Europe's Dilemma - Welfare versus Growth

Europe Can Be Poor if It Wants—but Does It?
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/europe-can-be-poor-if-it-wantsbut-does-it-83eb3dcd
There’s no moral bar against choosing welfare over economic growth. But don’t deny the trade-off. 

Asian Currencies Under Pressure

Thousands of Miles from the Iran War, Asia’s Currencies Feel the Strain
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/22/business/asia-currency-iran-dollar.html
Soaring oil prices and a surging dollar are testing Asia’s foreign-exchange reserves, which were built up after the 1997 crisis.  

Interesting Take on the Minimum Wage Debate

The Economic Experiment That Upended Reality
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/05/minimum-wage-experiment-worked/687255/
Minimum-wage increases were expected to kill jobs. The fact that they didn’t should make us rethink a lot of assumptions. 

How US Higher Education Became a Joke

60 Percent of Grades at Harvard Were A’s. Enough Is Enough.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/21/opinion/harvard-easy-a-grades.html
 
Parents Are Fuming About Other Peoples’ Kids Getting Extra Time on the SAT
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/parents-are-fuming-about-other-peoples-kids-getting-extra-time-on-the-sat-2daeea8c
Special accommodations for irritable bowel syndrome? Families are getting creative, and spending big, in pursuit of an edge. 

Colleges Are at a Breaking Point
https://www.theatlantic.com/podcasts/2026/05/higher-education-college-crisis/687233/
The AI job market has made tuition look like a dubious investment. But it only exposes the deeper identity crisis in American higher education.

What is the Bond Market Signaling?

The Dangerous Brew That’s Rattling Bond Markets
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-dangerous-brew-thats-rattling-bond-markets-b46def14
A mix of debt, inflation and populism has changed the interest rate landscape since 2020. 

Is the Bond Market Signaling Danger or Opportunity? Or Both?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/20/business/bond-market-investing-global-treasury.html
Interest rates for long-term Treasury bonds have surged to levels last seen in 2007, before the great financial crisis.

See How the Global Government Debt Binge Is Rippling Through Markets
https://www.wsj.com/articles/see-how-the-global-government-debt-binge-is-rippling-through-markets-cb9ce3ca 

Britain’s politicians need to worry less about the bond markets – and more about the Bank of England
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/21/politicians-bond-vigilantes-markets-gilts-bank-of-england

Ignore This Bond Market Slump at Your Own Peril
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/ignore-this-bond-market-slump-at-your-own-peril-87118.html

Myth of the Deserving Billionaire

The Myth of the Deserving Billionaire
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/opposition-to-wealth-taxes-rests-on-a-flawed-assumption-by-teresa-ghilarducci-2026-05
While 55% of Americans say their financial situation is deteriorating, the wealth of the top 1% is reaching record highs. Against this backdrop, defending billionaires from “oppressive” taxation is politically convenient nonsense. 

Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/22/opinion/wealth-tax-millionaires-policy.html

A Dangerous "Ally"

Why Would Anyone Trust Pakistan to Mediate with Iran?
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/why-would-anyone-trust-pakistan-to-mediate-with-iran-b5e8934c
We learned in the 2000s that Islamabad’s interests are in many ways the direct opposite of America’s. 

Depreciation Cost

The Typical U.S. Home Is 44 Years Old—And Needs Tons of Work
https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/the-typical-u-s-home-is-44-years-oldand-needs-tons-of-work-a1fd89ea
The costs of home maintenance and upgrades on America’s aging housing stock are vast and rising fast. 

Demographic Cliff and College Enrollments

The Enrollment Cliff Is Here. Which Schools Will Survive It?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/fault-lines/the-enrollment-cliff-is-here-which-schools-will-survive-it  
As the number of new high-school graduates drops, colleges will close, some will merge, and others may change beyond recognition. 

The AI Mania

Nvidia’s Profit Hits $58.3 Billion as A.I. Boom Gathers More Steam
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/20/business/nvidia-earnings.html
The chip maker said its profit in its most recent quarter jumped 211 percent from a year earlier thanks to extreme demand from other big technology companies.

A Booming Shadow Market of Sketchy A.I. Investments
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/infinite-scroll/a-booming-shadow-market-of-sketchy-ai-investments
As OpenAI’s and Anthropic’s valuations soar, Silicon Valley outsiders are rushing to secure a small slice however they can.

A Cold Shower for the AI Mania by Raghuram Rajan
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-mania-ignoring-risks-compute-shortages-model-plateau-political-backlash-by-raghuram-g-rajan-2026-05
Although generative AI tools have improved rapidly and now outperform humans across many tasks, the market's current euphoria may not be justified. With AI firms increasingly resorting to debt financing, it is worth pausing to consider all the things that could go wrong.
 
Accessible Version:
https://www.interest.co.nz/technology/138615/raghuram-rajan-sees-multiple-reasons-not-least-mounting-debt-worry-current-market 

Should the UK Rejoin the EU?

The Europe dilemma: Should the UK rejoin the EU?
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2026/05/the-europe-dilemma 

Prehistory of A.I. Slop

The Prehistory of A.I. Slop
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/05/25/the-prehistory-of-ai-slop
Before ChatGPT, there was the Plot Robot, Auto-Beatnik, and a century’s worth of schemes for automating authorship. 

China's Property Market

Nine in 10 families in China own a home. But is the property-owning dream being tested?
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/17/china/china-homeownership-rate-tested-intl-hnk 

Edmund Phelps

Edmund Phelps, Who Upended the Way We View Inflation, Dies at 92
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/18/business/economy/edmund-phelps-dead.html
He won a Nobel in 2006 for challenging the conventional wisdom among economists that higher inflation was a necessary price to pay for low unemployment. 
 
Related:
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/our-firm/what-we-do/our-brand/nobel-perspectives/laureates/edmund-phelps.html 

Grad Degree Bubble Bursts

A Master’s Degree Isn’t the Job Guarantee It Used to Be
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/a-masters-degree-isnt-the-job-guarantee-it-used-to-be-53e237aa
New data shows the unemployment rate has rarely been higher in the past 20 years among professionals under 35 with advanced degrees. 

Rising Bond Yields Could Deflate the Equity Bubble

Bond yield spike is risk to unprepared equities market, investors warn 
https://www.reuters.com/business/bond-yield-spike-is-risk-unprepared-equities-market-investors-warn-2026-05-17/
Rising benchmark yields tend to put pressure on equity valuations as companies and consumers will ​face higher borrowing costs. This can also weigh on economic growth and corporate profits. 

Political Dysfunction Stymies UK

The disintegration of British democracy
https://www.ft.com/content/345d6b73-6812-4c34-ab4f-9565805e0f05
We are witnessing the fracturing of the traditional party system that glues our society together.

Britain gets the politics it deserves
https://www.ft.com/content/0cb0f4c5-c324-4626-9b5d-cec7726264b7
Cakeism, impatience and low-quality public discourse contribute to the UK’s instability. 

The Labour Party is dead, and Starmer has killed it
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/labour/2026/05/the-labour-party-is-dead-and-starmer-has-killed-it

Related:
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/why-are-britons-so-fed-up-2026-05-13/

Qatar's Economic Challenges

The War in Iran Is Crippling One of the World’s Wealthiest Nations
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/17/business/qatar-economy-iran-war.html
Iranian attacks have paralyzed Qatar’s vital gas exports and are stalling the tourism and business pivots that were intended to anchor its future growth.  

Industrial Policy, the Developmental State, and the East Asian Miracle

Industrial Policy, Asian Miracle Style
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/jep.20251448
 
The World Bank's East Asian Miracle: Too Much a Product of Its Time?
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/jep.20251449
 
The Role of Standards in the East Asian Miracle
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/bb7b702e-dbf7-4bd8-9141-01a08d520b3c/content
 
The East Asian Miracle Remembered: Tiger Secrets Hidden in Plain Sight
https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/east-asian-miracle-remembered-tiger-secrets-hidden-plain-sight.pdf
 
‘Birds of a Feather’ Shaped East Asia’s Development ‘Miracles’
https://thediplomat.com/2025/07/birds-of-a-feather-shaped-east-asias-development-miracles/
How shared backgrounds among policy elites powered the economic rise of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China.
 
The East Asian Miracle: Where Did Adam Smith Go Wrong?
https://hir.harvard.edu/the-east-asian-miracle-where-did-adam-smith-go-wrong/
 
Beijing’s ‘Industrial Policy of Everything’ Leaves Rest of the World in the Dust
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/beijings-industrial-policy-of-everything-leaves-rest-of-the-world-in-the-dust-8b94a046
Government support encompasses the old, the new, goods and services, micro and macro. Nothing Trump elicits in China will alter this. 

Related:

Critique of Soviet-Style Central Planning:
https://jacobin.com/2026/05/central-planning-soviet-union-socialism

Political Corruption in America

It’s the corruption, stupid!
https://spectator.com/article/corruption-stupid-trump-administration/
The problem Trump faces is that so many of his political bets are riding on what a growing number of voters view as a casino political system. A decade ago, Donald Trump rose to power running against a system he called “rigged” both against him and ordinary Americans. It’s clear that a considerable number of his own ordinary voters have come to believe that it’s Trump himself rigging the system now, and only in his own favor. 

Index Rebalancing and the Rise of Passive Investing

Index rebalancing is now the biggest event in markets
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/05/12/index-rebalancing-is-now-the-biggest-event-in-markets
But profiting from it is another matter.
 
Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, on the rise of passive investing.  
https://youtu.be/CPPiIiPoQuY 

The Surging Stock Market

Party time for stock markets cannot last for ever
https://www.ft.com/content/87c5ebda-a18e-4eeb-8298-d13bdacf4d50
Investor mood is shifting to outright red-hot exuberance.
 
The Stock Market’s Winning Streak Is About to Be Tested
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/business/stocks-bonds-interest-rates-inflation.html
Despite accelerating inflation and possible interest rate increases, the S&P 500 has posted a long weekly winning streak, driven by strong corporate earnings. Can it last?

War, inflation and Trump’s tariffs have shaken the US. Why does the stock market keep going up?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2026/may/14/us-stock-market-war-inflation-tariffs-trump
Wall Street has proved incredibly resilient to instability, and while consumer confidence has dipped, shares have soared. 

Why It’s So Hard to Spot a Stock-Market Bubble
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-its-so-hard-to-spot-a-stock-market-bubble-63f40a1c
A sudden surge in share prices makes us all think we know what’s coming next.

Why Stocks Keep Going Up
https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/2026/05/stock-market-iran-war-bullish/687041/
The boom is not as untethered from reality as it may look. 

Markets are banking on the ‘Bliss trade’
https://www.ft.com/content/60f60089-9486-481c-859c-f29b8ccbbd90
A belief in resilience underwritten by big lasting state support is keeping stocks high.

The Sorry State of Political Leadership in Europe

Starmer is not alone. It is hell to be a leader in Europe today
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/15/starmer-not-alone-hell-to-be-leader-europe/
The PM’s Continental peers are similarly unpopular – and Britain’s economy is not in bad shape. 

Sweden’s Capitalist Makeover

The World’s Most Surprising Capitalist Makeover Is Under Way in Sweden
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/the-worlds-most-surprising-capitalist-makeover-is-under-way-in-sweden-a7830619
Total public social spending is falling, its economy is outpacing European peers and taxes have been cut three years running. Not everyone is happy. 

The Powell Era

How Eight Tumultuous Years Pushed Jerome Powell and the Fed to the Limit
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/how-eight-tumultuous-years-pushed-jerome-powell-and-the-fed-to-the-limit-96388c46
The pandemic, inflation and White House pressure tested the central bank’s leader as never before. 

Jerome Powell’s Mixed Legacy
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/powell-legacy-fed-defender-but-also-policy-mistakes-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2026-05

AI and the Grade Inflation Problem

‘A’ Grades Are Everywhere Since the Arrival of ChatGPT
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/a-grades-are-suddenly-everywhere-since-the-arrival-of-chatgpt-845baae7
AI is accelerating grade inflation, research indicates and making it harder for employers to assess college grads. 

How Buddhism Transformed Asia

The Unlikely Story of How Buddhism Transformed Asia
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/t-magazine/nepal-buddha-kathmandu-buddhism.html
Starting in Nepal, the birthplace of the Buddha, we trace how the religion spread across the continent, changing it forever. 

The Case for More Competition

U.S. Airlines and Carmakers Need to Go Global
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/u-s-airlines-and-carmakers-need-to-go-global-8f76109a
Policies that insulate them from competition created the conditions that led to bailouts and bankruptcies. 

Political Lobbying by Big Tech

Silicon Valley’s A.I. Lobbying Reaches a Fever Pitch 
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/technology/ai-lobbying-washington-openai-anthropic.html

Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/technology/andreessen-horowitz-politics.html 

Obsession with the Future

Do We Think Too Much About the Future?
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/open-questions/do-we-think-too-much-about-the-future
For most of history, people didn’t try predicting it. Maybe that was wise. 

The Politicization of History

Writing the Trump Years into History
https://www.newyorker.com/news/american-chronicles/writing-the-trump-years-into-history
How do you bring an American-history textbook up to date when the country’s past has become a political battleground? 

The American Revolution Wasn’t the Main Event
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/05/11/republic-and-empire-trevor-burnard-andrew-jackson-oshaughnessy-book-review-freedom-round-the-globe-sarah-pearsall
Americans have long imagined that they set off a global age of revolt. Seen within the era’s wider wars of empire, the story looks rather different.

Real Wage Decline

Prices at the Pump Are Wiping Out Wage Gains
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/prices-at-the-pump-are-wiping-out-wage-gains-d16d78c0
Americans’ hourly wages are up. The problem? Inflation is up even more. 

Middle-class Americans' living standards 'in decline at this point' as inflation outpaces wage gains
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/article/middle-class-americans-living-standards-in-decline-at-this-point-as-inflation-outpaces-wage-gains-143939724.html

The Decline of the MBA Degree

There Is a Fire Sale on M.B.A.s
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/there-is-a-fire-sale-on-m-b-a-s-87d56c69
With applications down, more business schools are offering discounts on specialized degrees that promise AI-era training. 

Why Colleges Are Slashing MBA Prices
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/college-tuition-cuts-mba-program-student-loans-da92a98b
The 2025 tax bill capped graduate borrowing at $100,000. Voila.

China versus US

China Increasingly Views Trump’s America as an Empire in Decline
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/business/china-trump-xi-decline.html
For decades, many Chinese viewed the United States with a mix of admiration, envy and resentment. President Trump’s volatile second term shattered that image. 
 
China Seeks A.I. Independence, Weakening Trump’s Leverage
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/business/china-semiconductor-ai-deepseek.html
Before this week’s U.S.-Chinese summit, Beijing reached a milestone in its quest for technological self-sufficiency.
 
Xi’s China: Dazzling Technology, Military Muscle—and an Economic Mess
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/xi-china-technology-military-economy-mess-10eb1e22
China’s government is pouring money into AI, electric cars and military power, while consumer confidence sags and the job market grows bleak. 

China’s ‘Two Billion Feet’ Are Suddenly Running from Nike
https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/nike-china-competition-running-shoes-fbd3b8c6
Quick-moving domestic athletic brands are now able to match American quality and cachet in the hypercompetitive and increasingly nationalistic market.

‘China Shock’ Hits China?

The Factory Town Known as China’s Furniture Capital Is Fighting to Survive
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/the-factory-town-known-as-chinas-furniture-capital-is-fighting-to-survive-0875bc99
The U.S. lost much of its furniture industry to China years ago. Now, American tariffs and overseas competition are punishing manufacturers. 

Related:
https://gsas.harvard.edu/news/david-autor-china-shock-manufacturing-jobs-interview

A Weird Labor Market

A Changing Job Market Leans Against Men

https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/jobs-men-employment-data-ec4d6d68

How to Make Sense of This Strange Job Market
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/job-market-unemployment-rates-charts-55c8e85c
It’s a labor market unlike any other: Unemployment has drifted up, layoffs are low, hiring is slow, and the economy needs far fewer new jobs than it did before.
 
AI Can’t Agree on Which Jobs AI Might Destroy
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-models-job-losses-4d31cb6f
Economists asked ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude which jobs were most exposed to AI. Many times, the answers varied widely. 

Xi and China's Generals

How China’s Leader Lost Faith in His Generals
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/09/world/asia/china-military-generals.html
Xi Jinping spent 13 years building a military to rival that of the United States. But the stronger the Chinese forces grew, the less he trusted the generals he had handpicked to run them. 

Decline of US Soft Power

The End of America’s Soft Power
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/04/trump-soft-power-usa/
The United States has given up on one of its core international strengths. 

Reversing Venezuelan Brain Drain

Trump Celebrated Victory in Venezuela. Will That Bring Its People Back?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/10/world/americas/venezuela-maduro-trump-migration.html
Dire conditions prompted an exodus from the country. After its leader’s ousting, the question is whether things have changed enough to make a return appealing. 

Péter Magyar Interview

Péter Magyar Led Hungarians out of Autocracy. Where Will He Take Them Now?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/peter-magyar-led-hungarians-out-of-autocracy-where-will-he-take-them-now
In his first substantial conversation with a foreign journalist since being elected, the new Prime Minister promised, “We don’t want to build a power machine.” 

Interesting Profile of Usha Vance

Is Usha Vance the mastermind behind J.D. Vance?
https://spectator.com/article/is-usha-vance-the-mastermind-behind-j-d-vance/
Usha studied history at Yale and researched the 17th-century book trade for her MPhil at Cambridge before going on to Yale Law School.
It is well known that J.D. and Usha Vance were set up in law school by their professor, Amy Chua ... 

India's Pro-Trade Shift

India’s New Globalization Raj
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/india-new-globalization-raj-economic-openness-and-liberalization-by-shashi-tharoor-2026-05
India’s deliberate, strategic shift from economic seclusion to global engagement is arguably one of the most consequential structural changes of the 21st century. Indian leaders now understand that self-reliance is achieved through integration, not autarky, and the results speak for themselves. 

Related:

How India Can Supercharge Its Development
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/india/how-india-can-supercharge-its-development
And Really Compete with China.

A Public Debt Milestone

U.S. Debt Is Now Bigger Than the Economy. That’s Not the Real Problem. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/dealbook/debt-100-percent-gdp.html

As U.S. Debt Hits a Worrying Milestone, Washington Barely Notices
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/business/us-debt-trump-policies-budget.html
The debt is outgrowing the size of America’s economy. The president’s policies could accelerate the country’s fiscal headaches, experts say, unless policymakers intervene. 
 
Related:
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/beware-the-bubble--in-the-bond-market-86860.html 

Structural Shifts in Higher Education

More Colleges Are Closing. It’s About Time
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/more-colleges-are-closing-its-about-time-3786b33a
The market for higher education isn’t failing, but it’s taking an awfully long time to adjust.
 
Will A.I. Make College Obsolete?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/fault-lines/will-ai-make-college-obsolete
Americans already distrust institutions, including academia. More and more people may decide that its stamp of approval isn’t worth the cost. 

Why the Future of College Could Look Like OnlyFans
https://www.newyorker.com/news/fault-lines/why-the-future-of-college-could-look-like-onlyfans  
Universities have become generic, one professor and former dean argues. In the A.I. era, students may demand something they can’t get elsewhere.

AI Boom and the Stock Market Rally

Six reasons why America’s stock market rally could keep going

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/06/six-reasons-why-americas-stock-market-rally-could-keep-goin/
The S&P 500 hit a record high even in the face of growing economic uncertainty.
 

South Korea’s KOSPI: The world's hottest stock market just minted a trillion-dollar tech giant
https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-stock-market-samsung-1-trillion-club-ai-boom-2026-5

The A.I. Industry Is Booming. When Will It Actually Make Money?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/the-ai-industry-is-booming-when-will-it-actually-make-money
As Elon Musk sues his former OpenAI partners, A.I. companies are expanding rapidly, but profits are still scarce. 

Related:

https://www.wsj.com/tech/memory-makers-are-the-hottest-thing-in-tech-are-they-making-too-much-money-bad375da

China and the Iran War

China can far outlast America over the Middle East conflict
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/08/china-can-far-outlast-america-over-middle-east-conflict/
Trump’s war with Iran has greatly strengthened the economic and strategic value of Beijing.

How the Iran War Is Shifting Power Toward China
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/how-the-iran-war-is-shifting-power-toward-china
As the U.S.’s credibility and military capacity are tested abroad, China has gained leverage by staying out of the fight and learning from it. 

Global Current Account Imbalances

Imbalances are back on the global agenda
https://www.ft.com/content/72ab51ed-8dcc-46c5-8457-6944d98bf280

A Keynesian solution to global imbalances
https://www.ft.com/content/193eebad-3a12-4b2f-b33e-f4bae1a752a2

Impact of High Gas Prices

The 'K-shaped economy' has shown up at the gasoline pump
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/article/the-k-shaped-economy-has-shown-up-at-the-gasoline-pump-172111222.html
Low-income households have seen the lowest increase in nominal gas spending because they have cut down their consumption by the largest margin. Conversely, high-income households have seen the largest jump in spending because they have done the least to reduce their consumption. ...
The same economic movements are holding true now, the analysis said. When energy prices skyrocket, low-income households reduce their consumption, while higher-income households may only slightly moderate their own consumption. 

America’s Army of Supercommuters Is Reeling Over High Gas Prices
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/high-gas-prices-wreak-havoc-on-americas-army-of-supercommuters-99ee6cc0
While real estate far from big cities is cheaper, filling up for long drives has become painful.

AI and Layoffs

AI Is Forcing CEOs to Make a Stark Choice: Lay Off Workers or Make Them Do More
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-is-forcing-ceos-to-make-a-stark-choice-lay-off-workers-or-make-them-do-more-6b1ed771
Company bosses are splitting into two camps, but neither are calling for more hiring anytime soon.
 
See the Corporate Layoffs So Far in 2026
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/layoffs-2026-tracker-784ea69f
Private-sector job cuts were down 1% in the first quarter, but AI led to 40% more layoffs in tech. 

Resilient Global Economy

Here’s What’s Shoring Up the Global Economy During the Energy Shock
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/global-economy-iran-energy-abd8828f
In the two months since the Strait of Hormuz was closed, many of the world’s major economies have been soldiering on. 

Cronyism in America

The High Cost of Trump’s Crony Diplomacy
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-crony-diplomacy-will-undermine-us-global-power-in-the-long-term-by-brahma-chellaney-2026-05
Effective diplomacy depends on credibility, consistency, and a clear alignment with national interests. The US administration’s personalized, opaque, and venal shadow diplomacy delivers none of that, and it will leave the US less respected, less trusted, and less effective on the world stage.  

A Look Inside the Case That Enshrined Political Power for Billionaires
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/06/us/politics/buckley-case-supreme-court-billionaires.html
After a post-Watergate effort to curtail the role of money in politics, new details show how wealthy Americans were conferred with a “right to spend” on elections.

Germany Has Fiscal Space

Germany Has the Cash to Revitalize Its Economy, but Can’t Seem to Spend It
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/germany-has-the-cash-to-revitalize-its-economy-but-cant-seem-to-spend-it-5bd38dfe
While much of the rest of the developed world is swimming in too much debt, Germany is having trouble using just a tiny bit more. 

A Shrinking Supply of Entry-Level Jobs

A Dozen Young Job Hunters on What It Takes to Get Hired
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2026-job-hunt-stories/
Entering the workforce is especially tough right now. Just ask those trying.
 
A Bad Entry-Level Job Market Is Everyone’s Problem
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-13/a-healthy-economy-depends-on-ample-entry-level-jobs 

These Are the Hiring Hot Spots Where College Grads Are Landing Good Jobs

https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/cities-college-graduate-new-hires-c3771d3d

The best prospects for many 20-somethings are in fast-growing Southern cities such as Birmingham, Ala., Tampa, Fla., and Raleigh, N.C., a new analysis shows.

Profile of a Permabear (Jeremy Grantham)

We’re in the biggest stock market bubble ever, warns British investment oracle
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/03/biggest-stock-market-bubble-ever-british-investment-oracle/
Jeremy Grantham says the inevitable correction could be as grim as the Great Depression. 

‘Double-Dealing’ Pakistan

‘Double-dealing’ Pakistan plots windfall from Iran peacemaker role
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/05/03/pakistan-takes-centre-stage-in-iran-negotiations/
Trump’s favorite field marshal takes center stage in negotiations... but Islamabad’s motives may not be merely altruistic.
 
Related:
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/04/08/double-dealing-pakistan-is-the-danger-looming-over-critical-us-iran-talks/ 

A Tricky Moment in History

America Is Officially an Empire in Decline
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/03/opinion/iran-us-empire.html

A change has come over Trump
https://spectator.com/article/a-change-has-come-over-trump/
CHRISTOPHER CALDWELL:
Trump’s destructive side made him a trusted protest candidate for a disgruntled electorate, and a good ally for the break-all-the-rules types in Silicon Valley. He really is a wrecking ball. But that makes the present situation dangerous. No matter how much it destroys, the United States cannot win this war, because it has been unable to describe, or even establish, what its own interests are. Trump cannot negotiate his way out of the problem because he has exhausted the ability of others to cooperate with him. It has not been lost on the Europeans that he cannot keep his word to those he disagrees with. As for the Iranians, it is tough to pursue negotiations when your negotiating partners are trying to murder you from the air. 

Fuel-Price Crunch Hits the Airline Industry

The Fuel-Price Crunch That’s Turning into a Disaster for Airlines
https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/iran-war-airline-impact-flight-costs-310c8cc7
The higher costs that took down Spirit are squeezing the entire industry, especially budget carriers.
 
Related:
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/travel/ill-miss-spirit-and-the-haters-will-too-d1d965d9
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/02/business/spirit-airlines-shutdown.html 

Chinamaxxing

Chinamaxxing is starting to catch on, in China 
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/23/chinamaxxing-is-starting-to-catch-on-in-china 

Asset Management in the Age of AI

Fund management’s human factor is here to stay by Felix Martin
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/fund-managements-human-factor-is-here-stay-2026-05-01/
Computers have long ⁠been key ​to the $88 trillion ​industry. Now artificial intelligence threatens to remove people ​from stock-picking ​entirely. Yet asset managers ‌depend ⁠on constant evolution, spotting market shifts, and soothing ​clients ​in ⁠a crisis. All these ​require a human ​touch. 

The K-Shaped US Economy - Causes and Consequences

Tracking the K‑Shaped Economy: Who’s Driving Spending?
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/tracking-the-k-shaped-economy-whos-driving-spending/
In recent years, people with higher incomes have increased their spending more than those with lower incomes and the recent growth in retail spending has been mostly due to the high-income households. This pattern extends to incomes within the top of the income distribution as well. This phenomenon is also specific to recent years, not occurring during the pandemic or immediate pre-pandemic period. Reliance on a single segment of the economy has important implications for spending growth and its fragility, as well as for economic vulnerability and policy. 
 
Explaining the K‑Shaped Economy: What’s Behind the Divide?
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/explaining-the-k-shaped-economy-whats-behind-the-divide/
 
Related:
A potentially K-shaped economy creates dilemmas for the Fed by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill - 09/12/25 
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5499218-ai-revolution-job-market/ 

Rate Cut or Rate Hike?

After Months of Debating Rate Cuts, Fed Shifts Toward Mapping Out Hikes
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/after-months-of-debating-rate-cuts-fed-shifts-toward-mapping-out-hikes-db850f74
Three regional bank presidents opposed signaling rate cuts—guidance outgoing Chair Jerome Powell offered little reason to keep.
 
Kevin Warsh Has No Good Reason to Lower Rates
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/kevin-warsh-has-no-good-reason-to-lower-rates-86821.html 

Get A.I. Out of Schools?

What Will It Take to Get A.I. Out of Schools?
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/progress-report/what-will-it-take-to-get-ai-out-of-schools
The tech world assumes that A.I.-aided education is necessary and inevitable. A growing number of parents, educators, and cognitive scientists say the opposite. 

The Wealth Tax Debate is Back

Taxing The Wealthy Won't Reduce Their Power
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/taxing-the-wealthy-won-t-reduce-their-power-86848.html
How Populist Anger Fuels U.S. 'Tax the Rich' Movement
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/how-populist-anger-fuels-u-s---tax-the-rich--movement-86833.html
 
Do Higher Taxes Drive the Rich Away?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/02/upshot/mamdani-tax-the-rich.html
Mayor Zohran Mamdani wants to raise taxes on millionaires. Tax increases elsewhere have not led to an exodus, but some worry the city is reaching a tipping point.  

The Allure of Gold

Why Countries Are Stocking Up on Gold
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/01/business/central-banks-gold-buying.html
As risk has escalated, central banks have bought more gold to stash in reserve. A widening war in the Middle East could add to the urgency.
 
Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/01/business/central-banks-gold-storage.html 

US Military Adventures May Cause a Recession in Europe

It is Trump’s video game war but Europe’s very real recession
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/01/trump-video-game-war-europe-very-real-recession/
Only an end to wishful thinking in the Oval Office will avert a downturn in Europe, the UK and Japan.