Bachas, Pierre, Matthew Fisher-Post, Anders Jensen, and Gabriel Zucman. 2026. "Globalization, Capital Taxation, and Development: Evidence from a Macrohistorical Database." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 18 (4): 509–49.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/app.20240746
This paper builds and analyzes a new global macrohistorical database of effective tax rates on capital and labor in 154 countries. We establish a new stylized fact: While effective capital tax rates fell in developed countries between 1965 and 2018, they rose in developing countries after 1990. Multiple country-, sector-, and firm-level research designs suggest that trade openness contributed to this rise by increasing the share of output produced in corporations and larger firms, where effective capital taxation is higher. In contrast to a common view, globalization appears in many countries to have supported governments' ability to tax capital.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/app.20240746
This paper builds and analyzes a new global macrohistorical database of effective tax rates on capital and labor in 154 countries. We establish a new stylized fact: While effective capital tax rates fell in developed countries between 1965 and 2018, they rose in developing countries after 1990. Multiple country-, sector-, and firm-level research designs suggest that trade openness contributed to this rise by increasing the share of output produced in corporations and larger firms, where effective capital taxation is higher. In contrast to a common view, globalization appears in many countries to have supported governments' ability to tax capital.