Insider Trading and Prediction Markets

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/iran-war-bets-ethics-concerns
Suspicious wagers on the US-Israel war in Iran are creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers. 

Trying to Make Sense of Recent Stock Market Moves

Wall Street's 'escapism' - irrational, yet completely logical
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-streets-escapism-irrational-yet-completely-logical-2026-04-16/
Maybe markets are smart not to panic. Adam Tooze, economic historian and professor at Columbia University, says the "geopolitical world" has cried wolf so much in ​recent years that investors have become inured to the doomsday howls, just as they have become de-sensitized to the unpredictable and erratic tendencies of Trump.
"We're in a world of cognitive dissonance. There are ​two worlds. For the policy people, the world as we know it is really over. For folks in the markets, it's continuity - you keep on trading," Tooze told a panel at the Institute of International Finance conference ‌in Washington ⁠on Wednesday. 

It’s Getting Harder to Tell Investing from Gambling, and It’s Not Your Fault
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/its-getting-harder-to-tell-investing-from-gambling-and-its-not-your-fault-3973ddd5

In economic theory, your attitude toward risk is supposed to remain stable, and you’ll use all relevant information when making investment decisions.
In the real world, your attitude toward risk depends partly on who you are, but also on what you’ve lived through. And the data you’ll rely on is a mix of recent history and whatever stands out most vividly from your own experience.

 
Why the Stock Market Makes No Sense Right Now
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/opinion/wall-street-markets-iran-ai.html 

The Stock Market Sounds an Alarm for the First Time in 25 Years. Here's Where History Says the S&P 500 Is Headed Next.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-sounds-alarm-first-015000710.html
Generally, when an analyst is discussing whether the market is over- or undervalued, they are referring to earnings. In other words, Wall Street benchmarks the average price-to-earnings (P/E) or forward earnings multiples across the index against historical thresholds to determine whether the market is frothy.
Don't get me wrong: Analyzing these metrics can be quite helpful. But in my eyes, traditional valuation multiples fall short at capturing more nuanced valuation dynamics. Instead, I choose to look at the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio.
The CAPE ratio is pretty nifty because it accounts for earnings over the past 10 years. By casting its net this wide, the CAPE ratio inherently captures and smooths out different economic cycles, inflation levels, and one-time events that influence earnings quality in the market.

Hong Kong and Mainland China

The declining appeal of the Hong Kong expat
https://www.ft.com/content/b1f029f7-c4d5-445e-9fad-3158528a711f
“Given the vast influx of dual-educated [in China and the US] highly motivated staff from China, the need to import solely from abroad has diminished,” said Jonathan Slone, former Asia chair of Jefferies.
More sought after are those like the Beijing-born Bridget (not her real name): skilled graduates from top universities on the mainland who can liaise easily with clients across China. In particular demand are those with a US education that allows them to keep one foot in both the Chinese and western worlds. 

Dividend Stocks - A Case Study

Is Nike’s dividend safe? Yield & payout ratio explained
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/nike-dividend
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nike-dividend-safe-yield-payout-145100012.html 

Is Venezuela Improving?

Venezuela is not the triumph Donald Trump claims, but it’s improving
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/04/16/venezuela-is-not-the-triumph-donald-trump-claims-but-its-improving
Economic growth may accelerate and the regime has become less repressive. 

Industrial Policy in the Twenty-First Century

A Pillar of the Economics Establishment Admits That It Was Wrong
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/04/world-bank-industrial-policy/686820/
In a new report, the World Bank thinks better of its old free-market absolutism.

Industrial Policy for Development: Approaches in the 21^st Century
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/b98ce474-f652-4b58-8c74-a65210da7d4c/content 

The Origins and Fate of Digital Sovereignty
https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/why-digital-sovereignty-requires-some-degree-of-protectionism-by-robin-rivaton-2024-06
Among the world’s major economies, only China and Russia have managed to build digital industries that stand apart from American platforms. Once foreign incumbents reach critical mass, local firms have little room to scale, leaving most countries without a viable path to technological autonomy.

Is China Back?

China is coming back – and the timing couldn’t be better
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-is-coming-back-timing-couldnt-be-better-2026-04-16/
 
FT Series: China Shock 2.0
https://www.ft.com/china-shock