Friday, August 1, 2025

US Labor Market Resilience - More Hype than Reality

As I noted in an earlier post (see link below), initial nonfarm payroll jobs numbers were giving a false signal regarding the health of the U.S. labor market. They were being subject to repeated and significant downward revisions. We now know that the first half of 2025 was a disaster from a job creation perspective:
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm

From May 2, 2025:
US Nonfarm Payrolls – Pay Attention to Data Revisions

https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2025/05/us-nonfarm-payrolls-pay-attention-to.html

Here are today's revised figures from BLS:


Big Downward Jobs Revisions Could Be a Warning Sign for the Economy
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/business/economy/jobs-report-revisions-us-economy.html
Employers added far fewer jobs in May and June than previously reported. Such downgrades have historically meant trouble for the labor market.