Thursday, July 31, 2025

Will Fed Suffer from Fiscal Dominance?

Trump’s Fight with the Fed Won’t End with Rate Cuts
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/31/business/trump-fed-interest-rate-cuts.html
President Trump wants the Fed to slash borrowing costs, but the central bank is unlikely to take such aggressive steps even once it begins to lower interest rates. 

No Help Wanted, No Economic Growth
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/no-help-wanted-no-economic-growth-central-banking-cuts-109e4aaf
If Congress doesn’t control the deficit, there is a risk of a fiscal revolt that would force the Fed into a Japanese-style yield curve control. Ten-year Treasury rates above 5% are intolerable for the housing market and the fiscal situation. A future Fed could be forced to call a fiscal emergency and cap the 10-year yield at 5% if the situation were dire.


Related:
Investors beware: Fiscal dominance and financial repression ahead by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR, The Hill - 07/13/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5397963-fed-keeping-rates-low-trump-administration/