Deciphering the State of the U.S. Labor Market

The Fed Is Eyeing the Job Market, but It’s Difficult to Read
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/02/business/economy/the-fed-job-market.html
Fed officials are watching labor trends as they contemplate when to cut rates. But different measures are telling different stories. 

Political and Economic Challenges Facing the West

The rise of playlist politics
https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2024/05/rise-of-playlist-politics-gillian-tett
How digital choice has deepened the crisis of democracy.
 
Emmanuel Macron’s urgent message for Europe
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/05/02/emmanuel-macrons-urgent-message-for-europe
 
Immigration is surging, with big economic consequences
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/04/30/immigration-is-surging-with-big-economic-consequences
The West faces an unprecedented number of new arrivals.
 
America’s reckless borrowing is a danger to its economy—and the world’s
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/05/02/americas-reckless-borrowing-is-a-danger-to-its-economy-and-the-worlds
Without good luck or a painful adjustment, the only way out will be to let inflation rip.
 
America’s fiscal outlook is disastrous, but forgotten
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/05/02/americas-fiscal-outlook-is-disastrous-but-forgotten 

Rising Sea Levels

Where seas are rising at alarming speed
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2024/southern-us-sea-level-rise-risk-cities/
Seas in the Southern United States have risen dramatically since 2010. The extra water has upended life — flooding homes, choking septic systems and deluging roads. 

State of Crypto

The State of Crypto Is Anything but Strong
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-05-02/crypto-is-anything-but-strong-right-now
Industry boosters say they’ve learned their lessons from the last crash, but regulators need to move faster to protect a new wave of mainstream investors from the same old story. 

Inflation and Interest Rates - Muddled Outlook

Stalled Inflation Vexes the Fed. Is It Noise or a New Trend?
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/stalled-inflation-vexes-the-fed-is-it-noise-or-a-new-trend-dd381d2f
The fundamentals suggest inflation should still be headed down, but the Fed isn’t betting on that.
 
The Treasurys Market Is Getting Squeezed from All Sides
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-treasurys-market-is-getting-squeezed-from-all-sides-ab33d612
Inflation and deficits are lifting yields and jarring the stock market. 

Bank Failures and Treatment of Uninsured Depositors

When Banks Fail, Why Do We Keep Bailing Out Uninsured Depositors?

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/01/opinion/fdic-insurance-banks.html

 

Why Have Uninsured Depositors Become De Facto Insured?

http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4624095  

Related:

Why Banks These Days Are So Excited About Being Boring
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-02/why-banks-these-days-want-you-to-think-they-re-boring

A year after SVB’s failure, regional lenders have embraced stodginess as a virtue.  

Statistics and Hypothesis Testing – An Interesting Example

Are Smartphones Driving Our Teens to Depression?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/01/opinion/smartphones-social-media-mental-health-teens.html
Overall, when you dig into the country-by-country data, many places seem to be registering increases in depression among teenagers, particularly among the countries of Western Europe and North America. But the trends are hard to disentangle from changes in diagnostic patterns and the medicalization of sadness, as Lucy Foulkes has argued, and the picture varies considerably from country to country. In Canada, for instance, surveys of teenagers’ well-being show a significant decline between 2015 and 2021, particularly among young women; in South Korea rates of depressive episodes among teenagers fell by 35 percent between 2006 and 2018. 

FOMC Statement – May 1, 2024

FOMC statement:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240501a.htm
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
 
Related:
The Fed Won’t Climb Down Yet. Others Can’t Wait
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-01/rate-cuts-fed-won-t-climb-down-yet-but-others-can-t-wait-any-longer 

A Costly Error

The US Treasury’s Bond Blunder Will Cost Gen Z Dearly
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/superlong-bonds-could-have-helped-us-treasury-debt-burden-and-interest-payments-by-todd-g-buchholz-and-james-carter-2-2024-04
Rather than issuing 50- or 100-year bonds when interest rates were at rock-bottom, the US Treasury dismissed this option and simply continued to borrow on a short-term basis. Now that US interest payments are ballooning, the scale of this blunder has become apparent, as have the implications for future generations. 

Boosting Supply of Doctors in Africa

How an African university is connecting doctors to patients in remote communities

The Ozempic Economy

Ozempic Maker Novo Nordisk Has Denmark’s Economy Hooked
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-04-30/denmark-and-novo-nordisk-ozempic-maker-s-success-makes-huge-impact
The blockbuster drug producer is Europe’s most valuable company — and its home country is feeling the effects. 

U.S. Foreign Policy Towards Emerging Powers

Emerging Powers and the Future of American Statecraft
https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/04/09/emerging-powers-and-future-of-american-statecraft-pub-92101
Collectively, a group of emerging powers in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East are growing in their geopolitical weight and diplomatic ambition. How closely do they align with the United States when it comes to Russia and China? What drives their decisions on the world stage? How can the United States integrate them into its foreign policy strategy?
 
Related:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/30/middle-powers-geopolitics-united-states-diplomacy/