Economics and International Affairs Blog: June 2023

Friday, June 30, 2023

Truth about College Costs

The Truth about College Costs
https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/the-truth-about-college-costs
Americans think college tuition is rising out of control. But it would be more accurate to say that tuition rates are dishonest and indecipherable. They are distorted by a system that deliberately lists tuition levels much higher than what students pay, causing needless anxiety for millions of families, forcing college leaders onto an annual high-sticker-price/high-discount merry-go-round, and distorting our debates about student debt.

College prices aren’t skyrocketing—but they’re still too high for some
https://www.brookings.edu/research/college-prices-arent-skyrocketing-but-theyre-still-too-high-for-some/

One Culprit in Rising College Costs: Administrative Expenses
https://www.usnews.com/education/articles/one-culprit-in-rising-college-costs
“The steady growth in administrative and nonteaching staff positions is largely due to broader student support, often referred to as “wraparound services,” in areas such as mental health, entertainment, intramural sports, academic support, workforce preparedness and initiatives focused on diversity, equity and inclusion. Administrative positions in these areas typically are salaried rather than hourly or part-time, and are increasing while the ranks of tenured faculty are flat or declining along with secretarial, maintenance, groundskeeping and other such jobs, experts note”.

My take: Health care and higher education: Key drivers of long-term inflation
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/591995-health-care-and-higher-education-key-drivers-of-long-term-inflation

The End of LIBOR

The End of LIBOR Is (Finally) Here
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/30/business/end-of-libor.html
It has been an arduous process to get the financial system to stop relying on the tarnished interest-rate benchmark.

Interest rate 'rigging' evidence 'covered up' by banks
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65635243
Andy Verity, BBC economics correspondent, notes:
Documents suggest lenders sharply dropped their interest-rate estimates after pressure from central banks. Evidence was not shown to juries at the time when bankers were jailed for smaller-scale interest-rate "rigging". Regulators said they had followed disclosure rules, declined to comment or in one case rebutted the claims.
Some evidence has previously emerged of Bank of England and UK government involvement in manipulation of interest rates. But the evidence indicating it was part of a broader, international drive not just by the UK but by central banks across the western world to push key interest rates down in October 2008 has never been published before.
The evidence indicates that in October 2008, central banks including the Bank of England, the Banque de France, the European Central Bank, Banca d'Italia, Banco de Espana and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York intervened on a large scale in the setting of Libor and Euribor.

Race, Merit, and College Admissions - The Significance of the SCOTUS Decision

For Most College Students, Affirmative Action Never Really Mattered

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/07/03/opinion/for-most-college-students-affirmative-action-was-not-enough.html

Harvard Undermined Itself on Affirmative Action
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/29/opinion/affirmative-action-supreme-court-harvard.html
David French:
To understand why Harvard lost — and why race-based affirmative action in public colleges and federally funded private schools is now unlawful — it’s necessary to understand two key facts about the case. First, the evidence is overwhelming that Harvard actively discriminated against Asian applicants. As Chief Justice John Roberts notes in his majority opinion, a Black student in the fourth-lowest academic decile had a higher chance of admission to Harvard than an Asian student in the top decile.
This discrimination wasn’t unique to Harvard. As Chief Justice Roberts makes clear, the University of North Carolina — which was a defendant in a separate case about its admissions process — also imposed far tougher admission standards on Asian students. Compounding the injustice, Asian Americans were already historically marginalized. As Justice Clarence Thomas details in his concurrence, “Asian Americans can hardly be described as the beneficiaries of historical racial advantages.”

Affirmative Action betrayed black America. It was not true equality
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/01/affirmative-action-betrayed-black-america-not-true-equality/
INAYA FOLARIN IMAN:
Affirmative action betrayed black America. Far from addressing long-standing structural inequalities, it institutionalised the deeply racist idea that black people were incapable of attaining positions of excellence and high achievement on merit alone. It suggested that only through reliance on paternalistic white offerings could they ever succeed.

Why affirmative action in American universities had to go
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/06/30/why-affirmative-action-in-american-universities-had-to-go

On Race and Academia
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/04/opinion/race-academia-preferences.html

Supreme Court Strikes Down Affirmative Action in College Admissions

https://www.wsj.com/articles/supreme-court-rules-against-affirmative-action-c94b5a9c

A majority of Americans say race should not be a factor in college admissions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/29/us/politics/affirmative-action-polls.html

Can Colleges Be Racially Diverse Without Affirmative Action? Experience Suggests No

https://www.wsj.com/articles/supreme-court-affirmative-action-college-admissions-e3de89d8

The affirmative action ruling is big. Now elite colleges need to think bigger.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/01/lawrence-summers-affirmative-action-elite-colleges/

A Middle Ground on Race and College

https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/a-middle-ground-on-race-and-college

Universities want to protect the status quo, because it’s easy for them.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/10/supreme-court-harvard-affirmative-action-legacy-admissions-equity/671869/

Attacking ‘merit’ in the name of ‘equity’ is a prescription for mediocrity
George F. Will observes:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/06/25/attacking-merit-prescription-mediocrity/
“A meritocratic society has less discord than a society that abandons meritocratic principles. Equity, pursued through government-driven allocation of social rewards, drenches society with bitter distributional conflicts because wealth and opportunity are allocated by political power according to shifting standards contested by competing factions. Allowing the market to articulate preferences, without seeking to decide — who will decide who the deciders are? — the preferences’ moral worth, promotes domestic tranquility”.

Payoff-based College Admissions by Frederick M. Hess
https://www.nationalaffairs.com/storage/app/uploads/public/63a/3c2/deb/63a3c2deb56fc934667451.pdf
Elite universities present themselves as bastions of meritocracy. But they routinely offer the children and grandchildren of major donors an easy path to admission, even when those students wouldn't otherwise qualify. Worse yet, the donations that open these doors are tax-deductible, and therefore heavily subsidized by taxpayers. Some questions surrounding college-admissions policies are complex and profound, but this one is painfully simple: We should press college officials to mean what they say about opportunity and equity, and to spend less time strong-arming wealthy donors. But at a bare minimum, we should get taxpayers out of the business of subsidizing campus shakedown artists.

Elite Colleges’ Quiet Fight to Favor Alumni Children
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/13/us/legacy-admissions-colleges-universities.html
Colleges like Yale and Harvard give a boost to legacy applicants. But with affirmative action under attack, that tradition may become harder to defend.

Thursday, June 29, 2023

Wealth Effect and Consumer Spending

There’s a $75 trillion reason the economy won’t crash into a recession, top economist says: Baby boomers’ pent-up net worth
https://fortune.com/2023/06/29/recession-ed-yardeni-consumer-spending-baby-boomers/

Man versus Nature

The surprising upside of climate migration
https://www.economist.com/interactive/briefing/2023/07/01/the-surprising-upside-of-climate-migration

Can society turn down damaging levels of light pollution?
https://youtu.be/zMaOtkgeA8Q

Finance - Interesting Items

‘Hot Money’ Is Piling Up at Banks and It’s Starting to Take a Toll
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-us-banks-expensive-fix-declining-deposits-problem/
Investors scrutinize cost of surging brokered deposits and FHLB loans as midsize banks bear brunt of higher interest rates.

What banks do with your money
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2023/what-banks-do-with-your-money/

Americans love American stocks. They should look overseas
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/06/26/americans-love-american-stocks-they-should-look-overseas
Even if shifting to foreign shares after such a long winning streak feels risky

Wednesday, June 28, 2023

Tea and Dollars

Sri Lanka tea prices dip 40% from record high on production rebound
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Sri-Lanka-crisis/Sri-Lanka-tea-prices-dip-40-from-record-high-on-production-rebound

Fertilizer imports spur supply recovery, buoying crucial export revenue

Why TCM Matters

Turner Classic Movies Is a National Treasure
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/turner-classic-movies-is-a-national-treasure

Nearshoring Benefits Mexico

US Nearshoring Wave Grows as Mexico Exports Jump Close to Record
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-06-28/supply-chain-latest-us-nearshoring-proof-grows-as-mexico-exports-jump

Learning Loss and Academic Performance

Why K-12 education’s alarming decline could be a dominant 2024 issue
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/28/education-decline-campaign-issue/

National test scores plunge, with still no sign of pandemic recovery
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2023/06/21/national-student-test-scores-drop-naep/
Student scores released by the National Assessment of Educational Progress show the single largest drop in math in 50 years.

Labor Issues in India and China

Too Many Workers, or Too Few: India’s Colossal Employment Challenge
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/28/world/asia/india-workforce-economy.html
In some places, educated young people are desperate for steady employment in the world’s most populous nation. In others, factory owners struggle to retain workers.

No Job, No Marriage, No Kid: China’s Workers and the Curse of 35
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/28/business/china-jobs-age-discrimination-35.html

Tuesday, June 27, 2023

Global Competition to Recruit High-Skilled Talent

With new ‘talent visas,’ other countries lure workers trained at U.S. universities
https://hechingerreport.org/thwarted-by-the-u-s-immigration-system-highly-skilled-workers-find-welcomes-elsewhere/
While foreign-born applicants who want to work in the United States face red tape and long delays, new “talent visas” in the U.K., Australia, Canada and elsewhere are luring away people who have some of the world’s most in-demand skills.
Now these countries are homing in on another target: international students being educated at U.S. universities to work in tech and other high-demand fields.

South Korea to issue more skilled worker visas amid labor crunch
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Work/South-Korea-to-issue-more-skilled-worker-visas-amid-labor-crunch

Japan joins Asia race for global talent

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Japan-immigration/On-topic-Japan-joins-Asia-race-for-global-talent

Maximum Canada is happening
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/maximum-canada-is-happening

Building Infrastructure in the US

From the Hoover Dam to the Second Avenue subway, America builds slower
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/27/infrastructure-projects-new-york-subway-hoover-dam/

Years of Delays, Billions in Overruns: The Dismal History of Big Infrastructure
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/28/us/infrastructure-megaprojects.html

Why does it cost so much more to build transportation networks in the US than in the rest of the world?
https://www.vox.com/22534714/rail-roads-infrastructure-costs-america

Why it costs more to build and maintain US infrastructure

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/02/10/why-we-cant-have-nice-things-2/

The Problem with Ultra-Processed Foods

Melted, pounded, extruded: Why many ultra-processed foods are unhealthy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2023/06/27/ultra-processed-foods-predigested-health-risks/
Industrial processing changes the structure of food. Experts say it can affect how much you eat and absorb, your weight and your risk for chronic disease.

Foreign Policy Complications

The Terror of Threes in the Heavens and on Earth
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/26/science/3-body-problem-nuclear-china.html
Physicists have long explored how phenomena in groups of three can sow chaos. A new three-body problem, they warn, could lead to not only global races for new armaments but also thermonuclear war.

America is feeling buyer’s remorse at the world it built
https://www.ft.com/content/77faa249-0f88-4700-95d2-ecd7e9e745f9

Just who stands to benefit from a rules-based international order?
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3225771/just-who-stands-benefit-rules-based-international-order

The India-Japan-Bangladesh triangle is worth watching

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/The-India-Japan-Bangladesh-triangle-is-worth-watching
New Delhi and Tokyo are jointly supporting new infrastructure to counter China

Overpaid Interns

Wall Street's Intern Pay Is Surging with Citadel at $120 an Hour
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-27/wall-street-intern-pay-finance-wages-surge-with-citadel-at-120-an-hour

Future of Urban Centers

St. Louis Is the Struggling Downtown You Haven’t Heard Of
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/27/opinion/st-louis-downtown-doom-loop-pandemic-return-to-office.html

‘I don’t want to become San Francisco’: Urban woes spur state action on housing

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/27/california-affordable-housing-zoning-00103703

Salt Lake City Ups the Ante in Bid to Become a Fintech Hub
https://www.wsj.com/articles/salt-lake-city-fintech-companies-education-ff614b19
A new education center in the city aims to produce employees who are equipped to work in financial technology

Portland Is Losing Its Residents
https://www.wsj.com/articles/portland-ore-is-losing-residents-weary-of-crime-and-high-housing-prices-7b57eec3

Environmental Economics - Interesting Items

A Renowned Economist’s New Idea for Stopping Climate Change
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/26/opinion/climate-change-carbon-linked-bonds.html

Climate change is fueling an insurance crisis. There’s no easy fix.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/06/27/climate-change-is-fueling-an-insurance-crisis-there-no-easy-fix/

Why cement is such a huge climate problem
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2023/06/27/concrete-greenhouse-gas-emissions-cement/

Monday, June 26, 2023

Golden Passports

The ultimate score for rich people? “Golden” passports.
https://www.vox.com/money/23762537/golden-passports-wealthy-explained
A few hundred thousand dollars can buy citizenship in some very pretty places.

Blanchard on Fischer

On Stanley Fischer and MIT by Olivier Blanchard
https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/2023-06/pb23-9.pdf

Markowitz and the Modern Portfolio Theory

Nobel Laureate Harry Markowitz Was a Misunderstood Economist
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/06/26/nobel-laureate-harry-markowitz-was-a-misunderstood-economist/ff169e14-1442-11ee-9de3-ba1fa29e9bec_story.html
The real distinction between investing and gambling is that investors deal in the real economic risk that comes from economic activity, while gamblers create risk with dice or cards or sporting events or other devices in order to bet. But that economic point did not occur to Markowitz, none of his work recognized the connection between security risk and the economy, he optimized portfolios exactly the same way he would approach a gambling game.
Only when real economists picked up on Markowitz’s work did it become economics. The crucial added element was the Efficient Market Hypothesis, or EMH, which is an economic assumption, not a mathematical one. When the economics of EMH is added to the mathematics of MPT, you get the financial revolution that created the Capital Asset Pricing Model and its many descendants.

Varian, Hal. 1993. "A Portfolio of Nobel Laureates: Markowitz, Miller and Sharpe." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7 (1): 159-169.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/jep.7.1.159

What is the Purpose of Travel?

The Case Against Travel
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-weekend-essay/the-case-against-travel

Agnes Callard:

"Imagine how your life would look if you discovered that you would never again travel. If you aren’t planning a major life change, the prospect looms, terrifyingly, as “More and more of this, and then I die.” Travel splits this expanse of time into the chunk that happens before the trip, and the chunk that happens after it, obscuring from view the certainty of annihilation. And it does so in the cleverest possible way: by giving you a foretaste of it. You don’t like to think about the fact that someday you will do nothing and be nobody. You will only allow yourself to preview this experience when you can disguise it in a narrative about how you are doing many exciting and edifying things: you are experiencing, you are connecting, you are being transformed, and you have the trinkets and photos to prove it.".

Material World

In ‘Material World,’ Elements Are Life’s Currency
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/06/25/ed-conway-s-material-world-revels-in-sand-semiconductors-lithium-and-batteries/861ede16-1322-11ee-8d22-5f65b2e2f6ad_story.html

Competitive Job Markets - A Global Perspective

Doha and Dubai Top List of World’s Most Competitive Job Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-22/doha-and-dubai-top-list-of-world-s-most-competitive-job-markets

https://resume.io/blog/the-most-competitive-job-markets-in-the-world

US Housing Market Resiliency

What Is Happening in the U.S. Housing Market?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/26/business/economy/housing-market-construction-cost.html

Home Builders Learn to Love High Rates
https://www.wsj.com/articles/home-builders-learn-to-love-high-rates-c4e2adb7

Sunday, June 25, 2023

Money Markets/Bonds versus Stocks

Yes, There Are Alternatives to Stocks
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/23/business/stocks-bonds-money-market-funds.html
At the moment, money market funds and many bonds are not only less risky, but at current interest rates, they are compelling.

Interest Rates and the Economy

Why Economies Haven’t Slowed More Since Central Banks Hit Brakes
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-economies-havent-slowed-more-since-central-banks-hit-the-brakes-d5103ec7

Did we just dodge a recession?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4024671-did-we-just-dodge-a-recession/

Will the Fed keep interest rates ‘higher for longer’?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4005495-will-the-fed-keep-interest-rates-higher-for-longer/

Saturday, June 24, 2023

Russia in Crisis

For the U.S. and NATO, a Weakened Russia Is More of a Wild Card
https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-the-u-s-and-nato-a-weakened-russia-is-more-of-a-wild-card-edf6fbe2

Amazon Expands in India

Amazon raising investment in India to $26bn by 2030
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Retail/Amazon-raising-investment-in-India-to-26bn-by-2030

Amazon, Google to Expand India Investments After Modi Visit
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-24/amazon-google-to-expand-india-investments-after-modi-visits-us

Heatwave in Texas

The Texas heat wave is so bad, meteorologists are apologizing for it
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/06/23/texas-heat-wave-forecast-records/

Record-breaking Texas heatwave enters third week as thousands lose power
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/24/texas-heatwave-high-temperatures-power

In Scorching Texas, a New Law Puts Workers at Risk
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/06/23/in-record-heat-texas-law-ending-shade-water-breaks-is-cruel/66863ca6-11c0-11ee-8d22-5f65b2e2f6ad_story.html

Friday, June 23, 2023

Inflation in Japan

Japan inflation shows no sign of easing as yen slides further
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Inflation/Japan-inflation-shows-no-sign-of-easing-as-yen-slides-further
From instant noodles to hotels, businesses play catch-up on price hikes

The Upper Middle Class is Worried

When the economy’s winners feel like losers
https://www.vox.com/money/23770003/economy-job-market-rich-poor-middle-class-stocks

India and the West

How India is slowly moving into the American orbit
https://www.ft.com/content/174a1073-a67f-4ccf-b274-c147517e2749

Related: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/indiamerica

The Whitehall Blob is hampering our relationship with India
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/23/we-neglect-india-at-our-peril/
While the US is forging a closer partnership with this vital ally, recognising its role in countering China, we risk falling behind

A Growing India Is Good for the U.S.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-growing-india-is-good-for-the-us-modi-state-visit-8-percent-reform-65f1047d

India's infrastructure and logistics transformation is for real
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/India-s-infrastructure-and-logistics-transformation-is-for-real
By understanding policy environment, companies can capitalize on opportunities

India’s diaspora is bigger and more influential than any in history

https://www.economist.com/international/2023/06/12/indias-diaspora-is-bigger-and-more-influential-than-any-in-history

Modi hails diaspora in trip securing U.S.-India ties

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Modi-hails-diaspora-in-trip-securing-U.S.-India-ties

A Global Crisis Involving CREs?

The office real estate crash will be so sharp and deep that Capital Economics thinks office values are unlikely to recover by 2040
https://fortune.com/2023/06/23/commercial-real-estate-crash-office-values-unlikely-to-recover-by-2040-says-capital-economics/

The World’s Empty Office Buildings Have Become a Debt Time Bomb
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-23/commercial-real-estate-reset-is-causing-distress-from-san-francisco-to-hong-kong
From San Francisco to Hong Kong, higher interest rates and falling property values are bringing the commercial real estate market to a perilous precipice.

Why a Crisis Is Looming in Commercial Real Estate
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-21/why-a-crisis-is-looming-in-commercial-real-estate-quicktake-lj5qetss

Rising Tensions Between India and China

U.S. Drones to Help India Track Chinese Troops on Disputed Border
https://www.wsj.com/articles/drone-deal-will-help-india-track-chinese-troops-on-disputed-border-f7865843

Inside India's strategic Zojila Tunnel near the tense China border
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Inside-India-s-strategic-Zojila-Tunnel-near-the-tense-China-border
Workers brave tough terrain to ensure all-year access for army, residents

India and China Are Locked in a Cycle of Mutual Spite
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/16/india-china-journalism-reporters-diplomacy/

Fareed Zakaria:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/23/us-india-china-interests-people/
Now, the rise of China has finally gotten India’s attention. The 2020 clash in the Himalayas — when Chinese and Indian soldiers fought bitterly over a disputed border area — was a wake-up call for India’s strategic elite and, to some extent, the entire country. Public sentiment shifted sharply, and today a large number of Indians regard China with hostility. For its part, Beijing has done little to try to solve the problem. It has actually reinforced its military infrastructure along the border, which would allow it to surge troops whenever it sees the need. Since the clash three years ago, India has constrained or outright banned many Chinese companies and technologies from operating in its market, including Huawei and TikTok. The threat from China will motivate India to strengthen its ties with the United States for decades to come.

Rise of Korean-American Filmmakers

Celine Song’s Excellent First Feature Film: Past Lives

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-reviews/past-lives-review-greta-lee-celine-song-1235310132/

Religion in Africa

The Competition for Believers in Africa’s Religion Market
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-competition-for-believers-in-africas-religion-market-66e5255d
On a continent whose growing population presents enormous opportunities for Christianity and Islam, both faiths are adapting to charismatic modes of worship and indigenous traditions.

Jihadists in Congo are extending their reach in the region
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/06/22/jihadists-in-congo-are-extending-their-reach-in-the-region

Sticky Inflation – Impact on Investors

Investors must prepare for sustained higher inflation
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/06/22/investors-must-prepare-for-sustained-higher-inflation
Related:
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2023/06/21/inflation-is-as-corrosive-to-investing-as-it-is-to-the-real-economy

Related:
Why investors can’t agree on the financial outlook
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/06/22/why-investors-cant-agree-on-the-financial-outlook

Agricultural Revolution in India

India’s journey from agricultural basket case to breadbasket
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/06/22/indias-journey-from-agricultural-basket-case-to-breadbasket
Technology and market forces are overcoming the heavy hand of the state

Remote Work May Boost Female Labor Force Participation

Remote work appears to be here to stay, especially for women
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2023/06/22/remote-work-family-socialization-time-use/

Thursday, June 22, 2023

Tech Innovation – Beware of the Hype

Crypto shows we shouldn’t venerate ‘innovation’ for its own sake
https://www.ft.com/content/970cbab3-b3f6-44eb-bed3-f688caf094e8
Jemima Kelly notes:
“Why is it, therefore, that we have come to see “innovation” as such an unalloyed good, and why is “stifling” it so unequivocally bad? Surely the objective of the innovation — and the possible repercussions — should matter, too. Innovation might be crucial in making progress in all sorts of areas, such as medicine or science, but we seem to have got to a place where it is the idea itself that we venerate. That is wrong-headed: innovation should not be seen as an end in itself, but as a means of making something better.”

Why Big Tech pretends AI is dangerous
https://www.newstatesman.com/quickfire/2023/05/big-tech-wants-think-ai-is-dangerous
Saying you own a doomsday device only proves your power to investors.

The godfathers of AI are at war
https://www.newstatesman.com/long-reads/2023/06/men-made-future-godfathers-ai-geoffrey-hinton-yann-lecun-yoshua-bengio-artificial-intelligence
Existential threat or humanity’s salvation? The founders of AI don’t know what’s next.

Canada's Bold Immigration Experiment

For proof of the U.S. immigration system’s dysfunction, look to Canada
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/14/canada-h1b-visa-immigration/

Maximum Canada is happening
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/maximum-canada-is-happening

Population Growth Sets Fresh Record in Immigrant-Friendly Canada

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-28/population-growth-sets-fresh-record-in-immigrant-friendly-canada

It’s time for Canada to take its foot off the immigration gas pedal
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-its-time-for-canada-to-take-its-foot-off-the-immigration-gas-pedal/

Mass Immigration Experiment Gives Canada an Edge in Global Race for Labor
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-06-18/canada-s-immigration-policies-may-boost-its-labor-market-economy#xj4y7vzkg

What’s the right number of immigrants for Canada?
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/article-whats-the-right-number-of-immigrants-for-canada/
Related:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-immigration-canada-needs-a-strategy-not-a-numbers-game/

Quebec’s self-inflicted immigration woes
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-quebecs-self-inflicted-immigration-woes/

Immigration: Canada’s economy can’t rely on temporary workers and study permits forever
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-immigration-canadas-economy-cant-rely-on-temporary-workers-and-study/

Canada’s much-touted labor shortage is mostly a mirage
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-canadas-much-touted-labour-shortage-is-mostly-a-mirage/

Turkey Tries Orthodox Economic Policies

The end of Erdoğanomics? Turkey almost doubles interest rates to fight inflation
https://www.politico.eu/article/end-recep-tayyip-erdogan-economics-turkey-double-interest-rate-inflation/

Turkish Central Bank Jacks Up Interest Rates in Reversal for Erdogan
https://www.wsj.com/articles/turkish-central-bank-jacks-up-interest-rates-in-reversal-for-erdogan-8f3865

From Wall Street to the Toughest Job in Turkey
https://www.wsj.com/articles/from-wall-street-to-the-toughest-job-in-turkey-c1fc18bd
New central bank chief Hafize Gaye Erkan faces a tricky economy after a career at Goldman Sachs and First Republic Bank

Brits Reconsider Their History

Britons are starting to examine, at long last, their ignoble colonial history
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-britons-are-starting-to-examine-at-long-last-their-ignoble-colonial/

Wall Street Pay - Lawyers versus Bankers

On Wall Street, Lawyers Make More Than Bankers Now
https://www.wsj.com/articles/on-wall-street-lawyers-make-more-than-bankers-now-ae8070a7
Superstar attorneys can rake in more than $15 million a year, while banker pay has hardly budged

Wednesday, June 21, 2023

Exodus from Flood-Prone Areas

Thousands of Americans are leaving homes in flood-risk areas. But where are they moving to?
https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/21/us/fema-home-buyouts-flood-risk-climate/index.html

Managed retreat: a nationwide study of the local, racially segmented resettlement of homeowners from rising flood risks
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acd654

Housing and the British Economy

Britain has been afflicted by the same curse for more than 50 years
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/06/21/britain-obsession-property-economy-dangerously-exposed/
Our undying obsession with house prices has left the economy dangerously exposed

UK mortgage rates rollercoaster is the price to pay for cheap, short-term deals
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/jun/21/uk-mortgage-rates-rollercoaster-is-the-price-to-pay-for-cheap-short-term-deals

History Lesson: Russia and the West

How Russia Went from Ally to Adversary
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/06/19/how-the-west-lost-the-peace-philipp-ther-book-review
When it came to those reforms, did we give the Russians bad advice, or was it good advice that they implemented badly? And, if it was bad advice, did we dole it out maliciously, to destroy their country, or because we didn’t know what we were doing? Many Russians still believe that Western advice was calculated to harm them, but history points at least partly in the other direction: hollowing out the government, privatizing public services, and letting the free market run rampant were policies that we also implemented in our own country. The German historian Philipp Ther argues that the post-Soviet reform process would have looked very different if it had taken place even a decade earlier, before the so-called Washington Consensus about the benevolent power of markets had congealed in the minds of the world’s leading economists. One could add that it would also have been different two decades later, after the 2008 financial crisis had caused people to question again the idea that capitalism could be trusted to run itself.

Segment from Commanding Heights (2002):

https://youtu.be/s2Ks3_O1i74?t=5423

Conglomerates and Economics Development

Modi’s Vision for India Rests on Six Giant Companies
https://www.wsj.com/articles/modi-india-economy-reliance-industries-adani-group-tata-d2c4f89e
Conglomerates are executing projects with a scale and speed that have eluded India in the past. ‘Era of great concentration.’

Elites and Biased Portrayals of Indian Democracy

India Under Modi: The Establishment Overreacts
https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/india-under-modi-the-establishment-overreacts/
Ever since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party led the National Democratic Alliance to power in 2014, the government’s critics—disproportionately concentrated in academia and the media—have been insisting that it is set to refashion the “idea of India.” Yet as the Modi government enters the final months of its five-year term, it is important to spell out what the regime has not done: It has not remotely compromised democracy, judicial independence, or religious pluralism. The sheer scale of the antipathy shown toward Modi cannot be explained by his governance record. This antipathy springs, rather, from the determination of the erstwhile Establishment to reclaim its old clout and influence from the counter-Establishment that has taken shape under Modi.
PDF Access: http://muse.jhu.edu/article/713725

The best way to strengthen India’s democracy? Leave it to the Indians.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/20/india-democracy-indians-strengthen/

Narendra Modi is the world’s most popular leader
https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/06/15/narendra-modi-is-the-worlds-most-popular-leader
Related:
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/indian-modi-government-high-popularity-despite-mixed-record-by-shashi-tharoor-2023-06

India Tourism

Why India’s lesser-explored southern region is its shining star

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/asia/india/why-indias-lesser-explored-southern-region-shining-star/

Mumbai tour boom reveals startling diversity
https://asia.nikkei.com/Life-Arts/Life/Mumbai-tour-boom-reveals-startling-diversity
India's second city is home to much more than finance and Bollywood movies

Kolkata makes mark as sweetest spot in South Asia
https://asia.nikkei.com/Life-Arts/Life/Kolkata-makes-mark-as-sweetest-spot-in-South-Asia

Green Revolution and Developing/Emerging Economies

Can India Become a Green Superpower?
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/india/can-india-become-green-superpower
The Stakes of the World’s Most Important Energy Transition

The green transition won’t happen without financing for developing countries
https://www.ft.com/content/770aadbb-1583-40ae-b072-9ef44c27cc15

India’s Quest to Build the World’s Largest Solar Farms
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dept-of-energy/indias-quest-to-build-the-worlds-largest-solar-farms

India and the U.S. Share Key Interests in the Energy Transition

https://www.barrons.com/articles/india-us-modi-biden-meeting-clean-energy-aba169d

Pakistan - A Troubled State

Pakistan's perma-crisis
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/06/01/pakistans-perma-crisis

Pakistan’s always-troubled democracy is on the brink once again
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2023/05/26/pakistans-always-troubled-democracy-is-on-the-brink-once-again/

Pakistan's economic meltdown spurs more people to risk lives to reach Europe
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistans-economic-meltdown-spurs-more-people-risk-lives-reach-europe-2023-06-23/

In missing submersible and migrant disaster, a tale of two Pakistans
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/21/titanic-submersible-greece-migrant-ship-pakistan/

Pakistani Taliban's 'shadow province' threatens China BRI projects
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Terrorism/Pakistani-Taliban-s-shadow-province-threatens-China-BRI-projects
Extremist group aims to create parallel government in conflict-wracked Balochistan

Florida is No Longer a Cheap Place to Live

Florida Is Losing Its Affordability Edge After Drawing a Flood of New Arrivals
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-17/move-to-florida-home-price-boom-makes-it-among-least-affordable-housing-markets
The state's housing frenzy is starting to subside as higher mortgage rates and soaring insurance costs erode some of its attractiveness with newcomers.

Assortative Mating - Interesting Items

The professions most likely to be paired up in marriage, and more!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/06/16/what-does-your-job-say-about-whom-youll-marry/

Rich Like Me: How Assortative Mating Is Driving Income Inequality

https://quillette.com/2019/10/18/rich-like-me-how-assortative-mating-is-driving-income-inequality/

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/02/how-i-when-harry-met-sally-i-explains-inequality/283517/

A NYTIMES piece notes:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/upshot/rise-in-marriages-of-equals-and-in-division-by-class.html

“Assortative mating is the idea that people marry people like themselves, with similar education and earnings potential and the values and lifestyle that come with them. It was common in the early 20th century, dipped in the middle of the century and has sharply risen in recent years — a pattern that roughly mirrors income inequality in the United States, according to research by Robert Mare, a sociologist at the University of California, Los Angeles. People are now more likely to marry people with similar educational attainment — even after controlling for differences between men and women, like the fact that women were once less likely to attend college.”

Interesting graphic from Bloomberg – This Chart Shows Who Marries CEOs, Doctors, Chefs and Janitors
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-who-marries-whom/

Tyler Cowen on Assortative Mating and Rising Inequality

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/27/upshot/marriages-of-power-couples-reinforce-income-inequality.html

Assortative Mating and the US Marriage Market

The Economist notes –

http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21679220-most-americans-would-get-married-if-only-they-could-find-someone-suitable-demand-meet

“While fewer women are marching to the altar—the proportion of those married before the age of 30 has fallen from 50% in 1960 to around 20% today—the ones that do increasingly look like Leah. Highly educated, financially independent women were once among the least likely to get hitched. Now they are getting married at a faster rate than their lesser-educated peers, and often to highly educated men. These unions are not only the most common, but also the most harmonious. New data show that America’s divorce rate has continued its plunge from its 1981 peak—from 5.3 to 3.2 divorces per 1,000 people in 2014—but this decline is largely concentrated among the better-educated. Among college graduates who married in the early 2000s, only around 11% divorced within seven years, according to data from Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan.”

Interesting results from a Spanish study:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/18/in-love-opposites-dont-attract-and-thats-a-big-problem-for-inequality/
People selecting spouses primary from their their own 'class' (determined by income/education level) has significant effect on future generations. The above post notes:

“The tendency of people to marry someone similar, which economists call "assortative mating," is one of the most important factors in determining how wealth is distributed throughout a society and whether children are born with genuinely equal opportunities to succeed.”

http://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2015/12/assortative-mating-and-rising-inequality.html

Marriage Stability - Impact of Education and Income Levels

Educated Americans Paved the Way for Divorce—Then Embraced Marriage

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/01/education-divide-marriage/579688/

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/12/04/education-and-marriage/

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2013/article/marriage-and-divorce-patterns-by-gender-race-and-educational-attainment.htm

https://qz.com/1069806/the-highest-and-lowest-divorce-rates-in-america-by-occupation-and-industry/