American Foreign Policy - Isolationist or Interventionist

Taiwan’s Doubts About America Are Growing. That Could Be Dangerous.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/20/world/asia/taiwan-united-states-views.html
Will deepening skepticism about the United States as a trustworthy nation diminish Taiwan’s belief that it could fend off China?
 
ROSS DOUTHAT:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/20/opinion/nikki-haley-trump-foreign-policy.html
“… when the history of 21st-century American decline is written, the crucial chapter will focus not on Trump but on one of his predecessors, George W. Bush: a better man than Trump, a capable politician with a number of sound policies to his credit, but also the architect of a hubristic foreign policy whose disastrous effects continue to ripple through the country and the world.
The Iraq war and the slower, longer failure in Afghanistan didn’t just begin the unraveling of the Pax Americana. They also discredited the American establishment at home, shattering the center-right and undermining the center-left, dissolving confidence in politicians, bureaucracies and even the military itself, while the war’s social effects lingered in the opioid epidemic and the mental health crisis …
the greater peril is an American establishment and an American president who overestimate our powers, commit ourselves too broadly and too thinly, and end up facing a series of outright military debacles and defeats.”. 

Balneario Camboriu - The ‘Dubai of Brazil’

The ‘Dubai of Brazil’ Is a Bet on a Future that Only Goes Up
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-brazil-balneario-camboriu/
Balneario Camboriu has become a test case for what happens when private developers are given free rein 

Related:
New Utopian Enclave? Or a Testament to Inequality?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/18/world/americas/cayala-guatemala.html
The development of Cayalá is utopian, serene and prizewinning. As an elite stronghold in one of Latin America’s most unequal nations, it is also divisive.

Resilient Consumers Prop Up the American Economy

The U.S. Seems to Be Dodging a Recession. What Could Go Wrong?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/20/business/economy/economy-recession-soft-landing.html
Economists have become increasingly optimistic about the odds of a soft landing. But as 2024 begins to unfold, risks remain.

Americans Are Suddenly a Lot More Upbeat About the Economy
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/americans-are-finally-feeling-better-about-the-economy-e964804f

Related:
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/how-the-american-shopper-silenced-doubters-95f577a3 

A New Record High for US Equities

These Seven Tech Stocks Are Driving the Market
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/22/business/magnificent-seven-stocks-tech.html

Stocks Climb to Record, Lifted by Big Tech and Rate Cut Hopes
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/19/business/stock-market-record.html
The S&P 500 crossed above its January 2022 peak after weeks of wavering. Investors have been buying stocks after homing in on signals that the Fed’s campaign of raising interest rates is over.

An Optimistic Take:
This Isn’t Your Father’s S&P 500. Don’t Worry About Valuations.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-19/s-p-500-don-t-let-valuations-new-record-worry-you
While the onus is on companies to beat earnings projections after the index printed a fresh record, we have the right cohort of companies to get the job done.

Cautionary Takes:

The perils of investing in the world of one trade
https://www.ft.com/content/6037e1e6-1326-4159-94a9-9a1b5130a4fc
Where US interest rates are headed will still be the biggest influence on investment performance

Stocks Are at Record Highs, but Things Will Only Get Harder from Here
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stocks-are-at-record-highs-but-things-will-only-get-harder-from-here-d528a6dc
Expectations for interest-rate cuts are waning. Some investors say stock gains might be hard-won as a result.

Why Investing for the Long-Run Truly Matters:
The Market Has Had a Fabulous Run, but This Peak Doesn’t Really Matter
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/20/business/stock-market-peak-investing.html
Compound returns that grow as stocks rise over the decades are far more important than the latest high, our columnist says.

Improving the Jobs Prospects of High School Graduates

Empowering Our Future Workforce Requires Transforming High Schools
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-19/michael-r-bloomberg-health-care-needs-america-s-high-school-students
Michael Bloomberg:
“… the current 2 million job openings in health care offer median starting salaries as high as $70,000, as well as opportunities for growth and advancement. So why aren’t American high schools preparing students for these jobs?
Too many political leaders pretend all students want to go to college. Students who seek to begin working immediately after high school often get shunted into antiquated vocational programs for jobs that are dying out. An overhaul of these programs is long overdue, to align them with both student interest and economic realities — and health care is the perfect place to start”. 

US Housing Market – Existing Home Sales Tanked in 2023

Home Sales Fell to Lowest Level in 28 Years in 2023
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-likely-fell-to-15-year-low-in-2023-3da220e1
High mortgage rates and prices made home-buying prohibitively expensive for many people in the U.S. last year.
 
The Economy Is Starting to Look Normal—Housing Isn’t
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/the-economy-is-starting-to-look-normalhousing-isnt-66266f5d 

Hybrid Work/Remote Work and Productivity

Interesting new research from the San Francisco Fed:
Does Working from Home Boost Productivity Growth?
https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2024-02.pdf
The shift to remote and hybrid work has reshaped society in important ways, and these effects are likely to continue to evolve. For example, with less time spent commuting, some people have moved out of cities, and the lines between work and home life have blurred. Despite these noteworthy effects, in this Letter we find little evidence in industry data that the shift to remote and hybrid work has either substantially held back or boosted the rate of productivity growth.
Our findings do not rule out possible future changes in productivity growth from the spread of remote work. The economic environment has changed in many ways during and since the pandemic, which could have masked the longer-run effects of teleworking. Continuous innovation is the key to sustained productivity growth. Working remotely could foster innovation through a reduction in communication costs and improved talent allocation across geographic areas. However, working off-site could also hamper innovation by reducing in-person office interactions that foster idea generation and diffusion. The future of work is likely to be a hybrid format that balances the benefits and limitations of remote work.