Tuesday, February 10, 2026

K-Shaped Economy and the Restaurant Sector

K-shaped economy: What new data is revealing about the consumer
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/k-shaped-economy-data-revealing-171859781.html

America's K-shaped economy has turned restaurant winners and losers upside down
https://www.businessinsider.com/america-k-shaped-economy-breaking-fast-food-playbook-2026-2
 
What fast food’s downturn says about the US economy
https://www.ft.com/content/9643e9b8-a4d8-49e2-8c16-20c1a1c5ca4b
Restaurants have raised prices to offset rising labor and ingredient costs, leading low-income customers to visit less often. 

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The Great Rotation Trade

Wall Street’s anything-but-tech trade shakes up US stock market
https://www.ft.com/content/577b97f6-2416-48b9-9bd3-717bb202ca71
Energy groups, small caps and materials companies have displaced AI-linked shares as best performers. 

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Capital versus Labor Share of Income

The Big Money in Today’s Economy Is Going to Capital, Not Labor by Greg Ip
Soaring profits and stocks funnel more of GDP toward companies, their top employees and shareholders. AI will intensify this trend.

‘We deserve more’: US workers’ share of the pie dwindles
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/06/workers-income-labor-
 
“Perspectives on the Labor Share,” by Loukas Karabarbounis
https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.38.2.107
As of 2022, the share of US income accruing to labor is at its lowest level since the Great Depression. Updating previous studies with more recent observations, I document the continuing decline of the labor share for the United States, other countries, and various industries. I discuss how changes in technology and product, labor, and capital markets affect the trend of the labor share. I also examine its relationship with other macroeconomic trends, such as rising markups, higher concentration of economic activity, and globalization. I conclude by offering some perspectives on the economic and policy implications of the labor share decline.
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Monday, February 9, 2026

Demographics and Immigration

Pritchett, Lant. 2026. "Global Labor Mobility between Shrinking and Growing Labor Forces." Journal of Economic Perspectives 40 (1): 71–92.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/jep.20251461
Abstract
Falling fertility and improved mortality create a powerful and inexorable demographic arithmetic of ageing in the coming decades around the world, with three patterns. The richest countries, along with China and the Former Soviet Union, will see absolute declines in the labor force aged (15–64) population and absolute rises in those 65 plus. All major developing country regions except for Africa: Latin America, South-East Asia and Pacific, South Asia, and West Asia/Middle East, will experience modest labor force growth to 2050 (less than 30 percent) aged combined with rapid growth of those over 65 (doubling or tripling). The fall in fertility in Africa (Sub-Saharan and North) started later and has fallen much less and hence, in standard scenarios for 2050, Africa will account for 80 percent of all global net growth in the world's labor force aged. A fundamental feature of the global economy over the medium-run to 2050 is that that highest labor productivity countries will have absolutely fewer native-born workers and Africa, home to many of the world's lowest productivity countries, will have 800 million more labor force aged. The combination makes possible gains on the order of trillions of dollars to policies that creating legal pathways to allow people, particularly youth, to move from low productivity, labor abundance places to high productivity, labor scarcity places. But, so far, politics has not found the way to "yes" for this win-win scenario. 
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Florida versus Alabama

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Asian Immigration to the United States

Postel, Hannah M. 2026. "Asian Immigration to the United States in Historical Perspective." Journal of Economic Perspectives 40 (1): 191–214.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/jep.20251453
Asian Americans are the fastest-growing immigrant group in the United States, yet Asian immigration remains relatively understudied in quantitative social science. This paper reviews the historical evolution of Asian immigration, focusing on six major origin countries—China, Japan, India, the Philippines, Korea, and Vietnam—to show how US immigration and foreign policy shaped the size and composition of immigrant arrivals. It then examines subsequent patterns of demographic composition, geographic settlement, and socioeconomic characteristics. Taken together, the evidence highlights the enduring influence of US policy regimes on Asian immigration over time.
 
Khanna, Gaurav. 2026. "From Asia, with Skills." Journal of Economic Perspectives 40 (1): 215–40.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/jep.20251454
This paper examines the rise of high-skill migration from Asia to the United States since 1990 and its consequences for sending and receiving economies. Over 1990–2019, migrants from India, China, South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines accounted for over one-third of US growth in software developers and a quarter of the increase in scientists, engineers, and physicians. Using census microdata, visa records, and administrative sources, I show how growing US demand for talent in information technology, higher education, and healthcare interacted with Asia’s demographic and educational transformations. Policy reforms in the H-1B, F-1, and J-1 programs and sectoral shifts—such as the internet revolution and aging-related healthcare demand—generated persistent needs for foreign students and workers. Asian economies were uniquely positioned to meet this demand through tertiary expansion, strong STEM institutions, English proficiency, and diaspora networks. These inflows boosted US innovation while fostering “brain gain” and “brain circulation” in Asia. 

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A Cooling Labor Market

This Is Why It’s So Hard to Find a Job Right Now
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/this-is-why-its-so-hard-to-find-a-job-right-now-f18bd1c0
A ‘deep freeze’ has enveloped the U.S. labor market. A whole bunch of factors are at play.
 
Why Unemployment is Rising Among Young College Grads
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/why-unemployment-is-rising-among-young-college-grads-42d037da
Their skills, experience and ability to function are increasingly out of step with employers’ needs.
 
Job Hunters Are So Desperate That They’re Paying to Get Recruited
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/job-hunters-are-so-desperate-that-theyre-paying-to-get-recruited-44891ac2
A tough labor market for white-collar workers has turned the age-old recruiting model upside down. 

Weak Hiring, Layoff Plans Paint a Gloomy Labor-Market Picture
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/weak-hiring-layoff-plans-paint-a-gloomy-labor-market-picture-cfda129d
Ahead of the government’s delayed January jobs report, a mix of other federal and private data points to a rough start to the new year.


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