Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Fed's Dot-Plot - Hardly Helpful

The Fed’s Dot-Plot Predicament: False Precision in Uncertain Times
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-dot-plot-interest-rate-1ba785fd
Investors treat the Fed’s rate projections as a promise from central bankers. They’re not. 

The Fed Is Waiting Until the Whites of Recession’s Eyes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-18/the-federal-reserve-s-hold-creates-downside-equity-risk
 
The Fed Isn’t Calling It ‘Stagflation,’ but the Risks Are Rising
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/18/business/fed-stagflation-trump-tariffs.html
President Trump’s trade war is likely to lead to higher prices and slower growth, a challenging combination for the Fed. War in the Middle East could make the job harder still.