Attention Economy


Sunday, January 31, 2021

Saturday, January 30, 2021

UAE’s Smart Move

The GameStop Saga - Market Implications

The Complicated Economics of Higher Education

The Heavy Cost of an Empty Campus by Karin Fischer and Lindsay Ellis
https://www.chronicle.com/article/the-specter-of-semesters-past
 
Related: 
Is there an economic case for saving regional public universities and mid-tier private colleges?
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/527722-is-there-an-economic-case-for-saving-regional-public-universities-and-mid
The COVID-19 shock may fundamentally alter the economics of private colleges
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/509101-the-covid-19-shock-may-fundamentally-alter-the-economics-of-private

Friday, January 29, 2021

Instacart – A Pandemic Success Story

Wealth Gap in the US

Low U.S. Rates Exacerbate Racial Wealth Gap, Paper Shows
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-29/low-u-s-rates-exacerbate-racial-wealth-gap-paper-shows
 
Who Owns Stocks? Explaining the Rise in Inequality During the Pandemic
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/26/upshot/stocks-pandemic-inequality.html 

The Pandemic Shock – Similar to a Natural Disaster?

Tail Risk Facing Bitcoin Investors


My take:

Economic Recovery Has a Child-Care Problem

Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Amateurs versus Pros - Reddit Users versus Wall Street

UPDATES:
The GameStop Reckoning Was a Long Time Coming
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/technology/gamestop-stock.html
GameStop’s Reddit Revolution Echoes Occupy Wall Street Crusade

GameStop, AMC shares surge after Reddit users lead chaotic revolt against big Wall Street funds
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/01/27/gamestop-amc-reddit-short-sellers-wallstreetbets/ 
GameStop’s Wild Rise Drives Short Sellers to Throw in the Towel

Education and the Labor Market

The economy is getting even worse for Americans with high school degrees or less education
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/01/27/economy-is-getting-even-worse-americans-with-high-school-degrees-or-less-education/ 

High-Yielding Stocks in a Low Interest Rate Environment

Choice of College Major and Lifetime Earnings


America needs more women and minorities to major in Economics:
Kamala Harris Is Good for the Economics Profession
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-26/kamala-harris-is-good-for-the-economics-profession

In the US, many elite universities (e.g., Harvard) do not offer undergraduate business degrees, and, consequently, economics is a popular choice for a major:
The 3 most popular majors at every Ivy League school
https://www.businessinsider.com/most-popular-ivy-league-major-2017-4
Profile of Cornell’s Dyson School:
https://poetsandquantsforundergrads.com/school-profile/cornell-universitys-dyson-school/
“The Dyson Cornell SC Johnson College of Business and the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania are the only two undergrad business programs of all seven Ivy League schools. And they are the most selective schools in the United States, with only 7.1% of applicants gaining admission to Wharton and an astoundingly low 2.93% getting the nod from the gatekeepers at Cornell…What does that curriculum entail? “We are heavily quantitative applied economics- and science-driven because of our heritage,” Wooten says. “So throughout the four-year experience, much of the curriculum is similar to what you would see in other business schools, but our distinction is smaller classes, the high-touch, and our students have to take a lot of science classes and math classes to go with the general business classes.””

An aside: 
Since there are so many undergraduate economics majors coming out of top universities, admission to elite economics grad school programs is highly competitive. Additionally, many prestigious positions available to economics majors (e.g. Research Associate Programs at the Federal Reserve) often receive applications from a large number of undergrads from elite universities.

---
EMPIRICAL STUDIES:
Will Studying Economics Make You Rich? A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of the Returns to College Major
http://zacharybleemer.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Return_to_Economics.pdf
  
A Cross-Cohort Analysis of Human Capital Specialization and the College Gender Wage Gap
https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_WP_2019121_Revised.pdf 
 
Field of Study in College and Lifetime Earnings in the United States
Kim, C., Tamborini, C. R., & Sakamoto, A. (2015). Field of Study in College and Lifetime Earnings in the United States. Sociology of Education, 88(4), 320–339. http://doi.org/10.1177/0038040715602132
PDF Link:
https://kuscholarworks.ku.edu/bitstream/handle/1808/23238/AFD_Kim_SociolEduc_2015.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y 

Crony Capitalism is Hurting America

Made in the U.S.A.: Socialism for the Rich. Capitalism for the Rest.

GameStop Is Rage Against the Financial Machine
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-27/gamestop-short-squeeze-is-rage-against-the-financial-machine
John Authers notes:
“Instead of greed, this latest bout of speculation, and especially the extraordinary excitement at GameStop, has a different emotional driver: anger. The people investing today are driven by righteous anger, about generational injustice, about what they see as the corruption and unfairness of the way banks were bailed out in 2008 without having to pay legal penalties later, and about lacerating poverty and inequality. This makes it unlike any of the speculative rallies and crashes that have preceded it”.

Philadelphia let ‘college kids’ distribute vaccines. The result was a ‘disaster,’ volunteers say.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/27/philly-fighting-covid-vaccine/
“Philadelphia is home to some of the most venerated medical institutions in the country. Yet when it came time to set up the city’s first and largest coronavirus mass vaccination site, officials turned to the start-up Philly Fighting COVID, a self-described “group of college kids” with minimal health-care experience.
Chaos ensued.
Seniors were left in tears after finding that appointments they’d made through a bungled sign-up form wouldn’t be honored. The group switched to a for-profit model without publicizing the change and added a privacy policy that would allow it to sell users’ personal data. One volunteer alleged that the 22-year-old CEO had pocketed vaccine doses. Another described a “free-for-all” where unsupervised 18- and 19-year-olds vaccinated one another and posed for photos”.

My take:
To make capitalism more attractive, policymakers must emphasize pro-market (not pro-business) policies
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/513956-to-make-capitalism-more-attractive-policymakers-must-emphasize-pro-market-not
The debate should be about the quality – not the size – of government
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/513007-the-debate-should-be-about-the-quality-not-size-of-government


The Great Reversal: How America Gave Up on Free Markets

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

The Need for More Targeted Stimulus Measures

Cutting off stimulus checks to Americans earning over $75,000 could be wise, new data suggests
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/01/26/spending-stimulus-checks/
 
Related:
Saved Stimulus Checks Expected to Help Spur Economic Recovery
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saved-stimulus-checks-expected-to-help-spur-economic-recovery-11611657001

IMF's World Economic Outlook

Stock Market Irrationality - The GameStop Saga

Monday, January 25, 2021

The Failure of Arab Spring

The Yellen-Powell Duo and US Economic Policy

Yellen Passed the Economic Stability Baton to Powell. Now, He’s Handing It Back.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/yellen-passed-the-economic-stability-baton-to-powell-now-hes-handing-it-back-11611570600 

Related:

‘Zombie Companies’ - A Potential Problem for Europe

Europe’s Bankruptcies Are Plummeting. That May Be a Problem.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/business/Europe-bankruptcies.html
Governments have extended national programs to keep troubled businesses afloat, but the aid may only be postponing a painful reckoning. 

Dealing with the China Threat


Xi Jinping hasn’t just cracked down on private business—he is targeting individual entrepreneurs themselves.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/01/china-xi-jinping-business-entrepreneurs/617777/

US and China lock horns over Taiwan in first week of Biden era
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/US-and-China-lock-horns-over-Taiwan-in-first-week-of-Biden-era
 
How China Took Western Tech Firms Hostage
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/19/china-huawei-western-tech-hostages-national-firms/
 
U.S. China Policy Must Confront the Genocide in Xinjiang First
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/21/uighur-genocide-china-policy-biden-confront/ 

Sunday, January 24, 2021

Future of Globalization


MUST WATCH – The Globotics Upheaval [RICHARD BALDWIN Talk]



Insights from Economist J.K. Galbraith

John Kenneth Galbraith was an intellectual celebrity 50 years ago—and it would be a mistake to ignore him today.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/15/forgotten-prophet-john-kenneth-galbraith-united-states-pandemic-economy/
“American living standards thrived in part thanks to the strong dollar, restored in 1981 by high interest rates and maintained ever since by the financial power of the country, which delivered high real purchasing power for many consumer goods. In the United States, basic foods are cheap, oil is cheap, and imported clothing and electronics are cheap. Health care, housing, and college are expensive in the United States—but easy access to debt has bridged those gaps, however perilously, for many millions of Americans.
And jobs in America have tended to be plentiful in recent decades—which has absolutely not always been the case in Europe. Why? Because an economy that imports many of its own consumer goods has compensated by offering increasingly rich and lavish services, becoming a vast web of cooks, waiters, bartenders, baristas, trainers, coaches, massage therapists, tattoo artists, hair stylists, nail technicians, salespeople, musicians, and entertainers, as well as office workers. Compared with white-collar professions, these jobs are not well paid, but they have been fairly easy to get while they lasted. Meanwhile, a small number of U.S. high-tech firms have dominated a small number of important global markets, and it is mainly there and in finance that the truly stratospheric incomes and great fortunes are to be found”. 

Economic Challenges Facing Russia

 

Saturday, January 23, 2021

Hypocrisy Surrounding the US Public Debt Debate

The Pandemic Shock - Rich versus Poor Countries


Virus Mutations

East Asia's Response to the Covid Pandemic


How Singapore Has Kept the Coronavirus Off Campus
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/09/world/asia/singapore-coronavirus-universities.html
Singapore’s three major universities have reported zero cases. Their secret: technology, tough penalties and students willing to comply. 

Taiwan - A Highly Innovative and Well-Managed State
https://www.npr.org/2020/12/23/949764249/fork-the-government
“As countries around the world struggle to handle the coronavirus pandemic, Taiwan stands out as a relative success story... so far. Since April, only one locally transmitted case has been reported. There have been only seven deaths — in the entire country”.


DOES CULTURE MATTER?
Experts say pandemic reactions highlight US-Asia culture gap
“"A society like the U.S. is really not prepared to come together collectively and prioritize the collective good over the rights of the individual," Kanter continued. "We're just not built for this."
Kanter said more collectivist cultures, including Asian ones, appear to be better at handling a pandemic. He cited a 2008 study published by London's Royal Society that suggested dealing with past disease outbreaks may have helped shape collectivist cultures in the first place.”

Pathogen prevalence predicts human cross-cultural variability in individualism/collectivism
Abstract
Pathogenic diseases impose selection pressures on the social behaviour of host populations. In humans (Homo sapiens), many psychological phenomena appear to serve an antipathogen defence function. One broad implication is the existence of cross-cultural differences in human cognition and behaviour contingent upon the relative presence of pathogens in the local ecology. We focus specifically on one fundamental cultural variable: differences in individualistic versus collectivist values. We suggest that specific behavioural manifestations of collectivism (e.g. ethnocentrism, conformity) can inhibit the transmission of pathogens; and so we hypothesize that collectivism (compared with individualism) will more often characterize cultures in regions that have historically had higher prevalence of pathogens. Drawing on epidemiological data and the findings of worldwide cross-national surveys of individualism/collectivism, our results support this hypothesis: the regional prevalence of pathogens has a strong positive correlation with cultural indicators of collectivism and a strong negative correlation with individualism. The correlations remain significant even when controlling for potential confounding variables. These results help to explain the origin of a paradigmatic cross-cultural difference, and reveal previously undocumented consequences of pathogenic diseases on the variable nature of human societies. 

An Epic Cricket Series

Friday, January 22, 2021

Should Teachers be Prioritized for Vaccination?

It’s time to vaccinate teachers – and start planning a great school reopening
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/it-s-time-to-vaccinate-teachers---and-start-planning-a-great-school-reopening
“The power of teachers - a skill that no computer can replicate - is to encourage, embolden and motivate pupils who are disinclined to learn. The phrase "hard to reach" is too often, in politics, used as code to give up on large sections of society. It is the "hard-to-reach" pupils who will have fallen furthest behind in lockdown. They will need active, imaginative, energetic help: laying on a few more optional lessons will not be enough”. 

Asset Markets - Fundamentals versus Speculation



Precautionary Saving in the Real World

Thursday, January 21, 2021

The Case for Efficiency Wages

The Case for Higher Wages in Hard Times

Reforming US Corporate Tax Structure

A good suggestion:
A Biden Tax-Hike Break for Small Businesses
Congress should raise the top corporate rate to 28%, but only for the most profitable companies.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-biden-tax-hike-break-for-small-businesses-11611167181 

Reforming US Unemployment Insurance System

How the American Unemployment System Failed
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/21/business/economy/unemployment-insurance.html
 
Related research:
DO UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE BENEFITS IMPROVE MATCH QUALITY? EVIDENCE FROM RECENT U.S. RECESSIONS [NBER Working Paper No. 27574]
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27574/w27574.pdf
ABSTRACT
We present new evidence on the impact of more generous unemployment insurance (UI) on workers’ ability to find jobs better suited to their skills. Using Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data, we find the UI extensions introduced in the U.S. improved the quality of worker- job matches. Using Current Population Survey data, we also find that longer UI benefit durations decrease the mismatch between workers’ educational attainments and the educational requirements of jobs. We find bigger effects of UI on match quality for those more likely to be liquidity-constrained women, non-whites and less-educated workers-,suggesting UI extensions improve the functioning of the labor market.
-------------------------------
Unemployment Insurance Generosity and Aggregate Employment [AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL: ECONOMIC POLICY (FORTHCOMING)]
ABSTRACT
This paper examines the impact of unemployment insurance (UI) on aggregate employment by exploiting cross-state variation in the maximum benefit duration during the Great Recession. Comparing adjacent counties located in neighboring states, there is no statistically significant impact of increasing UI generosity on aggregate employment. Point estimates are uniformly small in magnitude, and the most precise estimates rule out employment-to-population ratio reductions in excess of 0.35 percentage points from the UI extension. The results contrast with the negative effects implied by most micro-level labor supply studies and are consistent with both job rationing and aggregate demand channels. 

Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Bitcoin's Ups and Downs



Good News on Herd Immunity

Herd Immunity Could Be Closer Than We Think
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-20/the-covid-19-vaccination-campaign-should-emphasize-optimism
“There is some encouraging data on herd immunity from the clinical trials of two leading vaccines, says infectious disease doctor Monica Gandhi of the University of California, San Francisco. While the three leading vaccines have proven extremely effective at preventing symptomatic illness, two showed some hints that they limited transmission of the virus as well”. 

Related:
The coronavirus variants could dash our hopes of getting back to normal. We must prepare.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/01/20/coronavirus-variants-could-dash-our-hopes-getting-back-normal-we-must-prepare/

President Biden's Domestic and Foreign Policy Priorities

Joe Biden is officially president. Here’s what he wants to do in office.
https://www.vox.com/22237275/joe-biden-inauguration-policy-build-back-better

Biden Should Go Big, Fast, and Simple
The new president must not repeat Obama's mistakes.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/01/biden-go-big/617737/
 
The Biden doctrine is still taking shape
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/01/20/what-is-biden-foreign-policy-doctrine/
 
Five Drivers of Markets in a Biden Administration
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-20/five-drivers-of-markets-in-a-biden-administration
The reasons to be bullish on stocks continue to mount.

Time to Repair and Restore US Institutions

The Stimulus and Long-Term Debt Burden Debate


Related:

Monday, January 18, 2021

A Global Problem - Lack of Good Jobs

China’s College Graduates Can’t Find Jobs. The Solution: Grad School.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/18/business/china-graduate-school-white-collar.html
The government is expanding university capacity, but some young people worry that the option will only postpone a crisis stemming from a shortage of well-paying work.

Key Macroeconomic Issues Facing US


An Actual V-Shaped Recovery

Sunday, January 17, 2021

Has the Pandemic Worsened Inequality?


Related:

Markets in Everything – An Unsavory Example

Prospect of Pardons in Final Days Fuels Market to Buy Access to Trump
The president’s allies have collected tens of thousands of dollars — and potentially much more — from people seeking pardons.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/17/us/politics/trump-pardons.html 

Threat Posed by Big Tech and Social Media

When companies dominate our communications infrastructure, their decisions are no longer “private.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/01/14/trump-twitter-ban-big-tech-monopoly-private/
 
Social-Media Algorithms Rule How We See the World. Good Luck Trying to Stop Them.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-media-algorithms-rule-how-we-see-the-world-good-luck-trying-to-stop-them-11610884800 

The Asian Century Hypothesis



Saturday, January 16, 2021

Debate Surrounding Inflation Risk

Covid Myths Debunked with Data

Does the Age of the Equity Bull Market Matter?

A ‘Very Young’ Bull Market in Stocks Is Still Minting Believers by By Lu Wang
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-16/a-very-young-bull-market-in-stocks-is-still-minting-believers

Jim Simons - A Quant Legend

Jim Simons Proved the Textbooks Wrong — Almost
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-16/investing-legend-james-simons-s-record-won-t-be-beat
 
Related:
Jim Simons Reveals Clues to Medallion Fund's Unrivaled Run
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-07/jim-simons-reveals-clues-to-medallion-fund-s-long-unrivaled-run
“At the core of the company, which employs about 300 people, is a great computing system, good scientists and low turnover, he said. Employees, who get a piece of the profits, sign non-disclosure agreements when they are hired and non-compete contracts after a couple of years on the job.
“It’s fun to work there,” Simons said in a question and answer format led by MIT professor Andrew Lo, who started the quant fund AlphaSimplex Group. “People get paid a lot of money.””
 
How Jim Simons Built the World’s Most Lucrative Black Box
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-01/how-jim-simons-built-the-world-s-most-lucrative-black-box
 
A great read [highly recommended]: Jim Simons, the Numbers King
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/12/18/jim-simons-the-numbers-king 



Friday, January 15, 2021

Economic Impact of the Latest Round of Lockdowns

What is the economic impact of the latest round of lockdowns?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/01/13/what-is-the-economic-impact-of-the-latest-round-of-lockdowns
The rich world has become better at mitigating their economic cost 

Profile of Mike Herron

Profile of British Author, Mike Herron:
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/jan/15/mick-herron-i-look-at-jackson-lamb-and-think-my-god-did-i-write-that-my-mother-reads-this-stuff

Slough House Series
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/series/OHN/slough-house

Bidenomics


Reforming US Higher Education

Tech - India versus China

Bengaluru Is the New Shenzhen as Apps Displace Devices
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/12/india-china-technology-apps-internet-economy/
In the global internet economy, India’s tech industry has a leg up on China’s. 

Political Stability Matters


Hypocrisy has long been a component of U.S. foreign policy. The Capitol riot doesn’t change that.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/14/hypocrisy-democracy-united-states-foreign-policy-capitol-riot/ 

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Investing in Bitcoin - Unusual Risk

Bitcoin owners are getting rich because the cryptocurrency has soared. But what happens when you can’t access that wealth because you forgot the password to your digital wallet?
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/technology/bitcoin-passwords-wallets-fortunes.html 

The Way We Work

Politics and the Macroeconomy

Who Won the US-China Trade War?

How China Won Trump’s Trade War and Got Americans to Foot the Bill
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-11/how-china-won-trump-s-good-and-easy-to-win-trade-war 

America’s Global Standing

Sunday, January 10, 2021

Epicureans versus Stoics

Why Epicureanism, not Stoicism, is the philosophy we need now
https://www.newstatesman.com/international/2021/01/why-epicureanism-not-stoicism-philosophy-we-need-now
CATHERINE WILSON notes:
“Epicureans contend that mortality has to be faced without futile struggles, protests or wails of tragedy. Meanwhile, the joy, not only of the philosopher, but of all of us, is to be found in experience, including the experience of coming to understand how nature and society actually work. Death puts an end to these pleasures, but, as the Epicureans were fond of pointing out, we will not be around to experience the deprivation”. 

Stock Market Bubble?

Singapore Does it Better

How Singapore Has Kept the Coronavirus Off Campus
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/09/world/asia/singapore-coronavirus-universities.html
Singapore’s three major universities have reported zero cases. Their secret: technology, tough penalties and students willing to comply. 

Meanwhile, in America:
As the Pandemic Worsens, Colleges Prepare to Test Their Spring Plans
https://www.chronicle.com/article/as-the-pandemic-worsens-colleges-prepare-to-test-their-spring-plans

US Economic and Financial Outlook - 2021

The Markets’ Strange Disregard for the Chaos in Washington
Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-investment-outlooks/
The stock market is ending 2020 in record territory, even as virus surges and millions go hungry
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/12/31/stock-market-record-2020/
Why Markets Boomed in a Year of Human Misery

The December Numbers Were Awful, but the Economy Has a Clear Path to Health
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/upshot/jobs-report-economy-analysis.html
Are the increasingly upbeat economic forecasts for 2021 warranted?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/532374-are-the-increasingly-upbeat-economic-forecasts-for-2021-warranted 
A Divided Economy