Initial release of nonfarm payroll numbers may be consistently overstating the health of the U.S. labor market. Compare the 1st release with the 2nd and 3rd revised data releases during the first few months of 2025:
US Nonfarm Payrolls – Pay Attention to Revised Data
Source: BLS (https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm)
Month | Year | Seasonally adjusted | |||||
Over-the-month change | Revision* in over-the-month change | ||||||
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 2nd - 1st | 3rd - 2nd | 3rd - 1st | ||
Jan. | 2025 | 143 | 125 | 111 | -18 | -14 | -32 |
Feb. | 2025 | 151 | 117 | 102 | -34 | -15 | -49 |
Mar. | 2025 | 228 | 185 | -43 | |||
Apr. | 2025 | 177 | |||||
Related:
Some of America's Most Important Economic Data Is Decaying | Odd Lots Podcast
https://youtu.be/nfgpqVixeIw
Some of America's Most Important Economic Data Is Decaying | Odd Lots Podcast
https://youtu.be/nfgpqVixeIw