Press Freedom Under Threat in America
Related:
Thursday, November 30, 2017
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
France – Labor Market Reforms
Labor Market Reforms in France
Matt Browne notes:
“During his
election campaign, Macron vowed to cut unemployment to 7 percent by 2022. As
president, he proposes tackling unemployment by simplifying corporate
governance and easing social dialogue, particularly in small and medium-sized
enterprises, where it will also be easier to hire and fire employees. Like
former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, whose Agenda 2010 and Hartz reforms
were criticized by opponents on the left and right, Macron’s reforms have
raised concerns among trade unions and the investment community alike.
With this, in
Germany and now in France, we are witnessing the transition from the solidarity
and security of the mass industrial age to the fragmentation and insecurity of
the new economy, shaped by globalization and what in Europe is still an
incipient digital revolution. As Macron and Schröder recognize, large welfare
states must be able to compete in the global economy to pay for themselves.”
Central Banks and the Bitcoin Bubble Fears
Bitcoin Mania – Potential Risks
Central Bankers Start to Pay Attention to
Crypto-Currencies
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-26/what-the-world-s-central-banks-are-saying-about-cryptocurrenciesDigital Transformation in Emerging Markets
Tom Friedman on the rapid digital transformation occurring in
emerging markets
Monday, November 27, 2017
Sunday, November 26, 2017
A Dangerous Rise in Anti-Intellectualism
Paul Krugman notes:
“Even as old
prejudices return, we’ve clearly entered a new age of politically potent
anti-intellectualism. America built its world pre-eminence largely on the
strength of its educational system. But according to Pew, 58 percent of Republicans
now say that colleges and universities have a negative effect on the country,
versus only 36 percent who see a positive effect.”
Related:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2017/11/25/elitists-crybabies-and-junky-degrees/Friday, November 24, 2017
US Trade Policy
An excellent piece from Robert Samuelson on Trade and Politics
Review of Douglas Irwin's Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy
Is America Still Open to Skilled Workers?
Is Anyone Good Enough
for an H-1B Visa?
Trump Administration
Tightens Scrutiny of Skilled Worker Visa Applicants
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-tightens-scrutiny-of-skilled-worker-visa-applicants-1511114338
Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-01/trump-rolls-out-a-misguided-attack-on-skilled-immigration
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-tightens-scrutiny-of-skilled-worker-visa-applicants-1511114338
Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-01/trump-rolls-out-a-misguided-attack-on-skilled-immigration
Thursday, November 23, 2017
Inheritance Tax – A Good Idea?
The Economist
on the pros and cons of the Inheritance Tax
https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21731620-benefits-cutting-these-levies-are-overstated-taxing-inheritances-falling-outWeather Disasters and Economic Data
Hurricane and Distortions in Economic Data
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-22/pressure-on-u-s-households-intensifies
Capitalism, Socialism and Economic Development
PART 1 - Free Markets and Economic Development
PART 2 - Capitalism and Socialism
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-22/socialism-and-capitalism-work-togetherSunday, November 19, 2017
Coffee and Globalization – A Great Case Study
The Booming Coffee Industry and Those It's
Left Behind
“Roasting is the
most interesting point in the production process, not only for connoisseurs,
but also from a profit-margin perspective. It's here that cheap coffee beans
are turned into a sometimes-expensive consumer product. It is at this point in
the supply chain where value is added.
Brazil is the
world's biggest exporter of green coffee, the raw material that is eventually turned
into the coffee we drink. The country sells every kilogram that is laboriously
picked in the fields for $2.70. Germany, meanwhile, is the world's biggest
exporter of roasted coffee - and sells each kilogram for $6.21. That's a markup
of over 100 percent.”
Drivers of Income Inequality
HIGHLY RECOMMENDED – Myths of the 1 Percent: What Puts People at
the Top
My own perspective on the topic:
Federal Reserve’s Policy Conundrum
The Fed faces an interesting dilemma:
“That
"box" is the quandary of how the Fed should respond to the dynamics
of late-cycle economic expansions. As in the middle of the last decade, the Fed
is concerned about an overheating economy. Back then, the fear stemmed from the
booming housing sector. (Now the concern is a labor shortage -- with increased
immigration politically unlikely and with the unemployment rate already down to
4.1 percent, below the Fed's longer-run projection of 4.6 percent.) Financial
conditions were very loose, making the Fed think that overheating risks would
become even more pronounced in the future.”
Friday, November 17, 2017
Rise of the Idiocracy
We’re with Stupid
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/17/opinion/were-with-stupid.html
Related:
Related:
The Half-Educated Elite - Interesting
point raised by John Naughton:
“So what else could
explain the astonishing naivety of the tech crowd? My hunch is it has something
to do with their educational backgrounds. Take the Google co-founders. Sergey
Brin studied mathematics and computer science. His partner, Larry Page, studied
engineering and computer science. Zuckerberg dropped out of Harvard, where he
was studying psychology and computer science, but seems to have been more
interested in the latter.
Now mathematics,
engineering and computer science are wonderful disciplines – intellectually
demanding and fulfilling. And they are economically vital for any advanced
society. But mastering them teaches students very little about society or
history – or indeed about human nature. As a consequence, the new masters of
our universe are people who are essentially only half-educated. They have had
no exposure to the humanities or the social sciences, the academic disciplines
that aim to provide some understanding of how society works, of history and of
the roles that beliefs, philosophies, laws, norms, religion and customs play in
the evolution of human culture.”Mugabe and the Collapse of the Zimbabwean Economy
A timely read: The last days of Robert Mugabe
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/2017/01/last-days-robert-mugabeMoody’s Upgrades India’s Ratings
A vote of confidence for Modi’s reform agenda
“Modi has pushed
through sweeping reforms, with mixed results. Moody’s acknowledged that the
cash ban and goods and services tax have undermined growth in the near term. In
the longer term, however, the GST will promote productivity by removing
barriers to interstate trade, Moody’s said, also citing Modi’s improvements to the
monetary policy framework, measures to clean up bad loans, and efforts to bring
more areas into the formal economy.”
RELATED:
RELATED:
Will infrastructure spending and cleanup of bad loans from bank balance sheets help?
Fixing the flawed national sales tax system:
GST Background info:
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
Economics and Common Sense
A great read: Economics
isn't a bogus science — we just don't use it correctly
John Ioannidis notes:
“But these crises
and scandals do not mean that the science of economics is inherently
unreliable. Most of them occurred because we ignored what we knew.
Perhaps most
obviously, we deputized — and continue to deputize — the wrong people as
authorities. For instance, many assume that the real experts on the subject of
money are those who have a lot of it. But the opinions of wealthy tycoons are
often dissociated from scientific evidence, out of touch with reality and all
too plainly wrong. Amassing wealth as an individual is not the same thing as
building and sustaining broad economic growth across nations. Often, making a
private fortune is a matter of luck. “Fortuna” is the Latin word for luck,
after all.
What’s more, our
culture elevates predictions about the stock market and the course of the
economy at large, when any good economist will tell you that the most advanced
models are not much better than gut feeling. Credit rating agencies and highly
paid gurus are largely selling products of little or no value to the gullible.”--
What Makes a Good Economist?
John Maynard Keynes famously stated:
“The
master-economist must possess a rare combination of gifts .... He must be
mathematician, historian, statesman, philosopher—in some degree. He must
understand symbols and speak in words. He must contemplate the particular, in
terms of the general, and touch abstract and concrete in the same flight of
thought. He must study the present in the light of the past for the purposes of
the future. No part of man's nature or his institutions must be entirely
outside his regard. He must be purposeful and disinterested in a simultaneous
mood, as aloof and incorruptible as an artist, yet sometimes as near to earth
as a politician.”
Japan’s Becomes Relevant Again
Japan’s economy appears to be gaining some momentum:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/14/business/japan-economy-gdp.htmlRelated:
Japan Goes with Another Round of Abenomics
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-10-25/japan-goes-with-another-round-of-abenomics
Monday, November 13, 2017
Have we Already Forgotten the Lessons from the 2007-09 Financial Crisis?
The Lost Lesson of the Financial Crisis
Cleveland Fed Slams ‘Predatory’ Marketplace Lending in Report
Lessons for financial investors:
Avoid Herding Behavior:
Saturday, November 11, 2017
Singles Day and E-Commerce in China
Record sales once again
Singles Day and Modern China
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41954591Bitcoin’s Wild Ride
UPDATE:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-13/bitcoin-plunges-29-from-record-high-as-civil-war-intensifies
Speculation leads to wild swings in Bitcoin’s price:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-10/bitcoin-slumps-as-developer-community-remains-dividedhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-13/bitcoin-plunges-29-from-record-high-as-civil-war-intensifies
Speculation leads to wild swings in Bitcoin’s price:
Pollution in Delhi – Collision of Economics and Politics
An excellent piece on New Delhi’s life-threatening smog:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/11/11/delhis-been-hit-with-toxic-smog-why-its-political/Three Impressive New Books
The Dawn Watch: Joseph
Conrad in a Global World by Maya Jasanoff
Review:
Americana: A 400-Year
History of American Capitalism by Bhu Srinivasan
Review:
Economics for the
Common Good by Jean Tirole
Review:
Review:
Colleges and Intergenerational Economic Mobility
Interesting new research:
Mobility Report Cards: The Role of Colleges in Intergenerational
Mobility by Chetty, R., et al.
Abstract
We characterize
intergenerational income mobility at each college in the United States using
data for over 30 million college students from 1999-2013. We document four
results. First, access to colleges varies greatly by parent income. For
example, children whose parents are in the top 1% of the income distribution
are 77 times more likely to attend an Ivy League college than those whose
parents are in the bottom income quintile. Second, children from low- and
high-income families have similar earnings outcomes conditional on the college
they attend, indicating that low-income students are not mismatched at
selective colleges. Third, rates of upward mobility – the fraction of students
who come from families in the bottom income quintile and reach the top quintile
– differ substantially across colleges because low-income access varies
significantly across colleges with similar earnings outcomes. Rates of
bottom-to-top quintile mobility are highest at certain mid-tier public
universities, such as the City University of New York and California State
colleges. Rates of upper-tail (bottom quintile to top 1%) mobility are highest
at elite colleges, such as Ivy League universities. Fourth, the fraction of
students from low-income families did not change substantially between
2000-2011 at elite private colleges, but fell sharply at colleges with the
highest rates of bottom-to-top-quintile mobility. Although our descriptive
analysis does not identify colleges’ causal effects on students’ outcomes, the
publicly available statistics constructed here highlight colleges that deserve
further study as potential engines of upward mobility.
Related article by Lawrence Summers:
Friday, November 10, 2017
International Affairs - Interesting Items
The Pacific Gets a Little Bigger
Mihir Sharma notes:
“The difference
between the more commonly used "Asia-Pacific" and the new
"Indo-Pacific" is actually quite deep. Those who prefer the latter
want to stress that the great power conflicts in East, South and Southeast Asia
are essentially maritime -- over the control and openness of trade routes and
over who gets to build and secure the infrastructure through which the vast
majority of the world’s trade passes. By pushing the borders of America’s
awareness as far as India, it means that China and its concerns are no longer
at the center of U.S. strategy. And it might also reflect a desire to “bring
India permanently into the U.S. web of alliances and partnerships in the
region.””
Boris Johnson – UK’s Gaffe Prone Foreign Secretary
War Mongering in the Middle East
US and the Global Order
Corruption in Mexico
https://promarket.org/mexican-establishment-rattled-corruption-scandals-impunity-reigns/Thursday, November 9, 2017
Tax Cuts and Government Revenue – History Lessons
How to Break Out of Our Long National Tax Nightmare
Did the early 1980s Reagan tax cuts boost growth?
Taxes and Inequality
Related:
US Wage
Growth
Wednesday, November 8, 2017
Are Markets Underestimating Geopolitical Risks?
Rising Instability in the Middle East
The Real Risk to the Global Economy
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/real-risk-global-economy-by-christopher-smart-2017-11Christopher Smart suggests:
"One might assume that the brewing crises on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East pose a serious threat to the current global economic expansion. But political crises often induce only brief market corrections, whereas gradual shifts in international global institutions can be far more consequential for investor behavior."
Emerging Markets Update
Amazon in India – The Need for Local Customization
The Emerging-Market Rally Is Really Just
About Tech Shares
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-08/the-emerging-market-rally-is-really-just-about-tech-shares
China’s Gigantic Radio Dish
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/12/what-happens-if-china-makes-first-contact/544131/
Mobile Phones in Africa
https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/11/daily-chart-5Tax Debate – University Endowments, Carried Interest
University Endowments, Academic Excellence and Taxes
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/nov/08/us-universities-offshore-funds-endowments-fossil-fuels-paradise-papers
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/08/world/universities-offshore-investments.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-republicans-take-aim-at-academic-excellence/2017/11/08/eb8e9056-c4af-11e7-84bc-5e285c7f4512_story.html
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/nov/08/us-universities-offshore-funds-endowments-fossil-fuels-paradise-papers
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/08/world/universities-offshore-investments.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-republicans-take-aim-at-academic-excellence/2017/11/08/eb8e9056-c4af-11e7-84bc-5e285c7f4512_story.html
What is ‘carried interest’ and why it matters in the new
GOP tax bill
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2017/11/07/what-is-carried-interest-and-why-it-matters-in-the-new-gop-tax-bill/Tuesday, November 7, 2017
History Lesson - The 1917 Russian Revolution
Russia's Unloved
Anniversary
How Germany got the
Russian Revolution off the ground
http://www.dw.com/en/how-germany-got-the-russian-revolution-off-the-ground/a-41195312Bitcoin Valuation Debate
NYU Finance Prof. Aswath Damodaran on Bitcoin valuation:
Crypto-Currencies – An Asset Class?
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-07/are-cryptocurrencies-an-asset-class-yes-and-no
Tax Avoidance - Apple and Nike
How Apple Reduces its Tax Bill
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/06/world/apple-taxes-jersey.html
Nike's Tax Avoidance Strategy
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/nov/06/nike-tax-paradise-papers
EU - The Biggest Loser of Tax Revenues?
http://www.dw.com/en/apple-cant-move-customers-to-bermuda/a-41281917
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/06/world/apple-taxes-jersey.html
Nike's Tax Avoidance Strategy
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/nov/06/nike-tax-paradise-papers
EU - The Biggest Loser of Tax Revenues?
http://www.dw.com/en/apple-cant-move-customers-to-bermuda/a-41281917
Monday, November 6, 2017
The Supply Side Matters
Timely post from Bloomberg’s Noah Smith:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-06/how-supply-became-a-dirty-word-in-economicsA Simple Lesson in International Business – Know Your Foreign Customer
Why Aren’t U.S. Cars Popular in Japan?
ALANA SEMUELS notes:
“But protectionism
is not the full explanation for why Japanese people don’t buy foreign cars.
There are no import tariffs on cars, for example, while the U.S. and European
Union impose 2.5 percent and 10 percent tariffs. And while Japanese cars are
right-hand-drive, requiring manufacturing modifications before American cars
can be sold there, this is no different from many other markets where foreign
cars are prevalent.
Instead, the
problem is in large part that American car dealers have been hesitant to invest
in the kind of dealer network that consumers like Shujiro Urata have come to
expect. “The way Japanese consumers buy cars is very different,” Deborah Elms,
the executive director of the Asian Trade Center, told me. “Yet the Americans
have not invested in a dealer network to break into the market.””Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-11-07/the-u-s-and-japan-don-t-have-a-trade-problem
Sunday, November 5, 2017
Overcoming the Impulse to Procrastinate
The Procrastination Doom Loop—and How to
Break It by Derek Thompson
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/08/the-procrastination-loop-and-how-to-break-it/379142/Britain Needs a Reality Check
A timely piece from STEVEN ERLANGER:
“The ambitious Mr.
Johnson was crucial to the victory of Brexit in the June 2016 referendum. But
for many, the blusterings of Boris have lost their charm. The “great ship” he
loves to cite is a nationalist fantasy, a remnant of Britain’s persistent
post-imperial confusion about its proper place in the world, hanging on to
expensive symbols like a nuclear deterrent while its once glorious navy is
often incapable of patrolling its own coastline.”
Interesting Info for College Students
Myths about College Majors
Grad School Enrollments in STEM Areas
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/03/education/edlife/american-graduate-student-stem.htmlParadise Papers – Corruption in High Places
Highly revealing information involving corruption amongst
global elites gets leaked:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-41876942US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross potentially implicated in the growing global corruption scandal:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/05/world/wilbur-ross-russia.html
Why Political (In)stability Should Matter to Investors and Economists?
Recent developments in Saudi Arabia highlight the dangers
of political instability:
US-Saudi Connection:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/04/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-waleed-bin-talal.html
Saudi Crown Prince - Autocratic Tendencies
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2017/11/05/saudi-arabias-crown-prince-is-acting-like-putin/
Saudi Crown Prince - Autocratic Tendencies
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2017/11/05/saudi-arabias-crown-prince-is-acting-like-putin/
Related:
Inside Saudi Aramco's Kingdom of Oil
http://fortune.com/2017/10/24/saudi-arabia-aramco-oil/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-05/saudi-prince-s-corruption-sweep-reaches-aramco-board-council
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-05/saudi-prince-s-corruption-sweep-reaches-aramco-board-council
Social Media – A Threat to Democracy?
The Economist cover story: Once considered a boon to
democracy, social media have started to look like its nemesis
https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21730870-economy-based-attention-easily-gamed-once-considered-boon-democracy-social-mediaBad Policies and Unintended Consequences
A Broke, and Broken, Flood Insurance Program
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/04/business/a-broke-and-broken-flood-insurance-program.html
Saturday, November 4, 2017
Weekend Readings
George Will on Ron Chernow’s Biography of Ulysses S.
Grant
Tulsi Gabbard - An Interesting American Politician
History Lesson – US, UK and Post-WWII Iran Policy
https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n21/andrew-bacevich/a-prize-from-fairylandFriday, November 3, 2017
Trump and the Global Trade System
Trump's Trade Endgame Could Be the Undoing of Global Rules
Related:
US – Less Friendly Destination for Skilled Immigrants
Power Dynamics in Asia
Interesting strategic partnerships develop to counter China’s
rise:
“The good news is that
an entente has already begun to emerge among the region’s key democracies.
America’s relationship with India, in particular, has been undergoing what
Tillerson called a “profound transformation,” as the two countries become
“increasingly global partners with growing strategic convergence.” The US now
holds more joint defense exercises with India than with any other country. Such
cooperation puts the two countries in a strong position to fulfill Tillerson’s
vision of serving “as the eastern and western beacons of the Indo-Pacific.””
Related:
Related:
China-Russia Rivalry
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/03/opinion/china-russia-rivalry.htmlThursday, November 2, 2017
Wednesday, November 1, 2017
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