Peter Turchin - Interview
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/jun/10/how-to-avoid-a-civil-war-by-the-man-who-predicted-trump
Trump or not, US meltdown could be inevitable
https://www.ft.com/content/b812c789-8347-46cd-b3f3-8d865ae829dc
Turchin uses reams of economic and sociological information from history to explore the cycles of political economies over thousands of years around the world. This led him to the conclusion that there is a fundamental pattern: an elite grabs power, then over time tries to protect that by grabbing more and more resources. That inevitably ends up leaving poor people even poorer (“popular immiseration”) and spawning an “over-production of the elite” — too many elites chasing too few roles — which, in turn, leads to extreme frustration, anxiety and in-fighting.
The result is usually a social explosion and political disintegration, with Turchin’s models suggesting that such structural shifts typically occur about every 100 years in complex societies.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/jun/10/how-to-avoid-a-civil-war-by-the-man-who-predicted-trump
https://www.ft.com/content/b812c789-8347-46cd-b3f3-8d865ae829dc
Turchin uses reams of economic and sociological information from history to explore the cycles of political economies over thousands of years around the world. This led him to the conclusion that there is a fundamental pattern: an elite grabs power, then over time tries to protect that by grabbing more and more resources. That inevitably ends up leaving poor people even poorer (“popular immiseration”) and spawning an “over-production of the elite” — too many elites chasing too few roles — which, in turn, leads to extreme frustration, anxiety and in-fighting.
The result is usually a social explosion and political disintegration, with Turchin’s models suggesting that such structural shifts typically occur about every 100 years in complex societies.
Peter Turchin’s empty prophecies
https://www.newstatesman.com/the-weekend-essay/2023/06/peter-turchins-empty-prophecies
https://www.newstatesman.com/the-weekend-essay/2023/06/peter-turchins-empty-prophecies
Related:
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2022/03/historical-cycles-was-turchin-right.html
