Debating the Impact of AI

 How One Tech Skeptic Decided A.I. Might Benefit the Middle Class
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/business/ai-tech-economy.html
David Autor, an M.I.T. economist and tech contrarian, argues that A.I. is fundamentally different from past waves of computerization.

Will A.I. Boost Productivity? Companies Sure Hope So.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/01/business/economy/artificial-intelligence-productivity.html

Economists doubt that artificial intelligence is already visible in productivity data. Big companies, however, talk often about adopting it to improve efficiency.

Should Workers Fear AI?

https://www.project-syndicate.org/magazine/ai-workers-fears-overblown-especially-with-prudent-policies-by-christopher-pissarides-2024-03

While hand-wringing about AI's implications for work and labor markets is understandable, economic history and current data make clear that the most common fears are largely overblown. Current applications are nowhere near levels that can threaten jobs or even have a noticeable effect on productivity statistics.

 

The AI deepfake apocalypse is here. These are the ideas for fighting it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/04/05/ai-deepfakes-detection/

A growing group of researchers and start-ups are building tools to identify and track deepfake images before they take over the internet completely.

 

How to Regulate Artificial Intelligence

https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/how-to-regulate-artificial-intelligence

The emergence of generative artificial intelligence in the last few years has drawn a growing chorus of advocates offering proposals for how to regulate this new technology. Many of them want to treat AI as an entirely new kind of challenge that calls for entirely new regulatory tools. But starting from scratch is unlikely to lead us to effective regulation. Instead, regulators should begin from our existing tools and take the time to see what new modes of regulation might be needed.

The Debates Surrounding Democracy

DEMOCRACY IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES

Why America is a “flawed democracy”

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/03/21/why-america-is-a-flawed-democracy

EIU’s index plots the country’s democratic decline since 2006

How Capitalism Became a Threat to Democracy
https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/how-capitalism-became-a-threat-to-democracy-by-mordecai-kurz-2024-03
Since the 1980s, American capitalism has been transformed into a winner-takes-all economy in which one or a few technologically dominant firms monopolize each sector at the expense of consumers, workers, and overall growth. And with permanent market power comes the kind of political power that is antithetical to democracy.

The Cure for What Ails Our Democracy
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/15/opinion/democracy-good-evil.html 
 
Is the rich world stuck in an ‘upper-income trap’?
https://www.ft.com/content/bc830276-c8d0-465a-88fc-e06eb83be90b 

Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens by Martin Gilens (Princeton University) and Benjamin I. Page (Northwestern University); Perspectives on Politics
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens/62327F513959D0A304D4893B382B992B
Abstract
Each of four theoretical traditions in the study of American politics – which can be characterized as theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy, Economic Elite Domination, and two types of interest group pluralism, Majoritarian Pluralism and Biased Pluralism – offers different predictions about which sets of actors have how much influence over public policy: average citizens; economic elites; and organized interest groups, mass-based or business-oriented.
A great deal of empirical research speaks to the policy influence of one or another set of actors, but until recently it has not been possible to test these contrasting theoretical predictions against each other within a single statistical model. This paper reports on an effort to do so, using a unique data set that includes measures of the key variables for 1,779 policy issues.
Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence. The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic Elite Domination and for theories of Biased Pluralism, but not for theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism.

DEMOCRACY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

For all its faults, democracy is still better than autocracy
https://www.ft.com/content/9285ed6e-fb71-4b10-bf5c-b4f83a140675
All the evidence shows that despotism cannot consistently deliver the economic goods for developing countries
 
Political Institutions, Economic Growth, and Democracy: The Substitute Effect
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/political-institutions-economic-growth-and-democracy-the-substitute-effect/
 
Economic development promotes democracy, but there’s a catch
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/12/29/economic-development-promotes-democracy-but-theres-a-catch/
 
The democratic transition by Fabrice Murtin & Romain Wacziarg
https://www.jstor.org/stable/44113423
Abstract
Over the last two centuries, many countries experienced regime transitions toward democracy. We document this democratic transition over a long time horizon. We use historical time series of income, education and democracy levels from 1870 to 2000 to explore the economic factors associated with rising levels of democracy. We find that primary schooling, and to a weaker extent per capita income levels, are strong determinants of the quality of political institutions. We find little evidence of causality running the other way, from democracy to income or education.

A New Growth Model for Emerging Economies?

Poor Nations Are Writing a New Handbook for Getting Rich

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/02/business/economy/global-economic-growth.html

Economies focused on exports have lifted millions out of poverty, but epochal changes in trade, supply chains and technology are making it a lot harder.

Labor Market Data and Monetary Policy

 Wobbly jobs data leaves central bankers on shaky ground
https://www.ft.com/content/e4d19c1e-2c37-4291-857a-10af92a2e8b5
Economists question whether official reports offer accurate guide to the labor market

Politics, Economics, and the Future of American Capitalism

Ro Khanna Wants to Be the Future of the Democratic Party
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/04/ro-khanna-california-biden-progressive/677888/
Khanna, a congressman who represents Silicon Valley, sees himself as a bridge between America’s faded industrial might and its digital future.
 
Here’s why Americans under 40 are so disillusioned with capitalism
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/04/01/millennials-capitalism-security-retirement/
If business leaders want to reduce workers’ anxiety, they could start by helping to give them a secure retirement again. 

From Magnificent Seven to Fab Four

The Stock Market’s Magnificent Seven Is Now the Fab Four
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-stock-markets-magnificent-seven-is-now-the-fab-four-2dff87ac
Some investors say it is a bullish signal that the market is rallying without the likes of Apple and Tesla because it means other groups are taking part. 

Gen Z Gives Skills Trade a Try

How Gen Z Is Becoming the Toolbelt Generation

https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/gen-z-trades-jobs-plumbing-welding-a76b5e43

More young workers are going into trades as disenchantment with the college track continues, and rising pay and new technologies shine up plumbing and electrical jobs.

 

Related:

https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2021/02/worker-retraining-and-skills-trade.html

https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2024/02/a-balanced-take-on-value-of-college.html