Too Early to Declare Victory on the Inflation Front?

The Most Important Debate on Wall Street: Is Inflation Licked?
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-most-important-debate-on-wall-street-is-inflation-licked-3662e2ff
Not everyone is sure it is coasting to the Fed’s target rate

Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes Are Probably Over, but Officials Are Reluctant to Say So
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-hikes-b19c2ab2
 
The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure Eased in October
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/business/economy/pce-inflation-october.html
 
Coming Down Inflation Is No Walk on Table Mountain
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-01/inflation-descent-table-mountain-scenario-is-deadlier-than-it-looks

HISTORY’S INFLATION LESSONS
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/History-inflation-lessons-Ari-Ratnovski
ANIL ARI and LEV RATNOVSKI:
Aided by the sharpest rise in interest rates in a generation, inflation has started to subside at last. Headline inflation in the United States and across much of Europe has halved from about 10 percent last year to less than 5 percent today. The latest conflict in the Middle East has, for now at least, not had a large impact on oil prices. But it is still too soon for policymakers to celebrate victory over inflation.
Our recent study of over 100 inflation shocks since the 1970s offers two reasons for caution. First, history teaches us that inflation is persistent. It takes years to “resolve” inflation by reducing it to the rate that prevailed before the initial shock. Forty percent of countries in our study failed to resolve inflation shocks even after five years. It took the remaining 60 percent an average of three years to return inflation to pre-shock rates.

Profile of LAWRENCE KATZ

LAWRENCE F. KATZ: THE INEQUALITY ECONOMIST
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/PIE-the-inequality-economist 

Sweden - No Longer a Paradise

How gang violence took hold of Sweden – in five charts
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/30/how-gang-violence-took-hold-of-sweden-in-five-charts
Scandinavian country has second highest gun crime death rate in Europe, with poverty and inequality among driving factors 

Paying for the Green Transition

Why No One Wants to Pay for the Green Transition
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/why-no-one-wants-to-pay-for-the-green-transition-aed6ba74
Investors and consumers are balking at the costs of replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy, highlighting the painful economics of climate mitigation. 

How rich countries can help poor countries fight climate change
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/30/climate-change-rich-countries-poor-service-exports/

The True Legacy of Henry Kissinger

What Henry Kissinger wrought
https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/11/30/16454260/henry-kissinger-obituary-cold-war-100
One of America’s most important statesmen gave the world a series of diplomatic breakthroughs, and hundreds of thousands of bodies.

Henry Kissinger, the Hypocrite
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/opinion/henry-kissinger-the-hypocrite.html

Henry Kissinger’s central role in the U.S. carpet bombing of Cambodia
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/30/henry-kissinger-cambodia-bombing-war/
Nowhere is the debate over the legacy of former U.S. secretary of state Henry Kissinger more searing than in the countries that bore the brunt of his military polices, such as Cambodia. Historians say his decisions led to decades of violence that have continued to haunt Cambodian society.
For many in the country, Kissinger’s impact was not abstract but visceral and continues even after his death. Land mines planted during Cambodia’s three-decade-long civil war, which was driven in part by U.S. interference, are still exploding today. In neighboring Vietnam and Laos, officials are also still undergoing the painstaking process of identifying and removing unexploded ordnance from a war that Kissinger helped to wage five decades ago.

 
The People Who Didn’t Matter to Henry Kissinger
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/11/henry-kissingers-indifference-worlds-most-helpless-people/676177/
Lauded for his strategic insights, the former secretary of state is better remembered for his callousness toward the victims of global conflict. 

Bukele’s Bitcoin Mess

Bukele’s Bitcoin Mess and the U.S.-Backed Bank That Enabled It
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/29/cabei-dictators-bank-central-america-el-salvador-bukele-bitcoin-us-china-competition-debt/
The United States has supported the so-called dictators’ bank to rival China in Central America—and funded El Salvador’s authoritarian descent in the process. 

India, US, and Realpolitik

India, US, and Realpolitik
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/29/us-charges-indian-citizen-assassination-plot-pannun-sikh-separatist/
For the United States, publicly upbraiding India could damage a strategic partnership that has cost significant political capital across a few administrations. Furthermore, public knowledge of its own record of targeted assassinations leaves it open to charges of hypocrisy. Under the circumstances, it may be best for Washington to address these concerns quietly with New Delhi. It also may behoove the United States—and its close ally Canada—not to overlook India’s legitimate concerns about the actions of some members of the Sikh diaspora, which impinge on India’s sovereignty and national security.
Many countries, especially the United States, have carried out targeted assassinations on foreign soil—including strikes against those designated as terrorists or involved in terror plots. During the Cold War, the United States authorized attempts to kill foreign leaders whose policies were deemed inimical to U.S. interests.

Changing Fortunes - Europe's Periphery is Back

Europe’s Once Crisis-Torn Periphery Turns Bond Market Darling
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-28/europe-bond-markets-see-stunning-reversal-as-france-germany-on-back-foot
Related: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/europes-once-crisis-torn-periphery-050005878.html 

Antitrust and Big Business

The Chicken Tycoons vs. the Antitrust Hawks
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/29/magazine/chicken-industry-antitrust.html
As part of a broader campaign against anticompetitive practices, the Biden administration has taken on the chicken industry. Why have the results been so paltry? 

The Monopolists Fight Back
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/google-trial-big-tech-lobbying-shows-why-antitrust-enforcement-needed-by-eric-posner-2023-11
With the Google trial having revealed the pervasiveness of anticompetitive behavior in the tech industry, big corporations are turning to Congress to block antitrust agencies from ramping up enforcement efforts after decades of neglect. Now that the industry’s long honeymoon is over, the real struggle is beginning.

Revival of Sanskrit

Why it's worth learning ancient Sanskrit in the modern world
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Tea-Leaves/Why-it-s-worth-learning-ancient-Sanskrit-in-the-modern-world
India’s classical language is making a comeback via Telegram and YouTube 

Corporate Borrowing Costs

Corporate America Has Dodged the Damage of High Rates. For Now.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/28/business/economy/corporate-interest-rates.html
Small businesses and risky borrowers face rising costs from the Federal Reserve’s moves, but the biggest companies have avoided taking a hit. 

Pakistan's Treatment of Afghan Refugees

Pakistan makes Afghan refugees pay the price for economic crisis
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Pakistan-makes-Afghan-refugees-pay-the-price-for-economic-crisis
Threatened with default, government tries reform whilst looking for scapegoats 

India versus China

The Clearest Sign of India’s Very Good Year
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/the-clearest-sign-of-indias-very-good-year-460fa535
Currencies around the world have weakened against the dollar, but the rupee has held strong, as virtually everything has gone right for India.

Gold Bars and Tokyo Apartments: How Money Is Flowing Out of China.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/28/business/china-money-overseas.html
Chinese families are sending money overseas, a sign of worry about the country’s economic and political future. But a cheaper currency is also helping exports.

Mumbai leads world in number of IPOs as new China listings fall
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Market-Spotlight/Mumbai-leads-world-in-number-of-IPOs-as-new-China-listings-fall

Return of Military Conflicts

We Know War Is Awful, So Why Is It Making a Comeback?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/opinion/war-israel-gaza-tigray.html
Peter Coy:
Economists and political scientists used to believe that miscalculation was perfectly consistent with rationality. They thought that political leaders who were fully rational could nevertheless commonly make mistakes based on incorrect information about their opponents’ power or resolve.
But in an influential article in 1995, James Fearon, a Stanford political scientist, then at the University of Chicago, showed that in most cases (not all), a rational leader should be able to clear up confusion and make decisions with sound information. Given how destructive and deadly wars are, political leaders have a strong incentive to use “diplomacy or other forms of communication to avoid such costly miscommunications,” Fearon wrote in “Rationalist Explanations for War,” which was published in the journal International Organization. 

Seeking Talent

Dreaming of a fresh start? These towns and cities will pay you as much as $15,000 to move there.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/dreaming-fresh-start-towns-cities-153047851.html

Sunak on the UK Economy

 

The Dividend-Stock Trade Misfired in 2023

Billions Wiped Out as Stock-Safety Trade on Wall Street Misfires
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billions-wiped-stock-safety-trade-110000019.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-27/billions-wiped-out-as-stock-safety-trade-on-wall-street-misfires
Reeling from a bear market last year, beaten-up investors decided to send more than $60 billion to exchange-traded funds focusing on dividends.
Eleven months later, the trade is misfiring. 

The Future of Coding

A Coder Considers the Waning Days of the Craft
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/11/20/a-coder-considers-the-waning-days-of-the-craft
Coding has always felt to me like an endlessly deep and rich domain. Now I find myself wanting to write a eulogy for it. 

Citigroup's Long-Term Struggles

Citigroup and the 'financial supermarket' experiment

US Real Estate Market - Supply, Demand and Price Determination

Where in America are we actually building new housing?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/11/24/counties-building-new-housing/
Given soaring home prices, the law of supply and demand suggests that developers should be building like crazy. And in a few places, they are. We take a look. 

The Price Is Wrong for Housing

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/the-price-is-wrong-for-housing-dff9d8bc

Even if mortgage rates come down, today’s high home prices don’t seem sustainable.

Fed Pivot: Will This Time be Different?

Investors See Interest-Rate Cuts Coming Soon, Recession or Not
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/investors-see-interest-rate-cuts-coming-soon-recession-or-not-d30646c9
Recent data has fueled bets that cuts could come under a variety of circumstances
 
 
The stock market incorrectly priced in dovish Fed pivots 6 times in the last few years. Will this 7th time be any different?
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-fed-rate-cuts-inflation-recession-bond-yields-2023-11
Related:
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20231116351/seventh-time-a-charm-here-are-the-other-six-times-the-market-wrongly-thought-thered-be-a-dovish-pivot 

My take from August 2022:
Are investors right in expecting a dovish Fed pivot?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3582559-are-investors-right-in-expecting-a-dovish-fed-pivot/
If investors are indeed misreading the Fed’s commitment to maintaining a tight policy for a prolonged period and are failing to adequately take into account future inflation risks, then recent stock and bond market rallies may well prove to be premature and even counterproductive.

A Jobs Boom in the Healthcare Sector

Hot Healthcare Hiring Bolsters Cooling U.S. Labor Market
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/hot-healthcare-hiring-bolsters-cooling-u-s-labor-market-336a7b27
The industry could serve as a strong job generator for years as an aging population and Covid-19 fuel widespread worker shortages and greater needs for healthcare services. 

Politics and Corruption

A Troubling Trump Pardon and a Link to the Kushners
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/26/us/politics/trump-pardon-braun.html
A commutation for a drug smuggler named Jonathan Braun had broader implications than previously known. It puts new focus on how Donald Trump would use his clemency powers in a second term. 

After helping prince’s rise, Trump and Kushner benefit from Saudi funds
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/12/after-helping-princes-rise-trump-kushner-benefit-saudi-funds/ 

Different Academic Standards for Asian Americans

Post-affirmative action, Asian American families are more stressed than ever about college admissions
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-11-26/post-affirmative-action-asian-american-students-stress-college-admissions
https://www.yahoo.com/news/post-affirmative-action-asian-american-110019099.html
Won Jong Kim, director of the college consulting firm Boston Education, described several students who got into elite schools.
Anna, who got into Harvard, took AP Calculus AB in 7th grade. Ben, who got into Stanford, took 15 AP classes.
Esther’s academics weren’t “stellar,” Kim said — only a 4.3 GPA, 1520 SAT and nine AP courses. But in her personal statement, she wrote about her mother’s fight with breast cancer. And she was admitted to the University of Pennsylvania. 

Harvard under fire for helping elite skip the queue
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67523348
A recent paper published by Opportunity Insights, a research group based out of Harvard University and Brown University, found that legacy applicants were four-times as likely as non-legacy applicants with the same test scores to be admitted.
 
Diversifying Society’s Leaders? The Determinants and Causal Effects of Admission to Highly Selective Private Colleges
https://www.nber.org/papers/w31492
Leadership positions in the U.S. are disproportionately held by graduates of a few highly selective private colleges. Could such colleges — which currently have many more students from high-income families than low-income families — increase the socioeconomic diversity of America’s leaders by changing their admissions policies? We use anonymized admissions data from several private and public colleges linked to income tax records and SAT and ACT test scores to study this question. Children from families in the top 1% are more than twice as likely to attend an Ivy-Plus college (Ivy League, Stanford, MIT, Duke, and Chicago) as those from middle-class families with comparable SAT/ACT scores. Two-thirds of this gap is due to higher admissions rates for students with comparable test scores from high-income families; the remaining third is due to differences in rates of application and matriculation. In contrast, children from high-income families have no admissions advantage at flagship public colleges. The high-income admissions advantage at private colleges is driven by three factors: (1) preferences for children of alumni, (2) weight placed on non-academic credentials, which tend to be stronger for students applying from private high schools that have affluent student bodies, and (3) recruitment of athletes, who tend to come from higher-income families. Using a new research design that isolates idiosyncratic variation in admissions decisions for waitlisted applicants, we show that attending an Ivy-Plus college instead of the average highly selective public flagship institution increases students’ chances of reaching the top 1% of the earnings distribution by 60%, nearly doubles their chances of attending an elite graduate school, and triples their chances of working at a prestigious firm. Ivy-Plus colleges have much smaller causal effects on average earnings, reconciling our findings with prior work that found smaller causal effects using variation in matriculation decisions conditional on admission. Adjusting for the value-added of the colleges that students attend, the three key factors that give children from high-income families an admissions advantage are uncorrelated or negatively correlated with post-college outcomes, whereas SAT/ACT scores and academic credentials are highly predictive of post-college success. We conclude that highly selective private colleges currently amplify the persistence of privilege across generations, but could diversify the socioeconomic backgrounds of America’s leaders by changing their admissions practices.

Vienna's Central Role in the Rise of the Modern West

The Untold Story of Vienna’s Global Influence
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/25/vienna-intellectual-history-modern-west-austria-european-thought/
A new book argues the Austrian capital produced the intellectual basis of much of the modern West—for better and sometimes for worse. 

Portugal’s Golden Visa Scheme - Law of Unintended Consequences Strikes Again

Is Portugal’s Golden Visa Scheme Worth It?
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/25/portugal-golden-visa-investment-european-union-immigration/
Wealthy investors pulled the country out of a financial crisis, but they also sent house prices skyrocketing.
 
Portugal's residents struggling with rising rents
https://youtu.be/j5zWC5o2Ofo 

Are Local Newspapers Necessary?

A Powerful Tool for Fighting Corruption Is Going Extinct
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/26/opinion/local-newspapers-democracy-journalism.html
In the early 1900s, America had about 24,000 weekly and daily papers. The number dropped throughout the 20th century, and the pace has greatly accelerated over the past two decades. “Today we have only 6,000 surviving newspapers, many struggling to survive,” said the report. And they are continuing to vanish at the rate of more than two a week. Some areas have become “news deserts,” in Ms. Abernathy’s term, with no reliable news source — print, digital or broadcast. Most are in high-poverty areas. 

Climate Negotiations

The latest round of international climate negotiations is being held in a petrostate. What could go wrong?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-weekend-essay/the-road-to-dubai 

How green is the energy revolution really?

Survey Responses and Quality of Economic Data

Economists May Have Been Flying Blind All Along
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-11-24/economists-may-have-been-flying-blind-all-along
Declining response rates to official surveys raise the possibility that government and central bank officials have been making decisions based on flawed data. 

Data Quality Is Still a Problem: Seasonal Distortions and Falling Response Rates
https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/11/27/487547ae-0218-4f2a-b228-6bec8baf65c4.html#

The problem with economic surveys: People aren’t filling them out
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-economic-surveys-statscan/

Falling Survey-Response Rates Undermine Economic Data
https://www.wsj.com/articles/falling-survey-response-rates-undermine-economic-data-2137054c
 
Has labour market data become less reliable?
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/has-labour-market-data-become-less-reliable/

EVs and Trade Protectionism

Why Americans Can’t Buy Cheap Chinese Electric Vehicles
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/why-americans-cant-buy-cheap-chinese-electric-vehicles-53473383
U.S. has built a fortress to keep out Chinese EVs as millions sell around the world

Equity Markets: Is Market Timing a Good Strategy?

In the Stock Market, Don’t Buy and Sell. Just Hold.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/24/business/stock-market-hold-sell-timing.html
There’s new evidence that market timing doesn’t work. Your odds of success are better if you just hang on and aim for average returns, our columnist says.

Does Market Timing Work?
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/does-market-timing-work

 
Another Look at Timing the Equity Premiums
https://ssrn.com/abstract=4586684   
Abstract
We examine strategies that time the market, size, value, and profitability premiums in the US, developed ex US, and emerging markets based on three common timing approaches: valuation ratio, mean reversion, and momentum. Out of the 720 timing strategies we simulated, the vast majority underperformed relative to staying invested in the long side of the premiums. While 30 strategies delivered promising outperformance at first glance, further analysis shows that their outperformance is very sensitive to specific time periods and parameters for strategy construction. Our results highlight the opportunity cost of mistiming the premiums and the importance of discipline for capturing the premiums. 

Quantity versus Quality

The High Stakes of Low Quality
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/23/opinion/patagonia-environnment-fast-fashion.html
Chouinard (founder and former owner of Patagonia):
A quality revolution will require a huge shift, but it’s been done before. Early post-World War II Japan was known for making flimsy, inexpensive products. But in 1950, an American statistician named W. Edwards Deming introduced a system that emphasized consistency, continuous improvement and the importance of sourcing the very best materials. His principles transformed Japan into a manufacturing gold standard, but they didn’t catch on in his home country. Frustrated with U.S. companies’ lack of interest in his methods, Deming told a reporter he’d like to be remembered “as someone who spent his life trying to keep America from committing suicide.”
If we can embrace quality as the key to living more responsibly, choosing the carbon steel knife that lasts decades over the ones that have to be replaced each year, we may just get to keep the one thing we can’t toss out: Earth. 

Populist Backlash Grows in Europe

Europe’s far right goes mainstream
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/27/europe-far-right-geert-wilders-dutch-election-mainstream/
 
Ireland’s new elite deludes itself with platitudes about mass migration
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/27/irelands-new-elite-deludes-itself-with-platitudes-about-mig/

As Migration to Europe Rises, a Backlash Grows
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/as-migration-to-europe-rises-a-backlash-grows-72a758fb
Anti-immigration parties are winning elections and surging in polls

Dutch election shows far right rising and reshaping Europe

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/25/europe-far-right-netherlands-election/

Geert Wilders is just the beginning
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/23/geert-wilders-is-just-the-beginning/
The politics the PVV represents is not going away, and Germany could be next

Far-right leader Geert Wilders wins Dutch election
https://www.politico.eu/article/far-right-leader-geert-wilders-wins-dutch-election-exit-poll/
 
How Geert Wilders won in the Dutch elections
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/11/23/how-geert-wilders-won-dutch-elections-what-happens-next/ 

The Causes of Populism in the West
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041719-102503
Abstract
The global ascendance of populism has produced an explosion of research, bringing together scholarship on American and comparative politics as well as encouraging intellectual exchange among political scientists, economists, and sociologists. A good way to get a handle on what is now a wide-ranging and interdisciplinary literature is to focus on the key debates characterizing it. This article reviews the literature on the causes of populism, and in particular right-wing populism, in the United States, Europe, and other advanced industrial nations generally, but much of this literature draws on and refers to research on other parts of the world as well. This review analyzes the nature as well as the strengths and weakness of demand- and supply-side explanations of populism, economic grievance–based and sociocultural grievance–based explanations of populism, and structure- and agency-based explanations of populism.

Rethinking the Economics of Immigration

Mass migration has been an economic and political catastrophe
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/23/mass-migration-has-been-an-economic-and-political-catastrop/
It is time the consensus that immigration always and everywhere increases growth and makes us richer was smashed
Related: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/13/shrinking-population-will-benefit-richest-nations-obr-chief/
 
Macroeconomic impacts of changes in life expectancy and fertility
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X22000573
Abstract
This paper analyses economic implications of the different ways in which the population structure of countries becomes older: longer lives and declines in fertility both generate ageing populations but have very different impacts upon the aggregate population. If lower fertility persists populations in many countries will decline. Having reviewed the evidence for this, I consider both why fertility rates have fallen and may stay low. I then analyse the economic implications of populations that may stop growing and start to fall, focusing on how this may play out in the UK. I consider policy implications of such a demographic shift. Despite many predictions of the dire consequences of falling populations the economic impacts are likely, on balance, to be positive. 

The Hard Truth About Immigration
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/10/us-immigration-policy-1965-act/675724/
If the United States wants to reduce inequality, it’s going to need to take an honest look at a contentious issue. 

Related: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/17/opinion/immigration-trump-racism.html

David Leonhardt: 

I think our immigration policy should take into account the sharp rise in inequality over the last few decades. One way to do so would be to reduce, or at least hold constant, the level of immigration by people who would compete for lower- and middle-wage jobs while increasing immigration among people who would compete for higher-wage jobs.

Skilled versus Unskilled Immigrants:

https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2022/10/the-case-for-selective-immigration.html

US Equities: The Dominance of the Magnificent Seven

Is the dominance of Apple, Amazon and the other magnificent seven stocks a problem? Yes and no
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-is-the-dominance-of-apple-amazon-and-the-other-magnificent-seven/

One chart shows how the 'Magnificent 7' have dominated the stock market in 2023
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html
 
The S&P 500 Index is forecast to return 6% in 2024
https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-sp-500-index-is-forecast-to-return-six-percent.html
 
Falling Yields Give Stocks a Boost
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-11-22-2023-ddcc87dc 

India's Real Estate/Construction Boom

Modi’s Nation-Building Push Sparks $125 Billion Rally in Industrial Stocks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-25/modi-s-nation-building-push-sparks-125-billion-rally-in-industrial-stocks
Massive infrastructure projects fuel surge in sector’s shares

India's red-hot real estate market attracts global private credit investors
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Finance/India-s-red-hot-real-estate-market-attracts-global-private-credit-investors

A 92-Year-Old Property Mogul Nabs $5.5 Billion on Bet From the 1980s
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-21/92-year-old-real-estate-mogul-nabs-5-5-billion-on-india-bet-from-1980s
Developer KP Singh’s wealth tops real estate gains this year 

Blackstone Sees Most Asia Deal Activity in Japan, India in 2024
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-06/blackstone-sees-most-asia-deal-activity-in-japan-india-in-2024

Related:

India is seeing a massive aviation boom
https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/11/23/india-is-seeing-a-massive-aviation-boom

Is Turkey a Reliable Western Ally?

It’s Time to Reconsider Turkey’s NATO Membership
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/06/turkey-nato-membership-alliance-russia-erdogan-sweden-syria/

The sultan’s ghost: Erdoğan and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-sultans-ghost-erdogan-and-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/ 

OPEN AI - Soap Opera in the Tech World

How a Fervent Belief Split Silicon Valley—and Fueled the Blowup at OpenAI
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-blowup-effective-altruism-disaster-f46a55e8
Sam Altman’s firing showed the influence of effective altruism and its view that AI development must slow down; his return marked its limits
 
Larry Summers Is OpenAI’s Surprise Pick to Mend Fences
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/larry-summers-is-openais-surprise-pick-to-chart-path-forward-bc9708d3
 
OpenAI Engineers Earning $800,000 a Year Turn Rare Skillset into Leverage
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-22/openai-staff-mutiny-for-sam-altman-shows-rare-skills-equal-leverage
At the vanguard of artificial intelligence, the startup’s engineers are seen as virtually irreplaceable 

Supply Chain Shifts

Economics, Politics, and the Evolution of Global Supply Chains
https://www.nber.org/digest/202311/economics-politics-and-evolution-global-supply-chains 

Climate Refuge

Buffalo, NY: This city rarely reaches 100 degrees. It is now considered a 'climate refuge'
https://www.cnn.com/videos/weather/2023/11/14/global-warming-climate-change-refuge-cities-buffalo-ny-weir-cnntm-pkg-vpx.cnn
 
Out-of-Towners Head to ‘Climate-Proof Duluth’
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/10/realestate/duluth-minnesota-climate-change.html
The former industrial town in Minnesota is coming to terms with its status as a refuge for people moving from across the country because of climate change.

Free Speech – Who Decides?

Melissa Barrera: Actress fired from Scream 7 over Israel-Gaza posts
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-67494374  
 
War and the Collapse of the Campus Speech Consensus
https://www.chronicle.com/article/war-and-the-collapse-of-the-campus-speech-consensus
 
Eric Levitz notes:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/10/the-israel-palestine-conflict-makes-the-case-for-free-speech.html
In recent years, social-justice activists have made a practice of seeking to deplatform or punish speech on the grounds that it (1) causes emotional (or theoretically physical) harm to oppressed groups or (2) is motivated by bigotry. Others on the left have argued that organizations and institutions canceling speakers or refusing to platform certain perspectives was itself an exercise of First Amendment rights worth defending: The “freedom of association” entitles Americans to form collectives that dissociate from some forms of speech.
Anti-woke types of the center and the right, meanwhile, tended to decry such censoriousness as an illiberal bid to impose orthodoxy on others through emotional blackmail and institutional capture. And they were also inclined to emphasize that “free speech” is not just a matter of constitutional law but a civic ethos…
The Israel-Hamas war has flipped the ideological valence of these positions. 

South Africa – The Consequences of Declining State Capacity

South Africa Economic Update, Safety First: The Economic Cost of Crime in South Africa
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/southafrica/publication/raising-south-africa-s-afe-1123-economic-prospects-by-curbing-crime
 
GROWTH THROUGH INCLUSION IN SOUTH AFRICA
https://growthlab.hks.harvard.edu/publications/growth-through-inclusion-south-africa
It is painfully clear that South Africa is performing poorly, exacerbating problems such as inequality and exclusion. The economy’s ability to create jobs is slowing, worsening South Africa’s extreme levels of unemployment and inequality. South Africans are deeply disappointed with social progress and dislike the direction where the country seems to be heading. Despite its enviable productive capabilities, the national economy is losing international competitiveness. As the economy staggers, South Africa faces deteriorating social indicators and declining levels of public satisfaction with the status quo. After 15 years, attempts to stimulate the economy through fiscal policy and to address exclusion through social grants have failed to achieve their goals. Instead, they have sacrificed the country's investment grade, increasing the cost of capital to the whole economy, with little social progress to show for it. The underlying capabilities to achieve sustained growth by leveraging the full capability of its people, companies, assets, and knowhow remain underutilized. Three decades after the end of apartheid, the economy is defined by stagnation and exclusion, and current strategies are not achieving inclusion and empowerment in practice. 

Western Hypocrisy Reaches New Lows

How a recent study shows inherent biases of Western media when it comes to reporting about India
https://www.firstpost.com/india/how-a-recent-study-shows-inherent-biases-of-western-media-when-it-comes-to-reporting-about-india-10394641.html
 
Related:
https://www.oneindia.com/downloads/2022/2/westrenmedia1.pdf
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/quantifying-india-and-its-foreign-relations-through-media-monitoring/

Holiday Shopping Season

For many Americans, the end of the year is a time for parties, family gatherings, festive meals and, of course, shopping. And all that holiday celebrating makes the fourth quarter the most important time of the year for the U.S. economy.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/22/business/economy/holiday-economy.html 

Politics and Crony Capitalism

Washington Quietly Scrapped a Plan to Save Homeowners Thousands of Dollars
https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/washington-quietly-scrapped-a-plan-to-save-home-buyers-thousands-of-dollars-03dae13e
Title insurance pilot scuttled after blowback from insurers, lawmakers 

The Continuing Popularity of Physical Cash

A record number of $50 bills were printed last year. It’s not why you think
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/18/economy/historic-number-of-50-bills-were-printed-last-year/index.html 

Fiscal Dominance of Monetary Policy

Argentina Is a Textbook Case of ‘Fiscal Dominance’
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/argentina-is-a-textbook-case-of-fiscal-dominance-bc1bc5d9
Some wonder whether U.S. deficits could similarly fuel inflation; it all depends on the Fed

Why the debate around global debt will not disappear any time soon
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/11/26/debate-around-global-debt-will-not-disappear-soon/

 
My take from August: Fitch’s downgrade of US debt wasn’t a mistake — it was long overdue
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4138215-fitchs-downgrade-wasnt-a-mistake-it-was-long-overdue/
Investors should not underestimate the potential for fiscal dominance of monetary policy. As Markus Brunnermeir recently noted, “Central banks would like to hike interest rates to rein in inflation, whereas governments hate higher interest expenses. They would prefer that central banks cooperate by monetizing their debt — that is, by purchasing government securities private investors won’t buy.”
 
Related:
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3965613-americas-long-term-fiscal-sustainability-challenge/ 

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-did-the-budget-deficit-grow-so-much-in-fy-2023-and-what-does-this-imply-about-the-future-debt-trajectory/

The Revival of Japan's Economy

Is Japan’s economy at a turning point?
https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/11/16/is-japans-economy-at-a-turning-point

Declining Trust in US Institutions

Democrats Empower Trump by Ignoring the Collapse of Trust
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-11-21/democrats-empower-trump-by-ignoring-the-collapse-of-trust
The former president’s return to office would be a disaster. But dismissing voters’ concerns about inflation, immigration, criminal justice and election integrity will just make it more likely. 

US Housing Market Update - Sales Down, Prices Up

Home prices kept climbing even as existing home sales tanked last month
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-kept-climbing-even-as-existing-home-sales-tanked-last-month-150116659.html
 
Home sales fell to a 13-year low in October as prices rose
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/21/home-sales-fell-to-a-13-year-low-in-october-as-prices-rose.html
Tight supply kept pressure under prices. The median price of an existing home sold in October was $391,800, an increase of 3.4% from a year ago ($378,800). Prices rose in all regions of the country. These annual price increases have been getting larger for four straight months. Roughly 28% of homes sold above list price. …
Sales fell in all price categories up to $750,000, but there was an increase in sales of higher end homes. Homes priced above $1 million were up just over 9% from a year ago. Wealthier buyers either tend not to use mortgages or are less sensitive to monthly rate changes. Yun also noted that there are more homes available for sale on the higher end of the market.
 
Home Sales Fell to a New 13-Year Low in October
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/october-2023-home-sales-fall-ec6b3164 

Related:

Why house prices have risen once again
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/11/21/why-house-prices-have-risen-once-again
Across the rich world, they have brushed off higher rates. Can that last?

The Magic of Darjeeling

Tea, a Train and an Epic Sunrise at a Summer Retreat of the Raj
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/21/travel/india-darjeeling.html
Darjeeling, in the Himalayan foothills, is famous for its tea, its elevated railroad and the view of dawn breaking over Mt. Everest. A writer fulfilled a childhood dream of visiting. 

EMs Deserve Credit for Improved Macro Policymaking

Emerging economies deserve praise for their monetary policy moves
https://www.ft.com/content/423dbe48-5b0b-4998-b206-8ba8e3392d12 

The Rise of Global Capability Centers in India

India’s back-office boom sparks ‘war’ for IT service workers
https://www.ft.com/content/13f32219-483c-4030-b252-a0a76c625576
Multinationals are setting up global capability centres as they seek to bring technology in house 

Goldman’s Biggest Office Beyond New York Attests to India’s Rise
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-06-13/goldman-s-biggest-office-outside-new-york-shows-india-s-business-evolution

How Do You Really Feel About the Economy?

The Great Disconnect: Why Voters Feel One Way About the Economy but Act Differently
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/upshot/economy-voters-poll.html
Americans are angry and anxious, and not just about prices, which may be driving economic sentiment more than their financial situations, economists said.

Want to Know What’s Bedeviling Biden? TikTok Economics May Hold Clues.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/17/business/economy/tiktok-biden-economy.html
Economic despair dominates social media as young people fret about the cost of living. It offers a snapshot of the challenges facing Democrats ahead of the 2024 election.  

Is the US Headed for a Recession? Look at What Richer Americans Do on Black Friday
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-11-21/black-friday-shopping-behavior-in-2023-may-help-predict-recession
The upper middle class powered a spending boom that kept the US out of recession, but there are increasing signs of a slowdown.

Big Tech and Anticompetitive Behavior

Remember What Spotify Did to the Music Industry? Books Are Next.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/13/opinion/audiobooks-spotify-streaming-algorithm.html
Kim Scott:
A successful tech “content aggregation” platform has three networks: content creators, users and advertisers. Many networks have so-called positive externalities, which effectively mean that growth builds more growth and usability. A telephone network that allows you to call only half your friends would be far less than half as valuable as one that allowed you to call all your friends.
The network effects of a platform are more complicated because each component reinforces the others. The more content, the more users; the more users, the more content, and so on. Once the platform has enough content to get enough users, then it can also get advertisers. If the platform shares advertisers’ money with the content creators, more content gets created, which attracts more users, which attracts more advertisers, and so on. If the ads are relevant, nonintrusive, and do not invade one’s privacy, that is good for users, because the advertisers are paying for the content. It is also good for content creators, because more users will interact with content they don’t have to pay for. It can be a virtuous cycle.
However, when the platform extracts too much and shares too little, it harms the rest of the ecosystem. Once a tech platform has a critical mass of users, it can start squeezing content creators.

 

The Monopolists Fight Back
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/google-trial-big-tech-lobbying-shows-why-antitrust-enforcement-needed-by-eric-posner-2023-11
With the Google trial having revealed the pervasiveness of anticompetitive behavior in the tech industry, big corporations are turning to Congress to block antitrust agencies from ramping up enforcement efforts after decades of neglect. Now that the industry’s long honeymoon is over, the real struggle is beginning.

The secrets Google spilled in court
https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/11/16/23962967/google-search-antitrust-trial-what-we-learned

This Is Why Google Paid Billions for Apple to Change a Single Setting
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/opinion/apple-google-privacy.html
Zeynep Tufekci:
Data brokers should not be allowed to amass information about people unless they first get explicit permission. But that’s not sufficient, since it is difficult for individuals to evaluate all the implications of their data — professionals, experts and the companies themselves keep getting surprised.
A few years ago, aggregate maps generated by the running app Strava, which showed where users were running, seemingly revealed the location of what could have been a secret Central Intelligence Agency annex in Mogadishu, Somalia. It appears that even the C.I.A. hadn’t anticipated this, and instructed its personnel to change the setting. If that’s the case, what chance do ordinary people have to evaluate all future implications of their data? 

Rental Inflation

Houses Too Expensive to Buy Underpin Lofty Rents
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/houses-too-expensive-to-buy-underpin-lofty-rents-411c145f
Single-family home rents are rising more than apartments this year.

Rent Hikes of 2021 and 2022 to Boost CPI Into 2026
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-11-16/rent-hikes-of-2021-and-2022-to-boost-cpi-into-2026
It’s not news that housing costs as measured by the consumer price index lag market reality, but the extent of the lag may be bigger than commonly understood. 

Fed Officials Talk Too Much

Federal Reserve Officials Talk Too Much
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-11-20/federal-reserve-officials-talk-too-much
Excessive communication by the central bank can aggravate the risk of both market and economic accidents.
 
My take from March:
Shifting monetary policy lags confuse markets and central bankers by Vivekanand Jayakumar
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3921016-shifting-monetary-policy-lags-confuse-markets-and-central-bankers/
Today’s central bankers have little or no desire to appear Delphic in their public commentary. In fact, the Fed has come long a way in its communications strategy since the early days of the Alan Greenspan era. Known for his cryptic comments, former Fed Chair Greenspan once famously quipped: “I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you’ve probably misunderstood what I’ve said.” Nowadays, it is far more likely that Fed officials will “err on the side of saying too much rather than too little,” as a recent St. Louis Fed study noted. 

The Economics of Dollar Stores

Taxes and Revenue Collection

A New Approach to Taxes That Pays Its Own Way
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-new-approach-to-taxes-that-pays-its-own-way-cuts-economy-7bb675c1
Two decades of unpaid-for tax cuts have eroded the federal government’s revenue base. 

Argentinians Place a Bet on Milei and Dollarization

Javier Milei, a Self-Described Anarcho-Capitalist, Is Elected President of Argentina
https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/argentina-votes-for-new-president-to-confront-economic-crisis-99b73b86

Argentina’s New President Wants to Adopt the U.S. Dollar as the National Currency
https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/argentinas-new-president-wants-to-adopt-the-u-s-dollar-as-national-currency-86da3444

For Argentina, Dollarization May Be the Wrong Kind of Change

https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/for-argentina-dollarization-may-work-better-on-youtube-than-in-reality-34fe363d

Argentina elects far-right, chainsaw-wielding Javier Milei as president
https://www.politico.eu/article/argentina-elects-a-far-right-chainsaw-wielding-president/
The self-described anarcho-capitalist waved a chainsaw above his head at political rallies, as a symbol of his promise to slash the size of the state.
 
Why 'Mileionomics' and Argentina's new president could create chaos
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/11/20/argentina-javier-milei-president-chaos-why-analysis/
Milei wants to sort things out by taking a chainsaw to the public sector, which he blames for many of the country’s woes
 
Argentina's next president Milei must tame inflation
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentinas-next-president-milei-must-tame-inflation-turn-around-economy-2023-11-20/
 
Don’t Cry for Milei’s Argentina
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-11-20/argentina-s-milei-launches-a-monetary-musical-will-there-be-crying
Will surrendering monetary independence to the US Federal Reserve make for a less weepy country?
 
Milei’s Remarkable Victory in Argentina Paves the Way for a ‘Dollar Zone’
https://www.cato.org/blog/mileis-remarkable-victory-argentina-paves-way-dollar-zone 

India's Foreign Policy Evolution

India’s New Middle East Strategy Takes Shape
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/17/india-modi-israel-netanyahu-uae-saudi-middle-east-strategy-takes-shape/
New Delhi is slowly moving away from nonalignment and into the U.S.-led security ecosystem while maintaining relationships with old allies.

 

India’s embrace of Israel after the Hamas attack shows how much the bilateral relationship has changed over the years

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/18/india-israel-modi-netanyahu-relations/

 
Related:
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/india-response-to-israel-hamas-war-foreign-policy-shift-away-from-nonalignment-by-shashi-tharoor-2023-11 

The ‘Global South’ Isn’t All Pro-Hamas
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-global-south-isnt-all-pro-hamas-india-africa-asia-south-america-101331cf
India has sided with Israel, and many other developing countries have an interest in seeing it win its war.
Related: https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/11/02/narendra-modi-has-shifted-india-from-the-palestinians-to-israel 

China's Rise Thwarted by Xi

China’s rise is reversing
https://www.ft.com/content/c10bd71b-e418-48d7-ad89-74c5783c51a2
The past two years have seen the largest drop in the nation’s share of global GDP since the Mao era 

Do Consumers Understand the True Cost of Their Purchases?

The Sneaky Sticker-Shock of Subscription Culture
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/19/opinion/subscriptions-netflix-apple-cost.html 

The fierce battle over junk fees that cost consumers billions of dollars a year
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/11/19/companies-lobbyists-fight-junk-fees/
Powerful lobbyists have warred with the Biden administration over the new regulatory crackdown.

Extra Fees Drive Assisted-Living Profits
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/19/health/long-term-care-assisted-living.html
The add-ons pile up: $93 for medications, $50 for cable TV. Prices soar as the industry leaves no service unbilled. The housing option is out of reach for many families.

The Pros and Cons of the 30-Year Mortgage

A 30-Year Trap: The Problem with America’s Weird Mortgages
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/19/business/economy/30-year-mortgage.html
One big reason the U.S. housing market is broken: Owners don’t want to give up their cushy old loans. 

Military Conflicts in Africa

Militants Take Cover Amid Elephants, Lions in West Africa’s National Parks
https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/militants-attack-from-africa-national-parks-2f6865cf
The U.S. and its allies battle al Qaeda and Islamic State fighters at a bloody crossroads of wildlife, insurgency, geopolitics and military coups 

Dubai's Water Usage

Dubai’s Costly Water World
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/18/business/dubai-water-desalination.html
The city has spent billions of dollars to provide fresh water to its residents and tourist attractions, but experts say the efforts are straining the Persian Gulf’s natural resources. 

Dysfunctional Politics

Shutdown prep is exhausting Washington. And all the brinksmanship has real costs.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/11/17/government-shutdown-washington-preparations/
After temporarily averting another shutdown this week, the routine has grown familiar on Capitol Hill after more than 50 stopgap funding bills since fiscal year 2010 and too many complaints about the process to count. 

AI and the Future of Banking

AI in Banking: AI Will Be an Incremental Game Changer
https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/featured/special-editorial/ai-in-banking-ai-will-be-an-incremental-game-changer

Wall Street Bosses Turn to AI to Help Write Performance Reviews
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-17/wall-street-bosses-turn-to-ai-to-help-write-performance-reviews

How AI could revolutionize banking and eliminate much of the risk
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/17/ai-big-banks-risks/
Last year, JPMorgan Chase — whose chief executive, Jamie Dimon, is as rapturous about artificial intelligence as he is dubious of cryptocurrency — invested hundreds of millions of dollars in AI and claimed a profit of about $1.5 billion. It’s reportedly at work on an AI tool to help investors pick stocks. “AI is penetrating every nook and cranny of these banks,” says Alexandra Mousavizadeh, chief executive of Evident, a research company that measures AI adoption in financial services. “They’re using it for credit decisions, fraud detection, personalization, operational efficiency, trading, you name it.” 

The Disinflation Trend Skips Florida

Miami’s Inflation Ranks Highest in the US
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-17/where-inflation-is-highest-in-us-miami-at-7-4-tampa-at-6-7
Miami’s annual inflation rate of 7.4% in October was the highest of the US metro areas tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and more than double the national average. Tampa stood at 6.7% in September. 

Consumer Price Index for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach
https://www.bls.gov/regions/southeast/news-release/consumerpriceindex_miami.htm
The all-items CPI-U increased 7.4 percent for the 12 months ending in October. The index for all items less food and energy advanced 8.0 percent over the past year.
 
Consumer Price Index for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (published bi-monthly)
https://www.bls.gov/regions/southeast/news-release/consumerpriceindex_tampa.htm
The all-items CPI-U increased 6.7 percent for the 12 months ending in September. The index for all items less food and energy advanced 7.3 percent over the past year.

What's Wrong with US Capital Markets?

What’s Behind the Market’s Wild Overreactions
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/whats-behind-the-markets-wild-overreactions-cae05ade
There are deeper issues behind the rapid changes in the market story that are unlikely to be resolved soon