We Know War Is Awful, So Why Is It Making a Comeback?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/opinion/war-israel-gaza-tigray.html
Peter Coy:
Economists and political scientists used to believe that miscalculation was perfectly consistent with rationality. They thought that political leaders who were fully rational could nevertheless commonly make mistakes based on incorrect information about their opponents’ power or resolve.
But in an influential article in 1995, James Fearon, a Stanford political scientist, then at the University of Chicago, showed that in most cases (not all), a rational leader should be able to clear up confusion and make decisions with sound information. Given how destructive and deadly wars are, political leaders have a strong incentive to use “diplomacy or other forms of communication to avoid such costly miscommunications,” Fearon wrote in “Rationalist Explanations for War,” which was published in the journal International Organization.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/opinion/war-israel-gaza-tigray.html
Peter Coy:
Economists and political scientists used to believe that miscalculation was perfectly consistent with rationality. They thought that political leaders who were fully rational could nevertheless commonly make mistakes based on incorrect information about their opponents’ power or resolve.
But in an influential article in 1995, James Fearon, a Stanford political scientist, then at the University of Chicago, showed that in most cases (not all), a rational leader should be able to clear up confusion and make decisions with sound information. Given how destructive and deadly wars are, political leaders have a strong incentive to use “diplomacy or other forms of communication to avoid such costly miscommunications,” Fearon wrote in “Rationalist Explanations for War,” which was published in the journal International Organization.