Wednesday, October 28, 2026

The Rental Market

A Punishing Housing Market Is Squeezing Renters
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/28/business/housing-market-rent-pressure.html
Higher mortgage rates and slowing residential construction are again giving landlords the upper hand.  

Will AI Investments Payoff?

What if AI turns out to be a terrible investment?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/10/28/what-if-ai-turns-out-to-be-a-terrible-investment/
The trillions being poured into computing infrastructure may never generate sufficient returns. 

China's AI Bubble Has Already Popped

Quants Rule

AI Talent War has Quant Firms Racing to Fund PhDs, Build Labs
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/ai-talent-war-has-quant-firms-racing-to-fund-phds--build-labs-88961.html
Wall Street’s quant firms have long been among the most lucrative destinations for the world’s top scientific minds. The AI boom has given those mathematicians and physicists another set of deep-pocketed suitors — and sent some of finance’s most secretive employers on an increasingly public recruitment drive. 

Tuesday, October 27, 2026

History Lessons: Technology and the Labor Market

For Clues About How A.I. Will Change Work, Look to the Past
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/22/business/economy/ai-economy-jobs-history.html
Economists hope earlier episodes of labor disruption, from the Industrial Revolution to the Great Depression, can help us prepare for the age of artificial intelligence. 

Lula’s Challenges


Brazilian Markets Convulse After Unexpected Election Result
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/26/business/brazil-stock-markets-election-lula.html
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s re-election victory prompted a sharp reversal in financial markets that had expected his opponent to win. 

 
Lula faces a fiscal reckoning after Brazil's market rout
https://www.ft.com/content/0231b234-14dc-4ff0-8263-e1063b0a25d5
 
Brazil's weird economy needs serious reform
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/10/22/brazils-weird-economy-needs-serious-reform 

Another Crash Landing for Brazil’s Economy?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brazil-fiscal-deterioration-under-lula-will-carry-high-domestic-costs-by-gene-frieda-2026-10
Brazil’s floating exchange rate, high foreign-exchange reserves, strong commodity exports, and debt denominated predominantly in its own currency reduce its exposure to a balance-of-payments crisis. Nonetheless, continued fiscal deterioration under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will carry high domestic costs.

Monday, October 26, 2026

Anthropic’s IPO

What’s Riding on Anthropic’s Market Debut? Nearly Everything.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/26/technology/anthropic-going-public-stakes.html
Anthropic sits atop a pyramid of business partners and suppliers, making it a barometer of the broader economy. Its initial public offering will have widespread implications. 

US Manufacturing Employment

U.S. Manufacturing Is Adding Jobs Again, but the Hiring Rules Have Changed
https://www.wsj.com/business/u-s-manufacturing-is-adding-jobs-again-but-the-hiring-rules-have-changed-29171127
While factory employment is on the rise, a shift toward high-tech automation is creating roles with greater barriers to entry. 

Forward Guidance and the Fed

Kevin Warsh, Forward Guidance and the Nobel Prize
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/kevin-warsh-forward-guidance-and-the-nobel-prize-ae265640
The winning economists make the case for the kind of forecasting the Fed chairman doesn’t like. 

Kevin Warsh Wanted the Fed to Be Quiet. Instead, It’s as Noisy as Ever.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/kevin-warsh-wanted-the-fed-to-be-quiet-instead-its-as-noisy-as-ever-b2346ca2
The central bank's chairman has made a point of saying less, but most of his colleagues haven’t followed his lead.

Sunday, October 25, 2026

The Decline of Humanities

Does anybody still major in the humanities?
https://spectator.com/article/anybody-still-major-humanities-college/
Charles Lipson:
At every university, big and small, fewer and fewer students are studying English, History, Philosophy, Art History, French literature or Anthropology. Those dwindling numbers mark a striking change in higher education. Not too long ago, English and History were among the most popular majors on campus. Students gravitated to them because they liked the subject matter and found the courses engaging and enriching. Those students weren’t preparing to become professors of Renaissance History or 19th-Century Poetry. They expected to go into business, law, or some related field. Still, they wanted a liberal education before they went out into the working world, and they got it in traditional humanities disciplines. 

A Highly Concentrated Earnings Boom

Two AI Chipmakers Make Up 34% of America’s Earnings Boom
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-earnings-boom-is-heavily-reliant-on-just-a-handful-of-stocks-21decb53
Ten companies—including Nvidia, Micron and other AI giants—account for roughly two-thirds of corporate profit growth.

Saturday, October 24, 2026

Era of Polycrisis

If you feel like everything’s falling apart, you’re probably right
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/10/21/no-happy-ending-in-sight-for-this-global-polycrisis/
From the streets of Paris to the debt markets, there are no happy endings in sight to the world’s many crises. 

Knowledge Transfer – From Asia to USA

The Factory in Phoenix That Could Save American Manufacturing
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/opinion/ai-computer-chips-semiconductor-arizona-industry.html
America is figuring out the trick to reindustrialization, if it can learn the right lessons. 

Decline in Male Labor Force Participation Rate

Why So Many Men Aren’t Working
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/10/job-market-unemployment-men-screentime/689109/
Jobs exist. The trouble lies in finding men who are willing and able to take them.
 
Why men keep dropping out of the labor force: It starts in childhood, when kids see how males around them struggle, economists say
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/why-men-keep-dropping-out-of-the-labor-force-it-starts-in-childhood-when-kids-see-how-males-around-them-struggle-economists-say-204650339.html
 
The stay-at-home boyfriend is now an economic trend as more women than men go to work
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/stay-home-boyfriend-now-economic-120100924.html

Friday, October 23, 2026

A Potential Catalyst for a Market Crash

There May Be More Peril in the U.S. Markets Than Meets the Eye
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/business/economy-2008-financial-crisis.html
It’s not impossible to spot the characteristics of a brewing financial crisis. We can look to 2008 for clues.

This A.I. Boom Looks an Awful Lot Like the Housing Bubble
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/25/opinion/ai-bubble-financial-crisis-lehman.html


The tech ‘death spiral’ that could destroy the AI boom
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/10/24/warning-signs-flash-for-ai-boom-as-risky-debt-piles-up/
Warning lights are flashing as debt-laden data center providers suffer seismic sell-offs.


Either AI or public debt could crash markets. But probably not both
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/10/21/either-ai-or-public-debt-could-crash-markets-but-probably-not-both
If AI stocks collapse, bond yields will fall.
 
The AI industry’s gigantic debts are making investors nervous
https://www.economist.com/business/2026/10/18/the-ai-industrys-gigantic-debts-are-making-investors-nervous
Who will be left to pick up the bill in the event of a crash? 

Related:
The AI bubble could be worse than the dot-com bust by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill - 06/16/26
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5925202-tech-bubble-ai-driven-growth/

The Unpopularity of Tariffs

How Tariffs Became the Most Hated Word in Politics
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/how-tariffs-became-the-most-hated-word-in-politics-eeed7932
President Trump’s tariffs collided with public anxiety over the cost of living. Now his trade legacy is at risk. 

Grad School Loans

That Grad School Loan May Cost You. It's About Time
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/that-grad-school-loan-may-cost-you--it-s-about-time-88933.html
Our higher education system is broken. Families pay a fortune for degrees that do not pay off like they used to. However you feel about the future of advanced degrees, they’re certainly a mispriced asset—a mispricing that started in the market for student loans.
The biggest distortions are in graduate degrees, where students have the largest debt burdens. They represent 25% of borrowers, but account for half of all loans. The government has been the dominant lender here, but the Trump administration is scaling back significantly and creating an opening for private players. This will make graduate education more expensive as students are forced to turn to more costly loans, but that may be a healthy development. 

Reconsidering China Shock

New research tries to defuse the “China shock”
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/10/22/new-research-tries-to-defuse-the-china-shock
An almighty fight over an influential finding. 

Thursday, October 22, 2026

AI and Higher Education

AI Splits the American University in Two
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ai-splits-the-american-university-in-two-2d633630
The technology should be severely restricted for undergraduates, but it’s vital for researchers. 

Fixing Social Security

Five Ideas to Start Fixing Social Security’s Finances
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/how-to-save-social-security-41bd68e5
How different ways to boost revenue or cut spending could change the retirement program.