Britain's Welfare State

The Welfare State Is Crushing Britain
https://www.wsj.com/world/uk/united-kingdom-welfare-disability-payouts-737d77a0
The U.K.’s welfare bill has ballooned, its borrowing costs are now higher than any G-7 nation and it’s paying more for its debt than even spendthrift France. 

Shifting Fortunes - EM versus DM Debt

Rich Countries Are Now on Front Lines as World’s Risk Map Shifts
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/rich-countries-now-front-lines-110000008.html  
 
Related:
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/european-debt-crisis-risks-risen-064109209.html 

Risk of a Sovereign Bond Crisis

Will bonds blow up?
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/10/08/will-bonds-blow-up
A government-debt crisis is looming.
 
Turbulent bond markets threaten some countries more than others
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/10/08/turbulent-bond-markets-threaten-some-countries-more-than-others
For those where interest rates outstrip economic growth, trouble looms.

France Is Veering Toward a Potential Debt Crisis, a Warning to the World
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/08/business/france-bond-yields.html
French bond investors are demanding sharply higher interest rates, a cautionary development for other high-debt countries.

 
France’s Economy Is Trapped in a Negative Feedback Loop
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/frances-economy-is-trapped-in-a-negative-feedback-loop-509598a9
Uncertainty about whether the country can fix its finances has itself started to weigh on economic activity.
 
U.S. Budget Deficit Jumps to Nearly $2 Trillion
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/u-s-deficit-clocks-in-just-under-2-trillion-7e8e9eb3
U.S. finances are stuck in a rut that alarms policymakers, but hasn’t moved them to change course. 

China's Reliance on Exports

The Hidden Policies That Power China’s Export Boom
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/06/business/china-exports-currency.html
Huge tax breaks and a weak currency sustain exports, widen the government budget deficit and complicate the country’s efforts to rebalance its economy. 

Is France Headed Towards a Fiscal Crisis?

France’s Appetite for ‘Magic Money’ Has Turned into a Debt Bomb
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/france-debt-bonds-spending-c7981557
After years of overspending, the country has emerged as one of Europe’s weakest links. Investors are bracing for things to get worse.

French bond contagion fears are rattling the euro
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-bond-contagion-fears-are-rattling-euro-2026-10-05/

 
Related:
https://www.ft.com/content/9b252b46-a87c-45e7-a09a-45a39ce077b8 

Europe and Economic Dynamism

Closing Europe’s Dynamism Deficit
https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/why-europe-is-falling-behind-what-to-do-by-carl-benedikt-frey-2026-09
Europe has built an economic framework that protects yesterday’s champions at the expense of tomorrow’s potential winners. To remain competitive, sovereign, and secure in the 21st century, it will need a new model geared toward promoting domestic innovation and commercialization at scale. 

Related:
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/why-europe-could-be-real-winner-ai-boom-2026-10-02/

Rejuvenating China's Economy

China is giving its economy a big shot in the arm
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/10/01/china-is-giving-its-economy-a-big-shot-in-the-arm
A massive infrastructure scheme may give the country a sorely needed boost—and help rebalance the world economy. 

Globalization and Capital Taxation

Bachas, Pierre, Matthew Fisher-Post, Anders Jensen, and Gabriel Zucman. 2026. "Globalization, Capital Taxation, and Development: Evidence from a Macrohistorical Database." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 18 (4): 509–49.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/app.20240746
This paper builds and analyzes a new global macrohistorical database of effective tax rates on capital and labor in 154 countries. We establish a new stylized fact: While effective capital tax rates fell in developed countries between 1965 and 2018, they rose in developing countries after 1990. Multiple country-, sector-, and firm-level research designs suggest that trade openness contributed to this rise by increasing the share of output produced in corporations and larger firms, where effective capital taxation is higher. In contrast to a common view, globalization appears in many countries to have supported governments' ability to tax capital. 

US - A Contributor to Economic Instability

The World Economy Is Becoming Wary of the U.S.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/16/business/trump-debt-sanctions-global-economy.html
America’s position of global economic stability is starting to look shakier as the Trump administration piles on debt and doubles down on sanctions.
 
E.U. Offers to Make Canada ‘Associate Member’ as U.S. Ties Weaken for Both
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/16/world/europe/eu-canada-associate-member.html
Canada and the European Union have been confronting an increasingly challenging relationship with the United States under President Trump. 

Labor Force Participation Rates in Europe

On Europe’s economy, let’s ditch the lazy stereotypes
https://www.ft.com/content/362b3139-b0de-42f1-83db-67d4572a66ce
Despite careful, consistent labor market reforms, the continent has not lived down to its image as work-shy. 

The Ultimate Safe Asset

Why are European countries moving their gold out of North America?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgyn8q8gqxo 

Global Bond Sell-Off

There Are Four Forces Pressuring Bonds: War Is No. 1
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/there-are-four-forces-pressuring-bonds-war-is-no-1-68d3ace9
Fiscal worries, a new Federal Reserve chairman and even the flood of AI bonds are helping drive the recent climb in yields.
 
The Bond Market Issues World Leaders a Failing Grade
https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-bond-market-issues-world-leaders-a-failing-grade-621cf4dc
Nothing in this week’s G-20 suggested an end to the deficits, inflation and geopolitical disruptions that are roiling investors.

America has a whopping debt. But Europe has the whopping debt problem
https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/09/03/america-has-a-whopping-debt-but-europe-has-the-whopping-debt-problem
The French-size problem at the heart of the EU.

Borrowing Isn’t the Bond Market’s Only Concern—Growth Is Too
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/borrowing-isnt-the-bond-markets-only-concerngrowth-is-too-91596036
Many governments look more prudent than the U.S. right now, but aging workforces and anemic growth mean debts look scary.

Global Bond Sell-Off Puts Investors on Edge
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/01/business/bond-yields-debt.html
Government borrowing costs are hitting multi-decade highs around the world, reflecting anxiety about debt levels, deficits and inflation.  

Bond Yields Around the World Soar in Challenge to Government Borrowing
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/bond-yields-around-the-world-soar-in-challenge-to-government-borrowing-c519c53f
The runup in interest rates has profound consequences for the global economy, heaping pressure on everyone from home buyers to governments.
 
How to understand the current puzzle in bonds and equities
https://www.ft.com/content/b189d31a-5e56-471e-91d1-c319aa68f174

Climate Shocks and the Global Economy

The Summer That Scorched French Grapes, English Gardens—and Europe’s Economy
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/the-summer-that-scorched-french-grapes-english-gardensand-europes-economy-a7b33771
Record heat withered crops, strained businesses and upended everyday life. The changes happened faster than anyone expected. 

The Strongest El Niño in a Generation Is Wreaking Havoc on Global Economy

https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/the-strongest-el-nino-in-a-generation-is-wreaking-havoc-on-global-economy-b6fece16
The weather phenomenon is already roiling industries, from shipping to copper to fish feed.

Will Canada Join the EU?

What If Canada Joined the E.U.?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/global-notes/what-if-canada-joined-the-eu
The Trump Administration’s trade war with Canada has pushed a fringe idea into mainstream conversation, on both sides of the Atlantic. 

Europe Must Stand with Canada Against Trump
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eu-must-stand-with-canada-against-trump-by-philippe-legrain-2026-08

Dethroning King Dollar

King Donald Is Dethroning the Dollar
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/28/opinion/trump-dollar-currency.html
 
Will Financial Innovation Dethrone the Dollar?
https://www.ft.com/content/1481e787-77dc-4d54-8871-8ffb369e5dd3 

AI and the Global Economy

How the AI Investment Craze Is Keeping the Global Economy Afloat
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/how-the-ai-investment-craze-is-keeping-the-global-economy-afloat-0d62c000
Growth is holding up despite renewed tensions over trade, geopolitics and bond markets, though the AI boom’s outsize role is a growing concern. 

Bond Market Chaos

Think Treasurys Are Having a Rough Summer? It’s Even Uglier Abroad
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/think-treasurys-are-having-a-rough-summer-its-even-uglier-abroad-7224cf70
Countries with large debt burdens—France, Italy, the U.K., Japan—have come under the heaviest pressure in recent months.
 
The Bond Market Chaos Is Coming for Us All
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/28/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-robin-wigglesworth.html
 
Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/27/opinion/bessent-warsh-treasury-fed-bonds-trump.html 

Mass Migration - The Case of Spain

Quo Vadis, Hispania? Part One
https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/quo-vadis-hispania-part-one/
 
Quo Vadis Hispania? Part Two
https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/quo-vadis-hispania-part-two/
Mass immigration is arguably the most important demographic force at play in Europe today. It is also one of the most salient—and polarizing—issues in contemporary European politics. 

When Following the Rules Leads to Disaster
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/08/ceuta-morocco-crisis-immigration/688149/
A supreme-court decision helped cause the Ceuta disaster.
 
Schengen’s Greatest Failure
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/2026/07/migration-splitting-europe-apart/688137/
The Ceuta crisis is undermining an agreement designed to foster “solidarity.” 

Crude Oil versus Refinery Products

Jeff Currie, Real Macro CEO, on the latest oil price trends and ongoing choke points for fuel products
https://youtu.be/uuvIwco01ks
 
The Price of Diesel, the ‘Workhorse’ of Fuels, Nears a Record High
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/26/business/energy-environment/diesel-prices-iran-war-oil.html
The cost of the fuel, used in farm machinery, trucks and other heavy equipment, has surged because of the war in Iran and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.  

A Moronic Trade War

The Real Winner of the Trade War with Canada 
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/26/opinion/us-canada-trade-cars-trucks-china.html

The Dumbest Trade War Revisited
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-dumbest-trade-war-revisited-57c9fe81
Trump’s decision to escalate a tariff brawl with Canada makes no economic or political sense.

Trump’s trade war with Canada will blow up in his face
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/08/25/trumps-trade-war-with-canada-will-blow-up-in-his-face/
The White House will come to regret its latest incursion as much as its assault on Iran. 

The U.S. isn’t negotiating trade with Canada. This is a shakedown
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-us-isnt-negotiating-trade-with-canada-this-is-a-shakedown/
Related:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-in-defying-trump-canada-is-setting-an-example-for-the-world/