Thursday, August 21, 2025

Trump and the Triffin Dilemma

The Defunct Economist Who Shapes Trump’s Trade Policy
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-defunct-economist-who-shapes-trumps-trade-policy-6726b3bb
Robert Triffin’s ‘dilemma’ didn’t pan out, but it holds sway over some of the president’s key advisers.

My take from Jan 2025:
https://thehill.com/opinion/5092814-dollar-weakens-2024/
Meanwhile, in a recent report, Stephen Miran, the Harvard-trained economist who is expected to chair President-elect Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, places much of the blame for the persistent trade imbalances on the rest of the world’s insatiable demand for dollar-denominated safe assets. The historical antecedent of this viewpoint is the Triffin dilemma. Robert Triffin had famously questioned the stability of the Bretton Woods arrangement by noting that the sovereign issuing the world’s reserve currency will have to run persistent balance of payment deficits in order to satisfy the rest of the world’s ever-increasing need for global liquidity.