Friday, May 2, 2025

US Dollar - Past, Present, and the Future

This time really is different for the dollar, writes Kenneth Rogoff
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/05/05/this-time-really-is-different-for-the-dollar-writes-kenneth-rogoff
The greenback was already in decline. Donald Trump will accelerate the process.


Trump’s Misguided Plan to Weaken the Dollar by Ken Rogoff
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-administration-mar-a-lago-plan-to-weaken-dollar-is-deeply-flawed-by-kenneth-rogoff-2025-05
The so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord, proposed by Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran, aims to reduce the United States’ current-account deficit by weakening the dollar. But this plan is based on a deeply flawed understanding of the relationship between the dollar’s global status and US deindustrialization.

Why a Pact to Weaken the Dollar Makes No Sense
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/08/dollar-trade-trump-exchange-rate-plaza-accord-mar-a-lago-us-treasury-bonds/
A proposal to reprise a Reagan-era currency agreement has serious flaws.


Prepare for the Global Euro by Helene Rey
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eurozone-should-show-economic-leadership-as-the-us-retreats-by-helene-rey-2025-05
After serving as the world's hegemon for decades, the US appears to be renouncing the role by refusing to supply global public goods and eroding confidence in the dollar. This creates an opportunity for the eurozone to capture some of the exorbitant privilege long enjoyed by the US.

Farewell, Ye Mighty Dollar. Was Nice Knowing You.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/05/opinion/weak-us-dollar.html 


Ken Rogoff on Dollar Decline, Debt Worries and Fed Independence
https://youtu.be/kCVqGeWDZdk
Trump vs. the Dollar
https://youtu.be/pT2cohNt6a4
Book Talk: King Dollar with Paul Blustein
https://www.youtube.com/live/QiFaXnOebRQ 

Trump Is Right About Trade Imbalances. Does He Know How to Fix Them?
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/trump-is-right-about-trade-imbalances-does-he-know-how-to-fix-them-96ae3fcb
The great economist John Maynard Keynes once proposed an international system to eliminate trade surpluses and deficits. Now the ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ aims to bring that idea to life.


My recent take:
Dollar collapse: The crisis is no longer just theoretical by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR, The Hill - 04/28/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/5270094-trump-tariffs-dollar-decline/

My 2011 paper:
Jayakumar, V., Weiss, B. Global reserve currency system: Why will the dollar standard give way to a tripolar currency orderFront. Econ. China 6, 92–130 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11459-011-0124-6