Will AI Create a Permanent Underclass?

Silicon Valley Is Bracing for a Permanent Underclass
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/opinion/ai-labor-work-force-silicon-valley.html 

Does Trade Cause Peace?

Does trade cause peace? Ask an economist by Soumaya Keynes
https://www.ft.com/content/d141cf41-e47a-4657-9f6b-ed26e6c59ac6
Researchers have been trawling history to measure the pacifying effects of moving goods around. 

The IPO Underpricing Debate

Beyond The Hype: What Really Drives IPO Prices?

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/beyond-the-hype--what-really-drives-ipo-prices-86807.html

Stock Market Investing – Interesting Items

Will Emerging-Market Pioneer Mark Mobius Be Vindicated?
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/will-emerging-market-pioneer-mark-mobius-be-vindicated
Why emerging-market stocks are a good investment today. 

Emerging market stocks hit record high as Asian chipmakers surge
https://www.ft.com/content/5a003a35-a48b-4e46-a2d3-b99ae41d0e46
Rally for TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix powers EM stock index’s rebound from Iran war losses.

15 Stocks That Made Investors the Most Money Over the Past 10 Years
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/15-stocks-that-made-investors-most-money-over-past-10-years
These companies delivered the largest gains in total shareholder value.
 

Big Tech Strikes Gold With AI, but at a Steep Cost
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/big-tech-strikes-gold-with-ai-but-at-a-steep-cost-f6d82a22
While Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon ride artificial intelligence to strong earnings, some investors are still worried about spending.

Corporate America Is Minting Money—and Not Just in Tech and Finance
https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/corporate-america-is-minting-moneyand-not-just-in-tech-and-finance-0d833898
Profits grow for many companies in the face of war, rising oil prices and inflation; “it’s extremely polarized.” 

In retirement, volatility is the price of better returns
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/23/in-retirement-volatility-is-the-price-of-better-returns/
Tom Stevenson:
The issue of a market downturn in early retirement is called “sequencing risk”. It refers to the way in which the same set of annual investment returns can have a vastly different impact on your retirement, depending on the order in which they occur.
Two investors drawing an income from their pension pots can end up with two very different amounts of money if they experience the same annual returns but in a different sequence.
An investor who starts their retirement with a few bad years in the market will have a much worse outcome than one who starts with a few good ones, even if the performances are subsequently reversed. “Bad then good” is much more damaging than “good then bad” when you are simultaneously taking money out of your savings to live on. 

Is America Afraid of Competition?

For the average price of a car in the US, you could buy 5 new Chinese EVs
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/average-price-car-us-you-could-buy-5-new-chinese-evs-2026-04-28/

The U.S. Wants to Ban China’s High-Tech Cars, but They’re Already Here in El Paso
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/chinese-cars-byd-geely-u-s-mexico-be0dea28
Mexican dealers are selling cutting-edge Chinese cars that U.S. consumers can’t buy. Americans are warming to the idea of them.

China's next automotive revolution on display
https://www.reuters.com/pictures/electric-vehicles-ai-chinas-next-automotive-revolution-display-beijing-2026-04-27/
The Beijing Auto Show showcases China's latest electric vehicles equipped with artificial intelligence systems, futuristic interiors and technology that's reshaping the industry.

 
The Rising Chinese Automaker Not Named BYD
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/business/geely-china-byd-export.html
Geely is challenging the giant BYD by adapting quickly to swings in demand and energy prices, seizing on interest in electric vehicles prompted by the war in Iran.

Related:

Why this Chinese EV terrifies Europe’s carmakers
https://youtu.be/vgCYYrhL-kE

UAE Quits OPEC

The U.A.E.’s OPEC Bombshell Signals a New Middle East Order
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-a-e-opec-new-middle-east-32ceda56
After bearing the brunt of Iran’s counterattack, the financial powerhouse is strengthening ties with Israel and challenging Saudi Arabia.

How the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC could recast the Middle East
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/28/how-uae-leave-opec-recast-middle-east-saudi-arabia-us
Defection is damaging to Saudi Arabia’s prestige – and could strengthen the US hand in the region.
 
UAE leaves OPEC in blow to global oil producers' group
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/
The United Arab Emirates on Tuesday said it was quitting OPEC, dealing a blow to the oil producers' group ​as an unprecedented energy crisis caused by the Iran war exposes discord among Gulf nations. 

Europe's Economic and Strategic Conundrum

How Europe regulated itself into American vassalage
https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/04/22/how-europe-regulated-itself-into-american-vassalage
The road to economic serfdom.
 
How EU is pivoting away from ‘toxic’ Trump & closer to China | Fareed's Take
https://youtu.be/YWZACdqdFcc
 
Europe Still Needs China
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/europe-still-needs-china# 

Cost-Push versus Demand-Pull Inflation

Where Americans Are Drawing the Line on Price Increases
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/where-americans-are-drawing-the-line-on-price-increases-3e237258
Shoppers are buying less where prices are rising fastest, showing that inflation isn’t being driven by demand but by companies passing on costs. 

Dimon on Risk of a Debt Crisis

The U.S. had a national debt ‘home run’ in its grasp, says Jamie Dimon. But the government did nothing, and now its best option is crisis management
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/u-had-national-debt-home-104852574.html

Jamie Dimon:
https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/annual-report/2025/ar-ceo-letters

• Global deficits are significantly elevated, particularly during what has been a relatively healthy global economy and, until recently, a time of peace — the deficit globally is at an extremely high 5%, while global sovereign debt is at all-time highs. The current forecast from the Congressional Budget Office has our debt-to-GDP ratio going from 100% today to 120% in 2036. High government debt is somewhat offset by low consumer debt, which was nearly 100% of GDP in 2007 and is now below 70%. Similarly, corporate debt is at a fairly normal healthy level of 45%. High and increasing government debt will eventually have to be dealt with — the right way would be to deal with it now before it becomes a problem; the wrong way would be to let it become a crisis, which, in my opinion, is probably the likely outcome. Importantly, almost 60% of government spending is for entitlements and is not discretionary. This makes the job that much harder. A crucial note on the importance of growth: If interest rates went down 100 basis points and GDP grew at 3%, the debt-to-GDP ratio could actually start to go down instead of going up.

ALLISON SCHRAGER:
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/ai-may-be-the-u-s--economy-s-only-hope-86788.html

• If you take the long view, America’s economic outlook is pretty bleak. Like a lot of rich countries, it is overwhelmed by debt it has no plans to reduce. Even more troubling is its aging population, which will reduce growth and leave fewer people to pay all that debt. There is only one hope: a sudden increase in productivity that will boost growth so much it will pay for everything. As it happens, that is precisely the promise, or one of them, of AI. But what are the chances of it coming true?

Bill Maher on Taxes and Government Spending

 

A Challenging Labor Market for New College Graduates

Graduates Reset Ambitions in Pursuit of First Jobs
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/business/economy/college-graduates-job-market.html
Young people aiming to build careers are entering fields they had not considered in order to find their footing. 
 
Internships Are More Crucial Than Ever—and Even Harder to Find
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/internships-are-more-crucial-than-everand-even-harder-to-find-cbefc84a
More students and unemployed graduates are vying for a limited number of spots to improve their odds of getting hired. 

The Student Loan Bubble

The Credit Bubble Everybody’s Ignoring
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-credit-bubble-everybodys-ignoring-e457c0ae
Federally backed student loans and mortgages are seeing increased defaults. Taxpayers are on the hook. 

Iran War is Bad for the Global Economy

The U.S. Started the War. The Rest of the World Is Feeling the Effects.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/business/economy/iran-war-global-growth.html
In eight weeks, much of the global economy has been knocked sideways by the conflict in the Middle East. America has mostly been spared from the tumult. 

Healthcare's Role in the American Economy

Healthcare is driving America’s economy
https://www.ft.com/content/6b1bcbab-21d4-49a3-9940-d7550f042e5d
This is a huge industry — and that’s not necessarily a good thing. 

International Comparisons

Cost of Living Index by Countries
https://wise.com/gb/cost-of-living/index-by-country
Currently, the top 10 most expensive countries are Switzerland, Bahamas, Iceland, Singapore, Barbados, Norway, Denmark, Hong Kong (China), United States, and Australia.

The Best Healthcare in the World in 2026
https://www.internationalinsurance.com/health/systems/ 

The AI Frenzy Is Back

The AI Frenzy Is Back and Lifting the Entire Stock Market to Record Highs
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-ai-frenzy-is-back-and-lifting-the-entire-stock-market-to-record-highs-5d5586ac
Signs of froth are everywhere, with the IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI expected to be the biggest ever and investors desperate to find ways in.
 
Is AI the next dot-com crash? | Business Beyond
https://youtu.be/c5tdpOVrtdA 

Macroeconomic Considerations:

AI Productivity Growth Won’t Match the Computer Revolution
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-productivity-will-not-match-computer-revolution-by-carl-benedikt-frey-2026-04
Those promoting AI would be lucky to see the technology’s impact on output per hour match even the short-lived burst of the 1990s and 2000s. Productivity growth will underwhelm, not because the technology is weak, but because it creates a bottleneck that earlier digital tools largely avoided.
 
Will AI Solve Rich Countries’ Debt Woes?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-potential-revenue-gains-may-not-offset-other-harms-and-costs-by-kenneth-rogoff-2026-04
Although many commentators believe that AI has the potential to supercharge economic growth and solve our most vexing problems, such optimism underplays the risks. If anything, the technology is likely to cause profound—and costly—problems on the way to the halcyon future. 

A Scary Tale

Her Life Savings Mysteriously Disappeared After a Systems Glitch
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/25/your-money/fidelity-investments-fraud-alert.html
Fidelity Investments notified a customer that her phone number and email address had been removed from her profile. When she logged in, her accounts were gone. 

A New World Order?

The Age of Global Un-Order
https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/geopolitics-in-a-world-without-order-by-mark-leonard-2026-04
As crises become more complex, less predictable, and increasingly intertwined, the global system is no longer anchored by shared rules and norms. In a world where the very idea of order has collapsed, governments must learn to navigate radical uncertainty rather than chasing lost anchors of stability.

The Future Does Not Belong to America or China
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/17/order-hierarchy-medieval-chaos-power-security/
Our fixation with defining the emerging global order hides the true complexity of our neo-medieval moment. 

The Deeper Forces Shaping Global Trade
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/global-trade-deeper-forces-beyond-tariffs-by-tiago-devesa-et-al-2026-04
It would be natural to assume that tariffs are the driving force behind recent major shifts in global trade patterns. But while geopolitically-driven trade policies are indeed reconfiguring flows, longer-term shifts in technology and economic development are determining what the world builds and buys. 

Labor Market Uncertainty and a Nervous Workforce

Most Americans Think the Job Market Will Get Worse. Here’s Why That Matters.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/most-americans-think-the-job-market-will-get-worse-heres-why-that-matters-d121585a
Overall employment hasn’t budged amid layoffs. But those with stable jobs and high salaries are spooked.  

Job Cuts Driven by A.I. Are Rising on Wall Street
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/business/ai-job-cuts-wall-street.html
“A.I. gives us places to go we haven’t gone,” said one bank’s chief executive. 

The AI Risk We Need to Focus On
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-worker-displacement-greater-problem-than-financial-system-risk-by-lenny-mendonca-and-martin-neil-baily-2026-04
Owing to all the work that was done following the 2008 financial crisis and bank bailouts, regulators now have the tools to prevent an AI-driven financial crisis. But even if that risk is managed, we still need policymakers to get serious about ensuring that the AI revolution works for everyone. 
 
Internships Are More Crucial Than Ever—and Even Harder to Find
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/internships-are-more-crucial-than-everand-even-harder-to-find-cbefc84a
More students and unemployed graduates are vying for a limited number of spots to improve their odds of getting hired.

Renminbi Internationalization

Xi Jinping wants a powerful currency. America’s war has helped
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/23/xi-jinping-wants-a-powerful-currency-americas-war-has-helped
More countries are starting to use China’s payment infrastructure.

War and Sanctions Accelerate China’s Currency Push
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/24/business/china-currency-iran.html
China’s bid to build a renminbi-based financial system beyond the U.S. dollar’s reach is gaining traction as a way to sidestep sanctions. 

Why Kenneth Rogoff thinks China’s yuan will be a reserve currency ‘in the next 5 years’
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3348156/why-kenneth-rogoff-thinks-chinas-yuan-will-be-reserve-currency-next-5-years
Harvard economist explains why cryptocurrencies will never take the US dollar’s place, despite their popularity in underground economies.

Thanks to Trump’s war with Iran, the foundations of the US dollar system have come into question
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/23/the-gulf-crisis-is-clear-and-present-danger-to-your-wealth/

A New Look Fed?

Kevin Warsh’s Plan to Save an Independent Federal Reserve
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/kevin-warshs-plan-to-save-an-independent-federal-reserve-66db55d8
More humility, better data and freer disagreements could bring back the central bank’s credibility. 

How Kevin Warsh Could Shrink the Fed’s Footprint in Financial Markets 
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/24/us/politics/kevin-warsh-fed-rates-balance-sheet.html

Morocco's Economic Model

Morocco’s New Model Economy
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/morocco-development-story-improvisation-not-grand-schemes-by-abdelmalek-alaoui-2026-04
Africa’s future will not be written by countries waiting for perfect conditions. It will be written by countries like Morocco, which made the most of its undesirable post-colonial inheritance to become not only an economic success story but a potential model for others to emulate.  

Gen Z and the Labor Market

There’s Another Reason Gen Z Can’t Find Work 
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/22/opinion/gen-z-job-ladder.html 

Immigration Economics - Theory versus Reality

What Everyone Got Wrong About Jobs and the Immigration Crackdown
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/immigration-crackdown-labor-market-fcfed2d6
More than a year into President Trump’s immigration crackdown, there is little evidence of widespread disruptions in the labor market, or of meaningful benefits to American workers. 

International Comparison of Gasoline Prices

Why Gasoline Is So Much Cheaper in the U.S. Than Overseas
https://www.wsj.com/economy/why-gasoline-is-so-much-cheaper-in-the-u-s-than-overseas-f6bd2309
Even as prices at the pump have remained elevated, American consumers are paying less than many of their counterparts in Europe and Asia. 

Competing with China

Why this Chinese EV terrifies Europe’s carmakers
https://youtu.be/vgCYYrhL-kE
 

As U.S. Brands Stumble, China Wins Over Young Indonesians
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/23/business/china-brands-indonesia.html
A new generation of Indonesian consumers view Chinese brands as high-tech and of good quality, a departure from the days when “made in China” was associated with cheap goods.  

Related:

I Left the U.S. For Shenzhen, China – Here's How Much It Costs
https://youtu.be/IuVr8hqWG0o

Cost of Home Ownership - Shifting Patterns

The Tables Have Turned: Florida, Texas Biggest Losers in Housing as Ohio Shines
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the-tables-have-turned--florida--texas-biggest-losers-in-housing-as-ohio-shines-86718.html
 
Home Insurance Costs Hit America's Heartland the Hardest
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/home-insurance-costs-hit-america-s-heartland-the-hardest-86711.html 

Related:

Florida’s Population Boom Fizzles as High Costs Drive Away Middle Class
https://www.wsj.com/economy/floridas-population-boom-fizzles-as-high-costs-drive-away-middle-class-fbc6a345
Orlando and other Florida cities are either losing domestic migrants or gaining them more slowly, threatening the state’s economic model. 

Dynamic Pricing and the World Cup

Is Dynamic Pricing Ruining the World Cup? 
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/is-dynamic-pricing-ruining-the-world-cup
Soccer fans and host-city politicians are up in arms about the prices that FIFA is charging for tickets under its new sales system.  

An Update on 'China Shock'

The Unlikely Recovery of America’s China-Shocked Towns
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/opinion/america-manufacturing-recovery-china.html

David Autor (MIT Economist) Interview:
https://gsas.harvard.edu/news/david-autor-china-shock-manufacturing-jobs-interview

What Really Drives China’s Massive Trade Surplus
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/how-to-fix-china-massive-trade-surplus-by-shang-jin-wei-2026-04
China’s trade surplus is often blamed on its industrial policies. In reality, however, it reflects a persistent gap between savings and investment, driven by demographic pressures and financial constraints that shape household behavior and restrict private firms’ access to credit.

Related:
The ‘China Shock’ Offers a Lesson. It Isn’t the One Trump Has Learned.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/11/business/economy/tariffs-trump-china-shock.html
Economists say the U.S. manufacturing decline in recent decades was not mainly about free trade, but about the pace of change without time to adjust.

How the U.S. Lost Its Place as the World’s Manufacturing Powerhouse
https://www.wsj.com/economy/us-manufacturing-decline-service-economy-ee97a1e2
Trump says his tariff plan will restore American manufacturing might, but economists are skeptical.  

Florida’s Population Boom Fizzles

Florida’s Population Boom Fizzles as High Costs Drive Away Middle Class
https://www.wsj.com/economy/floridas-population-boom-fizzles-as-high-costs-drive-away-middle-class-fbc6a345
Orlando and other Florida cities are either losing domestic migrants or gaining them more slowly, threatening the state’s economic model. 

Cybercrime Goes Global

How Cybercrime Became a Leading Industry in ‘Scambodia’
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/cambodia-cybercrime-rise-why-2f2c03cc
Crime syndicates based in Cambodia corrupt officials, enslave workers and fleece victims worldwide. 

Mark Mobius - A Pioneering Investor in Emerging Markets

Mark Mobius, ‘Indiana Jones’ of emerging markets fund management
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2026/04/19/mark-mobius-emerging-markets-fund-management-asia-finance/
Sober institutions and sophisticated retail savers alike were attracted to the fashionable promise of faraway places. Mobius was a showman and a seductive salesman, but his disciplined approach was based in research from Templeton analysts around the world and he rarely bought a share before he had visited the company himself to quiz its managers and owners.
His advice to potential investors was: “Think like we think. Give us money when markets are bad [and] invest with a five-year time horizon.” More broadly, he took the view that “the world belongs to optimists; the pessimists are only spectators.” 

Mark Mobius, Pioneering Investor in Emerging Markets 
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/business/mark-mobius-dead.html
 
The legendary stock picker opened an emerging world to investors in the funds he helped manage, but not before he saw those countries with own eyes
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/emerging-market-pioneer-mark-mobius-dies-at-89-5ed4e945

Insider Trading and Prediction Markets

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/iran-war-bets-ethics-concerns
Suspicious wagers on the US-Israel war in Iran are creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers. 

Trying to Make Sense of Recent Stock Market Moves

The Record Stock Market Rests on Some Big One-Offs
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-record-stock-market-rests-on-some-big-one-offs-7e7a2500
There are two significant reasons earnings expectations have soared—and they are both probably temporary. 

Wall Street's 'escapism' - irrational, yet completely logical
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-streets-escapism-irrational-yet-completely-logical-2026-04-16/
Maybe markets are smart not to panic. Adam Tooze, economic historian and professor at Columbia University, says the "geopolitical world" has cried wolf so much in ​recent years that investors have become inured to the doomsday howls, just as they have become de-sensitized to the unpredictable and erratic tendencies of Trump.
"We're in a world of cognitive dissonance. There are ​two worlds. For the policy people, the world as we know it is really over. For folks in the markets, it's continuity - you keep on trading," Tooze told a panel at the Institute of International Finance conference ‌in Washington ⁠on Wednesday. 

It’s Getting Harder to Tell Investing from Gambling, and It’s Not Your Fault
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/its-getting-harder-to-tell-investing-from-gambling-and-its-not-your-fault-3973ddd5

In economic theory, your attitude toward risk is supposed to remain stable, and you’ll use all relevant information when making investment decisions.
In the real world, your attitude toward risk depends partly on who you are, but also on what you’ve lived through. And the data you’ll rely on is a mix of recent history and whatever stands out most vividly from your own experience.

 
Why the Stock Market Makes No Sense Right Now
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/opinion/wall-street-markets-iran-ai.html 

The Stock Market Sounds an Alarm for the First Time in 25 Years. Here's Where History Says the S&P 500 Is Headed Next.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-sounds-alarm-first-015000710.html
Generally, when an analyst is discussing whether the market is over- or undervalued, they are referring to earnings. In other words, Wall Street benchmarks the average price-to-earnings (P/E) or forward earnings multiples across the index against historical thresholds to determine whether the market is frothy.
Don't get me wrong: Analyzing these metrics can be quite helpful. But in my eyes, traditional valuation multiples fall short at capturing more nuanced valuation dynamics. Instead, I choose to look at the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio.
The CAPE ratio is pretty nifty because it accounts for earnings over the past 10 years. By casting its net this wide, the CAPE ratio inherently captures and smooths out different economic cycles, inflation levels, and one-time events that influence earnings quality in the market.

The stock market’s new approach to valuation

https://www.ft.com/content/7227583f-3335-4cc2-a1af-24db59ebe3fa

Hong Kong and Mainland China

The declining appeal of the Hong Kong expat
https://www.ft.com/content/b1f029f7-c4d5-445e-9fad-3158528a711f
“Given the vast influx of dual-educated [in China and the US] highly motivated staff from China, the need to import solely from abroad has diminished,” said Jonathan Slone, former Asia chair of Jefferies.
More sought after are those like the Beijing-born Bridget (not her real name): skilled graduates from top universities on the mainland who can liaise easily with clients across China. In particular demand are those with a US education that allows them to keep one foot in both the Chinese and western worlds. 

Dividend Stocks - A Case Study

Is Nike’s dividend safe? Yield & payout ratio explained
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/nike-dividend
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/nike-dividend-safe-yield-payout-145100012.html 

Is Venezuela Improving?

Venezuela is not the triumph Donald Trump claims, but it’s improving
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/04/16/venezuela-is-not-the-triumph-donald-trump-claims-but-its-improving
Economic growth may accelerate and the regime has become less repressive. 

Industrial Policy in the Twenty-First Century

A Pillar of the Economics Establishment Admits That It Was Wrong
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/04/world-bank-industrial-policy/686820/
In a new report, the World Bank thinks better of its old free-market absolutism.

Has the World Bank performed a U-turn on industrial policy?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/23/has-the-world-bank-performed-a-u-turn-on-industrial-policy

Industrial Policy for Development: Approaches in the 21^st Century
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/b98ce474-f652-4b58-8c74-a65210da7d4c/content 

The Origins and Fate of Digital Sovereignty
https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/why-digital-sovereignty-requires-some-degree-of-protectionism-by-robin-rivaton-2024-06
Among the world’s major economies, only China and Russia have managed to build digital industries that stand apart from American platforms. Once foreign incumbents reach critical mass, local firms have little room to scale, leaving most countries without a viable path to technological autonomy.

Is China Back?

China is coming back – and the timing couldn’t be better
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-is-coming-back-timing-couldnt-be-better-2026-04-16/

Why China’s exports will keep on rising
https://www.economist.com/china/2026/04/21/why-chinas-exports-will-keep-on-rising

 
FT Series: China Shock 2.0
https://www.ft.com/china-shock 

Too Many College Grads?

Does Britain send too many people to university?
https://www.economist.com/britain/2026/04/12/does-britain-send-too-many-people-to-university
A furor over student debt renews debates about dud degrees. 

International Macro - Interesting Items

‘PIIGS’ were Europe’s laggards. Now it’s the ‘BIFs’ – led by Britain
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/17/piigs-were-europes-laggards-now-its-the-bifs-led-by-britain/
In the worst depths of the eurozone debt crisis, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain were branded by bond investors with a cruel acronym: “Piigs”. Such were the strains on the indebted governments’ finances that investors were desperate to avoid holding their debt, demanding exorbitant interest payments in return, or at times locking them out of financial markets altogether.
However, those days are a distant memory, as long, hard and painful reforms turned those nations’ fortunes around. Instead, Britain is now in the bond markets’ bad books. The situation is so stark that the Financial Times has branded the most unpopular nations among bond traders the Bifs: Britain, Italy and France. More than a decade after the eurozone crisis unfolded, these three economies are bearing the brunt of wild swings in debt markets.

A Guide to the Gulf’s Trillions of Dollars of Sovereign Wealth
https://www.wsj.com/finance/a-guide-to-the-gulfs-trillions-of-dollars-of-sovereign-wealth-c17b505e
Before the Iran conflict, the oil-rich region was a reliable source of financing for Wall Street deals. 

Is the US Falling Victim to the Resource Curse?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/is-us-falling-victim-to-the-resource-curse-by-jeffrey-frankel-2026-04
The argument that the natural-resource curse is at work in the US rests on the assumption that rising oil and gas production will necessarily crowd out manufacturing, including renewables. But while the argument is increasingly heard, past experience in the US—as well as in Australia, Chile, Norway, and elsewhere—does not support it.

Global imbalances are back. Who’s to blame?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/16/global-imbalances-are-back-whos-to-blame
The suspects look familiar.

Stocks-Bonds Portfolio Mix

How to build a portfolio when bonds fail to buffer stocks
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/04/14/how-to-build-a-portfolio-when-bonds-fail-to-buffer-stocks
The classic hedge has fallen apart, but don’t dump it just yet.

Stocks Are Back at Records, but Bond Investors Haven’t Joined the Party
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/stocks-are-back-at-records-but-bond-investors-havent-joined-the-party-ccba508d
Bond yields and oil futures are still trading above where they were at the start of the Iran war.

Corporate Profits versus Geopolitical Risks

When the market reacts positively to bad news, we should pay attention
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/15/market-reacts-positively-bad-news-we-should-pay-attention/
Were it not for the oil shock, we would be celebrating a continuing surge in profits.
 
Wall Street Is Spending Its Big Windfall on Wall Street
https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/wall-street-is-spending-its-big-windfall-on-wall-street-55de0545
Banks are investing excess capital in expanding their Wall Street businesses. 

David Brooks on Defiant Humanism (Highly Recommended)

How America recovers from all this | Yale Conversations with David Brooks
https://youtu.be/0YRTSA9q-6M
What does it take to rebuild a society fractured by distrust, populism, and eroding civic bonds? In his third Yale Conversations lecture, "How America Recovers from All This: A Hopeful Vision for our Common Future," author and columnist David Brooks traces the shifting cultural paradigms of the past 70 years to diagnose how America arrived at its current crisis. Drawing on philosophers from Aristotle to Max Scheler, Brooks examines how successive waves of cultural change have given way to widespread disillusionment — with institutions, with leadership, and with one another — and how that disillusionment hardens into resentment. The antidote, he argues, is not political but cultural: a renewed commitment to humanistic values, earnest admiration, and what he calls defiant humanism. 

UK's Economic Woes

Today’s big concern is inflation. Tomorrow’s will be unemployment
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/15/today-big-concern-inflation-tomorrow-unemployment/
Britain’s economic woes are not solely driven by its exposure to surging energy costs. 

Britain is one misstep away from a buyers’ strike in the bond market
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/22/we-are-step-away-from-buyers-strike-in-uk-gilts-markets/

Best Cities for New College Grads

The under-the-radar cities where new college grads can get a good job — and even afford to buy a house
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-under-the-radar-cities-where-new-college-grads-can-get-a-good-job-and-even-afford-to-buy-a-house-d750bba8
A new ranking highlights places with more opportunities for college grads. 

Inflation Related Items

An Inflation Time Bomb is Hiding in Home Insurance
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/an-inflation-time-bomb-is-hiding-in-home-insurance-86625.html   

Bad Inflation Reports Are Often Like Cockroaches
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/bad-inflation-reports-are-often-like-cockroaches-86605.html  

‘Tip of the inflation iceberg’: Social Security’s COLA forecast rises to 3.2%
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tip-of-the-inflation-iceberg-social-securitys-cola-forecast-rises-to-3-2-b2b4062b     

Misallocation of Talent and Resources

We Shouldn’t Need Accountants by Annie Lowrey (The Atlantic)
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/04/tax-day-irs-filing/686805/
This is the case even though Washington could probably do your taxes for you. If you earn a salary or an hourly wage, the Internal Revenue Service already knows how much money you make. It likely knows how much you owe or how big your refund should be too. Nine in 10 households take the standard deduction, making their liability easy to glean from payroll and banking data.
Yet Uncle Sam demands that Americans fire up TurboTax, head to a storefront preparer, hire an accountant, or sit down with a sharp pencil and a strong cup of coffee to get their taxes done each spring. The average filer spends 13 hours on their 1040—a time tax that many of our wealthy peer countries have reduced to a couple of minutes, if that. Prepopulated documents and return-free systems are common everywhere but here. Sweden lets residents file by text. Canada prefills paperwork. Japan sends households a document summarizing their tax contributions. If everything looks copacetic, many workers get to do a blissful nothing. Denmark, Estonia, Spain, and Norway have similarly simple processes. 

Geopolitics and Dollar Dominance

How Trump’s Crypto Push Is Undermining American Power
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/self-defeating-logic-of-trumps-pro-crypto-agenda-by-jayati-ghosh-2026-04
US President Donald Trump’s deregulation of cryptocurrency markets has introduced new financial risks and threatens to undermine the dollar’s global dominance. Russia, Iran, and North Korea have been the biggest beneficiaries, using crypto to evade American sanctions with impunity.
 
Dollar dominance is reinforced by the global oil trade, but the Iran war could give rise to the ‘petroyuan’ as the U.S. security shield weakens
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/dollar-dominance-reinforced-global-oil-193741704.html 

Thanks to Trump’s war with Iran, the foundations of the US dollar system have come into question
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/04/23/the-gulf-crisis-is-clear-and-present-danger-to-your-wealth/

Global Economic Outlook - April 2026

IMF WEO – April 2026
https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/april/english/ch1.pdf 

US Productivity

The Economy Is Growing, Jobs Aren’t. Why That Might Be OK.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/the-economy-is-growing-jobs-arent-why-that-might-be-ok-5c50a535
An unusual divergence between GDP and new jobs shows worker productivity is making up for a slowdown in immigration and the labor force. Artificial intelligence could help.
 
White House Study Says DEI Hurts Productivity
https://www.wsj.com/business/white-house-study-says-dei-hurts-productivity-7f7100a9
The report found that industries that adopted race-based hiring policies in the past decade saw productivity fall, bolstering Trump’s opposition. 

A Consequential Political Shift in Hungary

How Orban, a Wizard of Populism, Lost His Magic Touch
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/13/world/europe/orban-hungary-election-magyar-populism.html
The defeat for Prime Minister Viktor Orban is less the result of an ideological shift in Hungary, and more the playing out of a fundamental rule of politics.

Why Orbán Lost
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/orban-lost-because-terminal-logic-of-illiberal-democracy-by-laszlo-bruszt-2026-04
The downfall of Hungary's autocratic prime minister, whose model of "illiberal democracy"  became a lodestar to many on the right—was a consequence of that model's own logic. Whatever happens next, one thing is certain: democracy's friends and foes alike will be watching closely.
 
After Orbán, Hungary Faces an Even Harder Battle
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/after-defeating-orban-in-hungary-election-opposition-must-rebuild-democratic-society-by-maciej-kisilowski-2026-04
Center-right Tisza’s victory in Hungary’s election shows that even a highly entrenched new-right regime can be defeated at the polls. But the myths, resentments, and paranoia that fueled popular support for Viktor Orbán’s brand of illiberalism have not suddenly vanished with his defeat.
 
Orbánomics has been a disaster for Hungary
https://www.ft.com/content/fa45b937-60e6-43c4-8dfc-01ee82de33a7 

Risks Associated with AI

Mutually Automated Destruction: The Escalating Global A.I. Arms Race
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/12/technology/china-russia-us-ai-weapons.html
China, the U.S., Russia and others have ramped up their A.I.-backed military systems. The buildup has been compared to the dawn of the nuclear weapons age.
 
Banks Are Warned About Anthropic’s New, Powerful A.I. Technology
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/business/anthropic-claude-mythos-preview-banks.html 

Gig Economy and High Gas Prices

Gas Prices Turn the Gig Worker Economy Upside Down
https://www.wsj.com/economy/food-delivery-drivers-gas-prices-321107e6
Drivers and delivery workers are adjusting schedules, turning down longer rides, and working more hours to make up for lost income. 

Mean Reversion and Stock Returns

Why investors can still believe in mean reversion
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/why-investors-can-still-believe-mean-reversion-2026-04-10/
“In a moderately mean-reverting world, any strategy of selling winners and buying losers should win,” Grantham writes. “The fact that a company’s depressed profitability reverts to its average level seemed to me just the fortunes of war. Say a firm is operating in an industry that turns down. Its managers scramble around looking for ways to stop the rot… they slash costs and eventually get something right… and as profits recover the stock price does too. Conversely, when a firm is superprofitable its management becomes overconfident, it invests too much, costs rise faster than sales and margins decline.” 

One of the Stock Market’s Last Havens Is Now at Risk
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/one-of-the-stock-markets-last-havens-is-now-at-risk-7aa84e5d
Value stocks have outperformed growth stocks by the biggest margin in years.

Taiwan - The Next Chokepoint?

What China Just Learned from the Iran War
https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/china-taiwan-trump-iran-war/686738/
A blockade of Taiwan would hurt the global economy more than Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Kryptonite to America’s Economic Super Powers: Chokepoints
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/kryptonite-to-americas-economic-super-powers-chokepoints-351ee72c
The U.S. brings superior size to economic warfare, but China and Iran have fought back through control of critical economic assets.

Inflation Picks Up

U.S. Inflation Surged in March as Iran War Pushed Up Prices
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/business/economy/what-to-know-about-the-report.html
 
Construction Business Taking a Hit from Iran Conflict
https://www.wsj.com/economy/construction-business-taking-a-hit-from-iran-conflict-914cbca4
Rising prices for fuel and materials such as aluminum are pushing up costs just as they were stabilizing. “This war just trashed that.” 

How Inflation Is Eating Your Wages
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/how-the-iran-war-is-affecting-your-wages-3fe2eef5
The gas pump is eating into paychecks, especially for rank-and-file workers.

Mideast Conflict - Impact on Africa

Africa Is Losing the Iran War
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/iran-war-costs-for-africa-confirms-global-financial-architecture-is-broken-by-yemi-osinbajo-2026-04
The fallout from the latest war in the Middle East has made visible a problem that many preferred to ignore: the international financial architecture is not fit for a world of cascading shocks, tightening fiscal constraints, and rising human need. Nowhere is this more obvious than in Africa.
 
America’s War Is Adding to Africa’s Debt Burden
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/americas-iran-war-adding-to-africas-debt-burden-by-vera-songwe-2026-04
The US-Israeli war against Iran has shown, once again, that when American policy decisions push Treasury yields higher, African sovereigns pay the price. African governments must ensure that this is the last geopolitical crisis that drives up their borrowing costs through no fault of their own. 

The Iran War and America's International Standing

After Iran, America may turn against Israel
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2026/04/after-iran-american-may-turn-against-israel
On 11 February, Benjamin Netanyahu walked down the stairs in the West Wing and – this is not usual for a foreign dignitary – straight into the Situation Room. 
Inside, he tried to persuade Donald Trump to launch a war against Iran. According to The New York Times, Netanyahu promised the president that they could kill the Supreme Leader, Mossad could foment a popular rebellion and the regime would be too weak to close the Strait of Hormuz. Trump was on board: Operation Epic Fury was launched shortly afterwards. But the war didn’t work out as promised. Forty-one days later, the mullahs are still in control, Iran is charging a toll for ships to pass through the Strait and Israel is waging an increasingly brutal war in Lebanon. In other words, Trump was willingly mis-sold: what was supposed to be another Venezuela looks like an American Suez.
 
The end of the American empire
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/geopolitics/2026/04/the-end-of-the-american-empire
The president and his coterie imagined that decapitating the leadership – “getting rid of some people,” as he put it in his golf club homily – would disable the regime. But Tehran is not Caracas, from which President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were extracted in a special operation on 3 January and Venezuela handed over to the deputy leader, Delcy Rodríguez. Iran’s government is multi-layered and – for all its murderous repression of the millions who yearn for a Western way of life – deeply embedded in society. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) manage a business empire spanning oil, telecommunications, construction and banking. The Basij militias, volunteer paramilitary forces used to crush domestic resistance, receive state benefits and jobs in IRGC-linked companies. Religious foundations and clerical elites control billions of dollars of assets seized from dissidents and minorities. For these groups, losing the war means losing their property, their livelihoods and their lives. They will fight to the death. Some may welcome death in battle as an opportunity for martyrdom – an enduring and still potent element in Shia Islam. The White House screens out these facts, along with Iran’s mastery of low-cost techniques of asymmetric warfare.

Trump Has Fallen into a Familiar U.S. Foreign Policy Trap
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/11/opinion/trump-iran-war-middle-east.html

 
The Trump Administration Is in a Psychotic State
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/opinion/trump-iran-psychotic-state-institutions.html
What are the implications if the government of the world’s most powerful country is chaotic in its thinking and not reliably in touch with reality?
 
Fareed Zakaria on the Moral Cost of Trump’s War
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-fareed-zakaria.html 

Oil Prices - Spot versus Futures Market

The Oil Shock Is Worse Than You Think
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/business/energy-environment/iran-oil-prices.html
The war with Iran is preventing huge amounts of oil from flowing out of the Persian Gulf, but the prices that many people track don’t fully capture the scale of the disruption. 

High-Income Households and US Consumption

The K-Shaped Economy's Defining Statistic Has Some Problems
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the-k-shaped-economy-s-defining-statistic-has-some-problems-86570.html
 
More Americans Are Breaking into the Upper Middle Class
https://www.wsj.com/economy/more-americans-are-breaking-into-the-upper-middle-class-bf8b7cb2
 
First-Class Seats Drive Airline Profits. It Wasn’t Always This Way.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/business/airlines-first-class-seats-tickets-upgrades.html
Airlines used to give away most of their nicest seats, but they have increasingly found ways to persuade people to pay a lot for them. 

First-class airline bet is economically well-timed
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/first-class-airline-bet-is-economically-well-timed-2026-04-02/
It’s also possible that sustained high oil prices could ​hit equity markets hard, leading to a negative “wealth effect” that dents animal spirits and therefore travel ​among the world’s richest ⁠fliers. Still, markets are not quite there yet. And higher fuel costs necessarily call for higher fares. Leaning on those better able to afford it simply makes financial sense. 

U.S. Fertility Rate Decline - A Temporary Phenomenon?

Why the U.S. Fertility Rate Has Hit a Record Low
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/why-the-u-s-fertility-rate-has-hit-a-record-low-13e7c2f8
As childbearing shifts toward women 30 and older, the U.S. is moving further below the level needed to keep growing. 

Women in Their 20s May Not Be Having Babies, but by 45 Most Probably Will
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/upshot/births-decline-older-mothers.html
There are reasons to believe the record-low U.S. birthrate could be only temporary as today’s young women postpone pregnancy.

These Couples Wanted to Have Children. Rising Costs Are Stopping Them.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/26/business/children-rising-costs.html
High mortgage payments, higher childcare costs and economic uncertainty are making some people rethink their plans on starting a family.

A Challenging Environment for Forecasters

A recession is guaranteed. But when?
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/economy/recession-economy-timing

Wall Street Is Whiffing on Its Economic Forecasts
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/wall-street-prognosticators-struggle-in-whipsawing-jobs-market-5fade369
Early 2026 has seen some particularly big analyst misses, and they are adjusting to more volatility.
 
Is Economic Forecasting Still Possible?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-forecasting-under-radical-uncertainty-by-morten-nyboe-tabor-2026-04
Much of the forecasting profession—and the economic theory that underpins it—still defaults to single baselines that treat the future as a probabilistic replica of the past. But when the structure of the economy changes in unforeseeable ways, as it is now, forecasters must acknowledge that many futures are possible. 

Labor Economics: Interesting Items

Why More People Are Dropping Out of the Job Market
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/why-more-people-are-dropping-out-of-the-job-market-6e9f4eb4
An aging population and Trump’s immigration crackdown have pushed a key labor metric to a half-century low, excluding the pandemic. That has some economists nervous. 

The Workers Opting to Retire Instead of Taking On AI
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/the-workers-opting-to-retire-instead-of-taking-on-ai-3400fb92
Their careers spanned the personal computing, internet and smartphone waves. But some older workers see AI’s arrival as the cue to exit. 

Blue-Collar Work Has Plateaued, Narrowing Options for Young Workers
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/business/economy/blue-collar-trades-jobs.html
Skilled electricians, plumbers and factory workers are in demand, but job openings have dropped.

An Economist’s Quest to Solve America’s Wage Problem
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/an-economists-quest-to-solve-americas-wage-problem
Arindrajit Dube argues that the answer is empowering workers and setting mandatory wage standards across industries. 

History Lesson: Most Devastating Military Conflicts

The 4 Most Destructive Conflicts in All of Human History
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/4-most-destructive-conflicts-all-human-history-162752

From Gemini AI:
When adjusted for global population, the Mongol conquests (13th century) and the Three Kingdoms period in China (2nd/3rd century) were far more devastating than World War II. While WWII caused 70–85 million deaths (roughly 3-4% of the population), the Mongol conquests killed an estimated 11-13% of the world population, and the Three Kingdoms era may have wiped out 13-17%.

Here are the biggest wars adjusted for global population:

• Mongol Conquests (1200–1300): Estimated to have killed 20-60 million, representing roughly 5-13% of the world population at the time.
• Three Kingdoms Period (220–280): This conflict claimed roughly 34 million lives, equivalent to roughly 13-17% of the global population.
• The An Lushan Rebellion (755–763): Estimates suggest this conflict killed up to 16% of the world's population.
• Taiping Rebellion (1850–1864): An extremely violent civil war in China, which caused 20-70 million deaths, or about 1.4-2.6% of the world population.

While World War II remains the deadliest in absolute numbers (highest total death count), these earlier conflicts were far more catastrophic relative to the smaller total number of people living at those times.