weather

It’s so hot in Europe that roads are literally buckling
https://www.vox.com/2022/7/20/23270092/europe-uk-heat-wave-roads-trains-climate-change

Why do Britain’s roads melt and its rails buckle in heat?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/19/why-does-britains-tarmac-melt-and-its-rails-buckle-in-heat

Britain Is Melting
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/20/opinion/britain-heatwave-conservatives.html 

Sri Lanka's Epic Crisis

Sri Lanka’s crisis: Can the South Asian economy break from the past and find a route to stability?
https://theconversation.com/sri-lankas-crisis-can-the-south-asian-economy-break-from-the-past-and-find-a-route-to-stability-187228

Out of Cash and Out of Fuel, Sri Lanka Runs on Patience
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/world/asia/sri-lanka-economy.html
 
Inside Sri Lanka’s Devastating Economic Crisis
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/18/sri-lanka-economic-fuel-crisis-mass-protests-wickremesinghe-rajapaksa-politics/ 

How the Rajapaksa family fell after 15 years at the top in Sri Lanka
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/13/how-the-rajapaksa-family-fell-after-15-years-at-the-top-in-sri-lanka
 
A brief history of the rise, fall of Sri Lanka's president
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/a-brief-history-of-the-rise-fall-of-sri-lankas-president/2022/07/12/577d2cc6-023d-11ed-8beb-2b4e481b1500_story.html 

China Made a Failed Bet on Sri Lanka’s Rajapaksa Family
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/13/china-sri-lanka-rajapaksa-family-corruption/

European Heat Waves - The New Norm

Why Europe Is Becoming a Heat Wave Hot Spot
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/18/climate/europe-heat-wave-science.html
 
Britain sees hottest day on record — with mercury set to rise further
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/18/heat-wave-uk-temperatures-40c-record/
Yes, Britain had a heatwave in 1976. No, it was nothing like the crisis we’re in now
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/19/britain-heatwave-1976-crisis-summer-heat 

Global Housing Boom is Fading

Housing Boom Fades World-Wide as Interest Rates Climb
https://www.wsj.com/articles/housing-boom-fades-world-wide-as-interest-rates-climb-11658142000 

Economic Mismanagement in Mexico

Mexico’s Leader Says Poverty Is His Priority. But His Policies Hurt the Poor.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/18/world/americas/mexico-economy-poverty.html 

Are We Too Obsessed With Economic Growth?

This Pioneering Economist Says Our Obsession with Growth Must End
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/07/18/magazine/herman-daly-interview.html
Related:
https://www.newstatesman.com/environment/2022/06/end-economic-growth-inevitable 

DeFi And Degrowth: Or How Not to Fix Capitalism
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-27/defi-and-degrowth-may-be-fashionable-but-they-aren-t-profitable-or-wise 

Corporate Lobbying and Politics

Uber broke laws, duped police and secretly lobbied governments, leak reveals
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/jul/10/uber-files-leak-reveals-global-lobbying-campaign
 
Macron defends his support for Uber after leak of company files
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/12/france-uber-leak-macron-parliament-inquiry/ 

Free Speech at US Universities

How to Fix the Bias Against Free Speech on Campus
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/american-university-investigation-abortion-college-free-speech/670540/ 

China's Growing Role in Africa

A Chinese port in Nigeria will change the world economy
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/A-Chinese-port-in-Nigeria-will-change-the-world-economy 

What the U.S. Still Doesn’t Get About Countering China
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/07/g-7-infrastructure-investment-biden-china-africa/
Self-interest, not altruism, is driving Beijing to invest in the global south.

High Inflation Exacerbates the Affordability Crisis

Inflation Has Unmasked the Depths of Our Affordability Crisis by Ezra Klein
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/17/opinion/inflation-prices-affordability.html
 
Workers are picking up extra jobs just to pay for gas and food
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/17/inflation-wages-extra-jobs/
 
Health care and higher education: Key drivers of long-term inflation by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR - 01/31/22| The Hill
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/591995-health-care-and-higher-education-key-drivers-of-long-term-inflation/

The Strong Dollar Problem

The Dollar Is Extremely Strong, Pushing Down the World
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/07/16/business/strong-dollar.html

Is the dollar about to take a turn?
https://www.ft.com/content/6ea4a7ee-989a-4771-a7f6-50dc8e046863
 
Strong Dollar Always Clobbers Developing Nations
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-27/strong-dollar-always-clobbers-developing-nations
 
The Strong Dollar Is a Vote of Confidence in America
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-20/the-strong-dollar-is-a-vote-of-confidence-in-america

Soaring dollar could help Fed in fight against inflation

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/17/dollar-inflation-global-economy/

Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/opinion/euro-dollar-fed-ecb.html 

Agricultural Revolution in Asia

Asia's agricultural revolution: planting a high-tech future
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Feeding-Asia/Asia-s-agricultural-revolution-planting-a-high-tech-future
 
A Cautionary Tale:
Sri Lanka’s organic farming disaster, explained
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/7/15/23218969/sri-lanka-organic-fertilizer-pesticide-agriculture-farming 

Francis Fukuyama on Liberalism

 

Edtech Battle Heats Up

UPDATE: How a teaching app feted by Silicon Valley was left chasing the Indian dream

https://www.ft.com/content/8d998d44-3937-4931-8ee1-f963f6a8b253
Byju’s rode a wave of investor enthusiasm to a $22bn valuation. But questions over its rapid expansion have clouded its future

Indian and U.S. edtech companies battle for global dominance

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Spotlight/Indian-and-U.S.-edtech-companies-battle-for-global-dominance 

Related:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/how-indian-tutors-are-making-millions-off-anxiety/2022/07/18/8b67f030-06f6-11ed-80b6-43f2bfcc6662_story.html 

Voters Perception of Economic Conditions Matters

Voters See a Bad Economy, Even if They’re Doing OK
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/business/economy/inflation-economy-polling.html 

"Economists have long studied the role of consumer sentiment, which can be driven by media narratives and indicators unrepresentative of the broader economy, like certain grocery prices or shortages of particular goods. At least in theory, economic pessimism can become self-fulfilling, as consumers pull back their spending, leading to layoffs and, ultimately, to a recession".

People Have Money but Feel Glum—What Does That Mean for the Economy?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/people-have-money-but-feel-glumwhat-does-that-mean-for-economy-11657808195
 
CPI Doesn’t Capture the True Cost of Living in Trump Country
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cpi-doesnt-capture-true-cost-of-living-trump-country-healthcare-housing-rental-inflation-prices-11657898754

Expenses have risen much faster for low- and middle-income families in the counties he carried.

My take - Tampa Bay Economy - Summer 2022

https://www.ut.edu/uploadedFiles/Academics/Business/Economics/TBE%20Summer%202022.pdf

Stock Market May Fall Further

Stock Market Drop Accelerated as Recession Seemed More Likely
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/15/business/stock-market-recession-half-year.html 

Zero-Covid Policy Hurts China’s Economy

China’s Economy Hits a Slump as Covid Policy Takes a Toll
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/business/economy/china-economy-slows.html
Related:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/14/china-gdp-economy-covid-lockdown/ 

High Inflation Remains a Concern

Inflation Is Even Worse If You Measure It the Proper Way
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-15/inflation-is-even-worse-if-you-measure-it-the-proper-way
Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-15/gas-crisis-of-the-70s-holds-lessons-for-today 

Identifying Math Talent

How a Public School in Florida Built America’s Greatest Math Team
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secrets-of-americas-greatest-high-school-math-team-11657791000
A teacher obsessed with identifying talent, maximizing potential and optimizing education has created a dynasty 

India to Become World’s Most Populous Country in 2023

China’s baby bust is so dramatic, India will surpass it as the world’s most populous country far earlier than expected
https://fortune.com/2022/07/12/china-population-india-birth-rates-baby-bust-worlds-most-populous-country/

Baby bust: China’s looming demographic disaster
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/baby-bust-chinas-looming-demographic-disaster

The pecking order of the world's population is soon to change
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/07/14/the-pecking-order-of-the-worlds-population-is-soon-to-change 

No longer the most populous, but still China wants to be world number one
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/17/no-longer-the-most-populous-but-still-china-wants-to-be-world-number-one

US Politics: Far-Right versus Far-Left

In preparation for power, America’s new right builds new institutions
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/07/05/in-preparation-for-power-americas-new-right-builds-new-institutions
 
Democrats in America are realizing they must moderate or die
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/07/14/democrats-in-america-are-realising-they-must-moderate-or-die
 
Democrats have a Hispanic problem
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/07/07/democrats-have-a-hispanic-problem 

UK Productivity Slowdown and a Citation

UK Parliament Committee – House of Commons Report
Jobs, growth and productivity after coronavirus
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5803/cmselect/cmtreasy/139/report.html 

My piece from early 2021 got a mention - see footnote 244 above.

The pros and cons of running the economy hot by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR, (The Hill |02/01/21)
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/536691-the-pros-and-cons-of-running-the-economy-hot/

Food Parks Will Help Improve Food Security in India

UAE to Invest $2 Billion to Set Up Food Parks in India
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-14/uae-to-invest-2-billion-to-set-up-food-parks-in-india
The United Arab Emirates will invest $2 billion to set up food parks across India as part of efforts by a US-led four-nation group to help tackle food insecurity in South Asia and the Middle East. 

Revival of Domestic Tourism in India

Indians embrace campervanning and help to revive country’s tourism
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/jul/14/campervans-caravans-breaks-holidays-tourism-industry-india 

Investing in an Inflationary Environment

How to Invest When Inflation Is Bad and a Recession May Loom
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/business/investing-inflation-recession.html
If This Is Your First Bear Market, There’s No Need to Panic
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-14/personal-finance-if-this-is-your-first-bear-market-don-t-panic
How to improve your chances on the stock market as recession looms
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/14/how-improve-chances-stock-market-recession-looms/ 

US Housing Market - The Supply Side

The Housing Shortage Isn’t Just a Coastal Crisis Anymore
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/14/upshot/housing-shortage-us.html
 
Housing Shortage Spreads Across US, Becoming Coast-to-Coast Crisis
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-14/housing-shortage-spreads-across-us-becoming-coast-to-coast-crisis
 
Rents in US Rise at Fastest Pace Since 1986, Buoying Inflation
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-13/rents-in-us-rise-at-fastest-pace-since-1986-buoying-inflation 

Related:

What’s Up With the Crazy Housing Market?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/08/realestate/housing-market.html 

Legacy Admissions at Elite Universities

Elite Colleges’ Quiet Fight to Favor Alumni Children
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/13/us/legacy-admissions-colleges-universities.html
Colleges like Yale and Harvard give a boost to legacy applicants. But with affirmative action under attack, that tradition may become harder to defend. 

America's Flawed Political System

Welcome to Gerrymander U.S.A., Where Your Voice Is Silenced
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/opinion/texas-redistricting-maps-gerrymandering.html
Jesse Wegman:
Politicians are elected freely by voters, and they serve at the pleasure of those voters, who can throw them out if they believe they aren’t doing a good job. Partisan gerrymanders upend that process. Politicians redraw lines to win their seats regardless of whether most voters want them to ...
When these gerrymanders become the norm, as they have in the absence of meaningful checks, they silence the voices of millions of Americans, leading people to believe they have little or no power to choose their representatives. This helps increase the influence of the political extremes. It makes bipartisan compromise all but impossible and creates a vicious circle in which the most moderate candidates are the least likely to run or be elected. 

Wall Street Slump

Drought for Rainmakers Threatens Job Cuts for Bankers
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-12/wall-street-drought-for-rainmakers-threatens-banker-job-cuts 

UK Prime Minister Race – Rishi versus Penny

Penny Mordaunt versus Rishi Sunak
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/13/penny-mordaunt-seizes-momentum-first-tory-leadership-ballot/ 

Rishi Sunak, the Lonely Tory Defending UK Fiscal Restraint
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-13/tory-leadership-race-rishi-sunak-only-candidate-not-promising-tax-cuts

How Will Fed Respond to Peak Inflation?

June inflation soared 9.1%, a new 40-year high, amid spiking gas prices
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/13/inflation-june-cpi/
 
Fed Could Weigh Historic 100 Basis-Point Hike After Inflation Scorcher
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-13/fed-could-weigh-historic-100-basis-point-hike-after-cpi-scorcher

Recession risks rise as Fed faces daunting task
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/13/fed-inflation-recession/

Inflation Soared in June, Pinching Consumers and Challenging Policymakers
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/13/business/economy/inflation-june-soaring-consumers.html 

Euro-Dollar Parity

Euro Falls to Equal the U.S. Dollar for the First Time in 20 Years
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/13/business/euro-dollar-parity.html 

Pandemic's Impact on Education

Covid learning loss has been a global disaster
https://www.economist.com/international/2022/07/07/covid-learning-loss-has-been-a-global-disaster 

China Already Has Driverless Taxis

Baidu's self-driving taxis now a common sight in Beijing
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech/Baidu-s-self-driving-taxis-now-a-common-sight-in-Beijing 

Fed Needs to Maintain Focus on Inflation Risks

For the Fed, Easing Too Soon Risks Repeat of Stop-and-Go 1970s
https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-the-fed-easing-too-soon-risks-repeat-of-stop-and-go-1970s-11657454403 

Non-Aligned Movement Returns

Cold War 2.0 Is Ushering in Nonalignment 2.0
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/09/nonalignment-us-china-cold-war-ukraine-india-global-south/
 
Why a growing number of countries want to avoid getting stuck in a great-power tussle—again.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/01/nonalignment-international-system-alliance-bloc/ 

Turkey’s Serious Inflation Problem

President Erdoğan’s defiance of conventional economics is fanning the flames of inflation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/06/warning-turkey-what-hyperinflation-looks-like/ 

Academia - Shadow of the Parent

People from elite backgrounds increasingly dominate academia, data shows
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/08/dept-of-data-academia-elite/
 
Not exactly sure why this is a surprising result. 

Shinzo Abe Transformed the Indo-Pacific Region

Shinzo Abe Forged a New Asia

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-08/shinzo-abe-s-greatest-legacy-is-the-indo-pacific
He transformed “Indo-Pacific” from a catchphrase into an aspiration, defining a security and economic architecture to preserve free thought and free trade in the region and beyond.

How Shinzo Abe Initiated Quad, Played A Pivotal Role in Transforming India-Japan Ties
https://www.outlookindia.com/international/how-shinzo-abe-initiated-quad-played-a-pivotal-role-in-transforming-india-japan-ties-news-207701
 
What Shinzo Abe, who had a special rapport with Narendra Modi, achieved for India-Japan ties
https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-shinzo-abe-india-narendra-modi-japan-8017094/
 
Japan is an incredibly safe place:
Abe shooting: why gun violence is so rare in zero-tolerance Japan
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/08/abe-shooting-why-gun-violence-is-so-rare-in-zero-tolerance-japan 

US Labor Market – Are Conditions Still Tight?

US Job Gains Top Estimates; Jobless Rate Holds at 3.6%
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-08/us-job-gains-top-estimates-unemployment-rate-holds-at-3-6

Labor market remains red hot amid growing recession fears
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/06/jobs-quits-hires-layoffs/

More workers without degrees are landing jobs. Will it last?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2022/07/08/jobs-no-college-degrees/

What is the Endgame in Ukraine?

The West wants to save Ukraine from defeat. But what about victory?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/08/defeat-ukraine-victory-russia/ 

Deadly Consequences of Heatwaves

India’s Deadly Heatwave Will Soon Be a Global Reality
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2022-07-07/the-climate-is-growing-hot-enough-to-kill-as-humid-heatwaves-intensify 

How hot is too hot for the human body?
https://theconversation.com/how-hot-is-too-hot-for-the-human-body-our-lab-found-heat-humidity-gets-dangerous-faster-than-many-people-realize-185593 

What's Holding Back Female Labor Force Participation?

Jobs Aplenty, but a Shortage of Care Keeps Many Women from Benefiting
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/07/business/economy/women-labor-caregiving.html 

Offices Are Here to Stay

Hybrid Work Is Doomed
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/07/work-from-home-rto-flexibility/661495/ 

Long-Term Consequences of Abortion Ban

Restrictions on Contraception Could Set Women Back Generations
https://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/restrictions-on-contraception-could-set-women-back-generations
Related:
https://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/the-devastating-economic-impacts-of-an-abortion-ban

No Abortion Means Poor States Will Get Poorer
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-04/roe-v-wade-outlawing-abortion-will-keep-more-women-poor
The South and Southwest U.S. has only recently begun closing the prosperity gap with their neighbors to the north. Overturning Roe v. Wade would slow that progress.
 
Abortion Rollback Risks Erasing Decades of Economic Gains for U.S. Women
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-03/u-s-abortion-rollback-risks-erasing-economic-gains-for-women 

UK's Next Prime Minister - The Contest Begins

Who could replace Boris Johnson as British prime minister?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/07/boris-johnson-replacement-prime-minister/ 

Who will replace Boris Johnson? The runners and riders
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/07/who-will-replace-boris-johnson-runners-and-riders-tory-leader

Chancellor, and then PM? Why Nadhim Zahawi could be heading to the very top (and fast)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/07/06/chancellor-pm-why-nadhim-zahawi-could-heading-top-fast/ 

US Business Leaders Lean Heavily Towards the Republican Side

Top business executives have gotten even more Republican, study finds
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/06/corporate-political-polarization-study/ 

Boston’s Mayor

Boston's Michelle Wu Is a Mayor of Many Firsts
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-06/boston-s-michelle-wu-is-a-mayor-of-many-firsts 

Fixing America's Education System

Bloomberg Editors:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-06/lowell-high-school-san-francisco-school-decision-is-reason-to-celebrate
“In the wake of the pandemic, the answer to the crisis facing America’s students is more rigor, not less. Rather than lowering academic standards, policy makers should focus on ensuring more students have the tools to meet them. That requires using assessments to measure student progress, recruiting and training higher-quality teachers, and promoting innovation through expansion of charter schools. Added resources should be devoted to identifying gifted and talented students from disadvantaged backgrounds and providing them with more challenging academic programs”. 

‘Great Resignation’ Hits the Academic World

Professors are leaving academe during the Great Resignation
https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2022/07/05/professors-are-leaving-academe-during-great-resignation 

Troubling Times Ahead

A CRISIS HISTORIAN HAS SOME BAD NEWS FOR US
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/adam-tooze-chartbook-substack-newsletter-inflation-crisis/661467/ 

2022 Inflation Crisis - Domestic and International Challenges

USA

Why Consumers’ Inflation Psychology Is Stoking Anxiety at the Fed
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-consumers-inflation-psychology-is-stoking-anxiety-at-the-fed-11657013400
 
Veterans of Carter-Era Inflation Warn That Biden Has Few Tools to Tame Prices
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/05/business/economy/inflation-biden-jimmy-carter.html
 
Inflation is even worse than the official numbers suggest
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/05/inflation-is-even-worse-than-official-numbers-suggest/
 
 
INTERNATIONAL

Inflation 'time bomb': Food and energy prices soar in Germany
https://www.dw.com/en/inflation-time-bomb-food-and-energy-prices-soar-in-germany/a-62380661
 
Eurozone inflation rises to 8.6 percent, the highest ever, driven by energy prices.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/01/business/eurozone-inflation-june.html

Accelerating Inflation in Asia Puts Pressure on Central Banks to Raise Rates
https://www.wsj.com/articles/accelerating-inflation-in-asia-puts-pressure-on-central-banks-to-raise-rates-11657018992
 
Wealthy Mideast nations boost spending to protect citizens from inflation
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/06/saudi-uae-inflation-middle-east/