The Most Important Debate on Wall Street: Is
Inflation Licked?
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-most-important-debate-on-wall-street-is-inflation-licked-3662e2ff
Not everyone is sure it is coasting to the Fed’s target rate
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-most-important-debate-on-wall-street-is-inflation-licked-3662e2ff
Not everyone is sure it is coasting to the Fed’s target rate
Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes Are Probably Over, but
Officials Are Reluctant to Say So
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-hikes-b19c2ab2
The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure Eased in
October
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/business/economy/pce-inflation-october.html
Coming Down Inflation Is No Walk on Table Mountain
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-01/inflation-descent-table-mountain-scenario-is-deadlier-than-it-looks
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-hikes-b19c2ab2
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/business/economy/pce-inflation-october.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-12-01/inflation-descent-table-mountain-scenario-is-deadlier-than-it-looks
HISTORY’S INFLATION LESSONS
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/History-inflation-lessons-Ari-Ratnovski
ANIL ARI and LEV RATNOVSKI:
Aided by the sharpest rise in interest rates in a generation, inflation has started to subside at last. Headline inflation in the United States and across much of Europe has halved from about 10 percent last year to less than 5 percent today. The latest conflict in the Middle East has, for now at least, not had a large impact on oil prices. But it is still too soon for policymakers to celebrate victory over inflation.
Our recent study of over 100 inflation shocks since the 1970s offers two reasons for caution. First, history teaches us that inflation is persistent. It takes years to “resolve” inflation by reducing it to the rate that prevailed before the initial shock. Forty percent of countries in our study failed to resolve inflation shocks even after five years. It took the remaining 60 percent an average of three years to return inflation to pre-shock rates.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/History-inflation-lessons-Ari-Ratnovski
ANIL ARI and LEV RATNOVSKI:
Aided by the sharpest rise in interest rates in a generation, inflation has started to subside at last. Headline inflation in the United States and across much of Europe has halved from about 10 percent last year to less than 5 percent today. The latest conflict in the Middle East has, for now at least, not had a large impact on oil prices. But it is still too soon for policymakers to celebrate victory over inflation.
Our recent study of over 100 inflation shocks since the 1970s offers two reasons for caution. First, history teaches us that inflation is persistent. It takes years to “resolve” inflation by reducing it to the rate that prevailed before the initial shock. Forty percent of countries in our study failed to resolve inflation shocks even after five years. It took the remaining 60 percent an average of three years to return inflation to pre-shock rates.