The Race to Dominate A.I. Is Brutally Competitive.
That’s Good for Everyone.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/opinion/ai-industry-competition-innovation.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/opinion/ai-industry-competition-innovation.html
Economics and International Affairs Blog
A politically independent blog by Vivekanand Jayakumar
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
China’s Macroeconomic Development
Chen, Kaiji, and Tao Zha. 2025. "China's
Macroeconomic Development: The Role of Gradualist Reforms." Journal
of Economic Literature 63 (4): 1331–62.
This paper provides analytic guides to recent literature on China’s macroeconomic development, emphasizing the critical role of the gradualist reform approach. Our analysis suggests that from 1978 to 1997, the gradualist approach contributed to China’s aggregate total factor productivity and economic growth primarily through policies that facilitated the reallocation of surplus labor from agriculture to nonagricultural sectors. Since 1998, the government’s focus shifted, with various reforms encouraging large enterprises, whether state owned or privately owned, to enter capital-intensive sectors, making capital deepening the main driver of economic growth. While this strategy sustained China’s GDP growth, it also increased trade tensions with global partners, created barriers to transitioning to a consumption-led economy, and threatened China’s long-term financial stability, casting long shadows over the Chinese economy.
This paper provides analytic guides to recent literature on China’s macroeconomic development, emphasizing the critical role of the gradualist reform approach. Our analysis suggests that from 1978 to 1997, the gradualist approach contributed to China’s aggregate total factor productivity and economic growth primarily through policies that facilitated the reallocation of surplus labor from agriculture to nonagricultural sectors. Since 1998, the government’s focus shifted, with various reforms encouraging large enterprises, whether state owned or privately owned, to enter capital-intensive sectors, making capital deepening the main driver of economic growth. While this strategy sustained China’s GDP growth, it also increased trade tensions with global partners, created barriers to transitioning to a consumption-led economy, and threatened China’s long-term financial stability, casting long shadows over the Chinese economy.
Investor Skepticism
Skeptical Investors Are Hunting for Ways to Short the AI Frenzy
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/skeptical-investors-are-hunting-for-ways-to-short-the-ai-frenzy-8790baf9
Traders are betting investments in the technology won’t pay off as investors become increasingly nervous about AI’s potential impact.
Private Equity Was Headed for a Correction, Even Without AI Gloom
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/private-equity-was-headed-for-a-correction-even-without-ai-gloom-aea842d2
Lower leverage, higher rates and tougher exits are among the problems facing the industry.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/skeptical-investors-are-hunting-for-ways-to-short-the-ai-frenzy-8790baf9
Traders are betting investments in the technology won’t pay off as investors become increasingly nervous about AI’s potential impact.
Private Equity Was Headed for a Correction, Even Without AI Gloom
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/private-equity-was-headed-for-a-correction-even-without-ai-gloom-aea842d2
Lower leverage, higher rates and tougher exits are among the problems facing the industry.
IP and Economic Development
When Stronger IP Protection Stifles Innovation
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/weak-intellectual-property-protections-help-latecomers-build-innovation-capacity-by-keun-lee-2026-02
Countries at the technological frontier need strong intellectual-property protections to stimulate innovation. But a weaker IP-rights regime can enable latecomers to build their capabilities through imitation and minor improvements, before they are capable of producing high-level patentable inventions.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/weak-intellectual-property-protections-help-latecomers-build-innovation-capacity-by-keun-lee-2026-02
Countries at the technological frontier need strong intellectual-property protections to stimulate innovation. But a weaker IP-rights regime can enable latecomers to build their capabilities through imitation and minor improvements, before they are capable of producing high-level patentable inventions.
Tuesday, February 24, 2026
Tech and Geopolitical Risk
The
Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored
If China invades Taiwan and cuts off its chip exports to American companies, the tech industry and the U.S. economy would be crippled.
If China invades Taiwan and cuts off its chip exports to American companies, the tech industry and the U.S. economy would be crippled.
Monday, February 23, 2026
Uncertainty Returns
In Trump Era, the Only Sure Thing for Businesses
and Governments Is Uncertainty
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/in-trump-era-the-only-sure-thing-for-businesses-and-governments-is-uncertainty-d28d21e1
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/in-trump-era-the-only-sure-thing-for-businesses-and-governments-is-uncertainty-d28d21e1
Sizing Up the U.S. Economy in Trump’s First Year
https://www.wsj.com/economy/sizing-up-the-u-s-economy-in-trumps-first-year-07a68adf
President Trump has touted the economy’s performance under his watch, but the report card is a bit more mixed after his first year back in office.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/sizing-up-the-u-s-economy-in-trumps-first-year-07a68adf
President Trump has touted the economy’s performance under his watch, but the report card is a bit more mixed after his first year back in office.
AI Hypotheticals and Stock Market Reaction
Viral Doomsday Report Lays Bare Wall Street’s Deep
Anxiety About AI Future
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-02-23-2026-06a32080
Citrini Research’s thought experiment rattled investors already wary of tech disruptions. The Dow industrials fell 822 points.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-02-23-2026-06a32080
Citrini Research’s thought experiment rattled investors already wary of tech disruptions. The Dow industrials fell 822 points.
Taleb, Citrini Fuel AI Scare Trade as IBM Drops
Most in 25 Years
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/software-payments-shares-tumble-citrini-162303649.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/software-payments-shares-tumble-citrini-162303649.html
https://substack.com/home/post/p-188821754
A Thought Exercise in Financial History, from the Future.
Anthropic launches new enterprise offerings,
raising the heat on software companies
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anthropic-launches-new-enterprise-offerings-raising-the-heat-on-software-companies-143054933.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anthropic-launches-new-enterprise-offerings-raising-the-heat-on-software-companies-143054933.html
Policy bazooka could fend off jobless AI world
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/global-markets-breakingviews-2026-02-24/
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/global-markets-breakingviews-2026-02-24/
Alternative Viewpoint: Ignore the AI Hysteria
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ignore-the-ai-hysteria-b64eac84
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ignore-the-ai-hysteria-b64eac84
Related:
Big Tech will only partly dissolve AI water risk
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/big-tech-will-only-partly-dissolve-ai-water-risk-2026-02-23/
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/big-tech-will-only-partly-dissolve-ai-water-risk-2026-02-23/
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)