Attention Economy


Saturday, April 30, 2022

Stock Performance During the First Four Months of 2022

The Stock Market Isn’t Falling Like It Did In the 1970s—It’s Even Worse
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-dow-nasdaq-sp-500-51651273777
“Bad” might not do it justice. After dropping 3.3% this past week, the S&P 500 index has fallen 13% during the first four months of the year, its worst start since 1939. But the Dow Jones Industrial Average, after falling 2.5% for the week, has slumped 9.2% in 2022, its worst start since 2020. Not to be outdone, the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 3.9% during the week, putting it down 17% for the first four months of the year. That’s its worst start to a year on record going back to 1971. 

Wall Street Is Battered by Rising Fear About the Economy
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/29/business/april-stocks-inflation.html

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Corporate Profits and Inflation

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India's Foreign Minister Sets the West Straight on "Rules and International Order"

 

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Rising Political Discontent in the West

US Politics
Seven Lessons Democrats Need to Learn — Fast
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/opinion/seven-lessons-democrats-need-to-learn-fast.html David Brooks notes:
“Don’t politicize everything. Education has traditionally been a Democratic strong point. A Washington Post/ABC News poll in 2006 found that voters trusted Democrats over Republicans to do a better job handling education by over 20 points. When the Post/ABC poll asked about the issue last November, the advantage was down to three points. Part of the drop is probably due to the teacher unions’ preference to keep schools closed during the pandemic, part possibly the attacks by some progressives on magnet schools and gifted programs, part the perception that progressives care more about their cultural agenda than actual education. Republicans have certainly politicized education, too, but for some reason it seems to work for them, while it doesn’t for Democrats”.
 
How DeSantis Transformed Florida’s Political Identity
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/us/politics/ron-desantis-florida-politics.html
 
Abbott Threatens to Declare an ‘Invasion’ as Migrant Numbers Climb
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/30/us/texas-border-abbott.html
 
European Politics
Identity Politics in UK
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-needs-kemi-badenoch-but-not-just-yet
“It seems to many of us that British society is falling apart and that this – even more than our present economic difficulties – is the biggest problem politics has to deal with.
This falling apart is not by accident, but by the design of a new cult of leftism that seeks to divide people into rigid identity groups ranked in a hierarchy of vice and virtue based upon the privilege they are said to have enjoyed or the oppression they have suffered”.
 
What the hell is wrong with Westminster?
https://www.politico.eu/article/what-the-hell-is-wrong-with-westminster-bullying-sexual-assault/
 
HOW CLIMATE CHANGE IS FUELING THE RISE OF SPAIN'S FAR RIGHT
https://www.politico.eu/article/climate-change-spain-andalucia-far-right-vox-election-2022/
 
France divided: what does fractured vote mean for Macron’s second term?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/france-divided-what-does-fractured-vote-mean-for-macron-second-term
Related:
https://www.politico.eu/article/how-marine-le-pen-conquered-the-french-countryside/ 

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The Chicken and Egg Problem

US egg factory roasts alive 5.3m chickens in avian flu cull – then fires almost every worker
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/apr/28/egg-factory-avian-flu-chickens-culled-workers-fired-iowa

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Friday, April 29, 2022

Economic Sanctions: Unintended Consequences


Jonathan Haslam, Professor of the History of International Relations at the University of Cambridge, notes:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/can-sanctions-topple-putin-
“A downside of sanctions, however, is that they harm those imposing them. They also present a dire prospect for third parties, namely those in the Third World. The loss of exports from Russia and Ukraine, both major players in the international grain market, is an urgent issue for the World Bank: starvation is lurking around the corner. Sanctions are also undercutting western economies, which face fast rising inflation as bad as the 1970s: at more than eight per cent in the US and not much less in Germany and Britain. Shortages in basic commodities from Russia will exacerbate prices even further. The International Monetary Fund now anticipates that global growth this year will almost halve from last year, down from 6.1 per cent to 3.6 per cent”.
 
Governments Tighten Grip on Global Food Stocks, Sending Prices Higher
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/30/business/economy/global-food-prices-ukraine.html
 
Sunflower Oil ‘Vanishes’ as Ukraine War Grinds On
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/30/world/europe/cooking-oil-shortage-ukraine.html

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Dubai's Growing Allure

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Severity of the Next Recession

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Boom Time for Oil Majors and Energy Exporters

Oil Giants Buoyed by High Oil Prices Shower Investors with Cash
https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-giants-buoyed-by-high-oil-prices-shower-investors-with-cash-11651231218
 
War Is Making One of the Richest Countries Even Richer
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-04-29/war-in-ukraine-is-making-qatar-even-richer-as-europe-ditches-russian-gas
Hosting the football World Cup is a coup for Qatar, but it’s Europe’s hunt to replace Russian natural gas that will give the Gulf state real influence. 

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Thursday, April 28, 2022

Understanding Nationalism

Stephen M. Walt, the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University, notes:
Elites may also discount the power of nationalism if they spend their lives in a transnational, cosmopolitan bubble. If you go to the World Economic Forum conference held in Davos, Switzerland, every year; do business deals all over the world; hang out with like-minded people from lots of different countries; and are as comfortable living abroad as you are in your native country, it’s easy to lose sight of how people outside your social circle retain powerful attachments to places, local institutions, and their own sense of belonging to a nation. Liberalism’s emphasis on the individual and his/her/their individual rights is another blind spot, insofar as it directs our gaze away from the social bonds and commitments to group survival that many groups view as more important than individual freedom.

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College Admissions - Controversies

U.S. public continues to view grades, test scores as top factors in college admissions
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/04/26/u-s-public-continues-to-view-grades-test-scores-as-top-factors-in-college-admissions/

Racial Preferences on Campus: Trends in Asian Enrollment at U.S. Colleges
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/verbruggen-trends-in-asian-enrollment-at-us-colleges.pdf
This report begins by showing that Asian-Americans are generally overrepresented at the highest levels of academic achievement, and that this overrepresentation has become more pronounced as the Asian share of the population has grown. Using federal data on college enrollment by race—but mindful of the limits of such data—it then sorts colleges according to their admittance rates and test scores for the purpose of tracking changes in the share of Asian students at different types of four-year colleges that grant bachelor’s degrees.
The upshot is that at most types of schools, a predictable pattern emerges: As the Asian share of the college-age population rose, so did the Asian share at these colleges, with the growth most pronounced at the most selective schools. At the very top schools, however, an odd pattern emerged. The percentage of Asian enrollment stagnated around the mid-1990s but then began to grow again around 2010, with the exact patterns shifting slightly depending on how the numbers are calculated.
These are, to be clear, descriptive exercises using less-than-perfect data, and they do not prove discrimination at any specific school. But they are certainly consistent with claims that elite schools in general worked to limit the number of Asian students admitted in order to avoid overly skewing their campuses’ racial balances—and perhaps backed away from this practice as the Harvard lawsuits and other efforts drew attention to the allegations.
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US GDP Shrank in 2022Q1

U.S. Economy Shrank in First Quarter, but Underlying Measures Were Solid
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/business/economy/us-gdp-q1-2022.html

U.S. Economy Posts Surprise Contraction, Belying Solid Consumer
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-28/u-s-economy-contracted-in-first-quarter-on-surge-in-trade-gap
The U.S. economy unexpectedly shrank last quarter, the first contraction since 2020, as a ballooning trade deficit and softer inventory growth belied an otherwise solid consumer and business demand picture.
Gross domestic product fell at a 1.4% annualized rate after a 6.9% pace of growth at the end of 2021, the Commerce Department’s preliminary estimate showed Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a 1% increase.

Advance Estimate Indicates that the US GDP Shrank in 2022Q1
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2022-advance-estimate

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US Monetary Policy Spillover Effects

America’s Inflation Solution Could Become the World’s Problem
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/opinion/fed-inflation-interest-rates-third-world-debt.html 

Related:

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Revolt of the College-Educated Working Class

The Revolt of the College-Educated Working Class
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/business/college-workers-starbucks-amazon-unions.html
Since the Great Recession, the college-educated have taken more frontline jobs at companies like Starbucks and Amazon. Now they’re helping to unionize them. 

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Wednesday, April 27, 2022

The Stock Rout

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Energy Needs and Climate Change Concerns

This Eminent Scientist Says Climate Activists Need to Get Real
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/04/25/magazine/vaclav-smil-interview.html
 
Can Japan Keep the Lights On? The Ukraine War Upends a Big Energy Bet.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/27/business/japan-energy-ukraine-war.html 

Rising authoritarianism and worsening climate change share a fossil-fueled secret
https://theconversation.com/rising-authoritarianism-and-worsening-climate-change-share-a-fossil-fueled-secret-181012



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Made it to the Top - Most Popular List on The Hill

The following piece is the most popular story on The Hill site today (see attached screenshot)
Is the US housing market headed for a price correction?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3466071-is-the-us-housing-market-headed-for-a-price-correction/ 



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Oil and Natural Gas: Rising Geopolitical Tensions

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Tuesday, April 26, 2022

US and Tampa Housing Market

Real estate: Why Tampa suddenly has the hottest housing market in the U.S.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-estate-tampa-hottest-housing-market-us-190202227.html
Tampa, Florida, was rated 2022’s hottest housing market by Zillow (Z, ZG), beating out other Florida cities as well as other major metros like Phoenix and Austin, Texas. The city outranked other markets due to its number of potential buyers, scarcity of homes, home sales, and flourishing job market. Tampa's home values are also expected to grow at their fastest pace this year.

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Stock Markets versus Tight Labor Markets

Hot Job Market, an Economic Relief, Is a Wall Street Worry
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/26/business/economy/jobs-wall-street.html
This year’s decline in stock prices follows a historical pattern: “When unemployment is ultra- low, the uppity times are behind us,” a bank research chief said. 

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The Far Right in Europe

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Monday, April 25, 2022

Pop Psychology, Fads, and the Rise of ‘Business Experts’

Business gurus are killing productivity with their pop science cults
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/25/businesses-must-get-rid-new-gurus-fads/
ANDREW ORLOWSKI notes:
“Gladwell’s peculiar talent as a storyteller was to find quirky or counter-intuitive stories, and masterfully maintain the suspense, so by the time the banal revelation arrived, it had the quality of a world-shattering epiphany.
This was also the formula behind the hugely successful book Freakonomics, published in 2005, subtitled “the Hidden Side of Everything”. The established Gladwell and Freakonomics transformed business publishing….
Aided by the TED Talks franchise and the emergence of social media, the barrier to becoming a public intellectual, or a business guru, got lower every year. All one needed was an appetite for self-promotion, and a quirky observation or two. An eager readership in marketing departments, typically the most insecure and fad-obsessed corner of any company, couldn’t get enough”. 

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Fed Finally Wakes Up to the InflationThreat


Fed’s Daly Calls for ‘Expeditious’ Rate Increases to End Year at Neutral Levels
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-s-daly-calls-for-expeditious-rate-increases-to-end-year-at-neutral-levels-11650468302
 
Fed’s Powell Could Seal Expectations of Half-Point Rate Rise in May
https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-powell-could-seal-expectations-of-half-point-rate-rise-in-may-11650533444  

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Evaluating Policy Responses to the Pandemic Shock

Rapid Inflation, Lower Employment: How the U.S. Pandemic Response Measures Up
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/25/business/economy/us-global-inflation-response.html
 
Covid Lockdowns Revive the Ghosts of a Planned Economy
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/25/business/china-covid-zero-economy.html 

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Sunday, April 24, 2022

European Identity

European identity is amorphous and unstable, but an abiding theme, as a new history of the idea of Europe attests, is a sense of superiority
https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2022/04/europes-superiority-complex 


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Long-Run Growth and Economic Development

An optimist’s guide to the future: the economist who believes that human ingenuity will save the world
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/apr/30/an-optimists-guide-to-the-future-the-economist-who-believes-that-human-ingenuity-will-save-the-world

Oded Galor explores the ancient roots of modern life
https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/2022/04/oded-galor-explores-the-ancient-roots-of-modern-life
In his new history the economist chronicles how humanity escaped subsistence poverty, bringing prosperity, longevity and lasting inequality. 

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Anti-Intellectualism and America's Strange Distrust of Experts

Michael Lewis on why Americans don’t trust experts
https://www.vox.com/vox-conversations-podcast/23030205/vox-conversations-michael-lewis-against-the-rules-experts
How a society that is so good at creating knowledge can be so bad at applying it.

Dunning–Kruger effect
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect
“In the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability. It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability. Without the self-awareness of metacognition, people cannot objectively evaluate their competence or incompetence”

Author Lionel Shriver notes:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/from-trumpism-to-lockdown-people-believe-in-the-craziest-things
“At its inception, the internet promised instant universal access to more information than people had ever historically enjoyed by orders of magnitude. During the web’s early days in the 1990s, expectations were idealistically high. …
Little did we anticipate that loads of information is not the same thing as loads of accurate information. We didn’t remember what people are like. We form opinions first and look for evidence later. We believe what we want to believe, and we’re suckers for whatever promotes our perceived self-interest. We’re not, in the main, rational creatures, and act more from emotion than reason. We prefer interaction with the like- minded, who fortify what we already think — meaning we instinctively seek out the very antithesis of education. If anything, the internet has made us stupider”. 

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The Case for Meritocracy in Education

Johns Hopkins’ president: legacy admissions ‘seemed antithetical to the values of merit’
https://www.ft.com/content/504c96a7-8c69-4b50-88e5-500ffe0ffe22
“When Ronald Daniels was appointed president of Johns Hopkins University in 2009, he set himself a tough task that put him at odds with many of its own faculty and alumni: to abolish its longstanding but inequitable practice of “legacy admissions”, offering preferential access for students with family connections in favour of purely merit-based applications.
The legacy system remains widespread among America’s elite and intensely competitive higher education institutions, allowing those who have themselves attended — and have often pledged significant donations — to benefit from an easier path for their own children or other close relatives…
Daniels found shocking the data for the Baltimore university’s “freshman” undergraduate class that year: 12.5 per cent were legacy students, outweighing the 9 per cent of low-income entrants eligible for federal government Pell financial aid grants”. 


Attacking ‘merit’ in the name of ‘equity’ is a prescription for mediocrity
George F. Will observes:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/06/25/attacking-merit-prescription-mediocrity/
“A meritocratic society has less discord than a society that abandons meritocratic principles. Equity, pursued through government-driven allocation of social rewards, drenches society with bitter distributional conflicts because wealth and opportunity are allocated by political power according to shifting standards contested by competing factions. Allowing the market to articulate preferences, without seeking to decide — who will decide who the deciders are? — the preferences’ moral worth, promotes domestic tranquility”. 

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Saturday, April 23, 2022

Poor Quality K-12 Education Hurts College Preparedness

After the pandemic disrupted their high school educations, students are arriving at college unprepared
https://hechingerreport.org/after-the-pandemic-disrupted-their-high-school-educations-students-are-arriving-at-college-unprepared/
"Now, after two years of cobbled-together pandemic learning, many college students not only are less prepared than they should be, they’ve forgotten how to be students…
Uri Treisman, is nationally known for his techniques and philosophies for teaching calculus. He said the fall 2021 semester of first-year calculus was the most difficult he’s had in his 50-year career.
His students were making basic errors in algebra and trigonometry from the beginning. Despite Treisman doing all he could to help them succeed, about 25 percent of his students failed in the fall — compared to 5 percent in an ordinary year. …
And during the 2020-21 academic year, UT adopted a policy allowing students to designate up to three of their courses to be graded as pass/fail, rather than with letter grades, Patterson said. The standard policy, pre-pandemic, wouldn’t allow students to take advantage of pass/fail grading until they had completed at least 30 credits, which typically excludes first-year students. The emergency policy allowed students to “pass” these classes with a grade as low as a D minus, so students who earned a D grade in a prerequisite course could move on without necessarily having mastered the material".
 
Middle school science teachers often have shaky scientific knowledge
https://hechingerreport.org/minimal-qualifications-for-middle-school-science-teachers-allow-misinformation-to-creep-into-classrooms/

National English-teaching group loses grip on reality at terrible time
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2022/05/01/national-council-english-teachers-change-position/

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Best Performing Cities - 2022 Rankings


Exodus from Urban Counties Hit a Record in 2021
https://eig.org/exodus-from-urban-counties-hit-a-record-in-2021/

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Stock Market Performance During Mid-Term Election Years

Why Midterm Election Years Are Tough for the Stock Market
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/22/business/stocks-elections-midterm-biden.html 

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Friday, April 22, 2022

Strengthening Indo-UK Ties

Modi and Johnson agree on new Anglo-Indian security partnership
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Modi-and-Johnson-agree-on-new-Anglo-Indian-security-partnership
The prime ministers of India and the U.K. agreed Friday on a new and expanded defense and security partnership and committed to completing a free trade deal by the end of the year. 

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Doing Business in the Age of Culture Wars

How Disney found itself in the middle of a culture war

Disney to Lose Special Tax Status in Florida
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/21/business/disney-florida-special-tax-status.html
Lawmakers in the state voted to revoke the company’s special designation following a dispute with Gov. Ron DeSantis over a new education law. 

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Rethinking US Foreign Policy Goals, Objectives, and Instruments

Washington's clumsy attempts to bully India must stop
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Washington-s-clumsy-attempts-to-bully-India-must-stop
Undermining its relationship with New Delhi will cost the U.S. dearly

Treasury Aims for Economic Pain on Russia, but Critics Question Effectiveness
 
Ross Douthat notes:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/02/opinion/putin-ukraine-russia.html
But externally imposed sanctions, economic warfare, often end up strengthening the internal power of the targeted regime. In the short run, they supply an external scapegoat, an obvious enemy to blame for hardship instead of your own leaders. In the long run, the academic literature suggests, they may make states more repressive, less likely to democratize.
 
Acknowledging the Limits of Sanctions
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/22/opinion/sanctions-russia-ukraine-war.html
 
Germany’s economy is expected to contract under a Russian gas embargo.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/22/business/germany-economy-russian-gas.html
The country’s central bank warned that an abrupt end of gas imports from Russia could cause Germany’s economic output to plunge and inflation to jump.

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Thursday, April 21, 2022

Yen Drops to a 20-Year Low

Yen falls to ¥129 against U.S. dollar, refreshing a 20-year low
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/04/20/business/129-yen-against-dollar/
Why has the yen fallen to a 20-year low?
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/podcast/yen-fallen-20-year-low/ 

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Inflation Blues

B.B. King (circa 1983):
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The Netflix Crash

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Chip Stock Valuations

The end of one-chip wonders: Why Nvidia, Intel and AMD’s valuations have experienced massive upheaval
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-end-of-one-chip-wonders-why-nvidia-intel-and-amds-valuations-have-experienced-massive-upheaval-11649786169 

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Another Piketty Interview

Thomas Piketty on the Politics of Equality
https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/thomas-piketty/ 

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Wednesday, April 20, 2022

Political Risk in Europe

War, Inflation and Politics Put Europe at Greater Recession Risk
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-04-19/war-inflation-and-politics-put-europe-at-greater-recession-risk
 
French election: Macron and Le Pen clash in TV presidential debate
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61166601
 
‘She’s radiant’: what French voters like about Le Pen this time
https://www.ft.com/content/12e988ba-2f7d-4a50-8836-c1c372eb3e7e
 
France: A Le Pen victory a burden on France's budget?
https://www.dw.com/en/france-a-le-pen-victory-a-burden-on-frances-budget/a-61509590
 
Sweden: Far-right anti-Islam politician taps into backlash against immigration
https://www.dw.com/en/sweden-far-right-anti-islam-politician-taps-into-backlash-against-immigration/a-61523994 

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Nepotism and Corruption in America - Legacy Admissions

The Shame Deficit
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/ban-legacy-college-admissions-nepotism/629566/
As a transplant from England, I’ve been repeatedly struck by the weakness of norms against nepotism in the American elite—particularly the continued practice of legacy admissions. 

Richard Reeves notes:
“What’s needed here is a change in social norms. Many upper-middle-class parents feel little compunction about pulling every string possible to get their offspring a place at a prestigious college, even if that means elbowing out a more qualified but less fortunate applicant. The prevailing norm in the U.S. is that parents should do everything possible to help their children get ahead of others. This doesn’t have to be ethical. It just has to be legal.
The only mistake made by the parents caught in Operation Varsity Blues was to cross that line, a line that Andrew Lelling, the Massachusetts U.S. district attorney prosecuting the case, helpfully drew for us. “We’re not talking about donating a building so the school is more likely to take your son or daughter,” he said. “We’re talking about deception and fraud, fake test scores, fake athletic credentials, fake photographs, and bribed college officials.” It’s okay to get your child a place by making a donation, just not with a bribe. In 1998, the real-estate developer Charles Kushner gave $2.5 million to Harvard; in 1999, his son Jared was accepted to the college, even though, as the journalist Daniel Golden reported, Jared’s academic record was less than stellar. No problem. It is absolutely fine for your kids to get preferential treatment if you attended the college in question”.

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The Economist on Global Tech Clusters

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Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Global Peace - Theory versus Reality

The False Promise of Democratic Peace
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/democratic-peace-theory-is-wrong-by-robert-skidelsky-2022-04
Clinging to the assumption that only dictatorships start military conflicts, proponents of democratization believed that the global success of their project would usher in a world without war. But this theory lacks a sound foundation and has produced one disaster after another when put into practice. 

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India-Australia Ties – Key for Stability in the Asia-Pacific Region

India and Australia's winning deal on trade will boost the Quad
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/India-and-Australia-s-winning-deal-on-trade-will-boost-the-Quad 

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The Tech Bubble

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The Future of Work

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Monday, April 18, 2022

Storing Energy

The Renewable-Energy Revolution Will Need Renewable Storage
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/04/25/the-renewable-energy-revolution-will-need-renewable-storage
Can gravity, pressure, and other elemental forces save us from becoming a battery-powered civilization? 

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Saturday, April 16, 2022

Weekend Readings - Interesting Items

Travel’s ‘Great Comeback’ Has a Price: Chaos
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/16/travel/europe-travel-covid-comeback.html
 
The Sky-High Pandemic Housing Market Finds Gravity Does Exist
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/16/business/economy/housing-market-interest-rates-prices.html

What Do Patents Have to Do with Soaring Health Care Costs? A Lot.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/16/opinion/patents-reform-drug-prices.html
 
Can Silicon Valley still dominate global innovation?
https://www.economist.com/business/can-silicon-valley-still-dominate-global-innovation/21808708
 
Several Million U.S. Workers Seen Staying Out of Labor Force Indefinitely
https://www.wsj.com/articles/several-million-u-s-workers-seen-staying-out-of-labor-force-indefinitely-11650101400
 
Rotting fruit, spoiled vegetables: How Texas just made the supply chain even worse
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/16/economy/texas-mexico-abbott-border-economic-impact/index.html
 
Why Ukraine’s Wheat Fields Sow Dictators’ Megalomania
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-16/ukraine-s-wheat-fields-sow-putin-s-megalomania 

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Friday, April 15, 2022

CEO Interview - Niren Chaudhary of Panera Bread

How Panera Bread Navigated Covid, the Labor Market, Inflation and More
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/15/business/panera-niren-chaudhary-corner-office.html 

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China's Increasingly Draconian Zero-Covid Policy

 

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Wall Street Pay Bubble?

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Economic Consequences of the Ukraine War

Tunisia among countries seeing major economic consequences from war in Ukraine
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/04/14/ukraine-war-economic-impact-tunisia/
 
The war in Ukraine unsettles countries all around the world
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/15/ukraine-unsettles-global-economy-inflation-shortages/
 
Fuel Prices Send Airfares Higher, but Travelers Seem Ready to Pay
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/15/business/energy-environment/fuel-prices-travel-cost.html 

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Wednesday, April 13, 2022

The Global Monetary System

China scrambles for cover from West's financial weapons
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/China-scrambles-for-cover-from-West-s-financial-weapons
Spooked by sanctions on Russia, Beijing looks to build on its own international payments system 

The weaponization of finance threatens the future of the dollar standard | The Hill
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/596116-the-weaponization-of-finance-may-threaten-the-future-of-the-dollar-standard


Western Massachusetts Challenges the U.S. Dollar
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/08/04/crypto-goes-farm-to-table-00048309
An idyllic New England county is getting its own digital money, with implications for local autonomy.

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The Case for Ireland

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Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Xi Reconsiders his 'Common Prosperity' Agenda

China Sets Aside Push to Spread Wealth in Pivotal Year for Xi
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/business/china-economy-covid.html
Xi Jinping’s rhetoric about redistributing wealth was aimed partly at drumming up public support. But it unnerved entrepreneurs and posed a drag on growth.
 
I noted the following back in Sept 2021:
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/573971-chinas-future-hinges-on-xis-radical-economic-reforms/
“Chinese authorities are also aggressively (some say too aggressively) tackling the rise in income and wealth inequality. The controversial push to attain “common prosperity” has created considerable uncertainty among China’s entrepreneurial elites. Instead of relying purely on market forces to ensure redistribution or primarily on Western-style progressive taxation and redistribution models, Xi Jinping’s China is pushing for a third alternative. The “common prosperity” approach is more reliant on societal pressure backed up by a regulatory squeeze to force the highly successful and the wealthy to share their good fortunes with broader segments of the society. There is a real danger that authorities might overreach and curtail the innate entrepreneurial vigor of Chinese society and limit the country’s future growth prospects”. 

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Oleg Itskhoki – Winner of the 2022 John Bates Clark Medal

Oleg Itskhoki – Winner of the 2022 John Bates Clark Medal
https://www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/honors-awards/bates-clark/oleg-itskhoki
“Through his masterful application of empirical and theoretical tools, Itskhoki has revisited classic questions in both international finance and international trade, resolving long-standing puzzles and offering new economic insights into important phenomena in international economics. He is a worthy recipient of the Clark Medal”. 
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Peak Inflation?

Prices climbed 8.5% in March compared to last year amid growing fears of economic slowdown
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/04/12/inflation-march-cpi/
CPI Inflation Report:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf 

Globally, inflation is surging amid persistent pandemic disruptions and war in Ukraine.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/business/global-inflation.html

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Surplus College Graduates - China's Labor Market Challenges

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Monday, April 11, 2022

Macro-Finance and the Doomsayers

There's a Bull Market in Macro Doom
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-11/there-s-a-bull-market-in-macro-doom
There is a genre of investment research that continuously predicts economic disaster that I call “macro doom.” It has become very popular. It seems that everyone is an expert in macroeconomics today, and they’re all predicting a bust of some kind. 

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High-Paying Jobs

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Globalization - The Past, The Present, and The Future


Globalization, automation and the history of work: Looking back to understand the future
https://voxeu.org/content/globalisation-automation-and-history-work-looking-back-understand-future 

Ukraine’s War Has Already Changed the World’s Economy
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/05/ukraine-russia-war-world-economy/
 
China accelerates inward economic pivot with plan to create a ‘unified domestic market’
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3173886/china-accelerates-inward-economic-pivot-plan-create-unified
 
China has much to lose as war in Ukraine turns Europe away from globalization
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3173599/china-has-much-lose-war-ukraine-turns-europe-away-globalisation

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Social Media and Dysfunctional Societies

AFTER BABEL by Jonathan Haidt
How social media dissolved the mortar of society and made America stupid
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/05/social-media-democracy-trust-babel/629369/
Historically, civilizations have relied on shared blood, gods, and enemies to counteract the tendency to split apart as they grow. But what is it that holds together large and diverse secular democracies such as the United States and India, or, for that matter, modern Britain and France?
Social scientists have identified at least three major forces that collectively bind together successful democracies: social capital (extensive social networks with high levels of trust), strong institutions, and shared stories. Social media has weakened all three.
 
Related:
Why American Teens Are So Sad
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/04/american-teens-sadness-depression-anxiety/629524/
Four forces are propelling the rising rates of depression among young people. 

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Sunday, April 10, 2022

Democracy in Action - Reality is Far From the Ideal

Crypto Industry Helps Write, and Pass, Its Own Agenda in State Capitols
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/10/us/politics/crypto-industry-states-legislation.html
In the absence of federal regulations, crypto lobbyists and executives are going state by state to get favorable rules enacted. Many lawmakers have been willing partners. 

Before Giving Billions to Jared Kushner, Saudi Investment Fund Had Big Doubts
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/10/us/jared-kushner-saudi-investment-fund.html
Before committing $2 billion to Mr. Kushner’s fledgling firm, officials at a fund led by the Saudi crown prince questioned taking such a big risk.

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Economic Forecasting - Bias and Challenges

Why So Many COVID Predictions Were Wrong
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/pandemic-failed-economic-forecasting/629498/
In a crisis, credibility is extremely important to garnering policy change. And failed predictions may contribute to an unhealthy skepticism that much of the population has developed toward expertise. 

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Poor Fiscal Management in Illinois

Unlikely, but here’s how Illinois could escape its fiscal abyss
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/08/how-illinois-could-escape-its-fiscal-abyss/ 

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Inflation and the Auto Sector

Few Cars, Lots of Customers: Why Autos Are an Inflation Risk
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/10/business/economy/cars-inflation.html
Economists are betting that supply chains for all kinds of goods will heal, shortages will ease and price gains will slow. Cars are a wild card in those forecasts. 

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Saturday, April 9, 2022

Taxing Foreigners – The Debate in UK

There are plenty of reasons to back the non-dom system
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/07/rishi-sunaks-wife-has-made-mistake-nothing-inherently-wrong/
Calls to end the separate tax treatment of foreigners are nothing more than cheap political virtue-signalling 

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Effectiveness of Economic/Financial Sanctions

Treasury Aims for Economic Pain on Russia, but Critics Question Effectiveness
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/08/us/politics/russia-sanctions-effectiveness-adeyemo.html
ACLU helped defeat plan to seize Russian oligarchs’ funds for Ukraine
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/04/08/aclu-ukraine-russia-oligarchs/

Putin Reminds the World He Still Wields a Powerful Economic Weapon
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/02/business/economy/russia-ukraine-sanctions-gas.html
Despite Western sanctions, Russian ruble and banks are recovering
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/03/31/ruble-recovery-sanctions-russia/ 

Think Twice Before Sanctioning Russia Further
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Not Everyone Needs a College Degree

Blue-Collar Workers Make the Leap to Tech Jobs, No College Degree Necessary
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tech-jobs-no-college-degree-necessary-11649371535
The pandemic has helped catapult Americans in low-paying roles into more upwardly mobile careers 
Related:

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Financial Trading in an Era of Information Overload


The Shifts in the Markets Are Enough to Make Your Head Spin
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/08/business/mutual-funds/stocks-bonds-mutual-funds.html

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Friday, April 8, 2022

Industrial Policy: What's Old is New Again

Industrial Policy Can Rescue Latin America from its Commodities Trap
https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/industrial-policy-can-rescue-latin-america-from-its-commodities-trap/
 
The Return of the Policy That Shall Not Be Named: Principles of Industrial Policy
https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2019/WPIEA2019074.ashx
 
Many countries are seeing a revival of industrial policy
https://www.economist.com/special-report/2022/01/10/many-countries-are-seeing-a-revival-of-industrial-policy
 
Industrial Policy’s Comeback
https://bostonreview.net/forum/industrial-policys-comeback/ 

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US-Middle East Ties

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Cryptocurrencies and NFTs


Can an Art History Frame Help Expand the NFT Market?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/14/arts/design/nft-art-market-sothebys.html

Can you truly own anything in the metaverse? A law professor explains how blockchains and NFTs don’t protect virtual property
https://theconversation.com/can-you-truly-own-anything-in-the-metaverse-a-law-professor-explains-how-blockchains-and-nfts-dont-protect-virtual-property-179067

El Salvador town embracing bitcoin as currency

Crypto Industry Helps Write, and Pass, Its Own Agenda in State Capitols
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/10/us/politics/crypto-industry-states-legislation.html
In the absence of federal regulations, crypto lobbyists and executives are going state by state to get favorable rules enacted. Many lawmakers have been willing partners. 


Remarks from Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen on Digital Assets
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0706
New technologies build on older ones and a chain of innovation has transformed financial services over time. Seventy years ago, most Americans used coins, cash, and checks to manage most aspects of their financial lives. Then, in the 1960s, an engineer from IBM attached a magnetic strip to a plastic card and sparked a new category of payment products: credit and debit cards. Those innovations facilitated the growth of other technologies, like ATMs, which made cash available 24/7. More recently, computers, the internet, and mobile phones have driven the explosive growth of electronic payments and online commerce.
Although new technologies have made our financial system more efficient for most Americans, many transactions still take too long to settle. A combination of technological factors and business incentives have produced a common frustrating experience shared by tens of millions of Americans every week: their employer sends their paycheck, but it takes up to two days for the check to hit their bank account.  The delay contributes to the use of high-cost check cashers or ‘pay day’ lenders to get their money in time to pay their bills. Some are forced to draw against already low balances and are charged overdraft fees. Estimates suggest Americans spend $15 billion or more each year on such fees and services – essentially a tax of about $100 dollars per working American, due mostly to inefficiency, and disproportionately borne by people with lower incomes.

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