Economics and International Affairs Blog

Monday, March 16, 2026

Richard Bookstaber: I Predicted the 2008 Financial Crisis. What Is Coming May Be Worse.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/opinion/financial-crisis-private-credit-ai-iran-taiwan.html

Inside a $42 Billion Private-Credit Black Box: More Black Boxes
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/inside-a-42-billion-private-credit-black-box-more-black-boxes-e2523e8e
The Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund’s opacity helps explain why it is facing redemptions.

The College-Educated Working Class
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/04/college-working-class-union-labor/686059/
Can a generation of graduates frustrated by their economic prospects change American labor politics?

How God Got So Great
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/03/09/how-god-got-so-great
What monotheism means is surprisingly hard to pin down, but there’s a reason it swept the world.

Red and Blue States Are Growing Further Apart on Income Tax
https://www.wsj.com/economy/republican-democrat-state-income-tax-a9d90fa2
GOP-led states are looking to entice new residents with lower taxes, while Democratic-led states seek higher taxes on top earners to shore up budgets and social services.

It’s Good to Be a Billionaire, Even at Tax Time
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/business/billionaire-income-tax-loopholes.html
Paying taxes would feel better if the truly rich were bearing a fair share, our columnist says.

Our Inability to Live Within Our Means Makes the U.S. Vulnerable
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/12/opinion/trump-america-first-debt.html
Either the budget changes, or America’s relationship with the rest of the world does.

India Can Avoid the Middle-Income Trap
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/india-can-avoid-middle-income-trap-by-arvind-panagariya-2026-03
Can India avoid the dreaded middle-income trap that has ensnared so many other developing countries in Latin America and Southeast Asia? Its favorable demographics, steadily improving economic governance and civil administration, and recent trade agreements certainly suggest so.

Infrastructure Investment Is the Key to China’s Growth
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-must-increase-infrastructure-investment-to-meet-growth-targets-by-yu-yongding-2026-03
China’s government has now set its growth target for 2026 at 4.5-5%. With China’s GDP deflator still in negative territory and ample policy space for more expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, this is achievable, but it will require boosting both consumption and investment spending.

China’s Long-Promised Consumer Boom Is a Mirage
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/opinion/china-exports-consumer-spending.html
China may never be able to realize its longtime promise to shift away from an overreliance on exports.