The Iran War and America's International Standing

After Iran, America may turn against Israel
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2026/04/after-iran-american-may-turn-against-israel
On 11 February, Benjamin Netanyahu walked down the stairs in the West Wing and – this is not usual for a foreign dignitary – straight into the Situation Room. 
Inside, he tried to persuade Donald Trump to launch a war against Iran. According to The New York Times, Netanyahu promised the president that they could kill the Supreme Leader, Mossad could foment a popular rebellion and the regime would be too weak to close the Strait of Hormuz. Trump was on board: Operation Epic Fury was launched shortly afterwards. But the war didn’t work out as promised. Forty-one days later, the mullahs are still in control, Iran is charging a toll for ships to pass through the Strait and Israel is waging an increasingly brutal war in Lebanon. In other words, Trump was willingly mis-sold: what was supposed to be another Venezuela looks like an American Suez.
 
The end of the American empire
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/geopolitics/2026/04/the-end-of-the-american-empire
The president and his coterie imagined that decapitating the leadership – “getting rid of some people,” as he put it in his golf club homily – would disable the regime. But Tehran is not Caracas, from which President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were extracted in a special operation on 3 January and Venezuela handed over to the deputy leader, Delcy Rodríguez. Iran’s government is multi-layered and – for all its murderous repression of the millions who yearn for a Western way of life – deeply embedded in society. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) manage a business empire spanning oil, telecommunications, construction and banking. The Basij militias, volunteer paramilitary forces used to crush domestic resistance, receive state benefits and jobs in IRGC-linked companies. Religious foundations and clerical elites control billions of dollars of assets seized from dissidents and minorities. For these groups, losing the war means losing their property, their livelihoods and their lives. They will fight to the death. Some may welcome death in battle as an opportunity for martyrdom – an enduring and still potent element in Shia Islam. The White House screens out these facts, along with Iran’s mastery of low-cost techniques of asymmetric warfare.

Trump Has Fallen into a Familiar U.S. Foreign Policy Trap
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/11/opinion/trump-iran-war-middle-east.html

 
The Trump Administration Is in a Psychotic State
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/opinion/trump-iran-psychotic-state-institutions.html
What are the implications if the government of the world’s most powerful country is chaotic in its thinking and not reliably in touch with reality?
 
Fareed Zakaria on the Moral Cost of Trump’s War
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-fareed-zakaria.html 

Oil Prices - Spot versus Futures Market

The Oil Shock Is Worse Than You Think
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/business/energy-environment/iran-oil-prices.html
The war with Iran is preventing huge amounts of oil from flowing out of the Persian Gulf, but the prices that many people track don’t fully capture the scale of the disruption. 

High-Income Households and US Consumption

The K-Shaped Economy's Defining Statistic Has Some Problems
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the-k-shaped-economy-s-defining-statistic-has-some-problems-86570.html
 
More Americans Are Breaking into the Upper Middle Class
https://www.wsj.com/economy/more-americans-are-breaking-into-the-upper-middle-class-bf8b7cb2
 
First-Class Seats Drive Airline Profits. It Wasn’t Always This Way.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/business/airlines-first-class-seats-tickets-upgrades.html
Airlines used to give away most of their nicest seats, but they have increasingly found ways to persuade people to pay a lot for them. 

First-class airline bet is economically well-timed
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/first-class-airline-bet-is-economically-well-timed-2026-04-02/
It’s also possible that sustained high oil prices could ​hit equity markets hard, leading to a negative “wealth effect” that dents animal spirits and therefore travel ​among the world’s richest ⁠fliers. Still, markets are not quite there yet. And higher fuel costs necessarily call for higher fares. Leaning on those better able to afford it simply makes financial sense. 

U.S. Fertility Rate Decline - A Temporary Phenomenon?

Why the U.S. Fertility Rate Has Hit a Record Low
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/why-the-u-s-fertility-rate-has-hit-a-record-low-13e7c2f8
As childbearing shifts toward women 30 and older, the U.S. is moving further below the level needed to keep growing. 

Women in Their 20s May Not Be Having Babies, but by 45 Most Probably Will
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/upshot/births-decline-older-mothers.html
There are reasons to believe the record-low U.S. birthrate could be only temporary as today’s young women postpone pregnancy.

These Couples Wanted to Have Children. Rising Costs Are Stopping Them.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/26/business/children-rising-costs.html
High mortgage payments, higher childcare costs and economic uncertainty are making some people rethink their plans on starting a family.

A Challenging Environment for Forecasters

A recession is guaranteed. But when?
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/economy/recession-economy-timing

Wall Street Is Whiffing on Its Economic Forecasts
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/wall-street-prognosticators-struggle-in-whipsawing-jobs-market-5fade369
Early 2026 has seen some particularly big analyst misses, and they are adjusting to more volatility.
 
Is Economic Forecasting Still Possible?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-forecasting-under-radical-uncertainty-by-morten-nyboe-tabor-2026-04
Much of the forecasting profession—and the economic theory that underpins it—still defaults to single baselines that treat the future as a probabilistic replica of the past. But when the structure of the economy changes in unforeseeable ways, as it is now, forecasters must acknowledge that many futures are possible. 

Labor Economics: Interesting Items

Why More People Are Dropping Out of the Job Market
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/why-more-people-are-dropping-out-of-the-job-market-6e9f4eb4
An aging population and Trump’s immigration crackdown have pushed a key labor metric to a half-century low, excluding the pandemic. That has some economists nervous. 

The Workers Opting to Retire Instead of Taking On AI
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/the-workers-opting-to-retire-instead-of-taking-on-ai-3400fb92
Their careers spanned the personal computing, internet and smartphone waves. But some older workers see AI’s arrival as the cue to exit. 

Blue-Collar Work Has Plateaued, Narrowing Options for Young Workers
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/business/economy/blue-collar-trades-jobs.html
Skilled electricians, plumbers and factory workers are in demand, but job openings have dropped.

An Economist’s Quest to Solve America’s Wage Problem
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/an-economists-quest-to-solve-americas-wage-problem
Arindrajit Dube argues that the answer is empowering workers and setting mandatory wage standards across industries. 

History Lesson: Most Devastating Military Conflicts

The 4 Most Destructive Conflicts in All of Human History
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/4-most-destructive-conflicts-all-human-history-162752

From Gemini AI:
When adjusted for global population, the Mongol conquests (13th century) and the Three Kingdoms period in China (2nd/3rd century) were far more devastating than World War II. While WWII caused 70–85 million deaths (roughly 3-4% of the population), the Mongol conquests killed an estimated 11-13% of the world population, and the Three Kingdoms era may have wiped out 13-17%.

Here are the biggest wars adjusted for global population:

• Mongol Conquests (1200–1300): Estimated to have killed 20-60 million, representing roughly 5-13% of the world population at the time.
• Three Kingdoms Period (220–280): This conflict claimed roughly 34 million lives, equivalent to roughly 13-17% of the global population.
• The An Lushan Rebellion (755–763): Estimates suggest this conflict killed up to 16% of the world's population.
• Taiping Rebellion (1850–1864): An extremely violent civil war in China, which caused 20-70 million deaths, or about 1.4-2.6% of the world population.

While World War II remains the deadliest in absolute numbers (highest total death count), these earlier conflicts were far more catastrophic relative to the smaller total number of people living at those times.