Demographic “doomsday” misses the mark
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ael8752
A dire prediction published in Science in 1960 anticipated a population singularity in 2026—we are not even close.
JAVIER A. BIRCHENALL:
The failure of the doomsday equation is ultimately a cautionary tale about the dangers of extrapolating from historically exceptional circumstances with lessons that extend well beyond demography. The looming threats of technological singularities are not exempt from similar misreadings. Without dismissing the transformative potential of artificial intelligence, it is crucial to remember that extrapolating current scaling laws indefinitely would make explosive or superexponential growth appear an inevitable law of technological evolution rather than a property of the time period during which those laws are observed.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ael8752
A dire prediction published in Science in 1960 anticipated a population singularity in 2026—we are not even close.
The failure of the doomsday equation is ultimately a cautionary tale about the dangers of extrapolating from historically exceptional circumstances with lessons that extend well beyond demography. The looming threats of technological singularities are not exempt from similar misreadings. Without dismissing the transformative potential of artificial intelligence, it is crucial to remember that extrapolating current scaling laws indefinitely would make explosive or superexponential growth appear an inevitable law of technological evolution rather than a property of the time period during which those laws are observed.