Attention Economy


Sunday, May 31, 2020

Labor Market Stress

NYC’s Finance Jobs Won’t Recover for Six Years, Analysis Shows

Average Workers Can’t Bear Any More Risk
Yale’s Jacob Hacker notes:
“The flip side is that a dynamic free-market economy without sound safety nets breeds backlash. And if that backlash doesn’t deliver social insurance—because, say, the party in power is hostile to the welfare state—it will deliver social discord instead. Denying risks doesn’t make them disappear. It just puts democracy and markets on a collision course”. 


Unemployment Benefits Aren’t Too High. Wages Are Too Low.

‘Just Sitting in Limbo.’ For Many Professionals, Careers Are on Hold.

Will COVID-19 Leave Lasting Economic Scars?

Money Creation

Saturday, May 30, 2020

India - Economic and Political Update

Global Supply Chains
Pandemic Is an Opportunity for Developing Nations
As Covid-19 Disrupts Global Supply Chains, Will Companies Turn to India?
India’s distant dream of becoming the world’s big factory
The world needs pharmaceuticals from China and India to beat coronavirus

Dealing with the Coronavirus Shock
These Startups Are Combating Covid-19 With Grants from An Indian Billionaire
PM Modi's Letter to Nation Talks of Migrant Workers' Suffering
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/pm-narendra-modi-letter-to-nation-tremendous-suffering-says-pm-referring-to-migrants-2237546
The Rich Love India’s Lockdown. For the Poor It’s Another Story.

Economics of Arms Sales

Crises are fueling the global arms trade: SIPRI report

Russian arms exports to Africa: Moscow's long-term strategy

Population Heterogeneity and Support for Welfare Programs

Racism Is the Biggest Reason the U.S. Safety Net Is So Weak
Noah Smith notes:
“Economists are often criticized for ignoring the political aspects of their theories. At least since the end of World War II, economists have generally seen their role as offering expert advice to wise technocratic leaders -- “whispering in the ears of princes.” But in the real world, leaders with both the wisdom to listen to academic experts and the power to implement any much less all of their recommendations are quite rare; more often, the political world is a tangle of interest groups, culture wars, partisan bickering and electoral expediency …
… the key isn't how similar the inhabitants of a country might appear on paper, but how much they see themselves as one people; fractionalization is in the mind, rather than in the genes. That implies that the way forward for the U.S. and other diverse countries, to become more equal and prosperous, is to de-emphasize racial and ethnic divisions and promote a shared identity.”.

The legacy of Alberto Alesina

Western Media Coverage - Domestic versus International Issues

How Western media would cover Minneapolis if it happened in another country
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/29/how-western-media-would-cover-minneapolis-if-it-happened-another-country/

Shayera Dark notes:
“This penchant to accentuate the negative does more than reduce Africa to stereotypes; it also feeds the one-dimensional narrative of Africa as a war-torn, disease-ridden, poverty-stricken hellscape where all hope dies. This inclination to fit people and events into simple plot lines leads to what Nigerian author Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie calls the “danger of a single story.” A limited viewpoint, repeatedly promulgated, comes to frame all coverage and emerges as the only truth.”

Related:
Hiding the Real Africa

Friday, May 29, 2020

Debating the Shape of the Economic Recovery

Forget Swooshes and V’s. The Economy’s Future Is a Question Mark.

Why Economic Pain Could Persist Even After the Pandemic Is Contained
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/11/upshot/virus-lasting-economic-effects.html

Weekend Readings - May 29-30

Germany says it wants to make Europe ‘strong again’

Fast-acting countries cut their coronavirus death rates while US delays cost thousands of lives

Manhattan Faces a Reckoning if Working from Home Becomes the Norm
Banning Chinese STEM Students Would Backfire on U.S.

China-US rivalry and threats to globalisation recall ominous past
https://www.ft.com/content/5887ec6c-9d97-11ea-b65d-489c67b0d85d

The Significance of Hong Kong

Hong Kong was a global crossroads. Now it’s a fault line.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/05/29/hong-kong-autonomy-china-trump/

Carmen Reinhart – World Bank’s New Chief Economist

Is There a Link between Inflation and Equity Returns?

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Lockdown Exit and Risk of a Second Wave

US Economy: Is the Worst Over?

Should Colleges Reopen in Fall?

The Long Shadow of Cold War Politics

A Cold War legacy many Americans forget

China Rivalry May Put the U.S. Back in the Coup Business

How the Taliban Outlasted a Superpower: Tenacity and Carnage
“A grim history looms. The last time an occupying power left Afghanistan — when the U.S.-backed mujahedeen insurgency helped push the Soviets to withdraw in 1989 — guerrillas toppled the remaining government and then fought each other over its remains, with the Taliban coming out on top….
Over the years, the group’s top leadership has mostly remained in Pakistan, where the insurgency’s reconstitution was supported by Inter-Services Intelligence, the Pakistani military spy agency. Those havens have offered continuity even as the rank and file suffer heavy casualties in Afghanistan”.

Book Recommendation:


Financial Nationalism - New Dimension in the China-US Conflict

U.S. Nationalism Pits the Financial World Against China

America’s Delisting Threat Could Pay Off
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/benefit-of-threatening-to-delist-chinese-companies-by-shang-jin-wei-2020-05

Fears of Wall Street delisting drive Chinese companies to Plan B

Trump’s demonization of China puts U.S. in financial peril

Monday, May 25, 2020

Political Economist Alberto Alesina

It is hard to imagine the field of political economy without Alberto Alesina

Rich Chinese Go Real Estate Shopping

Challenges Facing the Business World

The Covid Surcharge: Companies Confront the Unforgiving Economics of Coronavirus

Interview – Jonathan Haidt

A Global Debt Problem

Sunday, May 24, 2020

Dealing with China

What Kind of Regime Does China Have? By FRANCIS FUKUYAMA

Democrats are falling into a familiar trap on China
Zakaria notes:
“Republicans take a legitimate challenge to the United States and pump it up into a mortal danger, massively exaggerating the threat and accusing the Democrats of appeasement or even of taking part in a conspiracy with the enemy. And Democrats, instead of standing their ground, get scared and join in the scaremongering. In response to ads bashing Biden and China, Biden released his own China-bashing ad, which even competed with Trump in its racially charged tone. Rather than explaining that policy toward China requires both confrontation and cooperation, the Biden campaign has basically conceded the argument to Trump”. 

Work and Pay

Pay Cuts Become a Tool for Some Companies to Avoid Layoffs

Why Facebook’s Plan to Tie Remote Pay to Location Will Probably Fail
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/facebooks-plan-to-tie-pay-to-location-will-probably-fail.html

A Pessimistic Economic Forecast

Larry Summers on Globalization

Saturday, May 23, 2020

Foreign Students in the US

Will Trump Opt to Restrict Foreign Student Work Program?
Trump reportedly wants to restrict visa programs for skilled workers
Trump Administration Expected to Limit Work Program for Foreign Graduates
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-expected-to-limit-work-program-for-foreign-graduates-11590242401

Foreign STEM Graduates Are Being Shut Out of the U.S. Job Market

Debating the Future of Colleges/Universities

College as We Know It Coming to an End? Don’t Bet on It
Joe Nocera observes:
“Do you remember MOOCs? The initials stand for massive open online courses, and there was a moment, about a decade ago, when they were all the rage in higher-education circles. Some predicted that online courses would become a dominant mode of learning, allowing universities to expand enrollment significantly while lowering their own costs. Although MOOCs are still around—mainly serving nonstudents paying for online lectures from high-profile professors—their impact on higher ed has been marginal. The reason is that students didn’t like online classes. Neither did their parents. And neither did their professors”.

Scott Galloway predicts a handful of elite cyborg universities will soon monopolize higher education.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/scott-galloway-future-of-college.html
The liberal arts are under attack. So why do the rich want their children to study them?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2019/05/26/liberal-arts-are-under-attack-so-why-do-rich-want-their-children-study-them/

A looming shortage of students will upend the business model of higher education

Friday, May 22, 2020

America’s Creaky Welfare System

Diminishing Marginal Returns – Interesting Real-World Example

China Is Too Rich to Splurge on Infrastructure
As countries get wealthier, additional spending is unlikely to deliver the same kick to growth

Lessons from Germany

Emerging Market Debt Crisis

The Pandemic Pushes Emerging Markets into a Debt Crisis, Yet Again

The Rich World’s Pandemic Imperative

Time for a Selective Debt Jubilee

Making Colleges More Affordable

Income Share Agreements: Some schools are offering to buy a share of students’ future income in exchange for funding their education.

Purdue’s Bold Experiment with College Tuition Freeze

Thursday, May 21, 2020

Wealth Creation

Does India Need Additional Fiscal Stimulus?

Will Inflation or Deflation Follow the Pandemic?

Education and Human Capital: Boosting Africa's Universities

Trump and US Institutions

The System Failed the Test of Trump
The story of recent years is of institutions that were unable to constrain the presidency.
DAVID FRUM, former speechwriter for President George W. Bush:
“The story of the Trump years is a story of institutions that failed. The Department of Justice failed. The inspectors general failed. Congressional oversight failed. The national-security establishment failed. The courts failed. Trump has done things that no previous American president would ever have dared, that no previous president sank low enough even to imagine. Sometimes he was stopped, more often not. But whether stopped or not in any particular case, he has never ceased pressing ahead to do even worse the next time”. 

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

US Healthcare Sector in Turmoil

1.5 Million Unemployed Health-Care Workers Signal a Failed System
Fee-for-service has been a disaster for medical providers in the pandemic, and there is a better alternative. But will anybody switch? 

Voters and American Democracy

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Impact of the Pandemic on the Higher Education System

How the Pandemic Could Transform Higher Ed
WSJ – Video: https://on.wsj.com/2zQow2a

The pandemic increases the challenges facing business schools

Cambridge University moves all lectures online until summer 2021
Cambridge University to scrap face-to-face lectures for entire year due to pandemic
“Cambridge and Oxford, the UK's two leading universities, rely far more on smaller group teaching than large lectures -- so the move will probably not be as disruptive as it would be at most institutions”.

UK universities facing £760m hit as one in five students plan to defer
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/may/20/uk-universities-facing-760m-hit-one-in-five-students-plan-defer

US Economic Outlook

Covid-19 Will Expose the Ghosts in the U.S. Economy

Unemployment is so bad that these economists are proposing a new way to measure it

Facing Adulthood with an Economic Disaster’s Lasting Scars

Washington shows just why the country shouldn’t depend on it for stimulus

Stock Prices Make Lofty Promises That Earnings Can’t Keep

Monday, May 18, 2020

Beware of the Hype

Moderna vaccine shows promising early results
“One of Moderna’s directors, Moncef Slaoui — who owns millions in company stock options — days ago left his role to become chief scientist for a White House vaccine initiative”.
Washington Post reports:
“The company reported that in eight patients who had been followed for a month and a half, the vaccine at low and medium doses triggered blood levels of virus-fighting antibodies that were similar or greater than those found in patients who recovered. That would suggest, but doesn’t prove, that it triggers some level of immunity”.

Earlier Examples –
He Was a Science Star. Then He Promoted a Questionable Cure for Covid-19.
The Politics of Hydroxychloroquine

Interview: Reinhart and Rogoff

Red States versus Blue States: Relative Economic Performance and Fiscal Policy Issues

Republican-dominated states lag in growth and debt performance.

‘Blue state bailouts’? Some states like New York send billions more to federal government than they get back
“The biggest givers in our latest report, based on 2018 data, were New York, which paid in US$35 billion more than it received; New Jersey, which paid $21 billion more; Massachusetts, which paid $16 billion more; and Connecticut, which paid $14 billion more than it received.
Combined, these states paid over $50 billion more in taxes than they received in federal spending”. 


Trump’s leadership failure makes a feeble economy and resurgent virus more likely

Sunday, May 17, 2020

The Future of Work, Office Design, and Urban Living

Useful History Lessons

Where are Stocks Headed?

Options Market Signals a Dire Picture for Stocks

Have the Record Number of Investors in the Stock Market Lost Their Minds?

When Warren Buffett Sours on Goldman Sachs, Time to Worry
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-15/warren-buffett-sours-on-goldman-sachs-time-to-worry

The S&P 500 Was Stopped in Its Tracks Last Week. Here’s Why Another Drop Could Be in the Offing.

Saturday, May 16, 2020

Covid-19 Exposes the Decline of US State Capacity

Inside Trump’s coronavirus meltdown [FREE TO READ ARTICLE]
What went wrong in the president’s first real crisis — and what does it mean for the US?

Crisis exposes how U.S. has hollowed out its government

Related:

Revamping Indo-Pacific Alliances