In the Stock Market, Don’t Buy and Sell. Just Hold.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/24/business/stock-market-hold-sell-timing.html
There’s new evidence that market timing doesn’t work. Your odds of success are better if you just hang on and aim for average returns, our columnist says.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/24/business/stock-market-hold-sell-timing.html
There’s new evidence that market timing doesn’t work. Your odds of success are better if you just hang on and aim for average returns, our columnist says.
Does Market Timing Work?
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/does-market-timing-work
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/does-market-timing-work
Another Look at Timing the Equity Premiums
https://ssrn.com/abstract=4586684
Abstract
We examine strategies that time the market, size, value, and profitability premiums in the US, developed ex US, and emerging markets based on three common timing approaches: valuation ratio, mean reversion, and momentum. Out of the 720 timing strategies we simulated, the vast majority underperformed relative to staying invested in the long side of the premiums. While 30 strategies delivered promising outperformance at first glance, further analysis shows that their outperformance is very sensitive to specific time periods and parameters for strategy construction. Our results highlight the opportunity cost of mistiming the premiums and the importance of discipline for capturing the premiums.