Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Is it Time to Get Worried About US Equities?

Telegraph's Jeremy Warner:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/26/stock-markets-threaten-to-fracture-under-pressure-from-trum/
It’s a mug’s game predicting when bull markets are going to end. So far, stock prices have casually brushed aside virtually every shock thrown at them – from pestilence to war and growing protectionism – and could easily carry on in the same vein for a long time to come.
But as Herbert Stein, President Richard Nixon’s economic adviser, observed: “If something cannot carry on forever, it will stop.” Hard to know when, though.


The Risk Premium for Holding Stocks Over Bonds Is Vanishing
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-risk-premium-for-holding-stocks-over-bonds-is-vanishing-95be5b9d
The gap between the market’s earnings yield and bond yields has narrowed, a measure that has at times predicted subpar stock returns.
 
Jeremy Grantham on why this market will fall by 50% but nobody will warn you
https://youtu.be/M-dnlf_8W5o 

The Stock Market Has Never Been So Good When People Have Felt So Bad
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/stock-market-consumer-sentiment-af088e87
Stocks are partying like it’s 1999, but Americans haven’t been this gloomy in 70 years.