‘America First’ agenda could leave USD behind
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/america-first-agenda-could-leave-us-dollar-behind-2025-07-31
Jay Pelosky (Founder and Global Strategist at TPW Advisory) notes:
A growing regionalization of supply chains began during the pandemic and appears to be accelerating as Trump seeks to drive production back to the U.S. and all major global powers focus on securing regional raw material access (e.g., rare earths and other critical minerals) for national security purposes.
This shift could eventually create the foundation for true regional FX blocs across Asia, Europe and the Americas.
This development would have a major impact on the global economy, currency values and capital markets, arguably providing a more balanced global economy with three poles of supply and demand, each attuned to their own regional dynamics rather than the current set-up whereby the global economy responds primarily to the Federal Reserve and U.S. internal dynamics.
My paper (co-authored with B. Weiss) from 2011:
Global reserve currency system: Why will the dollar standard give way to a tripolar currency order?
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11459-011-0124-6
Abstract
The recent financial crisis highlighted some of the underlying defects in the dollar-based reserve system. This paper argues that the era of the US hegemonic stability and unipolarity, which provided the foundation for the dollar’s sustenance as the pre-eminent global reserve currency, has already peaked and the global economy of the future will revolve around a multipolar order. The rise of China, along with other emerging markets, is rapidly redrawing the traditional Western dominated global economic system. The structural challenges facing the American economy along with the extraordinary expansion of Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the explosion of the US government debt will diminish the attractiveness of the dollar standard going forward. Our analysis suggests that a tripolar currency order—consisting of the dollar, the yuan and the euro—will replace the dollar standard in the coming decades.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/america-first-agenda-could-leave-us-dollar-behind-2025-07-31
Jay Pelosky (Founder and Global Strategist at TPW Advisory) notes:
A growing regionalization of supply chains began during the pandemic and appears to be accelerating as Trump seeks to drive production back to the U.S. and all major global powers focus on securing regional raw material access (e.g., rare earths and other critical minerals) for national security purposes.
This shift could eventually create the foundation for true regional FX blocs across Asia, Europe and the Americas.
This development would have a major impact on the global economy, currency values and capital markets, arguably providing a more balanced global economy with three poles of supply and demand, each attuned to their own regional dynamics rather than the current set-up whereby the global economy responds primarily to the Federal Reserve and U.S. internal dynamics.
Global reserve currency system: Why will the dollar standard give way to a tripolar currency order?
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11459-011-0124-6
Abstract
The recent financial crisis highlighted some of the underlying defects in the dollar-based reserve system. This paper argues that the era of the US hegemonic stability and unipolarity, which provided the foundation for the dollar’s sustenance as the pre-eminent global reserve currency, has already peaked and the global economy of the future will revolve around a multipolar order. The rise of China, along with other emerging markets, is rapidly redrawing the traditional Western dominated global economic system. The structural challenges facing the American economy along with the extraordinary expansion of Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the explosion of the US government debt will diminish the attractiveness of the dollar standard going forward. Our analysis suggests that a tripolar currency order—consisting of the dollar, the yuan and the euro—will replace the dollar standard in the coming decades.