US Labor Market - Still Stable?

September Hiring Trudged Along but Labor Market Still on Steady Track
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/september-jobs-report-unemployment-6b6d6643
Anemic hiring fell far short of expectations with 29,000 jobs added last month, but the unemployment rate remains near historic lows.

US job growth undershoots expectations in September, but labor market remains stable
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-job-growth-slows-sharply-september-unemployment-rate-rises-42-2026-10-02/
 
A Burst of New Workers in September
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/jobs-report-labor-department-labor-force-37fc91cc
The labor force grew by 485,000, and most of those found work. 

Oversupply of PhDs

The Ph.D. Job Crisis Is a Needed Market Correction
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-ph-d-job-crisis-is-a-needed-market-correction-cfef32c9
Universities will produce fewer underemployed, overcredentialed and aggrieved young people. 

Why young academics are leaving academia
https://www.ft.com/content/8097a49b-32f9-455c-890c-921d3b419f59
As more PhD holders compete for limited university jobs, many are reconsidering the appeal of industry careers. 

College versus Technical School

‘Skills nobody can take’: Meet a 20-year-old with a 4.5 GPA who skipped college for technical school to land an ‘AI-proof’ career
https://finance.yahoo.com/small-business/articles/skills-nobody-meet-20-old-071200562.html 

Subtle Effects of AI in the Workplace

The Quiet Way A.I. Is Hitting the Work Force
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/16/business/ai-raises-hiring.html
Lower wage growth and slower hiring in some sectors may be the result of artificial intelligence, especially for younger workers. 

Labor Force Participation Rates in Europe

On Europe’s economy, let’s ditch the lazy stereotypes
https://www.ft.com/content/362b3139-b0de-42f1-83db-67d4572a66ce
Despite careful, consistent labor market reforms, the continent has not lived down to its image as work-shy. 

The Decline in the Labor Share of Income

US workers' share of GDP skids to fresh record low
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-workers-share-gdp-skids-fresh-record-low-2026-08-06/
 
Workers’ share of America’s income is at a record low before the AI boom even begins
https://fortune.com/2026/09/04/ai-productivity-labor-share/
Related: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/don-t-think-floor-workers-073000433.html
 
The Post‑COVID Decline in the Labor Share
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/06/the-post-covid-decline-in-the-labor-share/
 
Why Labor’s Share of Wealth Is Shrinking
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/07/opinion/labor-capitol-workers-income.html 

The Record Divide Between Corporate Profits and Worker Pay
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-record-divide-between-corporate-profits-and-worker-pay-ea4c75bc
Labor’s share of economic output just hit an all-time low, while the profit share neared a record. It helps explain why consumers feel so glum. 

The Big Money in Today’s Economy Is Going to Capital, Not Labor 

https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/capital-labor-wealth-economy-2fcf6c2f

Soaring profits and stocks funnel more of GDP toward companies, their top employees and shareholders. AI will intensify this trend.

Can productivity boom lift US workers' record low share of GDP? Unlikely
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/can-productivity-boom-lift-us-workers-record-low-share-gdp-unlikely-2026-02-11/

‘We deserve more’: US workers’ share of the pie dwindles

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/06/workers-income-labor-

 

“Perspectives on the Labor Share,” by Loukas Karabarbounis

https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.38.2.107

As of 2022, the share of US income accruing to labor is at its lowest level since the Great Depression. Updating previous studies with more recent observations, I document the continuing decline of the labor share for the United States, other countries, and various industries. I discuss how changes in technology and product, labor, and capital markets affect the trend of the labor share. I also examine its relationship with other macroeconomic trends, such as rising markups, higher concentration of economic activity, and globalization. I conclude by offering some perspectives on the economic and policy implications of the labor share decline.

Rethinking the Value of a College Degree

Americans Without College Degrees Have One of the Best Job Markets in Years
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/americans-without-college-degrees-are-having-one-of-the-best-job-markets-in-years-5f37d00e
Unemployment among younger workers who didn’t go to college has rarely been lower in recent decades. It is the opposite story for college graduates.
 
The university degree is losing its luster
https://www.ft.com/content/54cf40cd-149f-40db-b603-21aecd5f66ec
 
China’s New Graduates, Facing a Dire Job Market, Must Also Contend with A.I.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/06/world/asia/chinas-new-graduates-ai-challenges.html
A record 12.7 million young people are looking for jobs as the country embraces artificial intelligence — and as the technology begins to upend the work force.  

My take from Jan 2022:
Is the US higher education bubble about to burst?
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/590971-will-the-us-higher-education-bubble-finally-burst

Related:

The College Wage Premium in the Generative AI Era

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7364838

Abstract

After expanding for four decades, the U.S. college wage premium is experiencing a sustained contraction, dropping sharply from 0.626 in 2022 to 0.575 in 2026. Using Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group data through 2026, we show that standard market-clearing supply and demand accounting implies an unprecedented drop in relative demand for college labor-the first sustained negative relative demand growth in a series spanning back to 1914. Linking individual wage data to task-based generative AI exposure, we document that post-2022 wage growth slowed disproportionately in high-exposure occupations, which employ a disproportionate share of college graduates. By 2026, going from zero occupational AI exposure to full exposure had a negative effect on wages of -0.086. Combined with the college-non-college exposure gap, this mechanism accounts for roughly 28 percent of the total drop in the college wage premium from 2022 to 2026. While noncausal, these patterns indicate that task displacement in AI-exposed white-collar occupations plays a quantitatively meaningful role in the recent compression of the aggregate skill premium.

August Jobs Report

August Jobs Report
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf 

The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August, more than double expectations
https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/04/economy/us-jobs-report-august
 
August's blowout jobs report was good news for blue-collar workers, while white-collar professionals fell behind
https://www.businessinsider.com/job-growth-losses-august-industries-labor-market-2026-9

The biggest August jobs beat in nearly 30 years may be less impressive than it looks

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/the-biggest-august-jobs-beat-in-nearly-30-years-may-be-less-impressive-than-it-looks-chart-of-the-day-114716694.html/

 

American Workers Have Slammed the Brakes on Switching Jobs

https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/american-workers-have-slammed-the-brakes-on-switching-jobs-767c45d1

The country is adding about 80,000 jobs a month, an improvement from last year, but workers are still wary of job hopping.

Related:

https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/august-jobs-report-unemployment-c9da2f0c

https://www.businessinsider.com/job-market-long-term-unemployment-hiring-slowdown-looking-for-work-2026-9

Deciphering the State of the US Labor Market

Labor Market Mysteries
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/notes-on-the-week-ahead/labor-market-mysteries/ 

The A.I. Job Apocalypse Debate

CBS 60 Minutes Report on AI and Jobs
https://youtu.be/peNzGhlAeZw

Will A.I. Still Take Our Jobs?
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/open-questions/will-ai-still-take-our-jobs  
The jobs apocalypse hasn’t arrived. Something else is happening instead.
 
Generative Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, and the Future of Work
https://economics.td.com/gen-ai-intelligence

The jobs apocalypse is postponed. An AI jobs boom is here
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/09/04/the-jobs-apocalypse-is-postponed-an-ai-jobs-boom-is-here
Initial effects of the technology on employment look positive.

Has the A.I. Job Apocalypse Been Postponed?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/has-the-ai-job-apocalypse-been-postponed
So far, the proliferation of products such as Claude and ChatGPT hasn’t led to mass displacement of workers. But deployment is accelerating and economic pressures are rising.

Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence
https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publication/canaries-in-the-coal-mine-six-facts-about-the-recent-employment-effects-of-artificial-intelligence/

AI hits college graduates in the heart of America’s data center boom
https://www.ft.com/content/9334212a-3cc4-426c-9cbe-57cb48033603
Research shows job postings in Texas have dropped for AI-exposed occupations.
 
Job postings show early signs of AI automation impact
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0901 

Related:

The College Wage Premium in the Generative AI Era

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7364838

Abstract

After expanding for four decades, the U.S. college wage premium is experiencing a sustained contraction, dropping sharply from 0.626 in 2022 to 0.575 in 2026. Using Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group data through 2026, we show that standard market-clearing supply and demand accounting implies an unprecedented drop in relative demand for college labor-the first sustained negative relative demand growth in a series spanning back to 1914. Linking individual wage data to task-based generative AI exposure, we document that post-2022 wage growth slowed disproportionately in high-exposure occupations, which employ a disproportionate share of college graduates. By 2026, going from zero occupational AI exposure to full exposure had a negative effect on wages of -0.086. Combined with the college-non-college exposure gap, this mechanism accounts for roughly 28 percent of the total drop in the college wage premium from 2022 to 2026. While noncausal, these patterns indicate that task displacement in AI-exposed white-collar occupations plays a quantitatively meaningful role in the recent compression of the aggregate skill premium.

AI and Education - Differing Perspectives

Are graduates prepared for the AI era? | FT
https://youtu.be/EsdqCEuoI8M
 
A Society of Cheats
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/08/ai-use-college-cheat/688451/
Students’ use of AI is teaching them to cut corners, disdain rules, and believe that integrity is for suckers and wimps. 

College Rankings and Choice of College Majors

LinkedIn Top Colleges 2026: The 50 best colleges for long-term career success in the U.S.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/linkedin-top-colleges-2026-50-best-long-term-career-success-6gyze
 
Does What You Major in Really Matter?
https://www.townandcountrymag.com/education-college/a71944143/how-to-choose-college-major/
Is computer science out? Will a degree in AI have legs? What about the humanities? Choosing an undergraduate major has never felt more high stakes. 

Economics PhD Placements

Expanding Opportunities: New Facts about the Placement of PhD Economists
https://docs.iza.org/dp18868.pdf
Abstract
Is the top of the economics profession becoming more insular? We study the placement of top PhD graduates over the past quarter-century matching them to their advisors. Three trends point towards greater openness: graduates increasingly place outside academia, outside the US, and into a tech sector recruiting broadly across gender, ethnicity, and program prestige. The disaggregated picture is less reassuring: the Emerging South is largely sidelined in the global job market, East Asians face persistent gaps in top academic placement, and elite advisors continue to confer substantial advantages within academia. Tech placement, meanwhile, is dominated by a single employer.

Economists Are Studying the Slowing Job Market – and Feeling It Themselves
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/economists-job-market-hiring-2213807b
Newly minted Ph.Ds. tend to work for universities, government agencies and big white-collar companies. It’s not a great hiring time for any of them.

The Bull Market for Economists Is Over. It’s an Ominous Sign for the Economy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/business/economics-jobs-hiring.html
Earning a Ph.D. in economics has long been a reliable path to affluence and prestige. Not anymore. 

Related:

https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2024/12/oversupply-of-economics-phds.html 

Gen Z and the Job Market

How the Job Market Will Shape the Next Generation
https://www.newyorker.com/news/fault-lines/how-the-job-market-will-shape-the-next-generation
Young people are already discontented. It’s not going to get better anytime soon. 

India's Jobs Crisis

India’s Private University Graduates Are Left Jobless and in Debt
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/18/business/india-private-university-debt.html
Families are betting their savings on private universities as a path to a better life. A shortage of well-paying work is turning that wager into frustration.
 
500,000 Applicants, 583 Jobs: The Frantic Scramble for Work in India
https://www.wsj.com/world/india/500-000-applicants-583-jobs-the-frantic-scramble-for-work-in-india-0fefa2b3
Many of the South Asian country’s youth face epic odds in trying to find good jobs, a challenge that is a growing political and economic problem. 

Feeling Poorer

As Inflation Eats Up Pay Gains, Workers Fall Behind
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/15/business/inflation-worker-pay.html
When prices spiked in 2021-22, wages failed to keep up for many workers, new research shows. Now the pattern is repeating. 

AI and the Developing World

The Philippines’ big offshoring industry is growing despite AI
https://www.economist.com/asia/2026/08/06/the-philippines-big-offshoring-industry-is-growing-despite-ai
How long will that last?
 
India’s IT sector is surviving artificial intelligence
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/08/06/indias-it-sector-is-surviving-artificial-intelligence
Though the technology is making life still harder for many graduates.

Where A.I. Is Creating Jobs for Humans, for a While
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/20/world/asia/ai-jobs-data-annotation-india-karur.html
In the fast-growing field of data annotation, people in a small town in south India are training A.I. to better perform human labor.

Developing countries have ‘less to fear’ from AI than rich nations
https://www.ft.com/content/33c20c4e-6a25-42da-9f1e-6664c8388957
“As a rule, developing economies today have more to gain — and less to fear — from AI than richer ones ... less than a tenth of their jobs are susceptible to AI automation, compared with more than a third in high-income economies,” said Indermit Gill, the bank’s chief economist. 

World Development Report 2026: THE PROMISE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstreams/4df724a5-2e0d-4e66-bcb8-1d3bf4e22390/download

Boomerang Generation

Moving Back Home After College? All Your Friends Are Doing It.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/02/business/college-graduates-living-at-home.html
More young adults are living with their parents. The development suggests that they face a weak job market, but also that fewer face stigma in returning to the roost.

Moving Back Home Used to Be a Sign of Failure. Now It Shows Financial Savvy.
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/relationships/living-with-parents-finances-0c35530c
Nearly half of American adults under 30, pinched by the cost of housing, are living with a parent. It can be an adjustment for both. 

Related:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/fault-lines/the-kids-are-kind-of-all-right

AI and Job Market Evolution

A.I. Companies Are Recruiting Electricians and Carpenters by the Thousands
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/29/business/economy/data-center-electricians-training.html
The future of artificial intelligence depends on finding more skilled humans for some very physical jobs. 

The Rise of Million-Dollar Companies with Just One Employee
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-rise-of-million-dollar-companies-with-just-one-employee-f36a77c1
AI tools make it easier for founders to get started alone, and many stay that way as they grow. 

Startup Boom in America

America Has Become an Entrepreneur’s Paradise
https://www.economist.com/business/2026/07/27/america-has-become-an-entrepreneurs-paradise

America’s Enterprising Spirit Is Booming After Decades-Long Slump
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/17/business/economy/american-small-business-boom.html