A great piece from Stephen Mihm:
Update - Some US States more vulnerable than others http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-22/recession-already-reality-in-spots-from-west-virginia-to-wyoming
Technical analysis:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/12/recession-might-be-in-the-cards-if-historys-a-guide-analyst.html