Attention Economy


Monday, September 20, 2010

NBER finally Announces the End Date for the Great Recession

NBER announced that the recent recession officially ended in June 2009. 
NOTE: The media description of a recession as at least two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is only a general rule of thumb and not the official definition of a recession in the US. In the US, the NBER officially designates business cycle dates and uses a broad definition to define a recession.

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion”
                                                                                                 -  NBER

Variables considered by NBER include:
quarterly estimate of real Gross Domestic Product (and the quarterly estimate of real Gross Domestic Income)
 payroll employment measure
 real personal income less transfer payments
 real manufacturing and wholesale-retail trade sales
 industrial production
employment estimates based on the household survey

In modern times, the 2007-2009 recession was the longest recession since the Great Depression!!