Long-Term Rate Outlook

Summers Warns of Interest Rates Well Above 3% Through 2030
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-02/summers-warns-interest-rates-may-be-well-above-3-through-2030
 
My take from last November:
Back to the future? The new interest rate normal might look a lot like the pre-crash era
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4299865-back-to-the-future-the-new-interest-rate-normal-might-look-a-lot-like-the-pre-crash-era 

A Strong Job Report and Another Forecast Miss

Economists Expected a Hiring Slowdown. So Much for That.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/02/business/job-growth-economy-expectations.html
Jobs and wage gains remain robust despite the Federal Reserve’s campaign to cool the economy, surprising policymakers and economic forecasters.
 
A Jobs Mystery: Where Are All the New Employees Coming From?
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/a-jobs-mystery-where-are-all-the-new-employees-coming-from-6dda0d60
Discrepancies in government data mean the economy might have more room to add jobs than previously thought
 
BLS Report:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf 

British Businesses Continue to Struggle

The Squeeze on British Businesses Is Not Letting Up Soon
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/01/business/uk-business-interest-rates.html
Company insolvencies hit a three-decade high, with businesses under pressure from high debts, prices and interest rates. The Bank of England held rates steady on Thursday. 

Sticky Prices and Food Inflation

Why groceries are still so expensive despite cooling inflation
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/02/02/grocery-price-inflation-biden/
Price hikes have moderated throughout the U.S. economy, but food prices have remained persistently high. 

Lessons from Japan

Stocks for the Looong Run: Could Japan’s Lost Decades Happen in America?
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/stocks-for-the-looong-run-could-japans-lost-decades-happen-in-america-71d9e17c
Tokyo’s market has almost broken even after 34 years, pointing to the dangers of extreme bubbles

China needs to learn lessons from 1990s Japan
https://www.ft.com/content/903ec970-4d8e-42c7-86f1-56b3e2afb8ae
There are mistakes that policymakers in Beijing should avoid when grappling with a property crisis  

Global Trade and 'Freedom of Navigation'

On the High Seas, a Pillar of Global Trade Is Under Attack
https://www.wsj.com/world/on-the-high-seas-a-pillar-of-global-trade-is-under-attack-f6e495c5
Security crises from Red Sea to Black Sea pose a troubling question: How much has freedom of navigation been an anomaly? 

AI's Impact on Tech, Finance, and Jobs

Generative A.I.’s Biggest Impact Will Be in Banking and Tech, Report Says
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/01/business/ai-impact-jobs.html
For some companies, the new technology is an opportunity to enhance productivity and profit. Will their workers benefit as well?
Related Report:
https://shrm-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/v1706729099/AI/CPR-230956_Research_Gen-AI-Workplace_FINAL_1.pdf 

The Worst Part of a Wall Street Career May Be Coming to an End
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/business/investment-banking-jobs-artificial-intelligence.html
Artificial intelligence tools can replace much of Wall Street’s entry-level white-collar work, raising tough questions about the future of finance. 

Could AI 'trading bots' transform the world of investing?
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68092814

How Gen AI will change asset management
https://www.ft.com/content/3adbf2c0-80d5-4574-9a47-6a9672700077

The Intelligence Paradox: AI May Make Markets Less Rational
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-intelligence-paradox-ai-may-make-markets-less-rational-8fadffeb
Even the smartest algorithm has to operate within its limitations on risk and capital.

AI’S REVERBERATIONS ACROSS FINANCE
https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/Fandd/Article/2023/December/38-41-kearns-final.ashx

In Reversal Because of A.I., Office Jobs Are Now More at Risk
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/24/upshot/artificial-intelligence-jobs.html
Technology disruption typically affected blue-collar occupations. Now white-collar workers may feel the brunt of changes.

CBS 60 Minutes on Artificial Intelligence