Friday, September 5, 2025

A Lousy Labor Market

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION — AUGUST 2025
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf



Dismal Jobs Report Fuels Expectations of Faster Rate Cuts
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/jobs-report-fed-interest-rate-cuts-65a8a169
Weak summer hiring has traders betting on consecutive interest-rate cuts through year-end, but inflation risks remain a wild card.


Mounting Deportations Meet Slow Hiring in a ‘Curious Kind of Balance’
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/business/economy/jobs-immigration-deportations-hiring.html
An influx of immigrants helped ease worker shortages, and now their expulsion is helping to mask America’s weakening demand for labor.

The Fed Saw These Jobs Numbers Coming
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-05/bls-jobs-report-the-fed-saw-this-coming
Markets seem to think Friday’s report drastically changes the outlook. But this is essentially what policymakers expected all along.
 
Worker Pessimism Is Part of the US Economy Now
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-05/worker-pessimism-is-part-of-the-us-economy-now
A bounce in job creation won’t fix housing affordability and inflation pressures.

Wall Street's wealth engine powers through job-market anxiety
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-wealth-engine-powers-201913148.html

Wall St retreats from record highs as slowdown fears cloud rate-cut optimism
https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-retreats-record-highs-slowdown-fears-cloud-rate-cut-optimism-2025-09-05/

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My take from May 2025:
Why the Federal Reserve risks falling behind the curve as recession fears rise by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill. May 10, 2025
https://thehill.com/opinion/5292727-data-confusion-market-challenges/