'The Simpsons' Pick the Nobel Prize Winner in Economics

At the beginning of the season premiere (22nd season) episode of 'The Simpsons' (one of America's greatest contributions to the world), the winner of Nobel Prize in Economics is announced ... Lisa Simpson and her nerdy friends are staying up into the wee hours of the morning to catch the live announcement of the Nobel Prizes. It is a great choice.

See the 'The Simpsons' Episode here:
http://www.fox.com/thesimpsons/full-episodes/617906569001/elementary-school-musical


For the real world Nobel Prize in Economics, we have to wait until Oct 11th.

China and Japan – Cannot Stand One Another Yet Cannot Stay Away From Each Other

As Japan declines and as China rises, the relationship between the two is increasingly affected by mutual distrust. Yet, economically speaking, the two largest Asian economies (and the world's second and third largest economies) are closely intertwined.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/30/business/global/30spree.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/27/world/asia/27japan.html

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703374104575336341736483692.html

Wall Street is Starting to Realize that Macroeconomics Matters

Equity traders are increasingly focusing their attention on macro forces ... apparently, ignoring the broader viewpoint on the American and the global economy is not a reasonable stance anymore. If business schools and finance departments come to the same realization, it may help future generations of traders and market participants.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704190704575489743387052652.html
Interesting Quote from the WSJ article:
"Stock pickers say macro forces began moving stocks in a big way during the 2008 financial crisis, and that has continued this year following the European debt crisis. Traders also are focusing on the potential for a double-dip recession to hit corporate profits; on government deficits; and especially on what central banks will do about stimulus programs that pumped cash into the economy".

Finally, A Well Reasoned Piece on the China-US Imbalances

Stephen Roach provides an excellent analysis on the China-US trade and current account imbalances (hope Prof. Kurgman reads it)

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/29/opinion/29roach.html

BRIC News

Concerns About Brazil's Likely Next President:
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/09/28/is-brazil-s-next-president-a-dangerous-amateur.print.html

Growing Attractiveness of Emerging Market Bonds
http://www.businessweek.com/print/investor/content/sep2010/pi20100928_286951.htm

India Opens Up Infrastructure Financing:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2010-09-28/rupee-power-bond-yields-fall-to-one-month-low-as-cap-lifted-india-credit.html

China - Currency Wars
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/27/opinion/27kaletsky.html

China and the IPhone:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/23/technology/23iphone.html

Privacy vs. Security Debate

The NY Times article (U.S. Tries to Make It Easier to Wiretap the Internet, Sept 27, 2010) states:
"Essentially, [US] officials want Congress to require all services that enable communications — including encrypted e-mail transmitters like BlackBerry, social networking Web sites like Facebook and software that allows direct “peer to peer” messaging like Skype — to be technically capable of complying if served with a wiretap order. The mandate would include being able to intercept and unscramble encrypted messages".

A Different NY Times article ("Critics Say India’s Spy Plan Deters Businesses") states that critics are unhappy with India's policy requiring greater access to encrypted info:
"Critics, though, say India’s campaign to monitor data transmission within its borders will hurt another important national goal: attracting global businesses and becoming a hub for technology innovation.
The most inflammatory part of the effort has been India’s threat to block encrypted BlackBerry services widely used by corporations unless phone companies provide access to the data in a readable format. But Indian officials have also said they will seek greater access to encrypted data sent over popular Internet services like Gmail, Skype and virtual private networks that enable users to bypass traditional telephone links or log in remotely to corporate computer systems."


I can't see the difference between what the US is planning to do and what India is trying to do ... so wouldn't businesses be affected in both countries? 

 

Inequality in the US - Perception vs. Reality

Many Americans don't realize the extent of inequality in the US. Here is an interesting chart from a recent study by Norton and Ariely:

Global Financial Centers

New Centers of Wealth Management
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/23/business/global/23swiss.html

World Financial Centers

http://www.forbes.com/2010/07/13/asia-financial-centers-markets-economy-ranking.html

Will Shanghai Overtake Hong Kong as a Financial Center?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/25/AR2010092501884.html

Finance Jobs
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/02/business/global/02jobs.html

Extraordinary Translation Project

The Clay Institute is working to translate the greatest Sanskrit writings.
http://www.claysanskritlibrary.org/
(General Editor - Prof. Sheldon Pollock, the William B. Ransford Professor of Sanskrit and South Asian Studies at Columbia University) 




Many of the major historical works have already been translated:
http://www.claysanskritlibrary.org/volumes_all.php

The Future is Here

Futuristic Cyber Warfare - Not Limited to the Sci-Fi Realm Anymore:
http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2010/09/stuxnet/

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9185919/Is_Stuxnet_the_best_malware_ever_

International Economics Issues

Trade Basics:

http://blogs.forbes.com/stuartanderson/2010/09/24/new-political-ads-watched-on-chinese-made-tvs-condemn-ohio-voters-for-buying-chinese-made-tvs/

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703556604575502242470950572.html

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/new/blogs/bhagwati/Chinabashing

EU’s Secret Committee to Save the Euro:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703467004575464113605731560.html

Thomas Hoenig - A Lone Voice of Reason at the Fed?

Here is an interesting profile of Thomas Hoenig:
http://www.businessweek.com/print/magazine/content/10_40/b4197074540076.htm

For those interested in the structure of the Federal Reserve,

Emerging Market News

Silicon Valley-India Connections
http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/print/6509 

ISB – One of India’s Top Business Schools – Has a Fascinating Venture to Help Enterprises in Emerging Markets

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/62c78454-c0ab-11df-94f9-00144feab49a.html

HSBC’s Stephen King States that China Should Ignore US Pleas on Currency Appreciation

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d78229b2-c41f-11df-b827-00144feab49a.html

Burger King’s Brazilian Connection

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2010-09-20/lemann-takes-burger-king-after-rise-to-brazil-billionaire-from-joe-schmo-.html

NBER finally Announces the End Date for the Great Recession

NBER announced that the recent recession officially ended in June 2009. 

NOTE: The media description of a recession as at least two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is only a general rule of thumb and not the official definition of a recession in the US. In the US, the NBER officially designates business cycle dates and uses a broad definition to define a recession.

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion”

                                                                                                 -  NBER

Variables considered by NBER include:

quarterly estimate of real Gross Domestic Product (and the quarterly estimate of real Gross Domestic Income)

 payroll employment measure

 real personal income less transfer payments

 real manufacturing and wholesale-retail trade sales

 industrial production

employment estimates based on the household survey

In modern times, the 2007-2009 recession was the longest recession since the Great Depression!!

Climate Change - In Geological Time

Robert B. Laughlin’s What the Earth Knows (American Scholar, Summer 2010) is a fascinating and thought provoking piece. Laughlin considers climate and environmental changes from a truly long-term perspective.

http://www.theamericanscholar.org/what-the-earth-knows/print/
He examines climate change from the perspective of geological time. To help the reader understand the concept of geological time, Laughlin notes:

"Geologic time is such a vast concept that it’s helpful to convert it to something more pedestrian just to get oriented. I like rainfall.

•                The total precipitation that falls on the world in one year is about one meter of rain, the height of a golden retriever.

•                The total amount of rain that has fallen on the world since the industrial revolution began is about 200 meters, the height of Hoover Dam.

•                The amount of rain that has fallen on the world since the time of Moses is enough to fill up all the oceans.

•                The amount of rain that has fallen on the world since the Ice Age ended is enough to fill up all the oceans four times.

•                The amount of rain that has fallen on the world since the dinosaurs died is enough to fill up all the oceans 20,000 times—or the entire volume of the earth three times.

•                The amount of rain that has fallen on the world since coal formed is enough to fill up the earth 15 times.

•                The amount of rain that has fallen on the world since oxygen formed is enough to fill the earth 100 times."

Also, see this interesting piece on geo-engineering:

http://www.theamericanscholar.org/prozac-for-the-planet/print/

Global Business - An Interesting Example

A great example of the complex international ties that exist in the global business arena today is provided by the Bharti-Airtel and IBM partnership. India's largest mobile operator, Bharti-Airtel, outsourced its IT operations to IBM in 2004. The partnership has been quite successful so far. Recently, Bharti-Airtel purchased the African wireless telecom operations of Zain (a Kuwait-based firm). Not surprisingly, IBM has won the contract to provide and support the IT backbone for Bharti-Airtel's newly acquired Africa operations.

So, in essence, you have an Indian mobile services company outsourcing the IT operations of its recently acquired wireless telecom interests in Africa (which were purchased from a Kuwaiti firm) to an American multinational.
http://www.livemint.com/Articles/PrintArticle.aspx?artid=FD352A46-C290-11DF-BE6F-000B5DABF613

Asia - Cities, Trains, Population Growth, etc

China’s Major Cities - Super-Sizing the Cities
http://www.economist.com/node/17043174/print

Chinese Rich Enter London Real Estate Market
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/18/business/global/18chinareal.html
China Moves up the Value Added Chain
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/16/business/global/16factory.html

Top Ten Indian Rail Journeys
http://www.guardian.co.uk/travel/2010/sep/17/top-10-indian-train-journeys-rail/print

Rapidly Declining Fertility in NIEs (Newly Industrialized Economies of Asia)
http://www.economist.com/node/17039131/print

Bloom Energy – A Potential Solution for Global Energy Problems?

Bloom Energy has developed a rather stunning technology that may solve many of the energy problems facing the world today.
http://blogs.forbes.com/kerrydolan/2010/09/14/bloom-energy-a-billion-dollar-company-says-new-report/

Check out this CBS 60 Minutes piece on the Bloom Box:
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6228923n&tag=contentMain;contentBody

Financial World

Financial Sector’s Push for Speed:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0927/outfront-netscape-jim-barksdale-daniel-spivey-wall-street-speed-war_print.html
A Great Quote from the Article (Wall Street's Speed War, Forbes):
Three milliseconds is three one-thousandths of a second. Does that really matter? "That's close to an eternity in automated trading," says Ben Van Vliet, a professor at the Illinois Institute of Technology. "This is all about picking gold coins up off the floor--only the fastest person is going to get the coins."

Is CAPM Relevant?
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0927/finance-david-dreman-fixed-income-watch-debunking-beta_print.html

Forex Market Interventions - The Japanese Yen Case

Forex Intervention to Prop  Up the Japanese Yen

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/16/business/global/16yen.html

A note: If past interventions are any indication, then uncoordinated (there is no ECB or Fed support so far) intervention by BOJ/Ministry of Finance is doomed to fail.

From CNBC World, a quick analysis of last night's action:

In a related note,

Strong Yen Boosts Japanese Outbound Investments

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/15/business/global/15rakuten.html

The Tax Hike Debate

Harvard Economist Barro is opposed to any marginal tax rate hikes:
http://www.aei.org/article/102520

A study by Moody's finds that the rich are more influenced by business cycle developments rather than tax rate changes
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-09-14/america-s-wealthy-save-tax-cuts-rather-than-spend-moody-s-says.html

Zhejiang Geely - A New Global Automaker?

Zhejiang Geely, the new owner of Volvo and one of China's largest domestic manufacturer, is planning to rapidly expand its production capacity.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39162187
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2010-08-25/geely-auto-first-half-net-income-rises-35-expects-27-annual-profit-gain.html

University Rankings - By Recruiters

WSJ undertakes an interesting exercise by having corporate recruiters rank universities:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703597204575483730506372718.html




Meanwhile,
News Alert! There is another minority group (Asian Americans) in the US afterall. Given the standard mainstream reporting of most statistics on the basis of a three group breakdown - Whites, African-Americans, and Hispanics - it is nice to see a report on how Asian Americans are faring:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703466704575489573310055484.html 

Real Exchange Rates

While far too much attention is devoted to nominal exchange rates, it is often the real exchange rate that is of greater consequence. If one focuses too much on the significance of China's inflexible yuan nominal exchange rate, it may lead to the impression that China's real exchange rate is stationary or even irrelevant (which would be a false impression). Inflation is ramping up (see this story in today's NY Times) in China and this is clearly going to lead to a real appreciation (see below for the relationship between real and nominal exchange rates; P is domestic price level and PFor is the foreign price level).

e = (enom P)/PFor

In growth rate form,
Δe/e = Δenom/enom + ΔP/P – ΔPFor/PFor  

US Pay Growth During the Noughties

Top Percentage Gainers in Pay from 2000 to 2009 (US Bureau of Labor Statistics via Businessweek)

http://www.businessweek.com/print/magazine/content/10_38/b4195076454423.htm

Quick Note:

US IT Sector Workers – Apparently, Not Headed to the Poorhouse

Computer and information systems managers: $113,720 (44% gain)

Computer software engineers, systems software: $93,470 (34% gain)

Computer systems analysts: $77,080 (30% gain)

Computer software engineers, applications: $87,480 (29% gain)

Computer programmers: $70,940 (23% gain)

US - Interesting Items

Ultra Low Interest Rates - Is it Hurting or Helping Households?
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/09/business/economy/09rates.html

What Should the Fed Do Next?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704358904575477580959771188.html

The Genteel Nation by DAVID BROOKS

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/10/opinion/10brooks.html

Rise of the Big Government – In Rather Unexpected Ways

http://www.newsweek.com/2010/09/04/zakaria-why-america-overreacted-to-9-11.print.html

Poor Performance of US High Schools - Highlighting a Much Ignored Factor

http://www.newsweek.com/2010/09/06/school-reform-and-student-motivation.print.html

Turkey - An Interesting Emerging Market

Turkey's Recent Economic Performance Has Been Exceptional.

Despite Good Macro Performance, Turkey's Political Economy is Getting Complicated:

Erdogan's Business Elite

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/62814116/

http://www.newsweek.com/2010/09/11/should-turkey-s-erdogan-worry-the-west.print.html

UPDATE:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2010-09-12/turks-approve-amendments-to-extend-erdogan-s-control-over-courts-military.html

Technology, Productivity, Job Losses & Inequality - It is a Complicated World

Information Technology, Productivity, and Income Inequality

http://www.economist.com/node/16990700/print

New research confirms what had been noted by some economists earlier. See for instance:

http://www.columbia.edu/~jb38/papers/pdf/technology_not_globalization.pdf

Pepsi vs. Coke in India

There are advantages to being an early entrant in a rapidly growing emerging market:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2010-09-08/coke-is-the-soda-that-can-t-speak-its-name-in-india-as-pepsi-enters-hindi.html

Green Energy Politics

US unhappy because China is going green (too quickly) ...

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/09/business/global/09trade.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2010-09-09/china-clean-energy-aid-to-draw-complaint-by-u-s-steelworkers.html
(A quick note: Calls for protection from (foreign) competition is nothing new. Here is a brilliant (tongue in cheek) petition from Frederic Bastiat from the 1800s: http://bastiat.org/en/petition.html)


European Experience with Energy Subsidies:
http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/08/18/18greenwire-spains-solar-market-crash-offers-a-cautionary-88308.html
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/06/17/spain_sustainability_scam/ 
http://www.juandemariana.org/pdf/090327-employment-public-aid-renewable.pdf

Europe's not so green subsidies:
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/28/europes-enduring-coal-subsidies 

A few simple questions for US policymakers:
In 2009 (according to US Census Bureau Statistics on Foreign Trade) US imports of petroleum and related products was around $253.7 billion. Would you rather be importing wind turbines and solar panels or crude oil?
Are US customers (businesses and households) negatively affected by receiving low cost solar panels and wind turbines?
Is it a bad thing for say Google, a major energy consumer (think massive data centers), to get cheaper and cleaner energy (which would allow the company to devote more funds to investing in core areas)?

Also, given the sudden fervor for following international trade laws, one wonders if GM/Chrysler bailout, Wall Street bailout, infrastructure subsidies, US farm subsidies, ethanol subsidies, etc., are pro-free trade moves?

The Two-Track US Economy

Globally oriented US businesses are doing quite well whereas domestically focused businesses are struggling.

Skilled vs. Unskilled Workers

The skill premium is likely to persist in the labor market going forward.

Other Labor Market News:
A neat graphic from the WSJ on job losses/gains in various sectors

Is structural unemployment on the rise? Growing debate over the causes of unemployment - Is the high unemployment rate largely due to an aggregate demand shortfall, or, are there growing mismatches in the labor market?

Fortune Magazine lists the fastest growing jobs in the US.

Global Economy - Status Check

Prominent Economists Consider Status of the Global Economy (while hanging out at Lake Cuomo)

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100903/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_double_dip_recession

Roubini (aka Dr. Doom) provides his usual cheery outlook:

2010 August US Unemployment Report

BLS August Report
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Australia - An Advanced Economy that Benefits Enormously from China's Growth

Australia, which sends around a quarter of its exports to China, has managed to avoid a significant slowdown during the recent global financial crisis. Australia's rich resource sector, and the insatiable demand for those resources from China, India and the rest of Asia, prevented the country from falling into a recession.

Australia's July 2010 Unemployment Rate: 5.2 %
US August 2010 Unemployment Rate: 9.6%

While US Federal Funds Rate Target has been kept at 0 - 0.25% (since Dec 2008), Australian rates are now at 4.5%.

Data Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

Businessweek has an interesting cover story on Australia's growing dependence on China
http://www.businessweek.com/print/magazine/content/10_37/b4194044972388.htm

Why China (Unlike India) Is So Good At Massive Infrastructure Projects

While Beijing impressed the world during the 2008 Olympics, India is struggling to get its act together for the 2010 Commonwealth Games. Though the two countries have similar levels of corruption, China appears to accomplish far more than India.
http://www.livemint.com/Articles/PrintArticle.aspx?artid=ADB97C8A-B686-11DF-8344-000B5DABF613

Auto Sales - A Mature Market vs. An Emerging Market

US
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67T3DN20100901

India
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE6800IE20100901
Analysis of Major Indian Automakers (from Nomura)
http://www.nomura.com/research/GetPub.aspx?pid=389432

India, China, US and the Indian Ocean

Here is an interesting piece by Dean Cheng of the The Heritage Foundation:
http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2010/pdf/hl1163.pdf

The abstract from Cheng's "China’s View of South Asia and the Indian Ocean":
The Indian Ocean is becoming increasingly important to China’s economic and security interests. China appears to be pursuing what has been widely characterized as a “string of pearls” strategy of cultivating India’s neighbors as friendly states, both to protect its economic and security interests and to balance a “rising India.” With Chinese influence in the region growing, it is essential that the U.S. not fall behind in the Indian Ocean, but maintain a steady presence in the region, both to signal its resolve to stay engaged and to avoid the difficulties of reentering a region.

Equity and Bond Market Performance in Emerging Markets

Equities
Equities in Emerging Markets are trading at the highest valuations relative to advanced-country shares since June 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-01/this-time-seen-different-with-emerging-markets-surpassing-developed-world.html

According to Bloomberg, the top ten world’s best-performing major benchmark equity indexes last month were in developing countries.

But equities in the BRICs aren't doing as well as other emerging markets
http://www.livemint.com/Articles/PrintArticle.aspx?artid=DB726222-B681-11DF-8344-000B5DABF613

Is it time to sell or is it time to buy? 

Bonds
Dollar denominated bond sales from Emerging Markets grow dramatically as borrowing costs decline
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2010-09-01/emerging-market-bond-sales-doubled-in-august-on-dollar-yields-below-local.html

An interesting graph on bond spreads (yield difference relative to US Treasuries)

 http://www.dismal.com/dismal/graphs/blog/cli_090210_1b.GIF
(Graph Link forwarded by C. Lykes)   

Christina Romer's Economic Status Update

The outgoing Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers to the President, Prof. Christina Romer, provides her take on recent economic challenges here:
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/295277-1

Emerging Markets Bolster US Manufacturing & Agricultural Sectors

It is worth noting that US manufacturing and US agricultural sectors are doing quite well.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-01/ism-index-of-manufacturing-in-u-s-increased-more-than-forecast-in-august.html

http://www.fas.usda.gov/cmp/outlook/2010/August-10/Fy%202011%20Overview.pdf

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/01/business/economy/01exports.html


Booming infrastructure spending and consumption growth in emerging markets has a lot to do with it. China, which has limited arable land, is set to become the second biggest importer of US agricultural products.

Jobs, Jobs

The US labor market - fundamentally transformed?
A great graphic from today's NYT http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/01/us/01jobs.html

The article appears to overemphasize the fact that some of the jobs being created  are in lower wage sectors. Not surprisingly, finance and construction saw some of the biggest declines. In fact, it is healthy for the US to undergo a structural change that shifts the economy away from an excessive reliance on finance and construction. It is worth noting that the manufacturing sector is doing alright.

An interesting aside:
The increase in new regulations is creating lots of new jobs in regulatory agencies:
http://www.businessweek.com/print/magazine/content/10_36/b4193023855383.htm

Is China Likely to Achieve a Soft-Landing?

The Chinese government, which has been focused on tempering economic growth to ease asset price valuation increases and inflationary concerns, appears to have engineered a soft landing for the economy. The ISM figures released yesterday look good.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-09-01/china-manufacturing-bounces-back-from-low-in-stabilization-sign.html





Meanwhile Citigroup bets on expansion in China
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2010-08-31/citigroup-plans-to-almost-triple-china-workforce-to-12-000-in-three-years.html

Size of the Government – A Brief Examination

If one were to look at a standard textbook breakdown of GDP (expenditure approach), we would find the following changes occurring during the recent recession:

(Data Source: BEA; Chart created by Vivek Jayakumar)

 

G (Government Purchases) doesn’t appear to have changed much. Where did all the hundreds of billions of stimulus dollars go? 

Well, it is a little bit complicated. The G portion of aggregate expenditure only captures spending by federal, state and local governments on newly produced goods and services during a given period. For instance, the federal portion under G only shows federal government consumption and federal government gross investment. It does not include interest payments on debt or transfer payments.

To get a closer look at where the stimulus dollars went, it is worth looking at federal government current expenditure (which includes federal government consumption, various transfer payments, and interest paid on debt). The graph below highlights changes in federal government current expenditure (along with government consumption and transfer payments).

(Data Source: BEA & FRED II; Chart created by Vivek Jayakumar)  

An interesting item under transfer payments is federal government grants to state and local governments, which has grown recently.

 (Data Source: BEA; Chart created by Vivek Jayakumar)  

Most of the US stimulus spending was oriented towards infrastructure spending, grant provisions to states, social welfare spending and even tax cuts. Many of these items are not part of G, and hence we have just a slight change in G's share of GDP between 2007 and 2009. 

A Note (BEA classification):

 In the national accounts,

• Direct payment from a federal agency to a business to support current production or operations is classified as a subsidy 
•  Direct payments made to state or local governments are classified as grants or capital transfers.
• Payments associated with the acquisition or disposal of an asset is classified as a capital transfer.

Here is a nice chart (from the BEA) on stimulus spending:

To get an overall picture of the size of the government in the US, it is relevant to look at total government expenditure as a % of GDP. Total government expenditure is a comprehensive measure of government spending at all levels (includes federal government outlays, federal grants and state and local government expenditures)

Data Source: OMB; Chart created by Vivek Jayakumar