AI Raises Deep Philosophical Questions

‘If you build something vastly smarter than you, it better be on your side’: can we stop AI from deceiving us?
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2026/sep/01/if-you-build-something-vastly-smarter-than-you-it-better-be-on-your-side-can-we-stop-ai-from-deceiving-us
We are used to the idea that our fellow humans might intentionally mislead or manipulate us, but the idea that machines can now do the same is deeply unsettling. Researchers are racing to find solutions before it’s too late. 

The search for consciousness inside AI
https://www.economist.com/interactive/briefing/2026/08/20/the-search-for-consciousness-inside-llms
Scientists are trying to figure out whether algorithms could one day wake up and feel.

Equity Bubbles

The 4 Bits of Jargon That Will Help You Spot a Market Swoon
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/06/opinion/ai-market-bubble-crash.html

Dalio On AI Bubble Nearing 1929, 2000 Levels: ‘Wealth Is not the Same as Money'
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/dalio-on-ai-bubble-nearing-1929--2000-levels---wealth-is-not-the-same-as-money-87991.html
Acadian Asset Management’s Owen Lamont has framed the clearest test of whether markets are truly in bubble territory around four conditions he calls the “Four Horsemen of the Bubble Apocalypse“: extreme overvaluation, widespread “bubble beliefs” (investors who admit prices are too high but expect them to rise anyway), a surge in equity issuance, and a flood of new market participants. Dalio’s comments map almost precisely onto the third horseman.
“There’s almost nothing that’s easier to produce than stock,” he said, describing how a company can raise $50 million, get valued at a billion, and mint a paper billionaire without a billion dollars ever changing hands. He’s identified surging stock issuance as one of the two primary forces that “prick” a bubble, alongside rising interest rates.

America Is Great at Creating Stock Market Bubbles—and Shrugging Them Off
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stock-market-bubbles-recovery-029d21d0
One day the bust will be the big one. But for now the pullback in AI-related stocks has been almost completely offset by gains elsewhere.
 
Big Tech Earnings Are Sending Valuations in Wildly Different Directions
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/tech-company-earnings-stock-market-5c4179d8
Reports from tech giants drove big gains and losses, while the Fed-fueled bond selloff adds to market pressures. 

The AI bubble could be worse than the dot-com bust by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill - 06/16/26
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5925202-tech-bubble-ai-driven-growth/

Investors Get a Dose of Reality

Humbling times for markets
https://www.ft.com/content/e41dadef-c473-48ff-9fa5-30b56d40af34
Investors finally show signs of growing weary of the painfully obvious nonsense.
 
How A.I. Mania Turned This Stock Market Into a ‘Version of Squid Game’
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/31/business/korea-stocks-chips-kospi.html
South Korea’s KOSPI index has swung wildly because of both the enthusiasm and anxiety related to investing in the global artificial intelligence boom.  

There’s no escape from the AI whipsaw
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/theres-no-escape-ai-whipsaw-2026-07-31/

Mag 7 Era Nears its End

The end of ‘The Magnificent 7’: the problem with stock nicknames
https://www.ft.com/content/2ac61eb8-8d28-42f8-8a60-6159f3b3913e
A cynic would say such monikers are made up by professionals looking to hype markets — I think ‘The Mag 7’ is much more dangerous than that.

The Magnificent Seven Are Riding into the Sunset by John Authers
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-07-29/the-magnificent-seven-are-riding-into-the-sunset 

Everyday Investors Are Over the Mag Seven and Into New AI Darlings
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/everyday-investors-are-over-the-mag-seven-and-into-new-ai-darlings-a112ea2b
Once the Magnificent Seven’s most enthusiastic fans, they are looking elsewhere for the next superstar tech stocks. 

Related:

Dividends are the best way to protect yourself from the AI bubble
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/07/17/dividends-best-way-to-protect-yourself-from-ai-bubble/
Equity income-focused strategies offer a steady alternative to the US and its surging economy.

Do Consumer Sentiments Really Matter?

Why economic surveys have lost their relevance
https://www.ft.com/content/1c559e9c-83b8-486c-812f-cb431e6970ce
Distorted by partisan passion and rising inequality, they are a reflection of popular frustrations — not overall growth.

Do We Really Feel This Lousy About the Economy, or Is a Key Survey Broken?
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/do-we-really-feel-this-lousy-about-the-economy-or-is-a-key-survey-broken-06c8c9ca
The University of Michigan is pushing back and defending its widely tracked consumer sentiment gauge. 

Related:
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/americans-are-richer-than-ever--why-are-they-so-angry-87865.html

Fed Policy Approach Debate

How—and how much—should central banks talk? 
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/08/06/how-and-how-much-should-central-banks-talk
The art is to say enough, and no more.
 
What will Kevin Warsh do if America’s economy breaks?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/08/02/what-will-kevin-warsh-do-if-americas-economy-breaks
An enigmatic Fed faces the risk of AI stocks falling and the oil price soaring.

Warsh Makes Markets Do Their Job
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/federal-reserve-markets-guidance-kevin-warsh-03fb4432
Have they forgotten how to price risk without the Federal Reserve guiding them?

The Problem with Warsh’s Deference to Markets
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-problem-with-warshs-deference-to-markets-872edf9c
The Fed chairman’s analogy of calling balls and strikes doesn’t work. The central bank isn’t the umpire, it is the most important player in the game.

Fed flip-flops make case for less talk
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/fed-flip-flops-make-case-less-talk-2026-07-16/ 

Fed patience risks shredding credibility
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/fed-patience-risks-shredding-credibility-2026-07-27/

The Federal Reserve Ain’t Broke, So Don’t Fix It by Alan Blinder
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-federal-reserve-aint-broke-so-dont-fix-it-c22a2de0
We need forward guidance to avoid the guessing game that follows when central bankers say nothing. 

Structural shifts demand a new central banking mindset by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill, July 21, 2026
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5979598-monetary-policy-paradigm-shifts/
While the primary objective of most central banks — maintaining price stability — remains unchanged, the post-pandemic economic landscape has evolved in ways that require policymakers to rethink how monetary policy is designed and implemented. 

A Tragic Development

The End of Reading Is Here by Rose Horowitch
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/08/reading-crisis-postliterate-age/687618/
Optimists once believed that universal literacy was inevitable. Now it seems that the age of reading might be a short anomaly in human history. 

Momentum Trading

Momentum trade is market's short-term steamroller
https://www.breakingviews.com/columns/big-view/momentum-trade-is-markets-short-term-steamroller-2026-07-17/ 

Related:

SpaceX and the myth of independent Wall St research
https://www.ft.com/content/ce345155-d897-4f49-b7c8-13680e3b5434
Buy recommendations from IPO banks underscore the limits of post-dotcom reforms.

Equity Investing: Dumb Money versus Smart Money

It’s a World-Class Investment. It’s a Junk Investment. What Is Going on With SpaceX?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/09/opinion/spacex-ipo-investment-smart-dumb-money.html
Must what goes up also come down? 

The Mind Game That Investors Can’t Stop Playing

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-mind-game-that-investors-cant-stop-playing-e3ad96af

Buying what’s hot feels right at the time, but too often ends in tears.

 

A.I. Has Rewarded Investors. It May Now Pose Their Greatest Risk.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/10/business/ai-stocks-bonds-investing-markets.html

Near the midpoint of the year, stocks and bonds both report good returns. But the global stock market has become highly concentrated, our columnist says.

US Equity Markets - Interesting Items

America’s bull market has entered its manic phase
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/06/16/americas-bull-market-has-entered-its-manic-phase
Options markets show optimism is giving way to euphoria.

The Small Investors Behind SpaceX’s Stock Rally
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/18/business/spacex-retail-investors.html
The company’s blockbuster trading debut is the latest example of how individual investors have become a force in financial markets. 
 
Trillion-Dollar Meme Stocks Are Here. Be Prepared
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/trillion-dollar-meme-stocks-are-here--be-prepared-87447.html

Are We All Active Investors Now?

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/are-we-all-active-investors-now-87455.html
 
Gen Z Traders Go for Broke in Pursuit of a New American Dream
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/gen-z-traders-go-for-broke-in-pursuit-of-a-new-american-dream-87435.html   

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MY TAKE:

The AI bubble could be worse than the dot-com bust by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill - 06/16/26
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5925202-tech-bubble-ai-driven-growth/

SpaceX IPO and the American Stock Market

Our Stock Market Is Broken by Aaron Zamost
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/08/opinion/spacex-ipo-stock-market.html
As part of its pitch to sell shares on the stock market, Elon Musk’s aerospace and technology company says it will capture over $28 trillion of the A.I. market (nearly the size of the entire United States economy). It says it plans to launch one million satellites to put data centers in outer space (though the technology doesn’t yet exist). And it vows to hand Mr. Musk huge amounts of stock if he establishes a Mars colony that houses one million people (though no human has been within about 35 million miles of the planet).
Mr. Musk could well believe his own projections. What’s harder to understand is why so many investors do, given his recent track record of missed deadlines, abandoned products and failed business predictions.
 
How Banks Are Using SpaceX to Woo the Superrich
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/08/business/spacex-ipo-banks-wealth-management.html
Wall Street is giving its richest clients velvet rope access to this week’s public listing of SpaceX, reflecting the growing importance of the wealth management business.  

Wall Street Is Rushing to Fund the AI Bonanza in Every Conceivable Way
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-06-08-2026-aac7c547
From giant debt deals to IPOs, tech companies keep raking in investor cash.

The A.I. Bubble Is Coming for Your Retirement Account
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/10/opinion/ai-ipo-openai-anthropic.html

When the Bubble Bursts

What to do with your money if the AI bubble bursts
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/06/04/what-do-your-money-if-the-ai-bubble-bursts/
In a massive sell-off, the idea of preserving your capital is for the birds.

Carnage in Chip Stocks Hits Extra Hard in Top-Heavy Market
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/carnage-in-chip-stocks-hits-extra-hard-in-top-heavy-market-7f0ea76a

Fears of rising interest rates collided with worries about artificial-intelligence spending, bringing an abrupt and painful end to weeks of gains. 

The Madman Theory

The Madman Strikes Back
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/28/trump-madman-theory-iran/
Nixon’s theory on the power of unpredictability didn’t account for an actual madman adversary.

Finfluencers

‘This Is Not Financial Advice’
https://www.noemamag.com/this-is-not-financial-advice/
How finfluencers prey on economic desperation. 

People/Politicians are Not Rational Actors

Jeremy Warner:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/30/a-year-from-now-nobody-will-be-talking-about-iran/
In the lead-up to the First World War, stock markets sailed blissfully on: not because investors were unaware of the ever-louder drum beat of impending conflict but because they collectively assumed none of the great powers would be stupid enough to stumble into the catastrophe of an all-out war.
That view was perfectly encapsulated in a highly influential book by Norman Angell, a British journalist, published a few years before the outbreak of hostilities. Angell’s The Great Illusion argued that the economic costs of war and the accompanying disruptions to trade were likely to be so devastating that nobody could possibly hope to gain by starting one.
Economic interdependence between industrial countries would be “the real guarantor of the good behavior of one state to another”, Angell argued. This had never stopped countries from going to war before but it was also true that the level of economic integration and interchange between elites in Europe at the time was without precedent. Sadly, it didn’t help. Yet markets refused to believe in bad outcomes right up to the point where troops were mobilized and borders closed. 

The TACO Problem

The TACO Equilibrium
https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/2026/05/oil-prices-iran-trump/687344/
Oil markets expect Donald Trump to end the Iran war imminently. That might be why he doesn’t.  

Is it Time to Get Worried About US Equities?

3 Years of the AI Stock Market Boom in Charts
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/three-years-ai-stock-market-boom-charts

Telegraph's Jeremy Warner:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/26/stock-markets-threaten-to-fracture-under-pressure-from-trum/
It’s a mug’s game predicting when bull markets are going to end. So far, stock prices have casually brushed aside virtually every shock thrown at them – from pestilence to war and growing protectionism – and could easily carry on in the same vein for a long time to come.
But as Herbert Stein, President Richard Nixon’s economic adviser, observed: “If something cannot carry on forever, it will stop.” Hard to know when, though.

The Risk Premium for Holding Stocks Over Bonds Is Vanishing
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-risk-premium-for-holding-stocks-over-bonds-is-vanishing-95be5b9d
The gap between the market’s earnings yield and bond yields has narrowed, a measure that has at times predicted subpar stock returns.
 
Jeremy Grantham on why this market will fall by 50% but nobody will warn you
https://youtu.be/M-dnlf_8W5o 

The Stock Market Has Never Been So Good When People Have Felt So Bad
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/stock-market-consumer-sentiment-af088e87
Stocks are partying like it’s 1999, but Americans haven’t been this gloomy in 70 years. 

Why IPO mania could signal top of the market
https://www.ft.com/content/7e153dc1-7e13-44d0-9c49-8071a4c29261

Why it’s too late to jump on the chip bandwagon
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/why-its-too-late-jump-chip-bandwagon-2026-05-22/ 

Related:

A Cold Shower for The AI Mania
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/a-cold-shower-for-the-ai-mania-87115.html

Bad Vibes

The ‘Vibecession’ Is Over. The ‘Permacession’ Is Here.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/05/americans-depressed-economy/687278/
Why Americans are so unhappy. 

Being Ordinary

Why Is It So Hard to Be Ordinary?
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/open-questions/why-is-it-so-hard-to-be-ordinary
It’s what most of us are, most of the time. Shouldn’t it be enough? 

The Surging Stock Market

Party time for stock markets cannot last for ever
https://www.ft.com/content/87c5ebda-a18e-4eeb-8298-d13bdacf4d50
Investor mood is shifting to outright red-hot exuberance.
 
The Stock Market’s Winning Streak Is About to Be Tested
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/business/stocks-bonds-interest-rates-inflation.html
Despite accelerating inflation and possible interest rate increases, the S&P 500 has posted a long weekly winning streak, driven by strong corporate earnings. Can it last?

War, inflation and Trump’s tariffs have shaken the US. Why does the stock market keep going up?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2026/may/14/us-stock-market-war-inflation-tariffs-trump
Wall Street has proved incredibly resilient to instability, and while consumer confidence has dipped, shares have soared. 

Why It’s So Hard to Spot a Stock-Market Bubble
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-its-so-hard-to-spot-a-stock-market-bubble-63f40a1c
A sudden surge in share prices makes us all think we know what’s coming next.

Why Stocks Keep Going Up
https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/2026/05/stock-market-iran-war-bullish/687041/
The boom is not as untethered from reality as it may look. 

Markets are banking on the ‘Bliss trade’
https://www.ft.com/content/60f60089-9486-481c-859c-f29b8ccbbd90
A belief in resilience underwritten by big lasting state support is keeping stocks high.