A recession is guaranteed. But when?
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/economy/recession-economy-timing
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/economy/recession-economy-timing
Wall Street Is Whiffing on Its Economic Forecasts
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/wall-street-prognosticators-struggle-in-whipsawing-jobs-market-5fade369
Early 2026 has seen some particularly big analyst misses, and they are adjusting to more volatility.
Is Economic Forecasting Still Possible?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-forecasting-under-radical-uncertainty-by-morten-nyboe-tabor-2026-04
Much of the forecasting profession—and the economic theory that underpins it—still defaults to single baselines that treat the future as a probabilistic replica of the past. But when the structure of the economy changes in unforeseeable ways, as it is now, forecasters must acknowledge that many futures are possible.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/wall-street-prognosticators-struggle-in-whipsawing-jobs-market-5fade369
Early 2026 has seen some particularly big analyst misses, and they are adjusting to more volatility.
Is Economic Forecasting Still Possible?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-forecasting-under-radical-uncertainty-by-morten-nyboe-tabor-2026-04
Much of the forecasting profession—and the economic theory that underpins it—still defaults to single baselines that treat the future as a probabilistic replica of the past. But when the structure of the economy changes in unforeseeable ways, as it is now, forecasters must acknowledge that many futures are possible.