Attention Economy


Thursday, June 30, 2016

Gentrification and Urban Centers

What the 1880s tell us about why the rich are moving to cities today by Emily Badger
Badger notes -
“Wealthy, college-educated residents with the budget to bid up home prices are increasingly turning up in the center of major American cities, driving a generation-long shift in demand for downtown living.
The trend is notable for what preceded it: For decades, until about 1990, people with options largely dodged city centers. But if you look much further back in history, an interesting pattern emerges. More than a century ago, before the rise of electric streetcars, the Model T and modern suburbs, the rich lived in the hearts of cities and the working class farther out.
We are, perhaps, returning to that old pattern. Or, to think of history another way: What made downtowns desirable to the rich more than a century ago may help explain what makes them appealing to this same group again today.”

College Educated Workers Now Dominate US Labor Market

Interesting new findings –
“This year marked the first time college-educated workers, now 36% of the workforce, outnumbered those with a high-school degree or less. The share of the workforce with a high school diploma or less dropped to 34%, down five percentage points from 2007. That’s because the vast share of the 11.6 million jobs gained in the recovery — 73% — went to those with bachelor’s degrees or higher”
Related Report – America’s Divided Recovery: College Haves and Have-Nots, 2016
https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/Americas-Divided-Recovery-web.pdf

Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Economic Development – Need for More Holistic Measures

Social Progress Index

Critique of World Bank classification of income groups –
http://www.spiegel.de/international/tomorrow/poverty-and-the-middle-income-country-designation-a-1100176.html

The Minimum Wage Debate - Local Cost of Living Matters

A good piece by Megan McArdle –

Related:
http://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2016/06/the-minimum-wage-debate.html

Too Many Brits Applying for Irish Passport

Funny but true – Britons swamp Ireland with passport applications
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/27/financial-times-britons-swamp-ireland-with-passport-applications.html

Rise in Anti-Immigration Sentiment - It’s Not Really about Economics

A thoughtful piece from Greg Ip of WSJ: What Really Drives Anti-Immigration Feelings
“Yet the link between economic circumstances and acceptance of immigrants is surprisingly weak. In fact, the current backlash against immigration has less to do with jobs and wages and more to do with concerns about national identity and control of borders, research suggests.
This is an important distinction. Immigration is different from other facets of globalization. Foreign-born people affect the makeup of society in a way that a foreign-made car or a foreign-owned factory doesn’t.
By yoking those issues together, populists have leveraged anxiety about immigration into a broader attack on globalization and elites, as advocates of Britain’s departure from the European Union did so successfully in last week’s referendum. Britons would have no doubt stayed in the EU’s single market for goods, services and capital if they could opt out of the single market in labor. But that option wasn’t available, and as a result the EU is about to lose one of its biggest members.”

Go East

Mark Mobius recommends that investors look to the East:
“Go East — Far East — global investing guru Mark Mobius is telling investors, saying the U.K. vote to leave the European Union will hasten the swing of the "center of gravity" to Asia.”

Monday, June 27, 2016

American Politics - Past, Present and the Future

The Atlantic on US Politics – How American Politics Went Insane
“Chaos syndrome is a chronic decline in the political system’s capacity for self-organization. It begins with the weakening of the institutions and brokers—political parties, career politicians, and congressional leaders and committees—that have historically held politicians accountable to one another and prevented everyone in the system from pursuing naked self-interest all the time. As these intermediaries’ influence fades, politicians, activists, and voters all become more individualistic and unaccountable. The system atomizes. Chaos becomes the new normal—both in campaigns and in the government itself.”

Related:
HOW TO STEAL AN ELECTION: The crazy history of nominating Conventions by Jill Lepore


Global Economy – Still Stuck in a Rut

Brexit reinforces existing headwinds affecting the global economy –
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/28/upshot/brexit-is-strengthening-the-forces-that-already-haunt-the-global-economy.html

England’s Woes Continue

England lose to Iceland in Euro 2016. England has not won a knockout stage game since 2006.

England credit rating cut –

John Oliver on Brexit

Modern South Asia – Book Recommendations

Two important recent books –
India's War: World War II and the Making of Modern South Asia by Srinath Raghavan
India at War: The Subcontinent and the Second World War by Yasmin Khan

Related: Book review by noted historian Adam Tooze
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-road-to-britains-retreat-1466799134

Are Voters Rational?

Brexit is a reminder that some things just shouldn’t be decided by referendum – Washington Post

A scary finding from UK –
“One of the reasons it's gotten harder for experts -- pollsters, bookmakers, economic modelers -- to predict election outcomes is that too many people make up their minds too late. According to a recent report by the market research firm Opinium, 20 percent to 30 percent of voters make a final decision within a week of casting their ballots, half of them on the day of the vote. In the U.K., a lot of these last-minute deciders are swayed by the tabloid press.
The Sun has a perfect record of backing the winning side in every election and referendum in the U.K. has had. ...
Reeves and his collaborators formulated a "theory of naïve preferences," versus "enlightened preferences," to explain how it happens. "Persons who have naïve preferences have values grounded in issues other than ideologies or policy positions, typically involving perceived charisma or competence," they wrote. "Sun readers are less politically knowledgeable and have weaker commitments to particular ideologies and are therefore more likely to exhibit naïve preferences than other newspaper readers." These same readers could probably be persuaded to vote "remain."”


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Meanwhile, European cities are competing to attract financial sector firms looking to decamp from London –
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-27/brexit-boon-seen-for-european-cities-poaching-london-bankers

Saturday, June 25, 2016

Fiction for Economists and Futurists

The Mandibles: A Family, 2029-2047 by Lionel Shriver

The Economist review
“Drawing on Ms Shriver’s interest in the financial crisis of 2008 and global demography (an essay she wrote for Macmillan’s “Encyclopedia of Population” was recently reprinted as the lead article in the Population and Development Review) and the financial crisis of 2008, “The Mandibles” presents a bleak future for America. The GDP of Mexico is bigger than that of its northern neighbour and it arms its border to keep “Ameri-trash” out; the United States forces its citizens to be microchipped to ensure the people pay their taxes. Myanmar, meanwhile, looks to America for cheap labour, and white American women undergo facial surgery to resemble the Asians buying up half of Brooklyn.”

Gas Guzzlers Back in Vogue

From NYT - Americans Regain Their Appetite for Gas Guzzlers
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/28/science/cars-gas-global-warming.html

Friday, June 24, 2016

The Mystery of Democracy

English Historian Timothy Garton Ash states:
“A universal truth: nobody knows what is going to happen but everyone can explain it afterwards. If just 3% of the more than 33 million Brits who voted in this referendum had gone the other way, you would now be reading endless articles explaining how it was, after all, “the economy, stupid”, how British pragmatism finally won through, etc. So beware the illusions of retrospective determinism. There is always a mystery in how millions of individual voters make up their minds. It is the mystery of democracy.”


Harvard economist Ken Rogoff critiques the UK referendum process –
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brexit-democratic-failure-for-uk-by-kenneth-rogoff-2016-06


Prognosticators got it wrong –
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-24/they-got-it-wrong-swarms-of-global-chatterers-misread-brexit

Brexit and Financial Market Reaction

An interesting case study – Short-term market reaction to a surprise

Economic and financial uncertainty rise in the aftermath of the Brexit vote
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/upshot/what-to-watch-for-in-trading-after-shock-of-brexit.html

Political Fallout from Brexit

David Cameron to resign as Prime Minister of UK

EU reaction –
Scotland may leave UK
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36621030

Brexit Stunner

UK votes for Brexit and the British Pound Collapses -
“Britain has voted to leave the EU in a popular revolt that will send shockwaves across Europe, leaving David Cameron’s premiership hanging in the balance and triggering financial market turmoil across the globe.
On a night of high drama, Mr Cameron’s hopes of securing a Remain vote evaporated as working class voters turned out in huge numbers to deliver a stunning rebuke to the establishment and the status quo.”

Potential Economic Consequences for Britain and the EU
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/70d0bfd8-d1b3-11e5-831d-09f7778e7377.html

Related:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/britain-votes-for-brexit-eu-referendum-david-cameron
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-23/pound-tumbles-on-results-from-northeast-england-in-eu-referendum
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In hindsight, it is astonishing how complacent markets and experts were about the possibility of a vote for Brexit.

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Quantum Mechanics and the Future of Computing

An informative piece – How Quantum Mechanics Could Be Even Weirder by Philip Ball
“Why doesn’t the world make sense? At the fundamental level of atoms and subatomic particles, the familiar “classical” physics that accounts for how objects move around gives way to quantum physics, with new rules that defy intuition. Traditionally these are expressed as paradoxes: particles that can be in two places at once, cats that are simultaneously alive and dead, apparently impossible faster-than-light signaling between distant particles. But quantum rules are perfectly logical and consistent—the “paradoxes” are the result of our trying to impose on them the everyday reasoning of classical physics.
What’s more, over the past several decades we’ve come to understand that the classical and quantum worlds don’t exactly operate by “different” rules. Rather, the classical world emerges from the quantum in a comprehensible way: you might say that classical physics is simply what quantum physics looks like at the human scale.”

Top Asian Universities - 2016 Rankings

The Economic Cost of Raising a Child

An interesting tool from the US Department of Agriculture (via WSJ):
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/06/22/how-much-does-it-cost-to-raise-a-child/

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Good News - Global Poverty and Inequality Are Declining

Noah Smith on global inequality

Related: http://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2016/06/globalization-and-inequality.html

In the US, the upper-middle class is doing well
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/06/21/not-just-the-1-the-upper-middle-class-is-larger-and-richer-than-ever/

Corruption - A Global Challenge

An interesting piece on urban corruption:
“As cities continue to expand and proliferate, demand for urban land, and thus its value, is set to increase sharply. Dieter Zinnbauer, of Transparency International, believes that we may be moving towards an urban land “resource curse” – a phrase normally associated with countries laden with so much mineral wealth that rulers have little need to establish a tax base and thus prove themselves accountable to citizens, but which Zinnbauer fears could soon apply to cities too and be responsible for driving further corruption in the years to come.”

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Ukraine Attempts to Reduce Rampant Corruption
http://www.spiegel.de/international/tomorrow/ukraine-seeks-to-eliminate-rampant-corruption-a-1096984.html

Sunday, June 19, 2016

Saturday, June 18, 2016

The Law School Bubble has Burst

There are clear indications that the law degree bubble has burst - 
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/19/business/dealbook/an-expensive-law-degree-and-no-place-to-use-it.html

Driverless Trucks and Jobs

An interesting piece - Self-driving trucks: what's the future for America's 3.5 million truckers?
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/17/self-driving-trucks-impact-on-drivers-jobs-us
“Driverless trucks will be safer and cheaper than their human-controlled counterparts, but that doesn’t mean America’s 3.5 million professional truck drivers are giving up to the machines without a fight.
Across the US, truckers collectively haul more than 10bn tons of freight each year, but it’s a tough job – the hours are long and lonely, the pay is low and the lifestyle is sedentary. In many ways it’s a job ripe for disruption; robots v truckers.”

Rajan and Indian Monetary Policymaking

Profile on RBI Governor Rajan
http://mintonsunday.livemint.com/news/the-economics-of-raghuram-rajan/1.1.5550749.html

RBI Governor Rajan’s Fight Against Crony Capitalism

Causes of Sluggish Economic Growth

Harvard economist details the causes sluggish US economic growth
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/19/upshot/one-economic-sickness-five-diagnoses.html

Canada – Beware the Oil Resource Curse

Economist Noah Smith wonders if Canada is overly reliant on the oil sector
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-17/canada-flirts-with-the-petrostate-trap

Management versus Philosophy

A 2006 piece from The Atlantic that is still relevant - The Management Myth
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/06/the-management-myth/304883/

Thursday, June 16, 2016

The Truth About Trade

Dartmouth economist Douglas Irwin’s Foreign Affairs article is a must read – The Truth About Trade: What Critics Get Wrong About the Global Economy
“Blaming other countries for the United States’ economic woes is an age-old tradition in American politics; if truth is the first casualty of war, then support for free trade is often an early casualty of an election campaign. But the bipartisan bombardment has been so intense this time, and has been so unopposed, that it raises real questions about the future of U.S. global economic leadership.”

The Power Paradox

Nigeria Abandons its Currency Peg

Nigeria finally abandons its overvalued currency peg –

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Sen on Brexit and the Future of Europe

Nobel Prize winning economist Amartya Sen states –
“We live in a thoroughly interdependent world, nowhere more so than in Europe. The contemporary prosperity of Europe – and elsewhere, too – draws on extensive use of economic interconnections. While the unacceptable poverty and inequality that persist in much of the world, including Britain, certainly call for better-thought-out public engagement, the problems can be addressed better without getting isolated from the largest economy next door. The remarkable joint statement aired recently, by a surprisingly large number of British economists, of many different schools, that Brexit would be an enormous economic folly, reflects an appreciation of this glaring reality. Apart from trade and economic exchange with Europe itself, Britain is currently included in a large number of global agreements as a part of the European Union. Britain can do a lot – for itself and for Europe – to correct some of the big mistakes of European economic policies.”

Related:
NYT’s Roger Cohen on threats to EU –

Europe and Brexit
http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/does-europe-need-brexit

Universal Basic Income

THE CASE FOR FREE MONEY by James Surowiecki
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/06/20/why-dont-we-have-universal-basic-income

The Economist has published a useful briefing on a highly controversial topic:
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21699910-arguments-state-stipend-payable-all-citizens-are-being-heard-more-widely-sighing

Update:
Charles Murray on universal basic income:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-guaranteed-income-for-every-american-1464969586

Weak States and Fragile Democracies

Weak States and Exogenous Shocks

Sunday, June 12, 2016

Technology and the Future of Agriculture

A fascinating special report from The Economist:
http://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2016-06-09/factory-fresh

Since all humans have to eat, this is a report that everyone should find interesting.

Natural Rate of Interest

Debate surrounding the natural rate of interest at the Fed:
Fed Decision Makers Wrestle with So-called Natural Rate
Most economists figured the natural rate was around 2% just before the financial crisis. Today, seven years after the recession, most estimates are around or just below zero.

Educational Opportunities and Inequality in China

China struggles to deal with the educational opportunities gap between rural and urban areas
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/world/asia/china-higher-education-for-the-poor-protests.html

Friday, June 10, 2016

A Reality on Check on Housing Affordability

Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Shiller notes:
“Rising home prices set off fears that real estate will become even more expensive, making it impossible ever to buy a home in a given city. It’s easy to understand how such worries spread, but the historical record suggests that these fears are generally exaggerated.”

Related:
http://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2016/06/nimby-to-yimby-sfs-housing-crisis.html

Update -
Silicon Valley struggles with exorbitant rent
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/technology/in-silicon-valley-suburbs-calls-to-limit-the-soaring-rents.html

Key Debates Involving Science [MUST READ]

A timely and extremely important piece by Dr. Gawande:
THE MISTRUST OF SCIENCE by Atul Gawande [Caltech Commencement Address]
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-mistrust-of-science
Dr. Gawande notes -
“The scientific orientation has proved immensely powerful. It has allowed us to nearly double our lifespan during the past century, to increase our global abundance, and to deepen our understanding of the nature of the universe. Yet scientific knowledge is not necessarily trusted. Partly, that’s because it is incomplete. But even where the knowledge provided by science is overwhelming, people often resist it—sometimes outright deny it. Many people continue to believe, for instance, despite massive evidence to the contrary, that childhood vaccines cause autism (they do not); that people are safer owning a gun (they are not); that genetically modified crops are harmful (on balance, they have been beneficial); that climate change is not happening (it is).
The sociologist Gordon Gauchat studied U.S. survey data from 1974 to 2010 and found some deeply alarming trends. Despite increasing education levels, the public’s trust in the scientific community has been decreasing. This is particularly true among conservatives, even educated conservatives. In 1974, conservatives with college degrees had the highest level of trust in science and the scientific community. Today, they have the lowest.”

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Related -
THE PERILS AND PROMISES OF GENE-DRIVE TECHNOLOGY by Michael Specter
http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-perils-and-promises-of-gene-drive-technology

Globalization and Inequality

CIP and Global Currency Markets

The Covered Interest Parity (CIP) may not hold:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-09/a-breakdown-in-old-rules-leads-to-a-rethink-on-how-global-markets-work

Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Labor Market Update

US Job Openings Reach Highest Level Since 2000

Does a CFA certification Matter?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-08/cfa-payoff-elusive-for-legions-crowding-into-its-grueling-exams

Technology and Jobs
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/08/business/economy/threatened-by-machines-a-once-stupid-concern-gains-respect.html

Why Foreign Developmental Aid is So Ineffective?

International Affairs – Key Readings

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's address to the US Congress:
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/qUX4C8uahTQqqEz28mCNpN/Full-text-of-Narendra-Modis-address-to-the-joint-session-of.html

WSJ op-ed: Breaking the Pakistan-Taliban Alliance by ZALMAY KHALILZAD
KHALILZAD notes:
“My view was that Pakistan was playing a perfidious and dangerous double game and needed to be called on it. But because of factors such as the (actual or supposed) important Pakistani contribution to the fight against al Qaeda, Pakistan’s role as transit route for supplies to our troops in Afghanistan, and its own (however halfhearted) campaign against Pakistani Islamist extremists—senior U.S. officials either ignored evidence of Pakistani support for the Afghan Taliban or treated it as a cost worth tolerating. One result: Senior Taliban leaders were soon living openly in Pakistani cities like Peshawar, Karachi and Quetta….
The U.S. currently designates Pakistan as a “major non-NATO ally”—a status wholly inappropriate given that its current policy and conduct would better merit its inclusion on the State Department’s list of state-sponsors of terrorism.”

Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Paper Wealth - A Reality Check

Theranos founder’s rise and fall provides an interesting case study –
“Forbes made quite a stir last week, by reporting that it had cut the estimated net worth of Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes from $4.5 billion to…zero. Since Forbes is widely regarded as the authority on the size of private fortunes, this was a dramatic move. How could so much wealth disappear so fast?
One reason is that wealth represents a guess about the value of future earnings. When Theranos’ blood-testing technology was found not to fulfill its early promise -- some suggested it was fraudulent to begin with -- people realized that the company wouldn’t have nearly as much earnings power as expected. That sharply cut the value of the company. Since so much of Holmes’ wealth was tied up in her own company’s stock, that meant she got much poorer.”

Monday, June 6, 2016

Debt Industry in America

Another great piece from John Oliver

Denmark's Experiment with Negative Rates

Negative rates in Denmark - An interesting case study
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-06/denmark-land-below-zero-where-negative-interest-rates-are-normal

Why Smart People Do Dumb Things

An excellent piece – Why do smart people do stupid things? It’s simple by Andre Spicer
“For more than a decade, Mats Alvesson and I have been studying smart organisations employing smarter people. We were constantly surprised by the ways that these intelligent people ended up doing the most unintelligent things. We found mature adults enthusiastically participating in leadership development workshops that wouldn’t be out of place in a pre-school class; executives who paid more attention to overhead slides than to careful analysis; senior officers in the armed forces who preferred to run rebranding exercises than military exercises; headteachers who were more interested in creating strategies than educating students; engineers who focused more on telling good news stories than solving problems; and healthcare workers who spent more time ticking boxes than caring for patients. No wonder so many of these intelligent people described their jobs as being dumb.”