Opportunity Cost

The Economics of DIY
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-economics-of-diy-and-opportunity-cost-for-americans-f6fbf17d
Should you hire someone to mow your lawn or clean your house? It’s a question of opportunity cost. 

Trump versus Powell

Trump’s Withering Criticism of Powell Puts Fed Decisions Under Microscope
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/18/business/trump-fed-interest-rates-powell.html
The central bank is poised to hold interest rates steady this month, but there could be a path to cut as early as September.

The ‘Fed Mahal’ Is an Act of Central-Bank Self-Sabotage
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-fed-mahal-is-an-act-of-central-bank-self-sabotage-powell-trump-143e945f
Any bureaucracy will build itself a palace if given the chance. This one is a threat to its independence.

The Global Risks That Come with the Loss of an Independent Fed
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-independence-financial-markets-df8fdebc
It isn’t just the U.S. Other countries have also come to expect an independent U.S. central bank.

Trump Wants Lower Rates. Firing Powell Could Push Them Higher.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/17/business/trump-powell-federal-reserve-higher-rates.html
Investors, not the Fed, control the interest rates that matter most to businesses and consumers. They might demand higher returns if the central bank’s independence comes into question.

Why Political Pressure on Central Banks Is So Toxic for Investors
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/trump-central-bank-political-pressure-powell-investors-9798c6a8
Politicians often want lower rates; central banks seek stable prices. 

President Trump Reshapes Global Trade

Forget TACO. Trump Is Winning His Trade War.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/forget-taco-trump-is-winning-his-trade-war-8af6f777
The president wants tariffs, the higher the better. Whether that is achieved unilaterally or via deals is secondary. 

It’s No Bluff: The Tariff Rate Is Soaring Under Trump
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/us/politics/trump-tariffs.html
The president has earned a reputation for bluffing on tariffs. But he has steadily and dramatically raised U.S. tariffs, transforming global trade.

 

The Economy Has Been Resilient. The New Round of Tariffs May Hit Harder.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/us/politics/tariff-threats-us-economy.html
The economy’s resilience so far to President Trump’s global trade war risks emboldening him and unleashing the sort of economic devastation that economists have long feared.

Trump Bets Constantly Shifting Tariff Strategy Can Remake Global Trade
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-tariffs-trade-policy-negotiations-0e4dbbe3
President wants to keep other countries guessing, but his strategy faces risks.
 
Households will pay an average of $2,400 more for goods this year, thanks to Trump’s policies.
https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/07/trump-tariffs-trade-war-ongoing/683476/ 

Treasurys versus Gilts

British debt is a screaming buy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/16/british-debt-is-a-screaming-buy/
Mispriced, overlooked and poised for a major reappraisal – UK gilts are a global bargain.

Did Economists Get it Wrong Again?

The Economy Seems Healthy. Were the Warnings About Tariffs Overblown?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/16/business/tariffs-recession-economists.html
Economists say it will take time for the effects of trade policies to show up in economic data — but acknowledge they aren’t sure how long. 

The US economy is more fragile than it appears  
https://www.ft.com/content/c9cc2569-8dd6-46ec-839c-6451b8ad6bfd
Jobs, consumers and stock values are at an ominous inflection point.

Tariff 'doom loop' hangs over global equities
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/tariff-doom-loop-hangs-over-global-equities-2025-07-15/
The astonishing rebound in stocks since early April largely reflects investors' bet that U.S. President Donald Trump won't follow through on his tariff threats.

Bank Regulations - End of an Era?

Post-Crisis Rules to Keep Banks Safe Are on the Way Out
https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/financial-crisis-bank-regulations-lobbying-ef9bb0b4
On both sides of the Atlantic, there is a new willingness to rethink tough banking regulations. 

Interest Rates and Public Debt Management

Bessent's Interest Rate Bet Could Be a Big Loser
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-15/bessent-s-interest-rate-bet-could-be-a-big-loser
Regular and predictable debt management saves the government money. Why abandon it?

Revisiting the Interest Rate Effects of Federal Debt
https://www.nber.org/papers/w34018 

My take:

Investors beware: Fiscal dominance and financial repression ahead by VIVEKANAND JAYAKUMAR, The Hill - 07/13/25
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5397963-fed-keeping-rates-low-trump-administration/