Sunday, May 31, 2026

AI and the Growing Sense of Unease

The coming rise of anti-AI populism
https://www.ft.com/content/b4429ea0-4a0a-4a28-96f5-debf4f3eb339
Anxiety about the technology is set to generate a political backlash.


The AI Economy’s Permanent Underclass
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-boom-threatens-to-leave-billions-of-people-behind-by-kenneth-rogoff-2026-06
AI is transforming the global economy while widening the gap between technological winners and losers. Governments that fail to secure a place in the AI supply chain may find themselves confronting mass job displacement without the tax revenues or state capacity needed to contain the social and political fallout.


Faith and governance in the age of thinking machines
https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/big-tech/2026/05/faith-and-governance-in-the-age-of-thinking-machines
Alys Key:
This contributes to another reason why we are getting these missives from on high about AI. It’s a nebulous reason, a public mood, best expressed by a Silicon Valley meme about the “permanent underclass”. Half-joking, half-serious, this term describes the idea that AI brings about an end to social mobility by replacing all human labor, and that there are only a few years left in which to accumulate wealth before that happens. Those AI shareholders will be fine. For the rest of us, it’s anyone’s guess.
This is an extreme scenario, but taps into a feeling that we might get left behind. More than generalized anxiety about inequality, this is a fear that the new wave of wealth and superintelligence will end everything about life as we know it. It is a feeling intermingled with disappointment over stagnant wages, the cost of living, the state of politics, the environmental crisis, the slow loss of newspapers/Saturday jobs/bank branches/whatever it was that made life feel real to you. 

I Profile Celebrities for a Living. Nothing Prepared Me for Tilly Norwood.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/31/magazine/ai-actress-tilly-norwood.html
The A.I. actress on her craft, the future of film and how she definitely does not intend to murder us. 

Poland's Economic Miracle

How Poland Built a Trillion-Dollar Economy
https://youtu.be/k1WxT7pjRzk 

China and Industrial Policy

China’s comparative advantage is industrial policy: Western attempts to imitate Beijing’s state-funded model are unwise
https://www.ft.com/content/42fc2ea1-cd3a-43d1-87c6-eba09a44d888 

Saturday, May 30, 2026

AI Tackles an Erdos Problem

A Famous Math Problem Stumped Humans for 80 Years. AI Just Cracked It.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-math-solves-erdos-problem-openai-c4029e84
The math world is losing its mind over the new solution to an ErdÅ‘s problem. This is what AI found, how we missed it—and why it matters. 

People/Politicians are Not Rational Actors

Jeremy Warner:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/30/a-year-from-now-nobody-will-be-talking-about-iran/
In the lead-up to the First World War, stock markets sailed blissfully on: not because investors were unaware of the ever-louder drum beat of impending conflict but because they collectively assumed none of the great powers would be stupid enough to stumble into the catastrophe of an all-out war.
That view was perfectly encapsulated in a highly influential book by Norman Angell, a British journalist, published a few years before the outbreak of hostilities. Angell’s The Great Illusion argued that the economic costs of war and the accompanying disruptions to trade were likely to be so devastating that nobody could possibly hope to gain by starting one.
Economic interdependence between industrial countries would be “the real guarantor of the good behavior of one state to another”, Angell argued. This had never stopped countries from going to war before but it was also true that the level of economic integration and interchange between elites in Europe at the time was without precedent. Sadly, it didn’t help. Yet markets refused to believe in bad outcomes right up to the point where troops were mobilized and borders closed. 

Friday, May 29, 2026

UK's 'Worklessness' Crisis

There’s a £710-a-week reason why Britain can’t get people back to work
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/06/04/in-benefits-britain-work-simply-doesnt-pay/
Labour has done nothing since coming to power to turn the tide of a broken welfare system.


How Britain sank into the worst jobs crisis in two centuries
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/29/britain-sank-worst-jobs-crisis-two-centuries/ 

One in seven university graduates are not in education, employment or training (NEETs), according to a flagship review that warned government policy was making it harder for young people to find work.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/28/one-in-seven-university-graduates-are-neets/ 

Japan's Demographics

How Japan Lost 3 Million People in 5 Years
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/05/29/world/asia/japan-census-population-decline.html
The staggering population drop underscores the depths of the country’s accelerating demographic crisis.  

Capital versus Labor Share of Income

The Record Divide Between Corporate Profits and Worker Pay
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-record-divide-between-corporate-profits-and-worker-pay-ea4c75bc
Labor’s share of economic output just hit an all-time low, while the profit share neared a record. It helps explain why consumers feel so glum. 

The Big Money in Today’s Economy Is Going to Capital, Not Labor 
Soaring profits and stocks funnel more of GDP toward companies, their top employees and shareholders. AI will intensify this trend.


‘We deserve more’: US workers’ share of the pie dwindles
 
“Perspectives on the Labor Share,” by Loukas Karabarbounis
As of 2022, the share of US income accruing to labor is at its lowest level since the Great Depression. Updating previous studies with more recent observations, I document the continuing decline of the labor share for the United States, other countries, and various industries. I discuss how changes in technology and product, labor, and capital markets affect the trend of the labor share. I also examine its relationship with other macroeconomic trends, such as rising markups, higher concentration of economic activity, and globalization. I conclude by offering some perspectives on the economic and policy implications of the labor share decline.

The TACO Problem

The TACO Equilibrium
https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/2026/05/oil-prices-iran-trump/687344/
Oil markets expect Donald Trump to end the Iran war imminently. That might be why he doesn’t.  

Thursday, May 28, 2026

China's Tech Supremacy Goal

China’s Long March to Technological Supremacy
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-science-technology-outflanking-the-us-and-europe-by-johan-rockstrom-and-inga-strumke-2026-05
China’s R&D prowess was visible in research output, patents, PhDs, and critical technologies for years, long before crystallizing into commercial products that Western investors, commentators, and policymakers noticed. And now it’s happening again.

How China Achieved Innovation Without Freedom
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/smart-authoritarianism-enabled-china-to-become-an-innovation-leader-by-jennifer-lind-2025-11
Though China remains a one-party state that disappears dissidents and censors ideas, it has vaulted past Japan, Germany, and France to become the world’s tenth most-innovative economy. It owes this achievement – which was long considered impossible – to a pioneering strategy of "smart authoritarianism." 

The World's Most Livable Cities for (American) Expats

The World's Most Livable Cities for (American) Expats
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the-world-s-most-livable-cities-for-expats-87176.html 

China Reforms the Hukou System

Without fanfare, China is making rural migrants’ lives easier
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/05/28/without-fanfare-china-is-making-rural-migrants-lives-easier
The notorious hukou system is being relaxed. Marx would approve. 

'China Shock' Hits East Asia

How East Asia should respond to its China shock
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/05/28/how-east-asia-should-respond-to-its-china-shock
As they deindustrialize, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan must reform.
 
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are suffering industrial rot
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/05/27/japan-south-korea-and-taiwan-are-suffering-industrial-rot
Artificial intelligence is concealing a China shock. 

Rise of Humanoid Robots

Robots will trigger the real AI revolution – and China is in the lead
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/28/robots-will-trigger-real-ai-revolution-and-china-is-in-lead/
Humanoid machines have the potential to serve us well by enhancing productivity. 

KOSPI - Korea's Stock Market Boom

The world’s wildest stock market
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/28/the-worlds-wildest-stock-market/
As investment fever grips South Korea, fears grow over the country’s murky governance practices. 

Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Agricultural Productivity in LAC

Latin America’s Agricultural Boom Is Faltering
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/productivity-crisis-threatening-latin-american-agriculture-by-ana-maria-ibanez-et-al-2026-05
The productivity growth that transformed agriculture across Latin America and the Caribbean has slowed sharply in recent years, with farmers increasingly relying on costly inputs rather than efficiency gains. Without sustained public investment, the region risks losing competitiveness and reversing decades of hard-won progress. 

Hong Kong - Top Offshore Wealth Hub

Dealing with External Shocks - The Case of India

India’s External Shock Is an Economic Opportunity
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/india-response-to-iran-energy-shock-by-gaurav-dalmia-1-and-chetan-aggarwal-2026-05
Despite strong fundamentals, India’s economy has major vulnerabilities stemming from its external account. With energy flows contested, shipping routes under threat, and capital markets increasingly shaped by geopolitics, the country must leverage its relative strength to weather current shocks and build long-term resilience. 

Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Teaching in the Age of AI

The Despair of the Professor in the Age of A.I. by Jay Caspian Kang
https://www.newyorker.com/news/fault-lines/the-despair-of-the-professor-in-the-age-of-ai
“Was it always the case that half of our students would cheat if it were easy enough?”

State of the Corporate Bond Market

Corporate Bonds Are a Great Deal if You Don’t Look Too Closely
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/corporate-bonds-are-a-great-deal-if-you-dont-look-too-closely-0b9af226
Highly rated debts offer high yields but are priced close to perfection. 

Is it Time to Get Worried About US Equities?

Telegraph's Jeremy Warner:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/26/stock-markets-threaten-to-fracture-under-pressure-from-trum/
It’s a mug’s game predicting when bull markets are going to end. So far, stock prices have casually brushed aside virtually every shock thrown at them – from pestilence to war and growing protectionism – and could easily carry on in the same vein for a long time to come.
But as Herbert Stein, President Richard Nixon’s economic adviser, observed: “If something cannot carry on forever, it will stop.” Hard to know when, though.


The Risk Premium for Holding Stocks Over Bonds Is Vanishing
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-risk-premium-for-holding-stocks-over-bonds-is-vanishing-95be5b9d
The gap between the market’s earnings yield and bond yields has narrowed, a measure that has at times predicted subpar stock returns.
 
Jeremy Grantham on why this market will fall by 50% but nobody will warn you
https://youtu.be/M-dnlf_8W5o 

The Stock Market Has Never Been So Good When People Have Felt So Bad
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/stock-market-consumer-sentiment-af088e87
Stocks are partying like it’s 1999, but Americans haven’t been this gloomy in 70 years. 

Monday, May 25, 2026

Bad Vibes

The ‘Vibecession’ Is Over. The ‘Permacession’ Is Here.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/05/americans-depressed-economy/687278/
Why Americans are so unhappy. 

UK - Oversupply of PhDs

Why young academics are leaving academia
https://www.ft.com/content/8097a49b-32f9-455c-890c-921d3b419f59
As more PhD holders compete for limited university jobs, many are reconsidering the appeal of industry careers. 

Absolute Power Corrupts

Were the Constitution’s Authors a Little Too Optimistic?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/25/us/constitution-framers-president-executive-monarch.html
The founding document of the U.S. has a blind spot. President Trump is making it visible.
 
Can Trump’s brazen pursuit of WH enrichment be stopped?
https://youtu.be/4zb7oJPYwlw 

Can Anything Stop Trump’s Corruption?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/can-anything-stop-trumps-corruption
The President’s stock dealing, $1.8-billion “anti-weaponization” slush fund, and grant of immunity from the I.R.S. demonstrate the need for major ethics reforms.

The Gangster Logic of Trump’s Tariff Wars
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-tariffs-extortion-racket-by-anne-o-krueger-2026-05
US President Donald Trump has turned tariffs into instruments of extortion, pressuring trading partners into investment commitments that advance his political and economic interests. Once political favoritism supplants market competition as the organizing principle of global commerce, severe distortions are inevitable.

Revival of the Midwest

The Midwestern Exodus Is Finally Ending
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/akron-ohio-midwest-population-growth-5680accb
A longtime migration away from parts of the Rust Belt has started to reverse, as housing affordability draws people to metro areas such as Akron, Ohio. 

Stablecoins and Private Money

Stablecoins Are Private Money. That’s Why They’re a Risk to the Economy.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/stablecoins-are-private-money-thats-why-theyre-a-risk-to-the-economy-d3498171
Financial innovations often lead to upheaval and instability. Despite new regulations, those risks persist with stablecoins. 

Dip in US Tourism

Staggering dip in US tourism is a troubling sign for the future
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/25/travel/analysis-tourism-fewer-international-visitors-2025-vis 

Sunday, May 24, 2026

International Affairs - Interesting Items

Why Violence Persists in Nigeria
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/nigeria/why-violence-persists-nigeria
And How Governance Reform Can Break the Cycle
 
Why Mexico’s Cartels Are So Hard to Defeat
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/mexico/why-mexicos-cartels-are-so-hard-defeat
The Real Test of Sheinbaum’s Security Strategy
 
How Venezuela’s New Leader Rose from Pariah to Powerful U.S. Partner
https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/venezuela-delcy-rodriguez-trump-power-14bcf086
Delcy Rodríguez has preserved an authoritarian system and has avoided elections for five months while courting Trump officials and the oil industry.
 
Orban’s Fall and Europe’s Rise
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/hungary/orbans-fall-and-europes-rise
The Dawn of a Strange New European Consensus 

Iran War's Impact on Asia

The War-Driven Supply Shock Already Roiling Manufacturing in Asia
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/business/what-is-naphtha.html
A shortage of naphtha, stemming from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is disrupting manufacturing and retail goods in Japan and South Korea.   

Thousands of Miles from the Iran War, Asia’s Currencies Feel the Strain
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/22/business/asia-currency-iran-dollar.html
Soaring oil prices and a surging dollar are testing Asia’s foreign-exchange reserves, which were built up after the 1997 crisis.  

Argentina's 'Inflation Miracle'

Javier Milei’s inflation ‘miracle’ in Argentina is a warning to the world, not a blueprint
https://theconversation.com/javier-mileis-inflation-miracle-in-argentina-is-a-warning-to-the-world-not-a-blueprint-278840 

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Being Ordinary

Why Is It So Hard to Be Ordinary?
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/open-questions/why-is-it-so-hard-to-be-ordinary
It’s what most of us are, most of the time. Shouldn’t it be enough? 

Economics and Morality

How should economists treat morality?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/05/21/how-should-economists-treat-morality
Sometimes it is more than merely an exogenous constraint. 

China and Other Emerging Markets

The other China shock
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/05/21/the-other-china-shock
Does the country’s manufacturing success leave space for anyone else?
 
China Eliminates Tariffs on Africa to Outmaneuver Trump
https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/china-africa-tariffs-664f62eb
African countries are finding it harder to export to the U.S., while China sees it as an opportunity. 

Friday, May 22, 2026

Europe's Dilemma - Welfare versus Growth

Europe Can Be Poor if It Wants—but Does It?
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/europe-can-be-poor-if-it-wantsbut-does-it-83eb3dcd
There’s no moral bar against choosing welfare over economic growth. But don’t deny the trade-off. 

Interesting Take on the Minimum Wage Debate

The Economic Experiment That Upended Reality
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/05/minimum-wage-experiment-worked/687255/
Minimum-wage increases were expected to kill jobs. The fact that they didn’t should make us rethink a lot of assumptions. 

Thursday, May 21, 2026

US Higher Education Woes

60 Percent of Grades at Harvard Were A’s. Enough Is Enough.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/21/opinion/harvard-easy-a-grades.html

‘A’ Grades Are Everywhere Since the Arrival of ChatGPT
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/a-grades-are-suddenly-everywhere-since-the-arrival-of-chatgpt-845baae7
AI is accelerating grade inflation, research indicates and making it harder for employers to assess college grads. 
 
Parents Are Fuming About Other Peoples’ Kids Getting Extra Time on the SAT
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/parents-are-fuming-about-other-peoples-kids-getting-extra-time-on-the-sat-2daeea8c
Special accommodations for irritable bowel syndrome? Families are getting creative, and spending big, in pursuit of an edge. 

Colleges Are at a Breaking Point
https://www.theatlantic.com/podcasts/2026/05/higher-education-college-crisis/687233/
The AI job market has made tuition look like a dubious investment. But it only exposes the deeper identity crisis in American higher education.

The Enrollment Cliff Is Here. Which Schools Will Survive It?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/fault-lines/the-enrollment-cliff-is-here-which-schools-will-survive-it  
As the number of new high-school graduates drops, colleges will close, some will merge, and others may change beyond recognition. 

Why the Future of College Could Look Like OnlyFans
https://www.newyorker.com/news/fault-lines/why-the-future-of-college-could-look-like-onlyfans
Universities have become generic, one professor and former dean argues. In the A.I. era, students may demand something they can’t get elsewhere. 
 
Will A.I. Make College Obsolete?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/fault-lines/will-ai-make-college-obsolete
Americans already distrust institutions, including academia. More and more people may decide that its stamp of approval isn’t worth the cost.

What is the Bond Market Signaling?

The Dangerous Brew That’s Rattling Bond Markets
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-dangerous-brew-thats-rattling-bond-markets-b46def14
A mix of debt, inflation and populism has changed the interest rate landscape since 2020. 

Is the Bond Market Signaling Danger or Opportunity? Or Both?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/20/business/bond-market-investing-global-treasury.html
Interest rates for long-term Treasury bonds have surged to levels last seen in 2007, before the great financial crisis.


Britain’s politicians need to worry less about the bond markets – and more about the Bank of England
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/21/politicians-bond-vigilantes-markets-gilts-bank-of-england


Investors fear another surge in inflation
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/05/19/investors-fear-another-surge-in-inflation
So why aren’t more buying inflation-protected bonds?

Taxing the Rich

Some billionaires pay too little tax
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/06/04/some-billionaires-pay-too-little-tax
But the case for levies on wealth is unconvincing.


How Inequality Caused America’s Affordability Crisis
https://www.project-syndicate.org/magazine/affordability-crisis-stems-from-inequality-calls-for-progressive-taxation-by-robert-h-frank-2026-03
Recent election cycles have shown that “affordability” is among American voters’ greatest and most persistent concerns. But partly because the basic problem has been misdiagnosed, the widely appealing, commonsense solution to it has failed to gain political traction.


Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman: The Case for California’s Billionaire Wealth Tax
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/05/26/opinion/wealth-tax-california-billionaire.html


The Myth of the Deserving Billionaire
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/opposition-to-wealth-taxes-rests-on-a-flawed-assumption-by-teresa-ghilarducci-2026-05
While 55% of Americans say their financial situation is deteriorating, the wealth of the top 1% is reaching record highs. Against this backdrop, defending billionaires from “oppressive” taxation is politically convenient nonsense. 

Just stop moaning and pay your taxes
https://www.ft.com/content/b4f47239-7e05-4002-8d48-8f6f02e81e9e
How did we get here? Essentially, since the 1980s, Republicans have cut taxes on the rich and on corporations. The deficit has exploded as a result. Businesses and rich people, having pocketed the tax cuts (which increasingly go into the markets in a cycle of buying and selling existing assets rather than into the real economy), then complain about the deficit. Worried about supposedly unsustainable government spending, they demand cuts to entitlements like social security and Medicare and say there is no money for infrastructure, education or healthcare. This is particularly nauseating, given how much richer the US is than European nations that have universal healthcare.


A Dangerous "Ally"

Why Would Anyone Trust Pakistan to Mediate with Iran?
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/why-would-anyone-trust-pakistan-to-mediate-with-iran-b5e8934c
We learned in the 2000s that Islamabad’s interests are in many ways the direct opposite of America’s. 

Depreciation Cost

The Typical U.S. Home Is 44 Years Old—And Needs Tons of Work
https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/the-typical-u-s-home-is-44-years-oldand-needs-tons-of-work-a1fd89ea
The costs of home maintenance and upgrades on America’s aging housing stock are vast and rising fast. 

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

The AI Mania

Nvidia’s Profit Hits $58.3 Billion as A.I. Boom Gathers More Steam
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/20/business/nvidia-earnings.html
The chip maker said its profit in its most recent quarter jumped 211 percent from a year earlier thanks to extreme demand from other big technology companies.

A Booming Shadow Market of Sketchy A.I. Investments
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/infinite-scroll/a-booming-shadow-market-of-sketchy-ai-investments
As OpenAI’s and Anthropic’s valuations soar, Silicon Valley outsiders are rushing to secure a small slice however they can.


A Cold Shower for the AI Mania by Raghuram Rajan
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-mania-ignoring-risks-compute-shortages-model-plateau-political-backlash-by-raghuram-g-rajan-2026-05
Although generative AI tools have improved rapidly and now outperform humans across many tasks, the market's current euphoria may not be justified. With AI firms increasingly resorting to debt financing, it is worth pausing to consider all the things that could go wrong.
 
Accessible Version:
https://www.interest.co.nz/technology/138615/raghuram-rajan-sees-multiple-reasons-not-least-mounting-debt-worry-current-market 

Should the UK Rejoin the EU?

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Prehistory of A.I. Slop

The Prehistory of A.I. Slop
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/05/25/the-prehistory-of-ai-slop
Before ChatGPT, there was the Plot Robot, Auto-Beatnik, and a century’s worth of schemes for automating authorship. 

China's Property Market

Nine in 10 families in China own a home. But is the property-owning dream being tested?
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/17/china/china-homeownership-rate-tested-intl-hnk 

Edmund Phelps

Edmund Phelps, Who Upended the Way We View Inflation, Dies at 92
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/18/business/economy/edmund-phelps-dead.html
He won a Nobel in 2006 for challenging the conventional wisdom among economists that higher inflation was a necessary price to pay for low unemployment. 
 
Related:
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/our-firm/what-we-do/our-brand/nobel-perspectives/laureates/edmund-phelps.html 

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Grad Degree Bubble Bursts

A Master’s Degree Isn’t the Job Guarantee It Used to Be
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/a-masters-degree-isnt-the-job-guarantee-it-used-to-be-53e237aa
New data shows the unemployment rate has rarely been higher in the past 20 years among professionals under 35 with advanced degrees. 

Rising Bond Yields Could Deflate the Equity Bubble

Bond yield spike is risk to unprepared equities market, investors warn 
https://www.reuters.com/business/bond-yield-spike-is-risk-unprepared-equities-market-investors-warn-2026-05-17/
Rising benchmark yields tend to put pressure on equity valuations as companies and consumers will ​face higher borrowing costs. This can also weigh on economic growth and corporate profits. 

Political Dysfunction Stymies UK

The disintegration of British democracy
https://www.ft.com/content/345d6b73-6812-4c34-ab4f-9565805e0f05
We are witnessing the fracturing of the traditional party system that glues our society together.


Britain gets the politics it deserves
https://www.ft.com/content/0cb0f4c5-c324-4626-9b5d-cec7726264b7
Cakeism, impatience and low-quality public discourse contribute to the UK’s instability. 

Qatar's Economic Challenges

The War in Iran Is Crippling One of the World’s Wealthiest Nations
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/17/business/qatar-economy-iran-war.html
Iranian attacks have paralyzed Qatar’s vital gas exports and are stalling the tourism and business pivots that were intended to anchor its future growth.  

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Industrial Policy, the Developmental State, and the East Asian Miracle

Industrial Policy, Asian Miracle Style
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/jep.20251448
 
The World Bank's East Asian Miracle: Too Much a Product of Its Time?
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/jep.20251449
 
The Role of Standards in the East Asian Miracle
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/bb7b702e-dbf7-4bd8-9141-01a08d520b3c/content
 
The East Asian Miracle Remembered: Tiger Secrets Hidden in Plain Sight
https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/east-asian-miracle-remembered-tiger-secrets-hidden-plain-sight.pdf
 
‘Birds of a Feather’ Shaped East Asia’s Development ‘Miracles’
https://thediplomat.com/2025/07/birds-of-a-feather-shaped-east-asias-development-miracles/
How shared backgrounds among policy elites powered the economic rise of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China.
 
The East Asian Miracle: Where Did Adam Smith Go Wrong?
https://hir.harvard.edu/the-east-asian-miracle-where-did-adam-smith-go-wrong/

China’s comparative advantage is industrial policy: Western attempts to imitate Beijing’s state-funded model are unwise
https://www.ft.com/content/42fc2ea1-cd3a-43d1-87c6-eba09a44d888

 
Beijing’s ‘Industrial Policy of Everything’ Leaves Rest of the World in the Dust
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/beijings-industrial-policy-of-everything-leaves-rest-of-the-world-in-the-dust-8b94a046
Government support encompasses the old, the new, goods and services, micro and macro. Nothing Trump elicits in China will alter this. 

Is China’s Confidence Justified?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-growing-confidence-masks-deep-structural-challenges-by-jayati-ghosh-2026-05
China’s political and intellectual elites increasingly see the country’s economic transformation as evidence that state-led development has succeeded where liberal capitalism has failed. Yet structural problems, including overcapacity and persistent inequality, suggest that triumphalism may be premature. 

Industrial Policy for an Age of Uncertainty
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/industrial-policy-directed-improvisation-not-picking-winners-by-yuen-yuen-ang-2026-05
With industrial policy back in fashion worldwide, the question is not whether governments should intervene (they already do), but how they should proceed when they do not know in advance what will work. The answer lies in directed improvisation: creating the conditions for experimentation where it counts.


Related:

Political Corruption in America

It’s the corruption, stupid!
https://spectator.com/article/corruption-stupid-trump-administration/
The problem Trump faces is that so many of his political bets are riding on what a growing number of voters view as a casino political system. A decade ago, Donald Trump rose to power running against a system he called “rigged” both against him and ordinary Americans. It’s clear that a considerable number of his own ordinary voters have come to believe that it’s Trump himself rigging the system now, and only in his own favor. 

Index Rebalancing and the Rise of Passive Investing

Index rebalancing is now the biggest event in markets
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/05/12/index-rebalancing-is-now-the-biggest-event-in-markets
But profiting from it is another matter.
 
Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, on the rise of passive investing.  
https://youtu.be/CPPiIiPoQuY 

Friday, May 15, 2026

The Surging Stock Market

Party time for stock markets cannot last for ever
https://www.ft.com/content/87c5ebda-a18e-4eeb-8298-d13bdacf4d50
Investor mood is shifting to outright red-hot exuberance.
 
The Stock Market’s Winning Streak Is About to Be Tested
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/business/stocks-bonds-interest-rates-inflation.html
Despite accelerating inflation and possible interest rate increases, the S&P 500 has posted a long weekly winning streak, driven by strong corporate earnings. Can it last?


War, inflation and Trump’s tariffs have shaken the US. Why does the stock market keep going up?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2026/may/14/us-stock-market-war-inflation-tariffs-trump
Wall Street has proved incredibly resilient to instability, and while consumer confidence has dipped, shares have soared. 

Why It’s So Hard to Spot a Stock-Market Bubble
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-its-so-hard-to-spot-a-stock-market-bubble-63f40a1c
A sudden surge in share prices makes us all think we know what’s coming next.

Why Stocks Keep Going Up
https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/2026/05/stock-market-iran-war-bullish/687041/
The boom is not as untethered from reality as it may look. 

Markets are banking on the ‘Bliss trade’
https://www.ft.com/content/60f60089-9486-481c-859c-f29b8ccbbd90
A belief in resilience underwritten by big lasting state support is keeping stocks high.

The Sorry State of Political Leadership in Europe

Starmer is not alone. It is hell to be a leader in Europe today
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/15/starmer-not-alone-hell-to-be-leader-europe/
The PM’s Continental peers are similarly unpopular – and Britain’s economy is not in bad shape. 

Thursday, May 14, 2026

Sweden’s Capitalist Makeover

The World’s Most Surprising Capitalist Makeover Is Under Way in Sweden
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/the-worlds-most-surprising-capitalist-makeover-is-under-way-in-sweden-a7830619
Total public social spending is falling, its economy is outpacing European peers and taxes have been cut three years running. Not everyone is happy. 

The Powell Era

How Eight Tumultuous Years Pushed Jerome Powell and the Fed to the Limit
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/how-eight-tumultuous-years-pushed-jerome-powell-and-the-fed-to-the-limit-96388c46
The pandemic, inflation and White House pressure tested the central bank’s leader as never before. 

AI and the Grade Inflation Problem

‘A’ Grades Are Everywhere Since the Arrival of ChatGPT
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/a-grades-are-suddenly-everywhere-since-the-arrival-of-chatgpt-845baae7
AI is accelerating grade inflation, research indicates and making it harder for employers to assess college grads. 

How Buddhism Transformed Asia

The Unlikely Story of How Buddhism Transformed Asia
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/t-magazine/nepal-buddha-kathmandu-buddhism.html
Starting in Nepal, the birthplace of the Buddha, we trace how the religion spread across the continent, changing it forever. 

Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Obsession with the Future

Do We Think Too Much About the Future?
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/open-questions/do-we-think-too-much-about-the-future
For most of history, people didn’t try predicting it. Maybe that was wise. 

The Politicization of History

Writing the Trump Years into History
https://www.newyorker.com/news/american-chronicles/writing-the-trump-years-into-history
How do you bring an American-history textbook up to date when the country’s past has become a political battleground? 

The American Revolution Wasn’t the Main Event
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/05/11/republic-and-empire-trevor-burnard-andrew-jackson-oshaughnessy-book-review-freedom-round-the-globe-sarah-pearsall
Americans have long imagined that they set off a global age of revolt. Seen within the era’s wider wars of empire, the story looks rather different.

Real Wage Decline

Prices at the Pump Are Wiping Out Wage Gains
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/prices-at-the-pump-are-wiping-out-wage-gains-d16d78c0
Americans’ hourly wages are up. The problem? Inflation is up even more. 

The Decline of the MBA Degree

There Is a Fire Sale on M.B.A.s
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/there-is-a-fire-sale-on-m-b-a-s-87d56c69
With applications down, more business schools are offering discounts on specialized degrees that promise AI-era training. 

Why Colleges Are Slashing MBA Prices
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/college-tuition-cuts-mba-program-student-loans-da92a98b
The 2025 tax bill capped graduate borrowing at $100,000. Voila.

China versus US

China Increasingly Views Trump’s America as an Empire in Decline
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/business/china-trump-xi-decline.html
For decades, many Chinese viewed the United States with a mix of admiration, envy and resentment. President Trump’s volatile second term shattered that image. 
 
China Seeks A.I. Independence, Weakening Trump’s Leverage
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/business/china-semiconductor-ai-deepseek.html
Before this week’s U.S.-Chinese summit, Beijing reached a milestone in its quest for technological self-sufficiency.
 
Xi’s China: Dazzling Technology, Military Muscle—and an Economic Mess
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/xi-china-technology-military-economy-mess-10eb1e22
China’s government is pouring money into AI, electric cars and military power, while consumer confidence sags and the job market grows bleak. 

China’s ‘Two Billion Feet’ Are Suddenly Running from Nike
https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/nike-china-competition-running-shoes-fbd3b8c6
Quick-moving domestic athletic brands are now able to match American quality and cachet in the hypercompetitive and increasingly nationalistic market.

Sunday, May 10, 2026

‘China Shock’ Hits China?

The Factory Town Known as China’s Furniture Capital Is Fighting to Survive
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/the-factory-town-known-as-chinas-furniture-capital-is-fighting-to-survive-0875bc99
The U.S. lost much of its furniture industry to China years ago. Now, American tariffs and overseas competition are punishing manufacturers. 

A Weird Labor Market


How to Make Sense of This Strange Job Market
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/job-market-unemployment-rates-charts-55c8e85c
It’s a labor market unlike any other: Unemployment has drifted up, layoffs are low, hiring is slow, and the economy needs far fewer new jobs than it did before.
 
AI Can’t Agree on Which Jobs AI Might Destroy
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-models-job-losses-4d31cb6f
Economists asked ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude which jobs were most exposed to AI. Many times, the answers varied widely. 

Xi and China's Generals

How China’s Leader Lost Faith in His Generals
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/09/world/asia/china-military-generals.html
Xi Jinping spent 13 years building a military to rival that of the United States. But the stronger the Chinese forces grew, the less he trusted the generals he had handpicked to run them. 

Decline of US Soft Power

The End of America’s Soft Power
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/04/trump-soft-power-usa/
The United States has given up on one of its core international strengths. 

Reversing Venezuelan Brain Drain

Trump Celebrated Victory in Venezuela. Will That Bring Its People Back?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/10/world/americas/venezuela-maduro-trump-migration.html
Dire conditions prompted an exodus from the country. After its leader’s ousting, the question is whether things have changed enough to make a return appealing. 

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Péter Magyar Interview

Péter Magyar Led Hungarians out of Autocracy. Where Will He Take Them Now?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/peter-magyar-led-hungarians-out-of-autocracy-where-will-he-take-them-now
In his first substantial conversation with a foreign journalist since being elected, the new Prime Minister promised, “We don’t want to build a power machine.” 

Interesting Profile of Usha Vance

Is Usha Vance the mastermind behind J.D. Vance?
https://spectator.com/article/is-usha-vance-the-mastermind-behind-j-d-vance/
Usha studied history at Yale and researched the 17th-century book trade for her MPhil at Cambridge before going on to Yale Law School.
It is well known that J.D. and Usha Vance were set up in law school by their professor, Amy Chua ... 

Friday, May 8, 2026

India's Pro-Trade Shift

India’s New Globalization Raj
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/india-new-globalization-raj-economic-openness-and-liberalization-by-shashi-tharoor-2026-05
India’s deliberate, strategic shift from economic seclusion to global engagement is arguably one of the most consequential structural changes of the 21st century. Indian leaders now understand that self-reliance is achieved through integration, not autarky, and the results speak for themselves. 

Related:
How India Can Supercharge Its Development
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/india/how-india-can-supercharge-its-development
And Really Compete with China.

A Public Debt Milestone

U.S. Debt Is Now Bigger Than the Economy. That’s Not the Real Problem. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/dealbook/debt-100-percent-gdp.html


As U.S. Debt Hits a Worrying Milestone, Washington Barely Notices
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/business/us-debt-trump-policies-budget.html
The debt is outgrowing the size of America’s economy. The president’s policies could accelerate the country’s fiscal headaches, experts say, unless policymakers intervene. 
 
Related:
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/beware-the-bubble--in-the-bond-market-86860.html 

Thursday, May 7, 2026

Structural Shifts in Higher Education

More Colleges Are Closing. It’s About Time
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/more-colleges-are-closing-its-about-time-3786b33a
The market for higher education isn’t failing, but it’s taking an awfully long time to adjust.
 
Will A.I. Make College Obsolete?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/fault-lines/will-ai-make-college-obsolete
Americans already distrust institutions, including academia. More and more people may decide that its stamp of approval isn’t worth the cost. 

Why the Future of College Could Look Like OnlyFans
https://www.newyorker.com/news/fault-lines/why-the-future-of-college-could-look-like-onlyfans  
Universities have become generic, one professor and former dean argues. In the A.I. era, students may demand something they can’t get elsewhere.

Wednesday, May 6, 2026

AI Boom and the Stock Market Rally

Six reasons why America’s stock market rally could keep going
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/06/six-reasons-why-americas-stock-market-rally-could-keep-goin/
The S&P 500 hit a record high even in the face of growing economic uncertainty.
 
South Korea’s KOSPI: The world's hottest stock market just minted a trillion-dollar tech giant
https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-stock-market-samsung-1-trillion-club-ai-boom-2026-5

The A.I. Industry Is Booming. When Will It Actually Make Money?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/the-ai-industry-is-booming-when-will-it-actually-make-money
As Elon Musk sues his former OpenAI partners, A.I. companies are expanding rapidly, but profits are still scarce.