At BlackRock, Machines Are Rising Over Managers to Pick
Stocks
http://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/28/business/dealbook/blackrock-actively-managed-funds-computer-models.htmlAttention Economy
Thursday, March 30, 2017
US-China Economic Ties
An interesting piece on the world's most important bilateral economic relationship
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21719772-worlds-most-important-bilateral-economic-relationship-flourishingand-deepCollege Grads - Stagnant Wages
U.S. College Grads See Slim-to-Nothing Wage Gains Since
Recession
“Wages for college
graduates across many majors have fallen since the 2007-09 recession, according
to an unpublished analysis by the Georgetown University Center on Education and
the Workforce in Washington using Census bureau figures. Young job-seekers
appear to be the biggest losers…
Among the factors at
play are advances in technology and automation, which are not only taking away
U.S. manufacturing jobs, but also having an impact on white collar workers,
Valletta found. Legal clerks and researchers are increasingly finding their
jobs supplanted by computers, for example.”
Is a Double-Major Valuable?
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/pay-get-double-major-college/Wednesday, March 29, 2017
AI and Medical Diagnosis
A fascinating piece from Siddhartha Mukherjee - “The Algorithm Will See You Now.”
“Thrun was
convinced that he could outdo these first-generation diagnostic devices by
moving away from rule-based algorithms to learning-based ones—from rendering a
diagnosis by “knowing that” to doing so by “knowing how.” Increasingly,
learning algorithms of the kind that Thrun works with involve a computing
strategy known as a “neural network,” because it’s inspired by a model of how
the brain functions. In the brain, neural synapses are strengthened and
weakened through repeated activation; these digital systems aim to achieve
something similar through mathematical means, adjusting the “weights” of the
connections to move toward the desired output. The more powerful ones have
something akin to layers of neurons, each processing the input data and sending
the results up to the next layer. Hence, “deep learning.””
UK Triggers Brexit
A momentous day for the UK and the EU:
Potential Economic Consequences arising from Brexit:
http://www.scirp.org/Journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=74445Tuesday, March 28, 2017
Robots and the Labor Market
For Every Robot, Up to Six Humans Lose Their Jobs
Gary, Indiana – A Case Study
CARRY TRADE, EXCHANGE RATES and the TRUMP TRADE
CARRY TRADE, the US DOLLAR, and the TRUMP TRADE https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-27/biggest-risk-from-dollar-s-drop-may-not-be-what-you-would-guess
Mexico, Peso & NAFTA: Trade Surplus or Deficit
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2017/03/15/mexico-peso-nafta-trade-surplus-or-deficit/
Sunday, March 26, 2017
Degree Requirements for Entry-Level Jobs
An interesting Bloomberg
piece:
“When the job
market was flooded with desperate applicants, many employers required college
degrees for entry-level jobs. There was a certain cruel logic to it: Hey, might
as well get the best.
The job market is
much tighter now, but it appears that employers haven't relaxed their hiring
criteria. That could explain why 43 percent say finding enough candidates is a
top challenge in filling entry-level jobs. It's a classic example of shooting
yourself in the foot, but of course it's also bad for the young people without
college degrees who can't get onto the bottom rung of the career ladder.”
Saturday, March 25, 2017
Weekend Readings - 3/25
Retail Bubble
AP Courses – A Scam?
The Trump Elite
One Nation, Under Fox: 18 Hours With a Network That
Shapes America
http://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/25/business/media/fox-news.htmlFriday, March 24, 2017
Saving the European Union
The Economist asks - Can
Europe be saved?
Related:
Leaving the euro would
be devilishly difficult
http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21719195-it-would-not-however-be-impossible-leaving-euro-would-be-devilishly-difficult
http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21719195-it-would-not-however-be-impossible-leaving-euro-would-be-devilishly-difficult
Thursday, March 23, 2017
Wednesday, March 22, 2017
Build it and They Will Come - China’s Ghost Cities Start to Fill Up
A great read:
“Mountains have
been flattened and villages bulldozed to build Lanzhou New Area in China’s wild
west. Four years ago Tom Phillips met empty streets and an eerie hush, but now
he finds this improbable desert mirage finally filling up”
Politics and Economics - Interesting Items
The Urban-Rural Split in America - An interesting piece:
Understanding the decline in US male labor force
participation rates
Eurozone – Will it Survive?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eurozone-still-vulnerable-fiscal-asymmetries-by-benedicta-marzinotto-2017-03
Labels:
Demographics,
Global Economy,
Labor Market,
Monetary Policy,
Politics,
US Economy
Patent Madness
An important patent case could affect every consumer:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-21/a-patent-case-that-affects-everyone
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-21/a-patent-case-that-affects-everyone
Tuesday, March 21, 2017
Money Laundering – The Dark Side of Global Banking
British banks and Russian money laundering operations:
“Britain’s high
street banks processed nearly $740m from a vast money-laundering operation run
by Russian criminals with links to the Russian government and the KGB, the
Guardian can reveal.
HSBC, the Royal
Bank of Scotland, Lloyds, Barclays and Coutts are among 17 banks based in the
UK, or with branches here, that are facing questions over what they knew about
the international scheme and why they did not turn away suspicious money
transfers.
Documents seen by
the Guardian show that at least $20bn appears to have been moved out of Russia
during a four-year period between 2010 and 2014. The true figure could be
$80bn, detectives believe.”
US Fiscal Policy Debates – Key Readings
The best piece on US tax policy errors:
US Budget Controversies
Border Tax Adjustment Debate:
Fiscal Policy and the Dollar
http://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2017/03/dangerous-us-policy-contradictions.html
http://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2017/03/dangerous-us-policy-contradictions.html
Sunday, March 19, 2017
Central Bank Independence – Under Threat
Fed’s independence maybe threatened by changing political
winds
Related:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-federal-reserve-commentary-idUSKBN16L2V0Saturday, March 18, 2017
Dangerous US Economic Policy Contradictions
American politicians (and even some economists) don’t
understand fundamental concepts in international economics. Every member of the
Congress and the Senate should be made to read the following excellent piece by
Chris Miller.
Four
Contradictions of US Trade Policy by Chris Miller
“Tax cuts and boosted
spending to create jobs hike the value of the US dollar, reducing US exports
and competitiveness”
Profiting from Populism [MUST READ]
An illuminating piece from Jane Meyer:
“Mercer is the
co-C.E.O. of Renaissance Technologies, which is among the most profitable hedge
funds in the country. A brilliant computer scientist, he helped transform the
financial industry through the innovative use of trading algorithms. But he has
never given an interview explaining his political views. Although Mercer has
recently become an object of media speculation, Trevor Potter, the president of
the Campaign Legal Center, a nonpartisan watchdog group, who formerly served as
the chairman of the Federal Election Commission, said, “I have no idea what his
political views are—they’re unknown, not just to the public but also to most
people who’ve been active in politics for the past thirty years.” Potter, a
Republican, sees Mercer as emblematic of a major shift in American politics
that has occurred since 2010, when the Supreme Court made a controversial
ruling in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission. That ruling, and
several subsequent ones, removed virtually all limits on how much money
corporations and nonprofit groups can spend on federal elections, and how much
individuals can give to political-action committees. Since then, power has
tilted away from the two main political parties and toward a tiny group of rich
mega-donors.”
Who Runs America?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/mercer-bannon/
Who Runs America?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/mercer-bannon/
The Return of 'Irrational Exuberance'
Economist Nouriel Roubini notes:
"[Markets] are
overestimating the positives of the US-Trump policies. Infrastructure,
stimulus, deregulation, tax cuts: I think Trump will achieve much less on those
dimensions," he said. "And they're underestimating the risk that the
U.S. protectionist policies are going to lead to trade wars, that the restrictions
on immigration are going to slow down labor supply, and that micromanaging the
corporate sector is going to be negative."
Friday, March 17, 2017
Central Banks and the Financial Markets
Financial markets and the Fed get on the same page:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-17/fed-notches-a-win-in-central-bank-battle-with-markets-on-outlook
Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-15/these-markets-are-really-moving-after-the-fed-interest-rate-hike
Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-15/these-markets-are-really-moving-after-the-fed-interest-rate-hike
Thursday, March 16, 2017
US Budget Controversy
Trump’s Budget
Could Hurt Manufacturing and Innovation
Budget cuts proposed for wide range of programs
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-trump-budget/Wednesday, March 15, 2017
Fed Shifts Focus to Policy Normalization
Federal Reserve indicates that multiple rate hikes are
likely in 2017:
FOMC statement:
Sports and Lessons in Probability
The Economist
evaluates Barcelona's improbable win in the Champions League
http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2017/03/craziness-camp-nou
http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2017/03/craziness-camp-nou
US Asset Prices
Housing Bubble DéjÃ
Vu by Mark Roe
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller expresses concern over US
equity market valuations
Goldman Sachs turns cautious on stocks
Related:
http://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2017/03/stock-market-valuations-and-asset.htmlTuesday, March 14, 2017
Learning Like Humans - AI's Big Breakthrough
Artificial Intelligence Breakthrough:
https://www.theguardian.com/global/2017/mar/14/googles-deepmind-makes-ai-program-that-can-learn-like-a-human
“Researchers have overcome one of the major stumbling blocks in artificial intelligence with a program that can learn one task after another using skills it acquires on the way.
https://www.theguardian.com/global/2017/mar/14/googles-deepmind-makes-ai-program-that-can-learn-like-a-human
“Researchers have overcome one of the major stumbling blocks in artificial intelligence with a program that can learn one task after another using skills it acquires on the way.
Developed by
Google’s AI company, DeepMind, the program has taken on a range of different
tasks and performed almost as well as a human. Crucially, and uniquely, the AI
does not forget how it solved past problems, and uses the knowledge to tackle
new ones.
The AI is not capable of the general intelligence that humans draw on when they are faced with new challenges; its use of past lessons is more limited. But the work shows a way around a problem that had to be solved if researchers are ever to build so-called artificial general intelligence (AGI) machines that match human intelligence.”
Related:
Quantum Computing Breakthrough
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609581/a-quantum-boost-for-a-different-kind-of-computer/
The AI is not capable of the general intelligence that humans draw on when they are faced with new challenges; its use of past lessons is more limited. But the work shows a way around a problem that had to be solved if researchers are ever to build so-called artificial general intelligence (AGI) machines that match human intelligence.”
Related:
Quantum Computing Breakthrough
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/609581/a-quantum-boost-for-a-different-kind-of-computer/
Monday, March 13, 2017
International Economics - Interesting Items
Imports and
Domestic Firm Productivity - Interesting new research:
Cutting the Losses:
Reassessing the Costs of Import Competition to Workers and Communities by Jonathan
T. Rothwell
Profile of international macroeconomist Kristin Forbes
Future of Renminbi
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