Friday, August 22, 2014

Economic Stagnation - Lessons From the Past

There is a lot of debate currently about stagnation in advanced countries. GMU economist Tyler Cowen reaches back to the 18thand 19th century to provide an important historical example:
“For all the talk of the Great Depression, we might look at a different exemplar for modern times, 18th- and 19th-century economic history in India. That country’s economic retrogression during that era may help us understand the quandary that some parts of the world face today.
In 1750, India accounted for one-quarter of the world’s manufacturing output, but by 1900 that was down to 2 percent. The West became more productive as a result of the Industrial Revolution, and India lost much of its leading export sector, textiles. While the data is fragmentary, the best estimates show that India’s living standards declined through the middle of the 19th century and that its economy retrogressed, even as it borrowed some technological improvements from the West. India just didn’t do enough to move toward production on a larger scale or with better machines.”

Of course, the impact of British colonization of India (which began in the 18th century) cannot be under emphasized. It was not exactly in the interest of British East India Company or the Crown to promote industrialization of India !!

An interesting book related to the topic is:
Why Europe Grew Rich and Asia Did Not: Global Economic Divergence, 1600-1850 by Prasannan Parthasarathi (Sep 30, 2011)
http://www.amazon.com/Why-Europe-Grew-Rich-Asia/dp/0521168244

Does Fiscal Devaluation Work?


To overcome the constraints imposed by the currency union on Eurozone policymakers, some economists have proposed fiscal devaluation during periods of economic distress. See for instance:

Recent research from the ECB appears to suggest that fiscal devaluation might indeed work:

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Income Per Capita Convergence

Income per Capita Convergence - Interesting Articles:

The always provocative Ricardo Hausmann on income per capita convergence

Interesting new research on economic convergence:

Convergence, Interdependence, and Divergence by Kemal Dervis
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2012/09/pdf/dervis.pdf

A Game of Catch-Up, The Economist (2011) http://www.economist.com/node/21528979

Converging Economies, The Economist (2011) http://www.economist.com/node/21528985