Attention Economy


Wednesday, October 23, 2024

Economic Commentary

In chronological order:


Higher interest rates, please: The Fed must raise its long-term target for a soft landing 
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4701798-the-fed-needs-to-set-a-higher-target-for-long-term-interest-rates/
‘Immaculate disinflation?’ We’ve come a long way, but we’re not quite there yet 
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4586002-immaculate-disinflation-weve-come-a-long-way-but-were-not-quite-there-yet/
Back to the future? The new interest rate normal might look a lot like the pre-crash era
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4299865-back-to-the-future-the-new-interest-rate-normal-might-look-a-lot-like-the-pre-crash-era/
‘Overly data-dependent’ — how the Fed and the markets keep getting it wrong
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4189467-overly-data-dependent-how-the-fed-and-the-markets-keep-getting-it-wrong/
Fitch’s downgrade of US debt wasn’t a mistake — it was long overdue 
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4138215-fitchs-downgrade-wasnt-a-mistake-it-was-long-overdue/
Traditional recession indicators have misfired — are we in for a sneaky recession?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4121540-traditional-recession-indicators-have-misfired-are-we-in-for-a-sneaky-recession/
Did we just dodge a recession? 
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4024671-did-we-just-dodge-a-recession/
Will the Fed keep interest rates ‘higher for longer’? 
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4005495-will-the-fed-keep-interest-rates-higher-for-longer/ 
Those predicting a soft economic landing may be in for a rude awakening
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3987045-those-predicting-a-soft-economic-landing-may-be-in-for-a-rude-awakening/ 
America’s long-term fiscal sustainability challenge
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3965613-americas-long-term-fiscal-sustainability-challenge/
Shifting Monetary Policy Lags Confuse Markets and Central Bankers
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3921016-shifting-monetary-policy-lags-confuse-markets-and-central-bankers/
What triggered Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse? 
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3898758-what-triggered-silicon-valley-banks-collapse/
Are markets right in expecting an ‘immaculate disinflation’? 
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3844349-are-markets-right-in-expecting-an-immaculate-disinflation/  
As the Federal Reserve prepares for another interest rate hike, volatility lies ahead
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3836869-as-the-federal-reserve-prepares-to-hike-interest-rates-again-volatility-lies-ahead/
Did Misreading of Key Labor Market Shifts Lead the Fed Astray? 
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3722589-did-misreading-of-key-labor-market-shifts-lead-the-fed-astray/
Will financial stability concerns derail the Fed’s inflation fight?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3691022-will-financial-stability-concerns-derail-the-feds-inflation-fight/
Will the UK's Economic Gamble Pay Off?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3664758-will-the-uks-economic-gamble-pay-off/
The puzzling disconnect between production and employment
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3650164-the-puzzling-disconnect-between-production-and-employment/
Are investors right in expecting a dovish Fed pivot? 
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3582559-are-investors-right-in-expecting-a-dovish-fed-pivot/
Is a recession inevitable?
New era of inflation will bedevil central banks and bond markets
How resilient are US consumers? We’ll soon find out
Where Are Interest Rates Headed?
Is the US housing market headed for a price correction?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/597311-does-the-spike-in-oil-prices-presage-an-economic-downturn
The weaponization of finance threatens the future of the dollar standard
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/593986-can-the-fed-regain-its-credibility
Health care and higher education: Key drivers of long-term inflation
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/591995-health-care-and-higher-education-key-drivers-of-long-term-inflation
Is the US higher education bubble about to burst?
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/590971-will-the-us-higher-education-bubble-finally-burst
Can the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing for the US economy?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/587953-can-the-federal-reserve-engineer-a-soft-landing-for-the-us-economy 
How did the Fed get it so wrong on inflation?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/581582-how-did-the-fed-get-it-so-wrong-on-inflation
A still-dovish Fed raises the risk of stagflation lite
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/580712-a-still-dovish-fed-raises-the-risk-of-stagflation-lite
Is the robust job market masking underlying labor market risks?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/578220-is-the-robust-job-market-masking-underlying-labor-market-risks
China's future hinges on Xi's radical economic reforms
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/573971-chinas-future-hinges-on-xis-radical-economic-reforms 
The debate we should be having about the Federal Reserve
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/570895-the-debate-we-should-be-having-about-the-federal-reserve
The delta variant will slow but not derail the ongoing economic recovery
The Fed's risky quest for maximum employment
It's time to ease up on the stimulus accelerator
Is the recent dip in Treasury yields a cause for concern?
Is the US housing boom a cause for concern? 
What comes after the stimulus-fueled short-term economic boom 
The economic trends that will create post-pandemic policy challenges 
Have misguided policies led to recent asset bubbles and boom-bust cycles?
The pros and cons of running the economy hot 
What is behind the recent surge in the price of Bitcoin? 
Are the increasingly upbeat economic forecasts for 2021 warranted
The economic challenges facing the Yellen-Powell policy duo 
Is there an economic case for saving regional public universities and mid-tier private colleges?  [with Brian Kench] 
Near-term economic challenges facing the incoming Biden administration 
Why did the US trade deficit sharply deteriorate during the pandemic? 
Has US business dynamism declined?
How technology shapes globalization
Will the pandemic further polarize the US labor market?
Will the Fed's recasting of its monetary policy strategy help the US economy?
To make capitalism more attractive, policymakers must emphasize pro-market (not pro-business) policies
Will the pandemic exacerbate or reduce economic inequality in the US? 
The debate should be about the quality – not the size – of government
What explains the widening gap between Wall Street and Main Street?
As the economic recovery falters, is more stimulus the answer?  [with Brian Kench]
Big Tech and the antitrust debate: Do network effects outweigh competition concerns?
The COVID-19 shock may fundamentally alter the economics of private colleges
Exploding public debt: A cause for concern?  [with Brian Kench]
Will inflation Cassandras be proven wrong once again? [with Brian Kench]
Quoted in – How the Pandemic Is Imperiling a Working-Class College
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