IMF WEO – April 2026
https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf
https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf
Economics and International Affairs Blog
A politically independent blog by Vivekanand Jayakumar
Tuesday, April 14, 2026
US Productivity
The Economy Is Growing, Jobs Aren’t. Why That Might
Be OK.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/the-economy-is-growing-jobs-arent-why-that-might-be-ok-5c50a535
An unusual divergence between GDP and new jobs shows worker productivity is making up for a slowdown in immigration and the labor force. Artificial intelligence could help.
White House Study Says DEI Hurts Productivity
https://www.wsj.com/business/white-house-study-says-dei-hurts-productivity-7f7100a9
The report found that industries that adopted race-based hiring policies in the past decade saw productivity fall, bolstering Trump’s opposition.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/the-economy-is-growing-jobs-arent-why-that-might-be-ok-5c50a535
An unusual divergence between GDP and new jobs shows worker productivity is making up for a slowdown in immigration and the labor force. Artificial intelligence could help.
White House Study Says DEI Hurts Productivity
https://www.wsj.com/business/white-house-study-says-dei-hurts-productivity-7f7100a9
The report found that industries that adopted race-based hiring policies in the past decade saw productivity fall, bolstering Trump’s opposition.
Monday, April 13, 2026
A Consequential Political Shift in Hungary
How Orban, a Wizard of Populism, Lost His Magic
Touch
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/13/world/europe/orban-hungary-election-magyar-populism.html
The defeat for Prime Minister Viktor Orban is less the result of an ideological shift in Hungary, and more the playing out of a fundamental rule of politics.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/13/world/europe/orban-hungary-election-magyar-populism.html
The defeat for Prime Minister Viktor Orban is less the result of an ideological shift in Hungary, and more the playing out of a fundamental rule of politics.
Why Orbán Lost
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/orban-lost-because-terminal-logic-of-illiberal-democracy-by-laszlo-bruszt-2026-04
The downfall of Hungary's autocratic prime minister, whose model of "illiberal democracy" became a lodestar to many on the right—was a consequence of that model's own logic. Whatever happens next, one thing is certain: democracy's friends and foes alike will be watching closely.
After Orbán, Hungary Faces an Even Harder Battle
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/after-defeating-orban-in-hungary-election-opposition-must-rebuild-democratic-society-by-maciej-kisilowski-2026-04
Center-right Tisza’s victory in Hungary’s election shows that even a highly entrenched new-right regime can be defeated at the polls. But the myths, resentments, and paranoia that fueled popular support for Viktor Orbán’s brand of illiberalism have not suddenly vanished with his defeat.
Orbánomics has been a disaster for Hungary
https://www.ft.com/content/fa45b937-60e6-43c4-8dfc-01ee82de33a7
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/orban-lost-because-terminal-logic-of-illiberal-democracy-by-laszlo-bruszt-2026-04
The downfall of Hungary's autocratic prime minister, whose model of "illiberal democracy" became a lodestar to many on the right—was a consequence of that model's own logic. Whatever happens next, one thing is certain: democracy's friends and foes alike will be watching closely.
After Orbán, Hungary Faces an Even Harder Battle
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/after-defeating-orban-in-hungary-election-opposition-must-rebuild-democratic-society-by-maciej-kisilowski-2026-04
Center-right Tisza’s victory in Hungary’s election shows that even a highly entrenched new-right regime can be defeated at the polls. But the myths, resentments, and paranoia that fueled popular support for Viktor Orbán’s brand of illiberalism have not suddenly vanished with his defeat.
Orbánomics has been a disaster for Hungary
https://www.ft.com/content/fa45b937-60e6-43c4-8dfc-01ee82de33a7
Sunday, April 12, 2026
Risks Associated with AI
Mutually Automated Destruction: The Escalating Global A.I. Arms Race
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/12/technology/china-russia-us-ai-weapons.html
China, the U.S., Russia and others have ramped up their A.I.-backed military systems. The buildup has been compared to the dawn of the nuclear weapons age.
Banks Are Warned About Anthropic’s New, Powerful A.I. Technology
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/business/anthropic-claude-mythos-preview-banks.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/12/technology/china-russia-us-ai-weapons.html
China, the U.S., Russia and others have ramped up their A.I.-backed military systems. The buildup has been compared to the dawn of the nuclear weapons age.
Banks Are Warned About Anthropic’s New, Powerful A.I. Technology
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/business/anthropic-claude-mythos-preview-banks.html
Gig Economy and High Gas Prices
Gas Prices Turn the Gig Worker Economy Upside Down
https://www.wsj.com/economy/food-delivery-drivers-gas-prices-321107e6
Drivers and delivery workers are adjusting schedules, turning down longer rides, and working more hours to make up for lost income.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/food-delivery-drivers-gas-prices-321107e6
Drivers and delivery workers are adjusting schedules, turning down longer rides, and working more hours to make up for lost income.
Saturday, April 11, 2026
Mean Reversion and Stock Returns
Why investors can still believe in mean reversion
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/why-investors-can-still-believe-mean-reversion-2026-04-10/
“In a moderately mean-reverting world, any strategy of selling winners and buying losers should win,” Grantham writes. “The fact that a company’s depressed profitability reverts to its average level seemed to me just the fortunes of war. Say a firm is operating in an industry that turns down. Its managers scramble around looking for ways to stop the rot… they slash costs and eventually get something right… and as profits recover the stock price does too. Conversely, when a firm is superprofitable its management becomes overconfident, it invests too much, costs rise faster than sales and margins decline.”
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/why-investors-can-still-believe-mean-reversion-2026-04-10/
“In a moderately mean-reverting world, any strategy of selling winners and buying losers should win,” Grantham writes. “The fact that a company’s depressed profitability reverts to its average level seemed to me just the fortunes of war. Say a firm is operating in an industry that turns down. Its managers scramble around looking for ways to stop the rot… they slash costs and eventually get something right… and as profits recover the stock price does too. Conversely, when a firm is superprofitable its management becomes overconfident, it invests too much, costs rise faster than sales and margins decline.”
One of the Stock Market’s Last Havens Is Now at Risk
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/one-of-the-stock-markets-last-havens-is-now-at-risk-7aa84e5d
Value stocks have outperformed growth stocks by the biggest margin in years.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/one-of-the-stock-markets-last-havens-is-now-at-risk-7aa84e5d
Value stocks have outperformed growth stocks by the biggest margin in years.
Friday, April 10, 2026
Taiwan - The Next Chokepoint?
What China Just Learned from the Iran War
https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/china-taiwan-trump-iran-war/686738/
A blockade of Taiwan would hurt the global economy more than Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/china-taiwan-trump-iran-war/686738/
A blockade of Taiwan would hurt the global economy more than Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Kryptonite to America’s Economic Super Powers: Chokepoints
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/kryptonite-to-americas-economic-super-powers-chokepoints-351ee72c
The U.S. brings superior size to economic warfare, but China and Iran have fought back through control of critical economic assets.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/kryptonite-to-americas-economic-super-powers-chokepoints-351ee72c
The U.S. brings superior size to economic warfare, but China and Iran have fought back through control of critical economic assets.
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