Attention Economy


Thursday, June 30, 2022

College Education – A Mass Product?

University education, intelligence, and disadvantage: Policy lessons from the UK, 1960–2004
https://voxeu.org/article/university-education-intelligence-and-disadvantage
Access to university has expanded significantly in the US and Europe over the last five decades, and plans for further growth figure prominently on many policy agendas. This column examines the enlargement of post-secondary education in the UK after 1970. The authors argue that expanding university access corresponded with a decline in both the average intelligence of graduates and the wage premium across cohorts. Those who benefited from the expansion were primarily less-intelligent students from advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds, not the high-ability students from disadvantaged backgrounds the policy was designed to reach.
 
Why Have College Completion Rates Increased?
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20200525
We document that college completion rates have increased since the 1990s, after declining in the 1970s and 1980s. We find that most of the increase in graduation rates can be explained by grade inflation and that other factors, such as changing student characteristics and institutional resources, play little or no role. This is because GPA strongly predicts graduation, and GPAs have been rising since the 1990s. This finding holds in national survey data and in records from nine large public universities. We also find that at a public liberal arts college grades increased, holding performance on identical exams fixed.
 
We should admit that not all students have the talent to flourish in college.
https://www.chronicle.com/article/some-students-are-smarter-than-others-and-thats-ok
 
My take:
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/590971-will-the-us-higher-education-bubble-finally-burst/ 

Economic Challenges Facing UK

Britain is fed up, bitter, and practically broke – and it’s all going to get worse
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/06/29/britain-fed-bitter-practically-broke-going-get-worse/
 
Household incomes suffer longest fall on record – and worse is to come
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/30/household-incomes-suffer-longest-fall-record-worse-come/ 

Wednesday, June 29, 2022

Economic Value of Business Degrees

Ranking the Economic Value of 5,500 Business Programs at More Than 1,700 Colleges
https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/business/ 

The New York to Florida Exodus

The Flight of New York City’s Wealthy Was a Once-in-a-Century Shock
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/28/nyregion/wealthy-pandemic-nyc.html
The exodus to Florida was especially robust, and not just for the retiree crowd. In 2020, New York City had a net loss of nearly 21,000 residents to Florida, IRS data showed, almost double the average annual net loss from before the pandemic.
The pandemic accelerated the relocation of several New York-based financial firms to new offices or headquarters in Florida. 

The Art of Economic Data Collection

National Sample Survey: How India taught the world the art of collecting data
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-61870699 

Pandemic-Induced Boom in Rural Areas

WSJ on Insider Trading

The Routine Executive Stock Sales That Raise Questions of Insider Trading
https://www.wsj.com/articles/executive-stock-sales-questions-insider-trading-11656514551 

Tuesday, June 28, 2022

America's Got Problems


America Is Growing Apart, Possibly for Good
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/06/red-and-blue-state-divide-is-growing-michael-podhorzer-newsletter/661377/
 
The Constitution Is Whatever the Right Wing Says It Is
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/roe-overturned-supreme-court-samuel-alito-opinion/661386/ 
 
Outdated America is intent on setting itself back as far as possible
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2022/06/27/outdated-america-intent-setting-back-far-possible/
America’s problems somehow always track back to its Constitution, and the rigidity with which it is applied to contemporary life. Instead of looking to freshen up its centuries-old rulebook, like the vast majority of other countries worldwide, it seems to be taking the reverse course – with dangerous results”


The Liberals Who Won’t Acknowledge the Crime Problem
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/us-city-violent-crime-rate-perception/661337/
Crime is also a proxy for a deeper malaise, that inchoate sense of almost-but-not-quite social collapse that’s in the air we breathe, impossible to measure with precision but unmistakably palpable all the same. The malaise draws on our own confusion, driven by the intuition that things aren’t as they should be. Burglaries and homicides are not the only signs that something is amiss. The tent encampments that have spread across our nation’s capital over the past two years suggest that something has gone very, very wrong. This is the most powerful city in the world, and yet people are living in makeshift tents in its richest neighborhoods, a stone’s throw from the White House and Capitol Hill. 

The Real Problem with Tech

Tech Doesn’t Have a Free Speech Problem. It Has a Know-It-All Problem.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/28/opinion/kraken-powell-tech-culture-libertarianism.html 

Reforming US Capitalism

Even My Business-School Students Have Doubts About Capitalism by Glenn Hubbard
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/01/mba-students-against-capitalism/621117/
Related:
https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2021/11/have-i-got-a-bridge-to-sell-you-the-limitations-of-econ-101/

My take: To make capitalism more attractive, policymakers must emphasize pro-market (not pro-business) policies


 

Monday, June 27, 2022

UK Debates the Value of a Degree in English Literature

University drops English literature course 'because graduates struggle to get highly paid jobs'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/26/english-literature-course-suspended-university-poor-job-return/
 
Philip Pullman leads outcry after Sheffield Hallam withdraws English lit degree
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/jun/27/sheffield-hallam-university-suspends-low-value-english-literature-degree 

DeSantis – The Next US President?

Can Ron DeSantis Displace Donald Trump as the G.O.P.’s Combatant-in-Chief?
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/06/27/can-ron-desantis-displace-donald-trump-as-the-gops-combatant-in-chief 

Greenflation

China and Hong Kong

Can Central Banks Restore Credibility?


The Wrong Sort of Education Spending

Schools Are Spending Billions on High-Tech Defense for Mass Shootings
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/26/business/school-safety-technology.html 

Friday, June 24, 2022

Media Mentions

The Fed and Oil: Will Heavy Rate Hikes Make the Sell-off Stick? Just Maybe [Investing.com]
https://www.investing.com/analysis/the-fed-and-oil-will-heavy-rate-hikes-make-the-selloff-stick-just-maybe-200626238
There are signs that consumer strength could be severely tested later this year, cautions Vivekanand Jayakumar, associate professor of economics at the University of Tampa. 
“If household spending starts to buckle in the second half of 2022, the consequences for the broader economy will be enormous,” Jayakumar said in an op-ed that appeared earlier this month on The Hill, adding:
“In fact, if this most significant of all economic engines were to stall, the prospect for a US recession in 2023 will rise sharply.”
 
Will EU’s hawks kill off free trade with Asia? [Asia Times]
https://asiatimes.com/2022/04/will-eus-hawks-kill-off-free-trade-with-asia/
Vivekanand Jayakumar, an associate professor of economics at the University of Tampa, argued last month: “Following the peak of the recent globalization wave, we are now entering the de-globalization phase.”
 
Weaponisation’ to undermine dollar’s status as reserve currency [Khaleej Times]
https://www.zawya.com/en/special-coverage/russia-ukraine-crisis/weaponisation-to-undermine-dollars-status-as-reserve-currency-xybkge21
“Given the emergence of the China-Russia alliance, and, considering China’s continuing rise as an economic and military power, we cannot underestimate the future risk to the dollar’s global status. Strengthening US alliances with emerging powers (like India and Brazil) and establishing closer ties with the African continent will be essential for the West as we enter a new era of geopolitical competition,” argues Vivekanand Jayakumar, an associate professor of economics at the University of Tampa. 

Painful as it may be, pandemic wage and business subsidies will eventually stop [CBC News]
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jobs-business-subsidies-column-don-pittis-1.6129604
A flood of fiscal stimulus and low interest rates is already causing dangerous distortions in the economy that could lead to a combination of slow growth and high inflation, warned U.S. economist Vivekanand Jayakumar, writing this week for the political website The Hill.
"Additional stimulus risks tipping the U.S. into a stagflationary trap, characterized by a slowdown in growth (driven by constrained supply) and surging price levels," said Jayakumar.
 
THE CURIOUS CASE OF LOW BOND YIELDS [International Banker]
https://internationalbanker.com/brokerage/the-curious-case-of-low-bond-yields/
“The ongoing build-up in pricing pressure is likely to persist into 2022 and beyond as widespread supply constraints crimp productive capacity worldwide even as global demand remains robust,” Vivekanand Jayakumar, associate professor of economics at the University of Tampa, recently opined in The Hill. “Furthermore, many of the structural forces (globalization and the emergence of international supply chains centered around China; technological changes that led to the growth of e-commerce and increased price competition; and demographic shifts that saw a dramatic rise in the global working-age population) that kept a lid on inflation over the past three decades may now be starting to work in the opposite direction and leading us into an era of higher trend inflation.” 

Aggressive Monetary Tightening and Recession Risks

Will Aggressive Monetary Tightening Push the U.S. Economy into a Recession?
https://www.ut.edu/uploadedFiles/Academics/Business/Economics/TBE%20Summer%202022.pdf 

Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Global Supply Chains: India's Role

Geography and Natural Resources Matter

Russia’s exports to Eurasia are vast, so its resource power won’t be dented by sanctions imposed only by West.
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2022/06/whatever-moscows-military-defeats-in-ukraine-vladimir-putin-is-winning-the-energy-war 

End of the Housing Boom

America Faces a Housing Bust
https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-faces-a-housing-bust-11655826309
All ingredients seemed in place at 2022’s start for a continued housing boom, but now the market has priced itself for a sharp reversal
 
Real Estate Is the Crisis Risk to Watch Now
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-21/property-is-the-crisis-risk-to-watch-as-stocks-enter-bear-market

Importance of Apprenticeships

Apprenticeships, Not College, Can Help Reduce Unemployment
https://www.wsj.com/articles/apprenticeships-skills-college-unemployment-technical-training-workforce-development-11655829914
A flexible, industry-driven alternative for workforce education has a proven record of success.

US Economic Risks Mount

Military Spending Boom

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

Smart Data Analysis and DEI

Hawala versus DeFi

The Centuries-Old Financial System Better Than DeFi
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-20/defi-can-t-hold-a-candle-to-the-centuries-old-trust-based-system-called-hawala
Hawala is based on trust, while decentralized crypto lending is doomed by blockchain anonymity. 

The Western World's Climate Hypocrisy

The Rich World’s Climate Hypocrisy
They beg for more oil and coal for themselves while telling developing lands to rely on solar and wind.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-rich-worlds-climate-hypocrisy-energy-fossil-fuel-wind-solar-panel-india-poverty-power-battery-storage-11655654331

The West’s Poor Climate Track Record Is Spilling Over to Other Policy Areas
https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/05/23/west-s-poor-climate-track-record-is-spilling-over-to-other-policy-areas-pub-87174
Noah Gordon notes:
While the war in Ukraine should catalyze Europe’s energy transition in the medium term, Europe’s immediate response has been to prioritize energy security and price stability over the climate crisis. COP26 president Alok Sharma of the United Kingdom was moved to tears by his failure to persuade India and China to agree to phase out coal in the Glasgow Declaration, but the UK government is considering opening a new coal mine in 2022 on the dubious grounds that the coal could replace Russian oil and gas imports. Meanwhile, Europe’s scramble to buy up the global supply of liquified natural gas to replace Russian gas has left fuel-starved Pakistan and India with little choice but to burn more coal for air conditioning amid a record-breaking heatwave. The same wealthy Europeans who have been promising to remove fossil fuel subsidies since 2009 have shown little compunction about subsidizing oil and gas in 2022.

Sunday, June 19, 2022

Andaman and Nicobar Islands: Cops on a Diet

Declaring Curry and Samosas Enemy No. 1 to Whip the Police into Shape
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/18/world/asia/india-andaman-police-weight-loss.html

 

Tech Dystopia - Hollywood Portrayals

Minority Report Tried to Warn Us About Technology
https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2022/06/minority-report-spielberg-movie-tom-cruise/661274/
Steven Spielberg’s film predicted how having more convenience would mean sacrificing personal freedom. 

India Reorients its Military Purchases

India bolsters arms ties with West to sever Russian dependence
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/India-bolsters-arms-ties-with-West-to-sever-Russian-dependence
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Israeli defense companies to set up shop in India in a meeting with Israeli Defense Minister Benjamin Gantz this month. India and Israel have deepened cooperation on defense in recent years.
During Modi's tour of Europe last month, he and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed on more French involvement in India's campaign for greater self-reliance, including on "advanced defense technology."
In April, Modi and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson issued a statement outlining plans for the U.K. to provide technological assistance for India's new homegrown fighter jets.
 
Related:
https://www.economist.com/asia/2022/06/13/the-west-has-a-chance-to-wean-india-off-russian-weaponry 

Saturday, June 18, 2022

Interesting Interview: Priti Patel

The Demise of the Crypto Mania and the 'Everything Bubble'

Fuelled by hype and hysteria, the market in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies went from an obscure niche to a $3tn industry. Then the house of cards collapsed
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jul/12/they-couldnt-even-scream-any-more-they-were-just-sobbing-the-amateur-investors-ruined-by-the-crypto-crash

Bitcoin Plummets Below $20,000 for First Time Since Late 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/18/technology/bitcoin-20000.html
The crypto crash proves it – Bitcoin's libertarian dream is over
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/15/crypto-crash-proves-bitcoins-libertarian-dream/
Crypto Is Crashing. It Deserves to.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/06/crypto-is-crashing-it-deserves-to.html
When Crypto’s Own Hedge Fund Geniuses Failed
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-15/when-crypto-s-own-hedge-fund-geniuses-failed
Cryptocurrencies were supposed to teach traditional financiers a thing or two about how to avoid collapses and crises. Yet it feels like we’re simply repeating history. Specifically, the messy hedge-fund humiliation captured in “When Genius Failed.” 

The End of the Asset Economy
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/asset-economy-high-interest-rates-inflation/661323/
The Fed Pricked the Everything Bubble
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-pricked-the-everything-bubble-11655215752
The Everything Bubble Bursts
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/17/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-rana-foroohar.html
Masters of the Bubbleverse Secretive hedge fund Tiger Global changed the rules on tech investing. Then it all went bad.
The Clues You Missed: 5 Super-Obvious Signs We Were in a Financial Bubble
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/06/5-incredibly-obvious-market-top-signals-everyone-missed.html
 
My take from February 16, 2021:
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/538921-have-misguided-policies-led-to-recent-asset-bubbles-and-boom-bust-cycles/
In recent decades, a series of policy missteps have laid the groundwork for the recurrence of financial bubbles and boom-bust cycles. The modern American economy is characterized by cycles that involve rapid inflation of asset prices (that often result in a surge in private sector borrowing and a temporary spike in aggregate demand), followed by an inevitable collapse of asset values, which in turn is followed by ultra-loose monetary policy for an extended period that lays the groundwork for a follow-on asset bubble and a new boom-bust cycle.
Some recent policy actions undertaken to alleviate the effects of the pandemic shock, though well-intentioned, are misdirected and may lay the foundation for a new boom-bust cycle. A few micro-bubbles have already emerged, and there is broader concern about elevated asset values and the growing temptation to “reach for yield.”
 
My take from May 24, 2021:
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/554998-is-bitcoin-the-future-of-money/
If not the future of money, can we make a case for Bitcoin as digital gold? Proponents argue that since Bitcoin, by design, is limited to a maximum of 21 million units, it can act as a stable store of value. Given its short history and its intangible nature, it is unclear that Bitcoin offers a true alternative to traditional gold. Gold has a long history as a medium of exchange, and the yellow metal has impressive physical properties that have caused humans to value it highly for thousands of years. Even today, many societies widely use gold for jewelry and ceremonial purposes. Additionally, from a financial standpoint, Bitcoin is currently too correlated with risky assets to act as an effective inflation hedge.
At present, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies appear to primarily function as speculative assets whose fluctuating valuations may be driven by financial mania or a form of contagious narrative. Central bank liquidity injections, massive fiscal transfers, rise of a new generation of retail investors utilizing online platforms (like Reddit) to coordinate their actions and the emergence of zero-commission online trading platforms (like Robinhood) have created a speculative frenzy.
 
My take from September 5, 2021:
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/570895-the-debate-we-should-be-having-about-the-federal-reserve/
A third area of concern relates to financial distortions associated with the injection of excess liquidity via prolonged periods of quantitative easing by the Fed and other major central banks. Measures originally intended for financial emergencies are now being deployed by monetary authorities to achieve traditional macroeconomic goals. This in turn has caused financial markets to become addicted to a never-ending stream of easy money to sustain ever higher asset prices. Unsurprisingly, it has also encouraged speculative excesses. Unconventional Fed policies might unintentionally be contributing to a rise in inequality. 

Friday, June 17, 2022

Gauging Momentum in the Labor Market

US-Saudi Relationship is Complicated


Interesting: ABSOLUTE POWER
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/04/mohammed-bin-salman-saudi-arabia-palace-interview/622822/
Instead of hunting for sin and punishing it as a matter of course, MBS has curtailed the investigative function of the religious police, and encourages sinners to keep their transgressions between themselves and God….
It is hard to exaggerate how drastically this sidelining of Islamic law will change Saudi Arabia. Before MBS, influential clerics issued fatwas exhibiting what might charitably be called a pre-industrial view of the world. 

Costly Monetary Policy Errors

My take: Where the Fed went wrong
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3527213-where-the-fed-went-wrong/
In light of repeated forecasting errors, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have been forced to frequently revise their economic projections and to radically alter their forward guidance in recent months. Importantly, monetary policy missteps were a major contributor to the emergence of a once-in-a-generation inflation shock. Consequently, the Fed has lost some credibility.
Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in May, Chairman Jerome Powell offered a clear signal that 50-basis point rate hikes should be penciled in for June and July. Yet, following a jump in consumer inflation expectations and a spike in the Consumer Price Index-based inflation rate last week, the Fed was forced to hike its policy rate by 75-basis points on June 15.
Even more awkwardly, the June 2022 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates that Fed officials have had to radically overhaul their forecasts from just three short months ago (and the March 2022 SEP itself reflected a sharp change from the December 2022 SEP). The extent of the ongoing shift in the Fed’s outlook is revealed by the fact that the median forecast in the September 2021 SEP called for just a single 25-basis point rate hike for all of 2022.
Given its stunningly poor forecasting record, the Fed needs to fundamentally rethink its approach and undertake some serious soul-searching regarding the causes of its failure. Sadly, the following quote may actually reflect the reality in economic circles: “An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.”
Developing and calibrating fanciful mathematical and statistical models to generate point estimates (that are invariably wrong) should not be the primary focus of macro analysis at central banks. In real-world policymaking, it is often better to be roughly right than precisely wrong. The Fed should hire economists with differing viewpoints and approaches and encourage open debate to avoid groupthink. 


Thursday, June 16, 2022

India-Born CEOs and Business Leaders

 

A Singular Population: Indian Immigrants in America
https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/chazen-global-insights/singular-population-indian-immigrants-america
 
MIT Study Explains Why American Business Leaders Are More Likely to Be Indian Than Chinese
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mit-study-explains-why-american-business-leaders-are-more-likely-to-be-indian-than-chinese-2020-02-20
 
Indian v Chinese bosses in America Inc
https://www.economist.com/business/2020/02/29/indian-v-chinese-bosses-in-america-inc 

State of Political Leadership

Related:

The Growing Threat of Self-Censorship in the Academic World

The Chill on Campus
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/campus-free-speech-self-censorship/661282/
Yascha Mounk notes:
One of the things I most loved about college was the opportunity to debate important topics. A group of friends would congregate in someone’s room, drink cheap wine or beer, and have freewheeling discussions late into the night about the nature of love, the existence of God, or the desirability of socialism. None of us wanted to be either a sycophant or a devil’s advocate; we were genuinely trying to understand the world and what we thought about it. Though we took our debates seriously, we were able to speak without fear or hesitation. We knew that we all had permission to give an argument a clear run, try out a new position, even adopt provocative stances if that was where our reasoning led us in the moment. It never crossed our mind that something we might say would result in losing friends or being socially shunned. On the few occasions when an argument got too heated, an apology the next day would make things right. It saddens me that many students in college today will not have a chance to enjoy that experience.
 
Related:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/15/cambridge-succumbing-woke-virus/ 

Tuesday, June 14, 2022

Profile of Economist Melissa Dell


Related:

A 75-Basis Point Rate Hike is Almost Certain

Bloomberg’s John Authers notes:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-14/the-fed-has-no-choice-but-to-let-this-bond-market-tantrum-rip
It’s probably best to try reading the New York Times, Bloomberg News, Axios or the Wall Street Journal, all of which published stories about the likelihood of a 75-basis-point hike as the afternoon progressed. None of these stories feature any on-the-record comments from Fed officials since the inflation data came out in Friday. However, they are all framed the same way, and lead the reader through the same comments made before the quiet period that had given the Fed some wiggle room to raise by more than 50 basis points. We can assume that this was a coordinated attempt to guide the market through trusted journalists, while just about staying in purdah. This is one of those times when you can believe what you read in the papers — the Fed has now set everyone up for a 75-basis-point hike on Wednesday. Anything else would be a huge surprise. The story, breaking first in the Wall Street Journal, arrived in time to accelerate what were already dramatic market moves”.
 
Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/14/business/economy/federal-reserve-rates-economy.html 

The Best Restaurant in the US


An Indian Restaurant’s Rise Mirrors Asheville’s
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-16/chai-pani-asheville-what-james-beard-s-best-restaurant-says-about-the-us
The winner of a coveted restaurant prize says a lot about America's changing tastes.

The Inflation Crisis - Politics and Economics



How the Fed and the Biden Administration Got Inflation Wrong
https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-economy-federal-reserve-11655134682


Higher Unemployment Rate Looms as the Fed Fights Inflation
https://www.wsj.com/articles/higher-unemployment-rate-looms-as-the-fed-fights-inflation-11655112600 
 
Centrist Democrats are pushing smart — if politically risky — anti-inflation ideas
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/12/new-democrats-inflation-plan-smart-but-politically-risky/ 

Monday, June 13, 2022

Tech Monopolies


My take from 2020: Big Tech and the antitrust debate

Equity Bear Markets - Historical Perspective

What Happens When Stock Markets Become Bears
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/13/business/bear-market-timeline-stocks.html
Bear markets — when stocks decline at least 20 percent from their recent peaks — are relatively rare, and they frequently precede a recession. This sell-off, dragging the S&P down from a peak on Jan. 3 (which reflects the new bear market’s starting point), comes as concerns mount over high inflation, the war in Ukraine, Covid and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to rein in the economy. 

Dr. Mung Chiang - Purdue University's Next President


After a Decade, Purdue’s Mitch Daniels Calls It Quits
https://www.chronicle.com/article/after-a-decade-purdues-mitch-daniels-calls-it-quits 

My favorite Mitch Daniels piece:
Purdue University President Mitch Daniels:
“The challenge for today’s college admissions officer is like the one faced by corporate recruiters: In an era of rampant grade inflation, which grades can you believe? Businesses began learning years ago not to put much stock in diplomas from schools where the average graduate’s GPA is 3.5 or higher and may not be at all indicative of real learning or readiness for the modern workplace...
Many problems brought to our counselors are of social origin — loneliness, cyberbullying, just plain homesickness — but many others stem from academic anxiety, and small wonder. Freshmen who rarely saw a B during their K-12 years can be severely jolted when handed back a paper marked C. Too many participation trophies when growing up is lousy preparation for life at a reasonably rigorous university, let alone in the real world beyond.

Authenticity

The Scam of Authenticity
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-06-13/the-authenticity-trap-being-yourself-at-work-has-downsides
Consumers, voters and employees all want “something real.” But what does that mean — and is it even desirable? 

The Oil Price Shock


My take from March 8, 2022:
Does the spike in oil prices presage an economic downturn?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/597311-does-the-spike-in-oil-prices-presage-an-economic-downturn/

Sunday, June 12, 2022

Dangers of Identity Politics

Islamic fundamentalists are using woke tactics to crush free speech
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/11/islamic-fundamentalists-using-woke-tactics-crush-free-speech/
 
Francis Fukuyama (2018):
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2018/09/18/identity-politics/
More broadly, nationalism and politicized religious movements like Islamism are also based on offended dignity. Russia was humiliated by NATO moving east during a period of weakness. China is recovering from its “hundred years of humiliation.” And fighters for the Islamic State believe that they are winning back the dignity of repressed and abused Muslims around the world. All of these movements are obviously willing to sacrifice material interests for the sake of the recovery of group dignity.
 
Against Identity Politics: The New Tribalism and the Crisis of Democracy
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/americas/2018-08-14/against-identity-politics-tribalism-francis-fukuyama 

Taiwan Straits - Growing Fears of a Military Conflict

Friday, June 10, 2022

Central Banks and Interest Rates

Emotions

The Age of Emotional Overstatement
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-age-of-emotional-overstatement-11654874678
From social media to job applications, the pressure to declare our feelings in public is turning us into gushing adolescents.
 
The Boiling Over of America
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-boiling-over-of-america-san-fransisco-crime-minority-voters-chesa-boudin-recalled-liberal-democrats-11654810568
The lesson of this political moment: Don’t be radical, don’t be extreme. Our country is a tea kettle on high flame, at full boil. Wherever possible let the steam out, be part of a steady steam release before the kettle blows. 

Critiques of Modern Academic Research in Economics

Why “feigned ignorance” is not good economics (or science generally)
https://lantpritchett.org/why-feigned-ignorance-is-not-good-economics-or-science-generally/  

Cochrane on the AEA and Direction of Economic Research
https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/06/aea-p-measure-of-organization.html

Why Economics Is Failing Us
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-05-24/why-economics-is-failing-us
Tyler Cowen notes:
Here’s the dirty little secret that few of my fellow economics professors will admit: As those “perfect” research papers have grown longer, they have also become less relevant. Fewer people — including academics — read them carefully or are influenced by them when it comes to policy.
Actual views on politics are more influenced by debates on social media, especially on such hot topics such as the minimum wage or monetary and fiscal policy
 

Purpose of Economic Research
Wise words from the winner of the 1981 Nobel Prize in Economics, James Tobin
“… economic knowledge advances when striking real-world events and issues pose puzzles we have to try to understand and resolve. The most important decisions a scholar makes are what problems to work on. Choosing them just by looking for gaps in the literature is often not very productive and it worst divorces the literature itself from problems that provide more important and productive lines of inquiry. The best economists have taken their subjects from the world around them.”

It's Time to End the Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine’s high casualty rate could bring war to tipping point
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/ukraine-casualty-rate-russia-war-tipping-point

Behind Nato’s defensive ‘shield’ lies weakness and division. Ukraine will pay the price
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/12/behind-natos-defensive-shield-lies-weakness-and-division-ukraine-will-pay-the-price


US Inflation Remains High

Inflation hit new peak in May amid high gas prices
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/06/10/inflation-may-cpi-fed-gas-prices/
“I think 8.3, 8.5, 8.6 percent are all roughly the same number,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former head of the Congressional Budget Office and the president of the conservative American Action Forum. “What we’re looking at is sustained high inflation that we need to control.”
 
How Inflation May Change Where You Put Your Cash
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/10/business/inflation-money-market-funds-rates.html
 
What inflation struggles of the past can tell the Fed right now
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/07/what-inflation-struggles-past-can-tell-us-right-now/ 

Thursday, June 9, 2022

Failure of Far-Left Politics


Is a decade of destructive progressive ideology finally coming to an end?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/07/opinion/progressives-america.html 
 
The Need for a Third Party
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2021/05/america-needs-third-political-party.html 

Rethinking US Foreign Policy [MUST READ]

The other side of US exceptionalism
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-exceptionalism-china-challenge-international-order-by-dani-rodrik-2022-06
Harvard economist Dani Rodrik offers a biting critique of US foreign policy:
To those who wonder why we should care about the decline of America’s relative power, US foreign-policy elites respond with a rhetorical question: Would you rather live in a world dominated by the US or by China? In truth, other countries would rather live in a world without domination, where smaller states retain a fair degree of autonomy, have good relations with all others, are not forced to choose sides, and do not become collateral damage when major powers fight it out. The sooner US leaders recognise that others do not view America’s global ambitions through the same rose-tinted glasses, the better it will be for everyone. 

Related:

Entitlement Reform Delays

As our entitlements crisis gets closer, a solution has moved farther away
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/09/social-security-medicare-crisis-approaching/ 

UK's Economic Woes - Short-Term and Long-Term Growth Challenges

Recession? Stagflation? British Businesses Wade Through Dire Warnings.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/08/business/stagflation-uk-businesses.html 

Monetary Tightening in Response to Global Stagflationary Concerns

Improving Social Mobility – Role of High Quality and Rigorous Education




Professional Golf World in Turmoil

‘This Is Uncomfortable’: Saudi Arabia Upends Genteel World of Pro Golf
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/09/sports/golf/liv-golf-pga-tour.html 

Currency Market Developments


Cryptos - Interesting Items

From the Big Short to the Big Scam
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/06/opinion/cryptocurrency-bubble-fraud.html
 
How ‘Trustless’ Is Bitcoin, Really?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/06/science/bitcoin-nakamoto-blackburn-crypto.html
In myth, the cryptocurrency is egalitarian, decentralized and all but anonymous. The reality is very different, scientists have found. 

Islamic Terror – The Forgotten Threat

Pakistan Sponsored Terror Next Door. Now, It’s Back to Roost
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/31/pakistan-terrorism-al-qaeda-taliban-ttp/
 
The Taliban Take Aim at Buddhist Heritage
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/07/taliban-target-buddhist-heritage-afghanistan/
 
Nigeria’s Christians are relentlessly under attack
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/nigeria-s-christians-relentlessly-under-attack
 
Al-Qaida in Indian subcontinent plans revenge attacks over prophet remarks
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/08/al-qaida-indian-subcontinent-revenge-attacks-prophet-remarks
 
Cineworld pulls 'blasphemous' film about Prophet Mohammed's daughter
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/06/08/cineworld-pulls-lady-of-heaven-protest-blasphemous-film-controversy/
Related:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/a-win-for-the-film-critics-of-bradford   
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2022/03/historical-background-rise-of-islamic.html 

Wednesday, June 8, 2022

The Complex Relationship Between the World's Two Largest Democracies

Walter Russell Mead notes:
Hindu nationalism is here to stay. So are India’s communal tensions, and so too for that matter is the belief of many Americans that they have a solemn duty to tell people in other countries and cultures how to live—and to impose sanctions on those unhappy occasions when they fail to take our advice. If bilateral relations are to prosper, Indians and Americans need to find better ways to manage these chronic issues.
India and the U.S. are raucously democratic societies, and their foreign policies cannot ignore public opinion. Managing this critical relationship is never going to be easy. Building deeper ties between the two societies will help; so too will quiet, low-key conversations aimed at preventing blowups before they occur. Both sides need this relationship; we both need to focus on making it work.