Monday, April 6, 2026

Iran War - Geopolitics and Strategic Shifts

Electrostates vs. Petrostates
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/23/climate-change-world-order-green-transition-fossil-fuel/
China is building a new green bloc, while the United States is doubling down on oil.

The Iran War Is Making the American Economy More Dominant Than Ever
https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-iran-war-is-making-the-american-economy-more-dominant-than-ever-287f9569
America’s role as a major oil-and-gas exporter tempts President Trump to walk away from the Strait of Hormuz and wield leverage over others.
 
A New Oil Shock Accelerates a Return to Nuclear Power
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/business/nuclear-energy-iran-war.html
Shocks to natural gas supplies are spurring countries in Asia and elsewhere to rethink their rejection of nuclear energy after the 2011 disaster in Fukushima, Japan. 
 
Iran War Effect
Fareed's Take: https://youtu.be/w2FoG5s1WGQ
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/04/03/iran-war-trump-hormuz-mistake/
 
The Iran Shock
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/iran-shock
And the Dangerous Allure of Energy Autarky. 

The West cannot understand Iran
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2026/03/the-west-cannot-understand-iran
Complacent commentators are obscuring the realities of the conflict.

Big Picture View:
The Follies of Predicting War
One excellent contribution to this debate is a recently published book by Phillips Payson O’Brien. In War and Power: Who Wins Wars—and Why, O’Brien, who is a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews in Scotland, reminds us that the outcome of war may indeed be influenced by aspects beyond guns, air power, and the number of soldiers. He argues that a more holistic approach to how military might is usually measured will improve our understanding of who wins wars and why—and potentially even deter states from going to war in the first place.