Tuesday, August 12, 2025

End of the Disinflationary Trend?

Inflation is the rate of increase of the general price level of goods and services. Disinflation refers to a deceleration in the rate of inflation (in other words, disinflation occurs when the general price level is still increasing but at a slower pace than before). 

As the chart below indicates, various U.S. CPI-based inflation rates are no longer falling. Instead, they appear to be reaccelerating:


Note: The sticky-price consumer price index (CPI) from the Atlanta Fed is “a weighted basket of items that change price relatively slowly” (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta).

Related:
The Case for Fed Cuts Suddenly Has Some Holes
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-08-12/cpi-christopher-waller-s-case-for-fed-rate-cuts-has-some-holes
The inflation data for July should give Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a monetary policy dove and a favorite to replace Jerome Powell, some pause.