Wall Street's 'escapism' - irrational, yet completely logical
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-streets-escapism-irrational-yet-completely-logical-2026-04-16/
Maybe markets are smart not to panic. Adam Tooze, economic historian and professor at Columbia University, says the "geopolitical world" has cried wolf so much in recent years that investors have become inured to the doomsday howls, just as they have become de-sensitized to the unpredictable and erratic tendencies of Trump.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-streets-escapism-irrational-yet-completely-logical-2026-04-16/
Maybe markets are smart not to panic. Adam Tooze, economic historian and professor at Columbia University, says the "geopolitical world" has cried wolf so much in recent years that investors have become inured to the doomsday howls, just as they have become de-sensitized to the unpredictable and erratic tendencies of Trump.
It’s Getting Harder to Tell Investing from Gambling, and It’s Not Your Fault
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/its-getting-harder-to-tell-investing-from-gambling-and-its-not-your-fault-3973ddd5
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/its-getting-harder-to-tell-investing-from-gambling-and-its-not-your-fault-3973ddd5
In economic theory, your attitude toward risk is supposed to remain stable, and you’ll use all relevant information when making investment decisions.
In the real world, your attitude toward risk depends partly on who you are, but also on what you’ve lived through. And the data you’ll rely on is a mix of recent history and whatever stands out most vividly from your own experience.
In the real world, your attitude toward risk depends partly on who you are, but also on what you’ve lived through. And the data you’ll rely on is a mix of recent history and whatever stands out most vividly from your own experience.
Why the Stock Market Makes No Sense Right Now
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/opinion/wall-street-markets-iran-ai.html
The Stock Market Sounds an Alarm for the First Time in 25 Years. Here's Where History Says the S&P 500 Is Headed Next.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-sounds-alarm-first-015000710.html
Generally, when an analyst is discussing whether the market is over- or undervalued, they are referring to earnings. In other words, Wall Street benchmarks the average price-to-earnings (P/E) or forward earnings multiples across the index against historical thresholds to determine whether the market is frothy.
Don't get me wrong: Analyzing these metrics can be quite helpful. But in my eyes, traditional valuation multiples fall short at capturing more nuanced valuation dynamics. Instead, I choose to look at the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio.
The CAPE ratio is pretty nifty because it accounts for earnings over the past 10 years. By casting its net this wide, the CAPE ratio inherently captures and smooths out different economic cycles, inflation levels, and one-time events that influence earnings quality in the market.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-sounds-alarm-first-015000710.html
Generally, when an analyst is discussing whether the market is over- or undervalued, they are referring to earnings. In other words, Wall Street benchmarks the average price-to-earnings (P/E) or forward earnings multiples across the index against historical thresholds to determine whether the market is frothy.
Don't get me wrong: Analyzing these metrics can be quite helpful. But in my eyes, traditional valuation multiples fall short at capturing more nuanced valuation dynamics. Instead, I choose to look at the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio.
The CAPE ratio is pretty nifty because it accounts for earnings over the past 10 years. By casting its net this wide, the CAPE ratio inherently captures and smooths out different economic cycles, inflation levels, and one-time events that influence earnings quality in the market.