Arindrajit Dube on America’s Wage Problem

An Economist’s Quest to Solve America’s Wage Problem
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/an-economists-quest-to-solve-americas-wage-problem
Arindrajit Dube argues that the answer is empowering workers and setting mandatory wage standards across industries. 

US Labor Supply

Why More People Are Dropping Out of the Job Market
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/why-more-people-are-dropping-out-of-the-job-market-6e9f4eb4
An aging population and Trump’s immigration crackdown have pushed a key labor metric to a half-century low, excluding the pandemic. That has some economists nervous. 

The Workers Opting to Retire Instead of Taking On AI
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/the-workers-opting-to-retire-instead-of-taking-on-ai-3400fb92
Their careers spanned the personal computing, internet and smartphone waves. But some older workers see AI’s arrival as the cue to exit. 

History Lesson: Most Devastating Military Conflicts

The 4 Most Destructive Conflicts in All of Human History
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/4-most-destructive-conflicts-all-human-history-162752

From Gemini AI:
When adjusted for global population, the Mongol conquests (13th century) and the Three Kingdoms period in China (2nd/3rd century) were far more devastating than World War II. While WWII caused 70–85 million deaths (roughly 3-4% of the population), the Mongol conquests killed an estimated 11-13% of the world population, and the Three Kingdoms era may have wiped out 13-17%.

Here are the biggest wars adjusted for global population:

• Mongol Conquests (1200–1300): Estimated to have killed 20-60 million, representing roughly 5-13% of the world population at the time.
• Three Kingdoms Period (220–280): This conflict claimed roughly 34 million lives, equivalent to roughly 13-17% of the global population.
• The An Lushan Rebellion (755–763): Estimates suggest this conflict killed up to 16% of the world's population.
• Taiping Rebellion (1850–1864): An extremely violent civil war in China, which caused 20-70 million deaths, or about 1.4-2.6% of the world population.

While World War II remains the deadliest in absolute numbers (highest total death count), these earlier conflicts were far more catastrophic relative to the smaller total number of people living at those times.

Iran War - Geopolitics and Strategic Shifts

It's time to end the world's delusions over the Iran energy crisis
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/its-time-end-worlds-delusions-over-iran-energy-crisis-2026-04-07/

Electrostates vs. Petrostates
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/23/climate-change-world-order-green-transition-fossil-fuel/
China is building a new green bloc, while the United States is doubling down on oil.

The Iran War Is Making the American Economy More Dominant Than Ever
https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-iran-war-is-making-the-american-economy-more-dominant-than-ever-287f9569
America’s role as a major oil-and-gas exporter tempts President Trump to walk away from the Strait of Hormuz and wield leverage over others.
 
A New Oil Shock Accelerates a Return to Nuclear Power
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/business/nuclear-energy-iran-war.html
Shocks to natural gas supplies are spurring countries in Asia and elsewhere to rethink their rejection of nuclear energy after the 2011 disaster in Fukushima, Japan. 

 
Iran War Effect
Fareed's Take: https://youtu.be/w2FoG5s1WGQ
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/04/03/iran-war-trump-hormuz-mistake/
 
The Iran Shock
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/iran-shock
And the Dangerous Allure of Energy Autarky. 

The West cannot understand Iran
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2026/03/the-west-cannot-understand-iran
Complacent commentators are obscuring the realities of the conflict.

Big Picture View:

The Follies of Predicting War

https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/20/book-review-war-and-power-phillips-payson-obrien/

One excellent contribution to this debate is a recently published book by Phillips Payson O’Brien. In War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why, O’Brien, who is a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews in Scotland, reminds us that the outcome of war may indeed be influenced by aspects beyond guns, air power, and the number of soldiers. He argues that a more holistic approach to how military might is usually measured will improve our understanding of who wins wars and why—and potentially even deter states from going to war in the first place.

Value versus Growth Stocks in 2026

One of the Stock Market’s Last Havens Is Now at Risk
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/one-of-the-stock-markets-last-havens-is-now-at-risk-7aa84e5d
Value stocks have outperformed growth stocks by the biggest margin in years.

An Underappreciated Cost of Home Ownership

The Typical U.S. Home Is 44 Years Old—And Needs Tons of Work
https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/the-typical-u-s-home-is-44-years-oldand-needs-tons-of-work-a1fd89ea
The costs of home maintenance and upgrades on America’s aging housing stock are vast and rising fast. 

Airlines Bet on Premium Seats

First-class airline bet is economically well-timed
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/first-class-airline-bet-is-economically-well-timed-2026-04-02/
It’s also possible that sustained high oil prices could ​hit equity markets hard, leading to a negative “wealth effect” that dents animal spirits and therefore travel ​among the world’s richest ⁠fliers. Still, markets are not quite there yet. And higher fuel costs necessarily call for higher fares. Leaning on those better able to afford it simply makes financial sense.