Rethinking Global Alliances in the Trump Era

The resurrection of the London-Paris-Berlin triangle
https://www.ft.com/content/fb29477b-6212-4974-963f-530e96491a29
In the face of geopolitical instability, close trilateral relations are essential.
 
The importance of India and Europe walking in step
https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-importance-of-india-and-europe-walking-in-step/article69811956.ece 

Trump versus Markets: Circular Logic?

Trump TACO trade contains seeds of own unravelling
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/trump-taco-trade-contains-seeds-own-unravelling-2025-07-11/
Buoyant markets may reflect hopes that the US president will always chicken out of imposing harsh tariffs. Yet Donald Trump now cites largely calm stocks as cause for fresh charges, such as a 35% Canada levy. That sows the seed for a larger correction if he sticks to his guns. 

Travel: Best Countries to Visit

The 10 best countries on Earth

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/telegraph-travel-awards-2025-best-countries/

Shifts in Western Political Economy

Democratic socialism is dying. First the socialism, now the democracy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/12/democratic-socialism-dying-first-socialism-then-democracy/
Janet Daley:
So what went wrong? Why are our attempts to create an ethically acceptable state, funded by free markets (which is the definition of democratic socialism) becoming untenable? As the identity crisis of the West becomes more deranging, both halves of this idealistic formula – democracy and socialism – are becoming contentious.
The socialism part has simply turned out to be infinitely expensive. As Kemi Badenoch put it last week, the UK is now in danger of becoming “a welfare state with an economy attached”. Once the principle of relieving poverty became a commitment to removing all wealth inequality, the project was headed for self-destruction. 

Related:

The left’s losing streak
https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2025/07/the-lefts-losing-streak
Why populists keep winning and what progressives should do about it.

Which Forecast Do You Trust?

US recession risk soars as Trump tariffs hammer households
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/13/us-recession-risk-five-year-high-trump-hammers-households/
 
Economists See Lower Recession Risk and Stronger Job Growth: WSJ Survey
https://www.wsj.com/economy/economists-see-lower-recession-risk-and-stronger-job-growth-wsj-survey-10d6e476 

Fiscal Dominance and Financial Repression

Investors beware: Fiscal dominance and financial repression ahead by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR, The Hill - 07/13/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5397963-fed-keeping-rates-low-trump-administration/

Related:

Carmen Reinhart
https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2025/q3_interview
On twin financial and currency crises, the future of the dollar, and sovereign debt

Trump May End Up Sorry He Tried to Control the Fed
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-may-end-up-sorry-he-tried-to-control-the-fed-852b0dc5
Presidents struggled with monetary policy even before the central bank’s formal independence.
 
About That Tariff Budget Surplus
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariff-revenue-scott-bessent-federal-budget-deficit-04d771fd
Tariff income won’t come close to balancing the federal fisc.

Human Skills in the Age of AI

What Do Commercials About A.I. Really Promise?
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/critics-notebook/what-do-commercials-about-ai-really-promise
If human workers don’t have to read, write, or even think, it’s unclear what’s left for them to do.