On frontier of new ‘gold rush,’ quest for coveted
EV metals yields misery
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/ev-battery-bauxite-guinea/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/ev-battery-bauxite-guinea/
Sunday, April 30, 2023
Politics in America - Rise of the Lunatic Fringe
In San Francisco, a Troubled Year at a Whole Foods
Market Reflects a City’s Woes
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/30/us/san-francisco-whole-foods-crime-economy.html
Tech workers have stayed home, and ongoing social problems downtown are forcing civic and business leaders to confront harsh realities about the city’s pandemic recovery.
San Francisco Can’t Do the Math
https://www.wsj.com/articles/san-francisco-eighth-grade-algebra-sf-guardians-public-schools-21533309
A battle over equity, achievement—and eighth-grade algebra.
Disney v. DeSantis: How Strong Is the Company’s Lawsuit?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/30/opinion/disney-desantis-florida-lawsuit.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/30/us/san-francisco-whole-foods-crime-economy.html
Tech workers have stayed home, and ongoing social problems downtown are forcing civic and business leaders to confront harsh realities about the city’s pandemic recovery.
San Francisco Can’t Do the Math
https://www.wsj.com/articles/san-francisco-eighth-grade-algebra-sf-guardians-public-schools-21533309
A battle over equity, achievement—and eighth-grade algebra.
Disney v. DeSantis: How Strong Is the Company’s Lawsuit?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/30/opinion/disney-desantis-florida-lawsuit.html
Ron DeSantis’s war on “woke” in Florida schools,
explained
Dubai/UAE Gain Prominence
‘In London I had two cars stolen – here crime is
non-existent’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/30/dubai-uk-professionals-high-tax-britain/
Dubai has became a magnet for young professionals fleeing high-tax Britain
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/30/dubai-uk-professionals-high-tax-britain/
Dubai has became a magnet for young professionals fleeing high-tax Britain
A.I., Brain Scans and Cameras: The Spread of Police Surveillance Tech
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/30/technology/police-surveillance-tech-dubai.html
In the Middle East, artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies have become part of everyday policing.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/30/technology/police-surveillance-tech-dubai.html
In the Middle East, artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies have become part of everyday policing.
Indian firms are flocking to the United Arab Emirates
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/04/27/indian-firms-are-flocking-to-the-united-arab-emirates
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/04/27/indian-firms-are-flocking-to-the-united-arab-emirates
Buildup resumed at suspected Chinese military site
in UAE, leak says
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/26/chinese-military-base-uae/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/26/chinese-military-base-uae/
The International Value of an American Degree
The Value of U.S. College Education in Global Labor
Markets: Experimental Evidence from China
https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4745
Abstract
One million international students study in the United States each year, and the majority of them compete in global labor markets after graduation. I conducted a large-scale field experiment and a companion employer survey to study how employers in China value U.S. college education. I sent more than 27,000 fictitious online applications to business and computer science jobs in China, randomizing the country of college education. I find that U.S.-educated applicants are on average 18% less likely to receive a callback than applicants educated in China, with applicants from very selective U.S. institutions underperforming those from the least selective Chinese institutions. The United States-China callback gap is smaller at high-wage jobs, consistent with employers fearing U.S.-educated applicants have better outside options and would be harder to hire and retain. The gap is also smaller at foreign-owned firms, consistent with Chinese-owned firms knowing less about American education. Controlling for high school quality, test scores, or U.S. work experiences does not attenuate the gap, suggesting that the gap is not driven by employer perceptions of negative selection. A survey of 507 hiring managers at college career fairs finds consistent and additional supporting evidence for the experimental findings.
https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4745
Abstract
One million international students study in the United States each year, and the majority of them compete in global labor markets after graduation. I conducted a large-scale field experiment and a companion employer survey to study how employers in China value U.S. college education. I sent more than 27,000 fictitious online applications to business and computer science jobs in China, randomizing the country of college education. I find that U.S.-educated applicants are on average 18% less likely to receive a callback than applicants educated in China, with applicants from very selective U.S. institutions underperforming those from the least selective Chinese institutions. The United States-China callback gap is smaller at high-wage jobs, consistent with employers fearing U.S.-educated applicants have better outside options and would be harder to hire and retain. The gap is also smaller at foreign-owned firms, consistent with Chinese-owned firms knowing less about American education. Controlling for high school quality, test scores, or U.S. work experiences does not attenuate the gap, suggesting that the gap is not driven by employer perceptions of negative selection. A survey of 507 hiring managers at college career fairs finds consistent and additional supporting evidence for the experimental findings.
Related:
Foreign students flock to Global South for jobs, low fees
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/Foreign-students-flock-to-Global-South-for-jobs-low-fees
Overseas applicants rise sharply at universities in Argentina, Turkey, India
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/Foreign-students-flock-to-Global-South-for-jobs-low-fees
Overseas applicants rise sharply at universities in Argentina, Turkey, India
Absurd CEO Compensation Packages
CEO pay has skyrocketed 1,460% since 1978
https://www.epi.org/publication/ceo-pay-in-2021/
CEOs were paid 399 times as much as a typical worker in 2021
Moderna’s billionaire CEO reaped nearly $400
million last year. He also got a raise.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/29/modernas-billionaire-ceo-reaped-nearly-400-million-last-year-he-also-got-raise/
Eye-popping executive pay rewards luck, not
managerial wizardry
https://www.ft.com/content/c8fd0f43-866c-45c5-871d-516470bad5d6
https://www.epi.org/publication/ceo-pay-in-2021/
CEOs were paid 399 times as much as a typical worker in 2021
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/29/modernas-billionaire-ceo-reaped-nearly-400-million-last-year-he-also-got-raise/
https://www.ft.com/content/c8fd0f43-866c-45c5-871d-516470bad5d6
The Rise of Scalia Law School
How Scalia Law School Became a Key Friend of the
Court
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/30/us/supreme-court-scalia-law-school.html
The school cultivated ties to justices, with generous pay and unusual perks. In turn, it gained prestige, donations and influence.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/30/us/supreme-court-scalia-law-school.html
The school cultivated ties to justices, with generous pay and unusual perks. In turn, it gained prestige, donations and influence.
Saturday, April 29, 2023
The Wise Brain
Scientists study the wise brain
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2023/04/27/wisdom-science-brain/
Some researchers say that wisdom is a trait that can be genetically inherited, though environment also plays a major role
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2023/04/27/wisdom-science-brain/
Some researchers say that wisdom is a trait that can be genetically inherited, though environment also plays a major role
The Power of Nostalgia
In Defense of Nostalgia
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/28/opinion/in-defense-of-nostalgia.html
“…the redirection of nostalgia for past greatness toward a vision of the future, is an essential part of human civilization-building.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/28/opinion/in-defense-of-nostalgia.html
“…the redirection of nostalgia for past greatness toward a vision of the future, is an essential part of human civilization-building.”
Bruce Springsteen - Glory Days
Standardized Tests and the Meritocracy Debate
The confusing future of standardized testing,
explained.
https://www.vox.com/23700778/sat-act-standardized-tests-college-high-school
https://www.vox.com/23700778/sat-act-standardized-tests-college-high-school
Can the Meritocracy Survive Without the SAT?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/29/opinion/sat-college.html
“… it seems pretty clear that many schools are really ditching the SAT in response to the following sequence of events: Asian American SAT scores rose to the point where elite colleges were accused of discriminating against Asian American applicants to maintain the racial balance they desired, this led to lawsuits, and those lawsuits seem poised to yield a Supreme Court ruling against affirmative action. So universities are pre-emptively abandoning a metric that might be used against them in future litigation, not for the sake of widening opportunity but just in the hopes of sustaining the admissions status quo”.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/29/opinion/sat-college.html
“… it seems pretty clear that many schools are really ditching the SAT in response to the following sequence of events: Asian American SAT scores rose to the point where elite colleges were accused of discriminating against Asian American applicants to maintain the racial balance they desired, this led to lawsuits, and those lawsuits seem poised to yield a Supreme Court ruling against affirmative action. So universities are pre-emptively abandoning a metric that might be used against them in future litigation, not for the sake of widening opportunity but just in the hopes of sustaining the admissions status quo”.
Payoff-based College Admissions by Frederick M. Hess
https://www.nationalaffairs.com/storage/app/uploads/public/63a/3c2/deb/63a3c2deb56fc934667451.pdf
Elite universities present themselves as bastions of meritocracy. But they routinely offer the children and grandchildren of major donors an easy path to admission, even when those students wouldn't otherwise qualify. Worse yet, the donations that open these doors are tax-deductible, and therefore heavily subsidized by taxpayers. Some questions surrounding college-admissions policies are complex and profound, but this one is painfully simple: We should press college officials to mean what they say about opportunity and equity, and to spend less time strong-arming wealthy donors. But at a bare minimum, we should get taxpayers out of the business of subsidizing campus shakedown artists.
https://www.nationalaffairs.com/storage/app/uploads/public/63a/3c2/deb/63a3c2deb56fc934667451.pdf
Elite universities present themselves as bastions of meritocracy. But they routinely offer the children and grandchildren of major donors an easy path to admission, even when those students wouldn't otherwise qualify. Worse yet, the donations that open these doors are tax-deductible, and therefore heavily subsidized by taxpayers. Some questions surrounding college-admissions policies are complex and profound, but this one is painfully simple: We should press college officials to mean what they say about opportunity and equity, and to spend less time strong-arming wealthy donors. But at a bare minimum, we should get taxpayers out of the business of subsidizing campus shakedown artists.
School Is for Merit
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/opinion/us-school-merit.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/opinion/us-school-merit.html
In Defense of Merit in Science
https://journalofcontroversialideas.org/article/3/1/236
https://journalofcontroversialideas.org/article/3/1/236
Friday, April 28, 2023
Low Wage Labor in the US
America Pays a High Price for Low Wages
https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-pays-a-high-price-for-low-wages-d706894d
For decades the U.S. has used wage subsidies to support the country’s lowest-paid workers—a welfare system that keeps the poor down, primarily benefits the wealthy and undermines technological innovation.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-pays-a-high-price-for-low-wages-d706894d
For decades the U.S. has used wage subsidies to support the country’s lowest-paid workers—a welfare system that keeps the poor down, primarily benefits the wealthy and undermines technological innovation.
Interest Rate Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve and the art of navigating a
soft landing … when economic data sends mixed signals
https://theconversation.com/the-federal-reserve-and-the-art-of-navigating-a-soft-landing-when-economic-data-sends-mixed-signals-204707
https://theconversation.com/the-federal-reserve-and-the-art-of-navigating-a-soft-landing-when-economic-data-sends-mixed-signals-204707
India's Economic Potential
India’s economy is surging thanks to these three revolutions
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/28/india-revolutions-economy-growth-future/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/28/india-revolutions-economy-growth-future/
Can India unlock the potential of its youth?
https://ig.ft.com/india-population/
The world’s most populous country could seize its demographic dividend — or squander it
https://ig.ft.com/india-population/
The world’s most populous country could seize its demographic dividend — or squander it
The India Stack: opening the digital marketplace to the masses
https://www.ft.com/content/cf75a136-c6c7-49d0-8c1c-89e046b8a170
https://www.ft.com/content/cf75a136-c6c7-49d0-8c1c-89e046b8a170
India Races to Get Rich Before It Gets Old as Population Passes China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-19/india-races-to-get-rirch-before-it-gets-old-as-population-passes-china
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-19/india-races-to-get-rirch-before-it-gets-old-as-population-passes-china
Will This Be the ‘Indian Century’? Four Key Questions
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/04/19/world/asia/india-china-population.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/04/19/world/asia/india-china-population.html
India’s Population Surpasses China’s, Shifting the World’s ‘Center of Gravity’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-china-population-economy-9dd7bf27
The new global order reflects deep changes in both countries, with economic and geopolitical consequences
https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-china-population-economy-9dd7bf27
The new global order reflects deep changes in both countries, with economic and geopolitical consequences
The Global Economy Needs a New Powerhouse. India Is Stepping Up
Related:
The Economics of Sports Gambling
A Primer on Sports Gambling
https://www.milkenreview.org/articles/sports-gambling
https://www.milkenreview.org/articles/sports-gambling
Thursday, April 27, 2023
US Commercial Real Estate Downturn
Fire Sale: $300 Million San Francisco Office Tower, Mostly Empty. Open to Offers.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/san-francisco-commercial-real-estate-office-buildings-471742ea
https://www.wsj.com/articles/san-francisco-commercial-real-estate-office-buildings-471742ea
US Economy - Stagflation Lite
Sharp economic slowdown triggers new recession
fears
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/27/recession-gdp-slow-economy/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/27/recession-gdp-slow-economy/
US Labor Costs Pick Up, Likely Locking in One More
Fed Rate Hike
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-28/us-labor-costs-pick-up-likely-locking-in-one-more-fed-hike
Core PCE price gauge rose 0.3% in March for a
second month
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-28/us-core-pce-inflation-stays-brisk-while-consumer-spending-stalls
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-28/us-labor-costs-pick-up-likely-locking-in-one-more-fed-hike
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-28/us-core-pce-inflation-stays-brisk-while-consumer-spending-stalls
U.S. economy grew at 1.1% in early 2023, points to ‘significant slowing’
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/27/gdp-2023-q1-economy/
U.S. Economy Continues to Grow, but More Slowly
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/27/business/economy/gdp-q1-economy.html
Inflation Is Still High. What’s Driving It Has Changed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/27/business/economy/what-causes-inflation.html
Two years ago, high inflation was about supply shortages and pricier goods. Then it was about war in Ukraine and energy. These days, services are key.
Related:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-gdp-economic-growth-first-quarter-2023-2ff4348c
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/27/gdp-2023-q1-economy/
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/27/business/economy/gdp-q1-economy.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/27/business/economy/what-causes-inflation.html
Two years ago, high inflation was about supply shortages and pricier goods. Then it was about war in Ukraine and energy. These days, services are key.
Related:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-gdp-economic-growth-first-quarter-2023-2ff4348c
Anxious Foresight
The New Age of Tragedy
https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2023/04/new-age-tragedy-china-food-europe-energy-robert-kaplan-helen-thompson-john-gray
The post-Cold War moment, a 30-year period when globalization and free trade were orchestrated under the aegis of American supremacy, is ending. As the historian Anders Stephanson has written, “One could not deny that geopolitics reduced to a set of mopping-up operations was a historic achievement of US power.” Today, great-power rivalry, war and the competition for diminishing resources are old realities reborn, revenants of history that now define a present of increasing peril and uncertainty.
In The Tragic Mind (2023), the American correspondent, author and foreign policy adviser Robert D Kaplan argues that we must learn to think tragically to avoid tragedy. We need what he calls anxious foresight. The wisest among us fear disorder and anarchy as much as tyranny.
My take:
https://www.ut.edu/uploadedFiles/Academics/Business/TBESpring2023_Final.pdf
Rising geopolitical risks and ongoing climate change imply that the lengthy period of good luck may have run its course. We may no longer have the good fortune of experiencing shocks that are small and infrequent. Naturally, this raises the likelihood that both output growth and infation will become much more volatile and a return to the Great Moderation-type dynamic may not be on the cards for the foreseeable future.
The post-Cold War moment, a 30-year period when globalization and free trade were orchestrated under the aegis of American supremacy, is ending. As the historian Anders Stephanson has written, “One could not deny that geopolitics reduced to a set of mopping-up operations was a historic achievement of US power.” Today, great-power rivalry, war and the competition for diminishing resources are old realities reborn, revenants of history that now define a present of increasing peril and uncertainty.
In The Tragic Mind (2023), the American correspondent, author and foreign policy adviser Robert D Kaplan argues that we must learn to think tragically to avoid tragedy. We need what he calls anxious foresight. The wisest among us fear disorder and anarchy as much as tyranny.
https://www.ut.edu/uploadedFiles/Academics/Business/TBESpring2023_Final.pdf
Rising geopolitical risks and ongoing climate change imply that the lengthy period of good luck may have run its course. We may no longer have the good fortune of experiencing shocks that are small and infrequent. Naturally, this raises the likelihood that both output growth and infation will become much more volatile and a return to the Great Moderation-type dynamic may not be on the cards for the foreseeable future.
AI and Jobs
Occupational Heterogeneity in Exposure to Generative AI
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4414065
Abstract
Recent dramatic increases in generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), including language modeling and image generation, has led to many questions about the effect of these technologies on the economy. We use a recently developed methodology to systematically assess which occupations are most exposed to advances in AI language modeling and image generation capabilities. We then characterize the profile of occupations that are more or less exposed based on characteristics of the occupation, suggesting that highly-educated, highly-paid, white-collar occupations may be most exposed to generative AI, and consider demographic variation in who will be most exposed to advances in generative AI. The range of occupations exposed to advances in generative AI, the rapidity with its spread, and the variation in which populations will be most exposed to such advances, suggest that government can play an important role in helping people adapt to how generative AI changes work.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4414065
Abstract
Recent dramatic increases in generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), including language modeling and image generation, has led to many questions about the effect of these technologies on the economy. We use a recently developed methodology to systematically assess which occupations are most exposed to advances in AI language modeling and image generation capabilities. We then characterize the profile of occupations that are more or less exposed based on characteristics of the occupation, suggesting that highly-educated, highly-paid, white-collar occupations may be most exposed to generative AI, and consider demographic variation in who will be most exposed to advances in generative AI. The range of occupations exposed to advances in generative AI, the rapidity with its spread, and the variation in which populations will be most exposed to such advances, suggest that government can play an important role in helping people adapt to how generative AI changes work.
History Lesson: The Chola Dynasty
The Greatest Movie Epic You’ve Never Heard of
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/11/ponniyinselvan-cinema-india/
A classic of Tamil literature has become a stunning pair of films.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/11/ponniyinselvan-cinema-india/
A classic of Tamil literature has become a stunning pair of films.
Epic movie rekindles interest in ancient south
Indian empire
https://asia.nikkei.com/Life-Arts/Life/Epic-movie-rekindles-interest-in-ancient-south-Indian-empire2
On the bank of the Cauvery River in southern India stands the majestic Brihadeeswara Temple. It was built from granite quarried 48 kilometers away and hauled to the site by a thousand captive elephants before deposing the heavy stones with the help of ramps.
The temple, located in Tamil Nadu state's Thanjavur, displays images of gods and goddesses, ancient inscriptions, carvings and frescoes. It was constructed in the 11th century by one of the longest reigning Indian dynasties, the Cholas, which existed for more than 1,500 years and reached its peak between the 9th and 13th centuries, one of the three most powerful kingdoms of the region.
Chola Dynasty (9th-13th Century)
https://asia.si.edu/learn/india-shiva-nataraja-lord-of-the-dance/chola-dynasty/
https://asia.nikkei.com/Life-Arts/Life/Epic-movie-rekindles-interest-in-ancient-south-Indian-empire2
On the bank of the Cauvery River in southern India stands the majestic Brihadeeswara Temple. It was built from granite quarried 48 kilometers away and hauled to the site by a thousand captive elephants before deposing the heavy stones with the help of ramps.
The temple, located in Tamil Nadu state's Thanjavur, displays images of gods and goddesses, ancient inscriptions, carvings and frescoes. It was constructed in the 11th century by one of the longest reigning Indian dynasties, the Cholas, which existed for more than 1,500 years and reached its peak between the 9th and 13th centuries, one of the three most powerful kingdoms of the region.
Chola Dynasty (9th-13th Century)
https://asia.si.edu/learn/india-shiva-nataraja-lord-of-the-dance/chola-dynasty/
Chasing Net Zero
Chasing Carbon Zero
https://youtu.be/cN-P4ilk7Iw
The Green Revolution Will Not Be Painless
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/04/oil-refinery-workers-california-green-new-deal/673852/
https://youtu.be/cN-P4ilk7Iw
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/04/oil-refinery-workers-california-green-new-deal/673852/
Housing Market Correction in Europe
Where High Interest Rates Have Sent Home Prices
Sliding
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/21/business/sweden-housing-prices-interest-rates.html
In Sweden, the central bank’s fight against inflation is crimping economic growth and has contributed to a 15 percent drop in home prices.
Related:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-faces-recession-housing-market-troubles-take-toll-economy-2023-03-15
UK house prices fall at fastest annual rate since
2009
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/31/uk-house-prices-fall-at-fastest-annual-rate-since-2009
Related:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-homes-taking-almost-twice-230100558.html
Short European Real Estate? Beware. So Is Everyone
Else
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/27/short-european-real-estate-beware-so-is-everyone-else/e69631ac-e4b2-11ed-9696-8e874fd710b8_story.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/21/business/sweden-housing-prices-interest-rates.html
In Sweden, the central bank’s fight against inflation is crimping economic growth and has contributed to a 15 percent drop in home prices.
Related:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sweden-faces-recession-housing-market-troubles-take-toll-economy-2023-03-15
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/31/uk-house-prices-fall-at-fastest-annual-rate-since-2009
Related:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-homes-taking-almost-twice-230100558.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/27/short-european-real-estate-beware-so-is-everyone-else/e69631ac-e4b2-11ed-9696-8e874fd710b8_story.html
Wednesday, April 26, 2023
Banking Crisis is Not Over
Banking crises rooted in a system that rewards
excessive risk-taking – as First Republic’s precarious situation shows
https://theconversation.com/banking-crises-rooted-in-a-system-that-rewards-excessive-risk-taking-as-first-republics-precarious-situation-shows-204255
https://theconversation.com/banking-crises-rooted-in-a-system-that-rewards-excessive-risk-taking-as-first-republics-precarious-situation-shows-204255
First Republic Bank Is a Problem with No Easy Solution
https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-republic-is-a-problem-with-no-easy-solution-9c2525b6
Banking Problems May Be Tip of Debt Iceberg
https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-problems-may-be-tip-of-debt-iceberg-262b6d0e
‘Shadow banks’ have grown rapidly and, like banks, are exposed to risk from higher interest rates
https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-republic-is-a-problem-with-no-easy-solution-9c2525b6
https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-problems-may-be-tip-of-debt-iceberg-262b6d0e
‘Shadow banks’ have grown rapidly and, like banks, are exposed to risk from higher interest rates
Why the Banking Mess Isn’t Over
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-banking-mess-isnt-over-eb075a2f
Smaller U.S. Banks Say the Crisis Is Contained, but Fears Persist
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/business/regional-banks-crisis.html
First Republic Bank Lost $102 Billion in Customer Deposits
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/business/economy/first-republic-earnings.html
US banks on alert over falling commercial real estate valuations
https://www.ft.com/content/705df695-c81c-4ddf-8d56-a0a6e9cd7500
Commercial Real-Estate Woes Run Deeper Than in Past Downturns
https://www.wsj.com/articles/commercial-real-estate-woes-run-deeper-than-in-past-downturns-e0c1f2b3
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-banking-mess-isnt-over-eb075a2f
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/business/regional-banks-crisis.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/business/economy/first-republic-earnings.html
https://www.ft.com/content/705df695-c81c-4ddf-8d56-a0a6e9cd7500
https://www.wsj.com/articles/commercial-real-estate-woes-run-deeper-than-in-past-downturns-e0c1f2b3
De-Dollarization - This Time is Different
Update: Wonking Out: De-Dollarization Debunked
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/07/opinion/dollar-strength-reserve-currency.html
Related:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-international-role-of-the-us-dollar-post-covid-edition-20230623.html
Related:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-international-role-of-the-us-dollar-post-covid-edition-20230623.html
Asia's growing dollar wariness is hardening up gold
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Asia-s-growing-dollar-wariness-is-hardening-up-gold
Seizure of central bank reserves, U.S. debt worries drive search for alternatives
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Asia-s-growing-dollar-wariness-is-hardening-up-gold
Seizure of central bank reserves, U.S. debt worries drive search for alternatives
Move over, U.S. dollar. China wants to make the
yuan the global currency.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/16/china-yuan-renminbi-us-dollar-currency-trade/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/16/china-yuan-renminbi-us-dollar-currency-trade/
Why China and its trading allies are well placed to
topple the dollar
China Takes the Yuan Global in Bid to Repel a
Weaponized Dollar
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-03/world-s-top-currency-china-takes-yuan-global-in-bid-to-repel-us-dollar-usd
A string of new deals promote the Chinese currency as geopolitical risk spills into international finance
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-03/world-s-top-currency-china-takes-yuan-global-in-bid-to-repel-us-dollar-usd
A string of new deals promote the Chinese currency as geopolitical risk spills into international finance
The power and the limits of the American dollar
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/04/27/the-power-and-the-limits-of-the-american-dollar
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/04/27/the-power-and-the-limits-of-the-american-dollar
Welcome to a new era of petrodollar power
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/04/09/welcome-to-a-new-era-of-petrodollar-power
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/04/09/welcome-to-a-new-era-of-petrodollar-power
Biden’s debt ceiling crisis threatens stark consequences for the dollar
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/27/dollar-currency-us-debt-ceiling-biden/
The Dollar’s Demise May Come Gradually, But Not Suddenly
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-04-23/dollar-may-fall-to-yuan-crypto-but-not-soon-niall-ferguson
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/27/dollar-currency-us-debt-ceiling-biden/
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-04-23/dollar-may-fall-to-yuan-crypto-but-not-soon-niall-ferguson
A more global yuan is not a zero-sum game for China
and the US
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3219097/more-global-yuan-not-zero-sum-game-china-and-us
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3219097/more-global-yuan-not-zero-sum-game-china-and-us
A BRICS Currency Could Shake the Dollar’s Dominance
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/24/brics-currency-end-dollar-dominance-united-states-russia-china/
Related:
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3218184/how-brics-nations-are-leading-push-free-global-south-wests-financial-system
Related:
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3218184/how-brics-nations-are-leading-push-free-global-south-wests-financial-system
The Need for More Vocational Training
The Great Electrician Shortage
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dept-of-energy/the-great-electrician-shortage
Going green will depend on blue-collar workers. Can we train enough of them before time runs out?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dept-of-energy/the-great-electrician-shortage
Going green will depend on blue-collar workers. Can we train enough of them before time runs out?
How I sailed away from the college-at-all-costs
track–and found my dream career
https://fortune.com/2023/05/19/how-i-sailed-away-from-the-college-at-all-costs-trackand-found-my-dream-career/
https://fortune.com/2023/05/19/how-i-sailed-away-from-the-college-at-all-costs-trackand-found-my-dream-career/
My Take from Feb 2021:
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/540133-the-economic-trends-that-will-create-post-pandemic-policy-challenges
Long-term labor market challenges cannot be addressed by temporarily overheating the economy. We need to rethink our basic approach to worker training and provide direct support to those willing to undertake skill retraining/upgrading (there is currently a large-scale shortage of skilled tradespeople in the U.S. that is not being addressed). Policies aimed at encouraging every high school graduate to attend four-year colleges, regardless of their personal preferences/interests or academic preparedness, will prove to be counterproductive and lead to both grade and degree inflation. Creating German-style apprenticeship programs may offer a valuable alternative track for high school graduates.
Long-term labor market challenges cannot be addressed by temporarily overheating the economy. We need to rethink our basic approach to worker training and provide direct support to those willing to undertake skill retraining/upgrading (there is currently a large-scale shortage of skilled tradespeople in the U.S. that is not being addressed). Policies aimed at encouraging every high school graduate to attend four-year colleges, regardless of their personal preferences/interests or academic preparedness, will prove to be counterproductive and lead to both grade and degree inflation. Creating German-style apprenticeship programs may offer a valuable alternative track for high school graduates.
Redesigning US Foreign Aid
The bipartisan Fostering Innovation in Global
Development Act would promote foreign aid programs with a rigorous evidence
base.
https://www.vox.com/2023/4/25/23692700/usaid-foreign-aid-joaquin-castro-young-kim
https://www.vox.com/2023/4/25/23692700/usaid-foreign-aid-joaquin-castro-young-kim
Tuesday, April 25, 2023
Will BRICS Drive the De-Dollarization Trend?
A BRICS Currency Could Shake the Dollar’s Dominance
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/24/brics-currency-end-dollar-dominance-united-states-russia-china/
Related:
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3218184/how-brics-nations-are-leading-push-free-global-south-wests-financial-system
BRICS Draws Membership Bids From 19 Nations Before
Summit
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-24/brics-draws-membership-requests-from-19-nations-before-summit
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/24/brics-currency-end-dollar-dominance-united-states-russia-china/
Related:
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3218184/how-brics-nations-are-leading-push-free-global-south-wests-financial-system
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-24/brics-draws-membership-requests-from-19-nations-before-summit
Reality of Driverless Vehicles
San Francisco is a postcard from a driverless car future. Here’s what it’s like.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/04/24/driverless-cars-san-francisco/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/04/24/driverless-cars-san-francisco/
Property Rights in America
She’s at risk of losing her Florida home over a violation she didn’t know existed
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article274552871.html
Adair’s retirement plan was put in jeopardy, however, after the city filed suit against her last August to foreclose on the house over unpaid code enforcement fines.
The fines stemmed from a 2014 code violation for “dirt, mold and mildew” and “chalking, chipped and peeling paint” on the exterior walls of her house, which Adair said was the result of algae from banyan trees in the front of her house and paint that was stripped when she removed a vine growing on the house…
The lawsuit came as a shock.
It was filed by a private attorney named Matt Weidner, who signed a contract with the city in 2020 to file foreclosure lawsuits against properties with unpaid code fines. Under the terms of the agreement, Weidner gets a portion of whatever the city recovers by foreclosing on homes and selling them at auction or reaching settlements with owners like Adair to pay some or all of what they owe.
Related:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/she-risk-losing-her-florida-120000617.html
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article274552871.html
Adair’s retirement plan was put in jeopardy, however, after the city filed suit against her last August to foreclose on the house over unpaid code enforcement fines.
The fines stemmed from a 2014 code violation for “dirt, mold and mildew” and “chalking, chipped and peeling paint” on the exterior walls of her house, which Adair said was the result of algae from banyan trees in the front of her house and paint that was stripped when she removed a vine growing on the house…
The lawsuit came as a shock.
It was filed by a private attorney named Matt Weidner, who signed a contract with the city in 2020 to file foreclosure lawsuits against properties with unpaid code fines. Under the terms of the agreement, Weidner gets a portion of whatever the city recovers by foreclosing on homes and selling them at auction or reaching settlements with owners like Adair to pay some or all of what they owe.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/she-risk-losing-her-florida-120000617.html
Is the US Economy Cooling?
Sliding Diesel Prices Signal Warning for U.S.
Economy
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sliding-diesel-prices-signal-warning-for-u-s-economy-c6400724
UPS flashes a warning sign about the US economy
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/25/business/ups-earnings-us-economy-slowdown/index.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sliding-diesel-prices-signal-warning-for-u-s-economy-c6400724
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/25/business/ups-earnings-us-economy-slowdown/index.html
US Housing Market - Regional Variations and Price Volatility
Home Buyers Are Eager but Sellers Are Scarce,
Creating ‘Real Gridlock’
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/29/business/spring-housing-market.html
Homeowners with low-rate mortgages are delaying the decision to sell until market conditions change.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/29/business/spring-housing-market.html
Homeowners with low-rate mortgages are delaying the decision to sell until market conditions change.
A divided housing market: Zillow says these 294
markets to see home price gains while these 102 markets tick lower
The Western housing market recession hit so hard and fast that a Fortune 500 firm that was riding high at $34 per share has crashed to $1
Lower Mortgage Rates Won’t Make Homes More
Affordable
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-04-25/lower-mortgage-rates-won-t-make-homes-more-affordable
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-04-25/lower-mortgage-rates-won-t-make-homes-more-affordable
Miami’s Luxury Rent Surge Means Your Money Goes
Half as Far
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-25/miami-luxury-rentals-how-much-space-can-i-get-for-2-000-a-week
A $2,000-a-week budget yields 50% less space than it did three years ago in the Florida hotspot.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-25/miami-luxury-rentals-how-much-space-can-i-get-for-2-000-a-week
A $2,000-a-week budget yields 50% less space than it did three years ago in the Florida hotspot.
Profit Margins Are Sliding for Americans Who Sell
Their Homes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-27/profit-margins-are-sliding-for-americans-who-sell-their-homes
With the benefit of hindsight, millions of US homeowners inclined to sell would have been better off doing it last spring.
The average profit margin on the sale of median-priced single-family homes and condos fell to 44% last quarter, from a peak of 56% in the second quarter of 2022, according to data published Thursday by Attom, a real estate analytics firm. The numbers cover homes in metro areas with a population of 200,000 or more.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-27/profit-margins-are-sliding-for-americans-who-sell-their-homes
With the benefit of hindsight, millions of US homeowners inclined to sell would have been better off doing it last spring.
The average profit margin on the sale of median-priced single-family homes and condos fell to 44% last quarter, from a peak of 56% in the second quarter of 2022, according to data published Thursday by Attom, a real estate analytics firm. The numbers cover homes in metro areas with a population of 200,000 or more.
Economics of Club Football
A series of financial scandals have rocked Italy’s
most glamorous club. But is the trouble at Juventus symptomatic of a deeper rot
in world football?
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/apr/25/inside-the-crisis-at-juventus-andrea-agnelli-fabio-paratici-plusvalenze
“The biggest problem in football finances,” says Roger Mitchell, founding CEO of the Scottish Professional Football League and now a sports-brand consultant based in Italy, “isn’t the top line, it’s the cost line, the player-wages line. And 92% is at least 20% higher than where it should be.”
With revenues bound to fluctuate according to results and qualification for lucrative competitions like the Champions League, such a high wage bill was an obvious hostage to fortune. And when the pandemic arrived, Juventus was especially vulnerable.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2023/apr/25/inside-the-crisis-at-juventus-andrea-agnelli-fabio-paratici-plusvalenze
“The biggest problem in football finances,” says Roger Mitchell, founding CEO of the Scottish Professional Football League and now a sports-brand consultant based in Italy, “isn’t the top line, it’s the cost line, the player-wages line. And 92% is at least 20% higher than where it should be.”
With revenues bound to fluctuate according to results and qualification for lucrative competitions like the Champions League, such a high wage bill was an obvious hostage to fortune. And when the pandemic arrived, Juventus was especially vulnerable.
Global Supply Chains Evolve
Here’s How Supply Chains Are Being Reshaped for a
New Era of Global Trade
https://www.wsj.com/articles/supply-chains-have-changed-forever-819d9afd
Nearshoring. Automation. Supplier diversification. Sustainability. Companies are adapting their operations to changing market pressures and geopolitics.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/supply-chains-have-changed-forever-819d9afd
Nearshoring. Automation. Supplier diversification. Sustainability. Companies are adapting their operations to changing market pressures and geopolitics.
Vietnam, Taiwan boost share of shipments to U.S. as
China loses out
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Vietnam-Taiwan-boost-share-of-shipments-to-U.S.-as-China-loses-out
India, Cambodia also grow as 'low-cost' exporters, eroding Chinese dominance
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Vietnam-Taiwan-boost-share-of-shipments-to-U.S.-as-China-loses-out
India, Cambodia also grow as 'low-cost' exporters, eroding Chinese dominance
Monday, April 24, 2023
How to Innovate
If There Are No New Ideas, How Do We Keep
Innovating?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/opinion/sheena-iyengar-innovation.html
Now comes a book by Sheena Iyengar, who is herself blind, that I’m tempted to call original, except that she (like Twain) would undoubtedly insist that there’s nothing new under the sun. In “Think Bigger: How to Innovate,” Iyengar writes that thinking bigger is about assembling old ideas in a new way. Sounding much like Twain in 1903, she writes that all successful innovators are “strategic copiers,” who “learned from examples of success, extracted the parts that worked well, imagined new ways of using those pieces, and combined them to create something new and meaningful.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/opinion/sheena-iyengar-innovation.html
Now comes a book by Sheena Iyengar, who is herself blind, that I’m tempted to call original, except that she (like Twain) would undoubtedly insist that there’s nothing new under the sun. In “Think Bigger: How to Innovate,” Iyengar writes that thinking bigger is about assembling old ideas in a new way. Sounding much like Twain in 1903, she writes that all successful innovators are “strategic copiers,” who “learned from examples of success, extracted the parts that worked well, imagined new ways of using those pieces, and combined them to create something new and meaningful.”
Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability
MY TAKE: America’s
long-term fiscal sustainability challenge
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3965613-americas-long-term-fiscal-sustainability-challenge/
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3965613-americas-long-term-fiscal-sustainability-challenge/
America’s Faustian Pact with runaway debt is coming
due
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/30/america-faustian-pact-runaway-debt-coming-due/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/05/30/america-faustian-pact-runaway-debt-coming-due/
The Downside of Remote Work
What Young Workers Miss Without the ‘Power of
Proximity’
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/business/remote-work-feedback.html
One of the first major studies on remote work shows a hidden penalty of flexibility: less supervision.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/business/remote-work-feedback.html
One of the first major studies on remote work shows a hidden penalty of flexibility: less supervision.
Is Working from Home Really Working?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/22/opinion/remote-work-salesforce-meta-working-from-home.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/22/opinion/remote-work-salesforce-meta-working-from-home.html
Labor Issues
The True Cost of a $12 T-Shirt
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/opinion/fast-fashion-apparel-worker-conditions-rana-plaza.html
The apparel industry suffers from what economists call an “agency problem.” Brands rely on auditors to uncover violations in factories — then often require the factories to pay for their own audits. Unsurprisingly, the typical audit is short, untrustworthy and, as Transparentem found at most audited factories we investigated, easily gamed. Suppliers, already operating on razor-thin margins, cannot afford to lose customers. Nor can the auditors, who often show little interest in scrutinizing their clients to the point of discomfort.
The movement to strip child labor law protections can be traced to one group
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/23/child-labor-lobbying-fga/
The Foundation for Government Accountability, a Florida-based think tank and lobbying group, drafted state legislation to strip child workplace protections, emails show.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/opinion/fast-fashion-apparel-worker-conditions-rana-plaza.html
The apparel industry suffers from what economists call an “agency problem.” Brands rely on auditors to uncover violations in factories — then often require the factories to pay for their own audits. Unsurprisingly, the typical audit is short, untrustworthy and, as Transparentem found at most audited factories we investigated, easily gamed. Suppliers, already operating on razor-thin margins, cannot afford to lose customers. Nor can the auditors, who often show little interest in scrutinizing their clients to the point of discomfort.
The movement to strip child labor law protections can be traced to one group
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/23/child-labor-lobbying-fga/
The Foundation for Government Accountability, a Florida-based think tank and lobbying group, drafted state legislation to strip child workplace protections, emails show.
Crypto - Scams and Confidence Tricksters
Why America Should Ban Crypto
The Case for Banning Crypto
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/crypto-currency-finance-blockchain-case-banning-rewards
For Finance, the Blockchain’s Risks Far Outweigh Its Rewards
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/crypto-currency-finance-blockchain-case-banning-rewards
For Finance, the Blockchain’s Risks Far Outweigh Its Rewards
The Real-World Costs of the Digital Race for Bitcoin
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/business/bitcoin-mining-electricity-pollution.html
Bitcoin mines cash in on electricity — by devouring it, selling it, even turning it off — and they cause immense pollution. In many cases, the public pays a price.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/09/business/bitcoin-mining-electricity-pollution.html
Bitcoin mines cash in on electricity — by devouring it, selling it, even turning it off — and they cause immense pollution. In many cases, the public pays a price.
The Crypto Collapse and the End of Magical Thinking That Infected Capitalism
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/opinion/the-crypto-collapse-magical-thinking-capitalism.html
Harvard’s Mihir Desai notes:
I have come to view cryptocurrencies not simply as exotic assets but as a manifestation of a magical thinking that had come to infect part of the generation who grew up in the aftermath of the Great Recession — and American capitalism, more broadly.
For these purposes, magical thinking is the assumption that favored conditions will continue on forever without regard for history. It is the minimizing of constraints and trade-offs in favor of techno-utopianism and the exclusive emphasis on positive outcomes and novelty. It is the conflation of virtue with commerce.
Harvard’s Mihir Desai notes:
I have come to view cryptocurrencies not simply as exotic assets but as a manifestation of a magical thinking that had come to infect part of the generation who grew up in the aftermath of the Great Recession — and American capitalism, more broadly.
For these purposes, magical thinking is the assumption that favored conditions will continue on forever without regard for history. It is the minimizing of constraints and trade-offs in favor of techno-utopianism and the exclusive emphasis on positive outcomes and novelty. It is the conflation of virtue with commerce.
Beware the ‘sensible’ crypto crowd — they’re worse than the fanatics
https://www.ft.com/content/29605ca8-494a-4762-bedc-43e3671226ab
The strait-laced, earnest types threaten to legitimise a high-risk, opaque and ill-understood industry
https://www.ft.com/content/29605ca8-494a-4762-bedc-43e3671226ab
The strait-laced, earnest types threaten to legitimise a high-risk, opaque and ill-understood industry
Crypto Is Mostly Over. Its Carbon Emissions Are Not.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/03/crypto-bitcoin-mining-carbon-emissions-climate-change-impact/673468/
And it is America’s problem now. After China clamped down on crypto mining in 2021, such computing work increased in the United States. Miners set up shop in communities with low energy prices. And owners of unprofitable power-generation infrastructure, such as waste-coal-burning power plants, opened up crypto-mining operations to create another revenue stream. These companies have put a lot of money into their hardware and their physical space, and they will continue mining until they are actively losing money.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/03/crypto-bitcoin-mining-carbon-emissions-climate-change-impact/673468/
And it is America’s problem now. After China clamped down on crypto mining in 2021, such computing work increased in the United States. Miners set up shop in communities with low energy prices. And owners of unprofitable power-generation infrastructure, such as waste-coal-burning power plants, opened up crypto-mining operations to create another revenue stream. These companies have put a lot of money into their hardware and their physical space, and they will continue mining until they are actively losing money.
Crash Course: Cryptocurrencies Vs. Reality
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-02-28/crash-course-crypto-reality-sbf-and-the-winklevoss-twins
We Are All Gamblers Now, From Sports to Crypto
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/we-are-all-gamblers-nowfrom-sports-to-crypto/2023/03/02/53779c7c-b90a-11ed-b0df-8ca14de679ad_story.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-02-28/crash-course-crypto-reality-sbf-and-the-winklevoss-twins
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/we-are-all-gamblers-nowfrom-sports-to-crypto/2023/03/02/53779c7c-b90a-11ed-b0df-8ca14de679ad_story.html
Nothing Redeems Crypto
https://www.wsj.com/articles/nothing-redeems-cryptocurrency-ftx-sec-regulation-carbon-mining-hardware-gambling-tokens-exchange-dee0c358
Part chlorofluorocarbon, part cocaine, part bearer bond. We need policies that will eliminate it.
Part chlorofluorocarbon, part cocaine, part bearer bond. We need policies that will eliminate it.
Sunday, April 23, 2023
The Downside of Thinking Like an Economist
Thinking Like an Economist: How Efficiency Replaced
Equality in U.S. Public Policy
https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/capitalisnt-has-thinking-like-economist-distorted-our-politics
https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/capitalisnt-has-thinking-like-economist-distorted-our-politics
Related:
Can We Trust Economists?
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/04/books/review/the-economists-hour-binyamin-appelbaum.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/04/books/review/the-economists-hour-binyamin-appelbaum.html
Sino-Indian Rivalry
The Upside of Rivalry: India’s Great-Power
Opportunity
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/india/modi-new-delhi-upside-rivalry
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/india/modi-new-delhi-upside-rivalry
The Sino-Indian Rivalry Is Reshaping Asia
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-cannot-win-india-himalayan-border-dispute-by-brahma-chellaney-2023-04
By standing up to Chinese territorial encroachments, India has openly challenged Xi Jinping’s expansionism in a way that no other world power has done. The current military stalemate in the Himalayas serves as yet another reminder that Xi has picked a border fight with India that he cannot win.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-cannot-win-india-himalayan-border-dispute-by-brahma-chellaney-2023-04
By standing up to Chinese territorial encroachments, India has openly challenged Xi Jinping’s expansionism in a way that no other world power has done. The current military stalemate in the Himalayas serves as yet another reminder that Xi has picked a border fight with India that he cannot win.
History Lesson: The Collapse of Sudan
The seeds of Sudan’s collapse were sown decades ago
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/23/sudan-conflict-power-struggle-darfur-genocide
Related:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/20/sudan-civil-war-biden-burhan-hemeti-foreign-policy/
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/23/sudan-conflict-power-struggle-darfur-genocide
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/20/sudan-civil-war-biden-burhan-hemeti-foreign-policy/
Urban Housing and Luxury Condos - An Example of a Market Failure?
Cities Keep Building Luxury Apartments Almost No
One Can Afford
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-04-21/luxury-apartment-boom-pushes-out-affordable-housing-in-austin-texas
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-04-21/luxury-apartment-boom-pushes-out-affordable-housing-in-austin-texas
College Admissions - The Truth About Selectivity
Why Those Super Low College Admissions Rates Can Be
Misleading
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/22/opinion/college-admissions.html
Since applying is easier (or at least involves fewer postage stamps than it did back in the day), does this mean more students who have relatively little chance of getting into these selective institutions, based on their grades and résumés, are applying? Connie Livingston — who was an admissions officer at Brown for 14 years and is now the head of college counselors at Empowerly, a private counseling company — told me that before the pandemic, qualified applicants made up around 75 to 85 percent of the applicant pool.
Now she thinks there are some students who are “throwing their hat in the game just to see what happens” and that “the number’s probably down to about 60 percent, 65 percent of applicants,” who meet the recommended standardized test scores and grades of the schools they apply to. Livingston cited the common app as a reason for the influx of applications, but she also noted that the loosening of standardized testing requirements played a potential role as well.
The College-Admissions Process Is Completely Broken
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/change-college-acceptance-application-process/627581/
"Although the average four-year college in the U.S. accepts nearly 60 percent of applicants, many schools indicate they are more selective than they are by telling prospective students that they practice “holistic” admissions, considering factors beyond grades and test scores. This approach, which attempts to measure qualities that aren’t quantifiable and are usually gleaned from an applicant’s extracurricular activities, essays, and recommendations, is loved and hated in equal measure by parents and students. Both favor a method that focuses on the “whole student” until they discover that applicants who had lower GPAs or test scores were accepted.
Holistic admissions may sound great, but many admissions offices at less-selective colleges make the bulk of their decisions by assessing the rigor of an applicant’s high-school courses and grades".
A majority of U.S. colleges admit most students who
apply
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/04/09/a-majority-of-u-s-colleges-admit-most-students-who-apply/
The extremely competitive schools amounted to 3.4% of all the colleges and universities in this analysis, and they accounted for just 4.1% of total student enrollment. By contrast, more than half of the schools in our sample (53.3%) admitted two-thirds or more of their applicants in 2017, including such well-known names as St. John’s University in New York (67.7%), Virginia Tech (70.1%), Quinnipiac University (73.9%), the University of Missouri at Columbia (78.1%) and George Mason University (81.3%).
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/22/opinion/college-admissions.html
Since applying is easier (or at least involves fewer postage stamps than it did back in the day), does this mean more students who have relatively little chance of getting into these selective institutions, based on their grades and résumés, are applying? Connie Livingston — who was an admissions officer at Brown for 14 years and is now the head of college counselors at Empowerly, a private counseling company — told me that before the pandemic, qualified applicants made up around 75 to 85 percent of the applicant pool.
Now she thinks there are some students who are “throwing their hat in the game just to see what happens” and that “the number’s probably down to about 60 percent, 65 percent of applicants,” who meet the recommended standardized test scores and grades of the schools they apply to. Livingston cited the common app as a reason for the influx of applications, but she also noted that the loosening of standardized testing requirements played a potential role as well.
The College-Admissions Process Is Completely Broken
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/change-college-acceptance-application-process/627581/
"Although the average four-year college in the U.S. accepts nearly 60 percent of applicants, many schools indicate they are more selective than they are by telling prospective students that they practice “holistic” admissions, considering factors beyond grades and test scores. This approach, which attempts to measure qualities that aren’t quantifiable and are usually gleaned from an applicant’s extracurricular activities, essays, and recommendations, is loved and hated in equal measure by parents and students. Both favor a method that focuses on the “whole student” until they discover that applicants who had lower GPAs or test scores were accepted.
Holistic admissions may sound great, but many admissions offices at less-selective colleges make the bulk of their decisions by assessing the rigor of an applicant’s high-school courses and grades".
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/04/09/a-majority-of-u-s-colleges-admit-most-students-who-apply/
The extremely competitive schools amounted to 3.4% of all the colleges and universities in this analysis, and they accounted for just 4.1% of total student enrollment. By contrast, more than half of the schools in our sample (53.3%) admitted two-thirds or more of their applicants in 2017, including such well-known names as St. John’s University in New York (67.7%), Virginia Tech (70.1%), Quinnipiac University (73.9%), the University of Missouri at Columbia (78.1%) and George Mason University (81.3%).
Saturday, April 22, 2023
Life on Earth
3 unexplainable mysteries of life on Earth
https://www.vox.com/unexplainable/23616700/unexplainable-mysteries-life-earth
https://www.vox.com/unexplainable/23616700/unexplainable-mysteries-life-earth
The Downside of Success
Americans Escaping Pricey Cities Bring Higher
Housing Costs, Inflation with Them
https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-escaping-pricey-cities-bring-higher-housing-costs-inflation-with-them-a3118424
Inflation in some warm-weather metro areas such as Tampa, Phoenix and Atlanta is more than 2 percentage points higher than the national rate.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-escaping-pricey-cities-bring-higher-housing-costs-inflation-with-them-a3118424
Inflation in some warm-weather metro areas such as Tampa, Phoenix and Atlanta is more than 2 percentage points higher than the national rate.
America versus Switzerland
The average American my age is roughly six times
more likely to die in the coming year than his counterpart in Switzerland.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/04/america-mortality-rate-guns-health/673799/
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/04/america-mortality-rate-guns-health/673799/
The Magazine Cover Curse
The Economist Cover:
Is the American Economy Awesome?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/opinion/us-economy-gdp.html
https://medium.com/@mbrentdonnelly/a-somewhat-empirical-look-at-the-magazine-cover-indicator-2d0ca835f7d1
The Magazine Cover Indicator is a belief commonly held by financial market participants that when a financial story or market theme is displayed on the cover of a magazine, that theme or the related trend is near exhaustion. In other words, magazine covers are believed to be reverse indicators.
Two very famous examples are when BusinessWeek’s cover screamed: “The Death of Equities”, at the stock market lows in 1979 and when The Economist proclaimed the world to be: “Drowning in Oil” just as oil bottomed in 1999.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2014-10-27/investment-signals-in-a-magazine-cover
The magazine cover story for a general news magazine can serve as a contrary investment indicator.
My personal favorite:
Friday, April 21, 2023
Reconsidering the Legacy of Arthur Burns
America’s Inflation Villain Gets a Makeover
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/business/economy/arthur-burns-inflation-paul-volcker.html
Rethinking Arthur Burns, the “Worst” Fed Chair in
History
https://democracyjournal.org/magazine/67/rethinking-arthur-burns-the-worst-fed-chair-in-history/
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/business/economy/arthur-burns-inflation-paul-volcker.html
https://democracyjournal.org/magazine/67/rethinking-arthur-burns-the-worst-fed-chair-in-history/
Money Markets - Time to Shine
The Fabulous Yields, and Lurking Risks, of Money
Market Funds
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/business/money-market-funds.html
Rates on C.D.s Are Soaring, but the High Rates May
Not Last
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/your-money/cd-bank-interest-rates.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/business/money-market-funds.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/your-money/cd-bank-interest-rates.html
The Future of Interest Rates
The future of interest rates is a riddle
https://www.ft.com/content/c3491bc1-1251-4274-acfd-c7a24a236b5e
Low Rates Were Meant to Last. Without Them, Finance Is In for a Rough Ride.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/16/business/economy/interest-rates-silicon-valley-bank.html
Will the ‘Great Moderation’ Give Way to the ‘Great Volatility’? By VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR (SPRING 2023)
https://www.ut.edu/uploadedFiles/Academics/Business/TBESpring2023_Final.pdf
New era of inflation will bedevil central banks and bond markets by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR, The Hill - 07/01/22
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3543857-new-era-of-inflation-will-bedevil-central-banks-and-bond-markets/
https://www.ft.com/content/c3491bc1-1251-4274-acfd-c7a24a236b5e
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/16/business/economy/interest-rates-silicon-valley-bank.html
https://www.ut.edu/uploadedFiles/Academics/Business/TBESpring2023_Final.pdf
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3543857-new-era-of-inflation-will-bedevil-central-banks-and-bond-markets/
AI versus Humans
Dreams of Replacing Humans in Finance May Come True
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/21/dreams-of-ai-replacing-humans-in-finance-may-come-true/d00d85a2-e025-11ed-a78e-9a7c2418b00c_story.html
We’re now seeing the first academic research about the use of ChatGPT in finance. Two recent studies make GPT seem like a promising technology both to improve investment decision making and to explain its decisions. Perhaps the long-held dream of replacing humans in finance is coming true.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/04/21/dreams-of-ai-replacing-humans-in-finance-may-come-true/d00d85a2-e025-11ed-a78e-9a7c2418b00c_story.html
We’re now seeing the first academic research about the use of ChatGPT in finance. Two recent studies make GPT seem like a promising technology both to improve investment decision making and to explain its decisions. Perhaps the long-held dream of replacing humans in finance is coming true.
How to defend against the rise of ChatGPT? Think
like a poet.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/20/chatgpt-poetry-ai-language/
In the AI age, language — not science, engineering or mathematics — could be the hill humanity dies on.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/20/chatgpt-poetry-ai-language/
In the AI age, language — not science, engineering or mathematics — could be the hill humanity dies on.
The Secret History of AI, and a Hint at What’s Next
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-history-of-ai-and-a-hint-at-whats-next-428905de
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-history-of-ai-and-a-hint-at-whats-next-428905de
America's Democratic Paralysis
Republicans follow their new leader, Marjorie
Taylor Greene
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/21/marjorie-taylor-greene-homeland-security-committee-house-gop/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/21/marjorie-taylor-greene-homeland-security-committee-house-gop/
We will hold the country hostage until our demands
are met — once we know them
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/21/republican-debt-ceiling-standoff-holdup-satire/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/21/republican-debt-ceiling-standoff-holdup-satire/
Lionel Shriver:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-democrats-want-trump/
A hefty majority of Americans want neither Trump nor Biden to run again (in a November CNBC poll, 61 per cent wanted to be shed of Trump altogether, while an astonishing 70 per cent didn’t want Biden to bid for a second term either, including 57 per cent of Democrats). That would be me: please, please, can we move on from this presidential Groundhog Day? Yet so far, an even more wearying and more geriatric redo of 2020 seems on the cards. Sorry – this is functional democracy? How is this happening? Isn’t the main merit of this system of government meant to be that the majority of us get at least what we sort of want?
How ‘I despise, therefore I am’ locks in the
political status quo
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/12/republican-democrat-poisonous-partisanship/
George Will:
Foresight, it has been said, is a dream from which events awaken us. But until events teach otherwise, expect American politics to continue today’s remarkable condition: boiling but frozen. Polarization has produced stasis. In this century’s presidential elections from 2000 to 2020, 36 states have voted only for one party’s nominee.
Top GOP lawyer decries ease of campus voting in private pitch to RNC
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/04/20/cleta-mitchell-voting-college-students/
America’s Redistricting Process Is Breaking
Democracy
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/americas-redistricting-process-is-breaking-democracy
How gerrymandering makes the US House intensely
partisan
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/25/politics/gerrymandering-us-house-partisan/index.html
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-democrats-want-trump/
A hefty majority of Americans want neither Trump nor Biden to run again (in a November CNBC poll, 61 per cent wanted to be shed of Trump altogether, while an astonishing 70 per cent didn’t want Biden to bid for a second term either, including 57 per cent of Democrats). That would be me: please, please, can we move on from this presidential Groundhog Day? Yet so far, an even more wearying and more geriatric redo of 2020 seems on the cards. Sorry – this is functional democracy? How is this happening? Isn’t the main merit of this system of government meant to be that the majority of us get at least what we sort of want?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/12/republican-democrat-poisonous-partisanship/
George Will:
Foresight, it has been said, is a dream from which events awaken us. But until events teach otherwise, expect American politics to continue today’s remarkable condition: boiling but frozen. Polarization has produced stasis. In this century’s presidential elections from 2000 to 2020, 36 states have voted only for one party’s nominee.
Top GOP lawyer decries ease of campus voting in private pitch to RNC
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/04/20/cleta-mitchell-voting-college-students/
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/americas-redistricting-process-is-breaking-democracy
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/25/politics/gerrymandering-us-house-partisan/index.html
Thursday, April 20, 2023
El Niño and La Niña
El Niño and La Niña cause extreme weather
Related:
People Who Live in Glass Houses Shouldn't Throw Stones
The best way to strengthen India’s democracy? Leave it to the Indians.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/20/india-democracy-indians-strengthen/
There are many reasons for this. The brutality of the British Empire birthed a reflexive anti-imperial instinct. Indians do not like being reprimanded by the West. Hypocrisy is another trigger. On the very day the State Department spokesman commented on Gandhi’s expulsion, the United States was grappling with a school shooting in Nashville in which seven people, three of them 9-year old children, were killed — including the perpetrator. A viral photo of a congressman from the area and his family posing with rifles in front of their Christmas tree made it even harder for Indians to see the United States as the global arbiter of democratic and civic values.
Since then, there has been a shooting in Louisville and the attack on Ralph Yarl, a Black teenager. Yet 146 mass shootings this year (as of April 10) have not generated gratuitous opprobrium from the Indian government. Indian editorials on the United States are not all about gun violence, entrenched racism and the denial of reproductive autonomy to millions of American women. And if they were, they would hardly create a stir in Washington.
So Indians wonder why we are expected to accept preaching or judgment in reverse.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/20/india-democracy-indians-strengthen/
There are many reasons for this. The brutality of the British Empire birthed a reflexive anti-imperial instinct. Indians do not like being reprimanded by the West. Hypocrisy is another trigger. On the very day the State Department spokesman commented on Gandhi’s expulsion, the United States was grappling with a school shooting in Nashville in which seven people, three of them 9-year old children, were killed — including the perpetrator. A viral photo of a congressman from the area and his family posing with rifles in front of their Christmas tree made it even harder for Indians to see the United States as the global arbiter of democratic and civic values.
Since then, there has been a shooting in Louisville and the attack on Ralph Yarl, a Black teenager. Yet 146 mass shootings this year (as of April 10) have not generated gratuitous opprobrium from the Indian government. Indian editorials on the United States are not all about gun violence, entrenched racism and the denial of reproductive autonomy to millions of American women. And if they were, they would hardly create a stir in Washington.
So Indians wonder why we are expected to accept preaching or judgment in reverse.
Related:
Gun absolutists don’t trust democracy because they
know they’re losing
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/16/nra-convention-republicans-guns-democracy/
Why are Americans being shot for knocking on the
wrong door?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/19/why-are-americans-being-shot-for-knocking-on-the-wrong-door
Conservatives love judicial activism – as long as
the law is moved in their favor
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/17/conservatives-judicial-activism-abortion-mifepristone
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/16/nra-convention-republicans-guns-democracy/
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/19/why-are-americans-being-shot-for-knocking-on-the-wrong-door
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/17/conservatives-judicial-activism-abortion-mifepristone
Better Ways to Study
There Are Better Ways to Study That Will Last You a Lifetime
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/20/opinion/studying-learning-students-teachers-school.html
For example, student surveys show that rereading notes or textbooks is the most common way students prepare for a test. Rereading is easy because the mind can skitter along the surface of the material without closely considering its meaning, but that’s exactly why it’s a poor way to learn. If you want to learn the meaning — as most tests require you to — then you must think about meaning when you study...
And so, as students reread their textbooks, the increasing familiarity makes them think they are learning. But because they are not thinking about the meaning of what they read, they aren’t improving the knowledge that actually builds understanding.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/20/opinion/studying-learning-students-teachers-school.html
For example, student surveys show that rereading notes or textbooks is the most common way students prepare for a test. Rereading is easy because the mind can skitter along the surface of the material without closely considering its meaning, but that’s exactly why it’s a poor way to learn. If you want to learn the meaning — as most tests require you to — then you must think about meaning when you study...
And so, as students reread their textbooks, the increasing familiarity makes them think they are learning. But because they are not thinking about the meaning of what they read, they aren’t improving the knowledge that actually builds understanding.
AI and the Creative World
An A.I. Hit of Fake ‘Drake’ and ‘The Weeknd’
Rattles the Music World
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/arts/music/ai-drake-the-weeknd-fake.html
‘AI isn’t a threat’ – Boris Eldagsen, whose fake
photo duped the Sony judges, hits back
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2023/apr/18/ai-threat-boris-eldagsen-fake-photo-duped-sony-judges-hits-back
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/arts/music/ai-drake-the-weeknd-fake.html
https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2023/apr/18/ai-threat-boris-eldagsen-fake-photo-duped-sony-judges-hits-back
Wednesday, April 19, 2023
Debt Crisis Hits the Developing World (Again)
How to Avoid Another Global Debt Crisis
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/17/opinion/imf-debt-crisis-china.html
China’s Lending Practices Are Not a Good Look
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/opinion/china-imf-lending.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/17/opinion/imf-debt-crisis-china.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/opinion/china-imf-lending.html
De-Dollarization Is Happening
De-Dollarization Is Happening at a ‘Stunning’ Pace,
Jen Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-18/de-dollarization-is-happening-at-a-stunning-pace-jen-says
Related:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollarization-happening-stunning-pace-jen-082144378.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-18/de-dollarization-is-happening-at-a-stunning-pace-jen-says
Related:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollarization-happening-stunning-pace-jen-082144378.html
My take from March 1, 2022:
The weaponization of finance threatens the future of the dollar standard
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