An Update on 'China Shock'

The Unlikely Recovery of America’s China-Shocked Towns
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/opinion/america-manufacturing-recovery-china.html

David Autor (MIT Economist) Interview:
https://gsas.harvard.edu/news/david-autor-china-shock-manufacturing-jobs-interview

What Really Drives China’s Massive Trade Surplus
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/how-to-fix-china-massive-trade-surplus-by-shang-jin-wei-2026-04
China’s trade surplus is often blamed on its industrial policies. In reality, however, it reflects a persistent gap between savings and investment, driven by demographic pressures and financial constraints that shape household behavior and restrict private firms’ access to credit.

Related:
The ‘China Shock’ Offers a Lesson. It Isn’t the One Trump Has Learned.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/11/business/economy/tariffs-trump-china-shock.html
Economists say the U.S. manufacturing decline in recent decades was not mainly about free trade, but about the pace of change without time to adjust.

How the U.S. Lost Its Place as the World’s Manufacturing Powerhouse
https://www.wsj.com/economy/us-manufacturing-decline-service-economy-ee97a1e2
Trump says his tariff plan will restore American manufacturing might, but economists are skeptical.  

Florida’s Population Boom Fizzles

Florida’s Population Boom Fizzles as High Costs Drive Away Middle Class
https://www.wsj.com/economy/floridas-population-boom-fizzles-as-high-costs-drive-away-middle-class-fbc6a345
Orlando and other Florida cities are either losing domestic migrants or gaining them more slowly, threatening the state’s economic model. 

Cybercrime Goes Global

How Cybercrime Became a Leading Industry in ‘Scambodia’
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/cambodia-cybercrime-rise-why-2f2c03cc
Crime syndicates based in Cambodia corrupt officials, enslave workers and fleece victims worldwide. 

Mark Mobius - A Pioneering Investor in Emerging Markets

Mark Mobius, ‘Indiana Jones’ of emerging markets fund management
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2026/04/19/mark-mobius-emerging-markets-fund-management-asia-finance/
Sober institutions and sophisticated retail savers alike were attracted to the fashionable promise of faraway places. Mobius was a showman and a seductive salesman, but his disciplined approach was based in research from Templeton analysts around the world and he rarely bought a share before he had visited the company himself to quiz its managers and owners.
His advice to potential investors was: “Think like we think. Give us money when markets are bad [and] invest with a five-year time horizon.” More broadly, he took the view that “the world belongs to optimists; the pessimists are only spectators.” 

Mark Mobius, Pioneering Investor in Emerging Markets 
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/business/mark-mobius-dead.html
 
The legendary stock picker opened an emerging world to investors in the funds he helped manage, but not before he saw those countries with own eyes
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/emerging-market-pioneer-mark-mobius-dies-at-89-5ed4e945

Insider Trading and Prediction Markets

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/iran-war-bets-ethics-concerns
Suspicious wagers on the US-Israel war in Iran are creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers. 

Trying to Make Sense of Recent Stock Market Moves

The Record Stock Market Rests on Some Big One-Offs
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-record-stock-market-rests-on-some-big-one-offs-7e7a2500
There are two significant reasons earnings expectations have soared—and they are both probably temporary. 

Wall Street's 'escapism' - irrational, yet completely logical
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-streets-escapism-irrational-yet-completely-logical-2026-04-16/
Maybe markets are smart not to panic. Adam Tooze, economic historian and professor at Columbia University, says the "geopolitical world" has cried wolf so much in ​recent years that investors have become inured to the doomsday howls, just as they have become de-sensitized to the unpredictable and erratic tendencies of Trump.
"We're in a world of cognitive dissonance. There are ​two worlds. For the policy people, the world as we know it is really over. For folks in the markets, it's continuity - you keep on trading," Tooze told a panel at the Institute of International Finance conference ‌in Washington ⁠on Wednesday. 

It’s Getting Harder to Tell Investing from Gambling, and It’s Not Your Fault
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/its-getting-harder-to-tell-investing-from-gambling-and-its-not-your-fault-3973ddd5

In economic theory, your attitude toward risk is supposed to remain stable, and you’ll use all relevant information when making investment decisions.
In the real world, your attitude toward risk depends partly on who you are, but also on what you’ve lived through. And the data you’ll rely on is a mix of recent history and whatever stands out most vividly from your own experience.

 
Why the Stock Market Makes No Sense Right Now
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/opinion/wall-street-markets-iran-ai.html 

The Stock Market Sounds an Alarm for the First Time in 25 Years. Here's Where History Says the S&P 500 Is Headed Next.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-sounds-alarm-first-015000710.html
Generally, when an analyst is discussing whether the market is over- or undervalued, they are referring to earnings. In other words, Wall Street benchmarks the average price-to-earnings (P/E) or forward earnings multiples across the index against historical thresholds to determine whether the market is frothy.
Don't get me wrong: Analyzing these metrics can be quite helpful. But in my eyes, traditional valuation multiples fall short at capturing more nuanced valuation dynamics. Instead, I choose to look at the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio.
The CAPE ratio is pretty nifty because it accounts for earnings over the past 10 years. By casting its net this wide, the CAPE ratio inherently captures and smooths out different economic cycles, inflation levels, and one-time events that influence earnings quality in the market.

The stock market’s new approach to valuation

https://www.ft.com/content/7227583f-3335-4cc2-a1af-24db59ebe3fa

Hong Kong and Mainland China

The declining appeal of the Hong Kong expat
https://www.ft.com/content/b1f029f7-c4d5-445e-9fad-3158528a711f
“Given the vast influx of dual-educated [in China and the US] highly motivated staff from China, the need to import solely from abroad has diminished,” said Jonathan Slone, former Asia chair of Jefferies.
More sought after are those like the Beijing-born Bridget (not her real name): skilled graduates from top universities on the mainland who can liaise easily with clients across China. In particular demand are those with a US education that allows them to keep one foot in both the Chinese and western worlds.