Germany’s spending gamble | FT Film
Can Germany’s debt brake reform kickstart its economic engine?
Can Germany’s debt brake reform kickstart its economic engine?
Thursday, July 24, 2025
The New Tariff Normal
Trump’s New Trade Standard Takes Shape With 15% Tariff Deal
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-trade-deal-15-percent-tariffs-16aeb256
The Price of Winning the Trade War
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/japan-trade-deal-donald-trump-tariffs-shigeru-ishiba-70f60e60
The Japan deal is a relief, but only because the alternative is worse.
Trump’s Tariffs Are the Highest in a Century. But After His Threats, They Seem Like a Relief.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/business/economy/trump-tariffs-japan.html
The president imposed tariffs on Japan, one of America’s closest allies, that would have been alarming just months ago. And markets went up.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-trade-deal-15-percent-tariffs-16aeb256
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/japan-trade-deal-donald-trump-tariffs-shigeru-ishiba-70f60e60
The Japan deal is a relief, but only because the alternative is worse.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/business/economy/trump-tariffs-japan.html
The president imposed tariffs on Japan, one of America’s closest allies, that would have been alarming just months ago. And markets went up.
About That Japan Deal
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/about-that-japan-deal
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/about-that-japan-deal
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/business/economy/japan-fund-trump-tariffs-trade.html
Wednesday, July 23, 2025
Executive Overreach
The Lunacy of Lawfare Against the Fed
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/jerome-powell-anna-paulina-luna-lawfare-federal-reserve-donald-trump-be289db7
Criminalizing a spat over interest rates is an Argentina-level mistake.
Trump is ruling America like a petty, vindictive mob boss
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2025/07/22/trump-is-ruling-america-like-petty-vindictive-mob-boss/
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/jerome-powell-anna-paulina-luna-lawfare-federal-reserve-donald-trump-be289db7
Criminalizing a spat over interest rates is an Argentina-level mistake.
Trump is ruling America like a petty, vindictive mob boss
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/comment/2025/07/22/trump-is-ruling-america-like-petty-vindictive-mob-boss/
Columbia University economist Suresh Naidu:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/opinion/trump-columbia-deal-professor.html
In economic history, we teach the 1688 creation of parliamentary supremacy as a solution to what economists call “commitment problems.” In the absence of a third party sufficiently strong to make sure all sides stick to their promises, the powerful can renege on the powerless. The powerless, seeing this, wisely choose to not contract with the powerful. Absolutist rulers are victims of their own lack of restraints; a sovereign who is too powerful cannot get inexpensive credit, because nothing stops the ruler from defaulting on any bond. President Trump, by smashing checks on his authority, has wound up undermining his own ability to make credible deals, including the one just reached with Columbia University
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/opinion/trump-columbia-deal-professor.html
In economic history, we teach the 1688 creation of parliamentary supremacy as a solution to what economists call “commitment problems.” In the absence of a third party sufficiently strong to make sure all sides stick to their promises, the powerful can renege on the powerless. The powerless, seeing this, wisely choose to not contract with the powerful. Absolutist rulers are victims of their own lack of restraints; a sovereign who is too powerful cannot get inexpensive credit, because nothing stops the ruler from defaulting on any bond. President Trump, by smashing checks on his authority, has wound up undermining his own ability to make credible deals, including the one just reached with Columbia University
Emerging Markets - Justly Rewarded
Emerging market borrowing premium over US falls to nearly lowest since 2007
https://www.ft.com/content/c9392546-a1f9-4129-ac7c-d34301a640af
Yields for investment-grade EM borrowers fall relative to developed markets amid concerns over traditional havens.
Related:
https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/pdf/en-US/Emerging-economies-longer-vulnerable-US-monetary-policy-once-were-7/15/2025,51751
https://www.ft.com/content/c9392546-a1f9-4129-ac7c-d34301a640af
Yields for investment-grade EM borrowers fall relative to developed markets amid concerns over traditional havens.
Related:
https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/pdf/en-US/Emerging-economies-longer-vulnerable-US-monetary-policy-once-were-7/15/2025,51751
UK's Foreign Policy Mess
The great Afghan cover-up
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2025/07/the-great-afghan-cover-up
This data breach is a humiliation of the British state – and its pretensions to intervene abroad.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2025/07/the-great-afghan-cover-up
This data breach is a humiliation of the British state – and its pretensions to intervene abroad.
The High Court’s war on truth
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-high-courts-war-on-truth/
This is important because – sorry to state the obvious – laws and regulations are drafted in words. Government can only function if language functions. MPs vote on bills written in words that must mean roughly the same thing to every other MP. Citizens are told what laws to follow in words as well. Yet if judges may subsequently interpret legal text like Humpty-Dumpty, there are no laws. The whole set-up falls apart. We’re ruled by arbitrary court decrees, which are not bound by the Oxford Desk Dictionary or any other staid reference book insisting that words mean something in particular.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-high-courts-war-on-truth/
This is important because – sorry to state the obvious – laws and regulations are drafted in words. Government can only function if language functions. MPs vote on bills written in words that must mean roughly the same thing to every other MP. Citizens are told what laws to follow in words as well. Yet if judges may subsequently interpret legal text like Humpty-Dumpty, there are no laws. The whole set-up falls apart. We’re ruled by arbitrary court decrees, which are not bound by the Oxford Desk Dictionary or any other staid reference book insisting that words mean something in particular.
Who Pays for Trump Tariffs?
US Companies, Consumers Are Paying for Trump's Tariffs, Not Foreign Firms
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-22/us-companies-and-consumers-are-paying-for-trump-s-tariffs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-22/us-companies-and-consumers-are-paying-for-trump-s-tariffs
The US Can Survive Tariffs. That Doesn’t Mean They’re Worth It.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-23/trump-tariffs-us-can-survive-them-that-doesn-t-make-then-good
Slower growth and persistent underperformance won’t kill the economy, but they don’t amount to a win.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-23/trump-tariffs-us-can-survive-them-that-doesn-t-make-then-good
Slower growth and persistent underperformance won’t kill the economy, but they don’t amount to a win.
Tuesday, July 22, 2025
China's Problem - Too Much Competition
China’s Problem with Competition: There’s Too Much of It
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/business/china-involution-competition-deflation.html
The Chinese government is taking steps to rein in what it calls “involution,” or excessive competition that is hurting local companies and fueling the country’s deflationary spiral.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/business/china-involution-competition-deflation.html
The Chinese government is taking steps to rein in what it calls “involution,” or excessive competition that is hurting local companies and fueling the country’s deflationary spiral.
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