Identifying Recessions Is More Art Than Science
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-15/are-we-in-a-recession-in-2022-it-s-still-an-economic-judgment-call
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-15/are-we-in-a-recession-in-2022-it-s-still-an-economic-judgment-call
Advance Estimate of 2022Q2 GDP
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2022-advance-estimate
US Economy Shrinks for a Second Quarter, Raising
Recession Odds
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-28/us-economy-shrinks-for-a-second-quarter-raising-recession-odds
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2022-advance-estimate
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-28/us-economy-shrinks-for-a-second-quarter-raising-recession-odds
If the U.S. Is in a Recession, It’s a Very Strange One
https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-economy-unemployment-jobs-11656947596
https://www.wsj.com/articles/recession-economy-unemployment-jobs-11656947596
Related:
What causes a recession?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2022/what-causes-a-recession/
My take: Is a recession inevitable?
Some analysts even believe that the U.S. is already in a recession. Given the heightened uncertainty surrounding the near-term economic outlook, there is a need for an objective assessment of the risks and headwinds facing the American economy.
It is helpful to clarify what economists mean by a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of business cycle turning points in the U.S., identifies and dates recessions based on “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”
Besides closely monitoring the “expenditure-side and income-side estimates of real gross domestic product (GDP and GDI)”, NBER also uses a variety of other indicators of real economic activity, including “real personal income less transfers, nonfarm payroll employment, employment as measured by the household survey, real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes, and industrial production.”
It is possible that incoming data initially indicate that the U.S. experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth during the first half of 2022. But it is worth noting that two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, while often a useful rule-of-thumb, is not the official definition of a recession in the U.S.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2022/what-causes-a-recession/
Some analysts even believe that the U.S. is already in a recession. Given the heightened uncertainty surrounding the near-term economic outlook, there is a need for an objective assessment of the risks and headwinds facing the American economy.
It is helpful to clarify what economists mean by a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of business cycle turning points in the U.S., identifies and dates recessions based on “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”
Besides closely monitoring the “expenditure-side and income-side estimates of real gross domestic product (GDP and GDI)”, NBER also uses a variety of other indicators of real economic activity, including “real personal income less transfers, nonfarm payroll employment, employment as measured by the household survey, real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes, and industrial production.”
It is possible that incoming data initially indicate that the U.S. experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth during the first half of 2022. But it is worth noting that two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, while often a useful rule-of-thumb, is not the official definition of a recession in the U.S.
